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Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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TonyTheTiger20

TonyTheTiger20

#SOAR
The 2014-2015 Pairwise Predictor is LIVE

NEW! Click the link below to access the Pairwise Predictor online:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/2014/12/15/7398979/PairwisePredictor

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I'm basically going to use this thread as my own personal excel spreadsheet playground. The posters poll will go here each week along with other fun things I'm doing using the spreadsheet I built last year to calculate the Pairwise.

Some things you'll see in here include:

--The weekly USCHO Posters Poll

--A few 'what-ifs' from the week that was (Would Lindenwood be a TUC had they not lost 14-0 to Minnesota? Will a win against Clarkson this weekend be enough to put Cornell at the top of the Pairwise? etc.)

--A conference tournament predictor, similar to what USCHO does on the men's side at the end of the regular season, that will calculate the season-ending Pairwise *exactly* given whatever results you plug in

--Any other fun things you or I can think of that I can run on an Excel spreadsheet

To kick things off, wwhyte asked me last night if it was possible for me to approximate a strength of schedule for each team based on their 2014-2015 schedule and last year's RPI numbers. It was, and I did, and here are the results.

Code: 
[B][I]Conf Rank SOS[/I][/B] (Includes both conf. and non-conf. games)
WCHA 1    0.5168
ECAC 2    0.4998
HEA  3    0.4904
CHA  4    0.4869
  
[B][I]Team               Rank SOS[/I][/B]
St. Lawrence       1    0.5268
St. Cloud State    2    0.5260
Minnesota State    3    0.5254
Bemidji State      4    0.5237
Minnesota-Duluth   5    0.5174
North Dakota       6    0.5174
Ohio State         7    0.5160
Wisconsin          8    0.5092
Princeton          9    0.5057
Dartmouth         10    0.5051
Cornell           11    0.5040
Harvard           12    0.5012
Lindenwood        13    0.5006
Minnesota         14    0.4994
Boston University 15    0.4994
Colgate           16    0.4993
Penn State        17    0.4991
Clarkson          18    0.4988
Northeastern      19    0.4949
Syracuse          20    0.4938
Brown             21    0.4936
Yale              22    0.4934
Quinnipiac        23    0.4932
Maine             24    0.4924
New Hampshire     25    0.4921
Boston College    26    0.4911
Rensselaer        27    0.4904
Providence        28    0.4898
Connecticut       29    0.4886
Union             30    0.4866
RIT               31    0.4785
Robert Morris     32    0.4768
Vermont           33    0.4752
Mercyhurst        34    0.4725

A couple caveats:

--This is a VERY rough approximation, as it's running off last year's rankings, but that's obviously all we have. I could run this off any other ranking people want other than RPI (i.e. Rutter) but that's what I had readily available.
--For games where we don't know the final round matchup (Nutmeg Classic and Beanpot) I assumed that the higher-ranked teams win the first round games.
--Yale has a regular season game against Sacred Heart? I didn't have Sacred Heart's RPI so I just assigned them the same RPI as the last place team, Penn State. It doesn't make much of a difference anyway.

Also St. Lawrence being #1 makes you scratch your head until you realize they play Harvard, Cornell, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac in conference, and play BC, Mercyhurst, Robert Morris, Minnesota, twice *each* out of conference, plus another two with Clarkson.

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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Also St. Lawrence being #1 makes you scratch your head until you realize they play Harvard, Cornell, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac 4x, and play BC, Mercyhurst, Robert Morris, and Minnesota twice *each* out of conference.
Click to expand...
ECAC teams only play each other twice in conference. SLU and Clarkson sometimes add in a couple of extra games with each other out of conference.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ARM said:
ECAC teams only play each other twice in conference. SLU and Clarkson sometimes add in a couple of extra games with each other out of conference.
Click to expand...
Ah, I counted the games against Clarkson and made the mental leap that they all must be the same number. Oops. Well, still haha. That's a brutal schedule.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
That's a brutal schedule.
Click to expand...
It is. As for most brutal stretch, I nominate SCSU. Between Nov. 14 and Dec 6, the Huskies play Minnesota three times and Wisconsin, UMD, and North Dakota twice apiece.

Admittedly, SLU's October is none too shabby.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ARM said:
It is. As for most brutal stretch, I nominate SCSU. Between Nov. 14 and Dec 6, the Huskies play Minnesota three times and Wisconsin, UMD, and North Dakota twice apiece.
Click to expand...
:eek:
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Anyone have any idea what time today the USCHO poll comes out?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

First USCHO poll of the season:
Team (First Place Votes ) Points
1 Minnesota (12) 146
2 Wisconsin 117
3 Boston College 112
4 Harvard ( 1) 98
5 Cornell 94
6 Boston University ( 1) 72
7 Clarkson ( 1) 62
8 North Dakota 46
9 Mercyhurst 35
10 Minnesota-Duluth 16
10 Quinnipiac 16
Others receiving votes: Northeastern 8, Robert Morris 2, Rochester Institute of Technology 1.


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/d-i-womens-poll/#ixzz3E4nXFfex
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Can someone let that voter know that Jack Eichel is going to play on the BU *MEN'S* team?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Considering who did receive first place votes, none for BC does seem a little strange.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Does anybody know who BU is counting on at goalie? Who is supposed to be the starter?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Freshman Erin O'neil is a strong goaltender,sophomore Victoria Hansen had a 3-2 record in play. From what I saw of Hansen in the UVM game she played, she did not play well. Sophomore Mia Becker did not log any game minutes last year.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

sheagle008 said:
Freshman Erin O'neil is a strong goaltender,sophomore Victoria Hansen had a 3-2 record in play. From what I saw of Hansen in the UVM game she played, she did not play well. Sophomore Mia Becker did not log any game minutes last year.
Click to expand...

Yup, Erin O'Neil was on the U18s with Katie Burt who's accelerated to join BC. O'Neil was selected to start in the U18 world final and gets the loss to Canada. Battle of Comm Ave!
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

wwhyte said:
Yup, Erin O'Neil was on the U18s with Katie Burt who's accelerated to join BC. O'Neil was selected to start in the U18 world final and gets the loss to Canada. Battle of Comm Ave!
Click to expand...

You mentioned the BU-Minnesota matchup elsewhere in what I would think was a facetious manner (I really don't know with BC posters anymore) as to the outcome but that will give you a good gauge for sizing up the competition.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

FiveHoleFrenzy said:
You mentioned the BU-Minnesota matchup elsewhere in what I would think was a facetious manner (I really don't know with BC posters anymore) as to the outcome but that will give you a good gauge for sizing up the competition.
Click to expand...

In all seriousness, I'm fascinated to see the result of the BU-Minnesota match and BU-Clarkson series. We'll learn a ton about this year's BU at those games.
 
wwhyte said:
In all seriousness, I'm fascinated to see the result of the BU-Minnesota match and BU-Clarkson series. We'll learn a ton about this year's BU at those games.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how much we'll learn about anyone early in the season. So many teams of the top teams graduated their primary goaltenders: BU, BC, Clarkson, Cornell, Wisconsin. Some of them have kids with a few games of experience, but it can still be an adjustment just in terms of confidence between goalie and team. They may click from day one, some might need a month or two, and others even longer. Meantime, we'll be trying to weigh a small sampling of results and compare a set of moving targets. The kids back from the Olympics are in general going to make more of a difference in scoring goals, not preventing them. Cornell, BU, and BC should have plenty of offense, so they'll win a lot of games on talent alone, but the real test will come later in the season when teams have eliminated most of the flaws in their defensive systems. Until then, I think we'll see more volatility in the results near the top than in the last couple of seasons.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

The other poll pre-season:

http://www.usahockey.com/college

1) Minnesota: (14)
2) Wisconsin: (4)
3) Boston College
4) Harvard
5) Boston University
6) Cornell:
7) Clarkson: (1)
8) North Dakota
9) Mercyhurst
10) Quinnipiac

Others receiving votes: Northeastern; Minnesota Duluth; Robert Morris.

First-place votes in parentheses
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

brookyone said:
The other poll pre-season:

http://www.usahockey.com/college
Click to expand...
Math geek alert! Math geek alert! You have been warned!

Something is not adding up. The total in the USA Today poll only adds up to 1,000 combined voting points. Assuming every voter provides a 1 through 10 ranking with the standard point assignment (#1 = 10 pts, #2 = 9 pts, etc. -> 55 points per voter), a total of 1,000 is not possible given 19 voters... there should be 1,045 points.

I double-checked the USCHO.com poll, and it ties out... 15 voters with 55 voting points per voter = 825 combined voting points.

The only thing that makes sense in my mind is that some voter in the USA Today poll only provided their #1 pick and not any lower position. That would add up to 1,000 points (18 voters with full picks = 990 points + 10 points from the voter who only selected the #1 team).

And why do I have a sneaking suspicion that the odd-ball voter was the person who gave Clarkson their #1 vote?
 
CrazyDave said:
And why do I have a sneaking suspicion that the odd-ball voter was the person who gave Clarkson their #1 vote?
Click to expand...
There was a Clarkson #1 vote in the USCHO poll as well, and I can respect that position. I've thought the same myself in many years. If a team wins the top spot on the ice, shouldn't they lose it on the ice as well? The only thing with Clarkson this year is that it is hardly the same team that it was in March. Still, I have no problem with any voter putting the Golden Knights atop the preseason poll.
 
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