Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I might err on the side of US stocks if you're going to buy on a dip this soon...the rest of the world is still a big question mark at least for awhile longer.

It would also help to look at what sectors remain fairly stable in these sorts of recessions. Utilities don't usually go very far, along with other relatively inelastic products, like tobacco, groceries, and health care insurers. If you want to look abroad, sure Eurasia is volatile, but there are a few places to the south of us that might be worth looking at.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Beta is a decent stat for measuring a stock's tendency to rise and fall with the market, but it doesn't tell you much about the value of the company behind the stock. For instance, a lot of tech stocks have high betas due to the nature of the business and the average dolt's tendency to throw money at tech stocks without knowing anything about them because "T3h Internets are t3h future!1!11!" This does not necessarily make them bad long-term investments.

To truly understand value, you need to do further analysis of the company's financials.

Always sound advice. Given the country seems to once again be going towards a sort of credit crisis, I prefer to look at stocks with little or no long-term debt, especially in the small and mid caps. Cash flow I also find to be very important, also for the same reason. Oh, and as usual, I only pick dividend stocks.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

It would also help to look at what sectors remain fairly stable in these sorts of recessions. Utilities don't usually go very far, along with other relatively inelastic products, like tobacco, groceries, and health care insurers. If you want to look abroad, sure Eurasia is volatile, but there are a few places to the south of us that might be worth looking at.

I think it depends on your risk profile. If you believe this is just a correction, then you want to want to buy a great company with minimal global exposure that just took a significant price hit in the last month or so. Could be in quite a few sectors.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

It would also help to look at what sectors remain fairly stable in these sorts of recessions. Utilities don't usually go very far, along with other relatively inelastic products, like tobacco, groceries, and health care insurers. If you want to look abroad, sure Eurasia is volatile, but there are a few places to the south of us that might be worth looking at.

"Sin stocks", or "vice stocks", do very well most recessions, and there are even fund companies that have setup mutual funds specializing in them. Perhaps surprising, they don't usually perform as well as the market as a whole when times are good. While certain companies within those funds likely do great during boom times, the funds are dragged down a bit by people turning away from their various vices when they're happier. No, Kepler, you will not find those funds offered in the typical corporate 401(k) plan.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I think it depends on your risk profile. If you believe this is just a correction, then you want to want to buy a great company with minimal global exposure that just took a significant price hit in the last month or so. Could be in quite a few sectors.

Or you could just diversify your portfolio. As Kevin O'Leary says, "Diversification is the only free lunch."

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

"Sin stocks", or "vice stocks", do very well most recessions, and there are even fund companies that have setup mutual funds specializing in them. Perhaps surprising, they don't usually perform as well as the market as a whole when times are good. While certain companies within those funds likely do great during boom times, the funds are dragged down a bit by people turning away from their various vices when they're happier. No, Kepler, you will not find those funds offered in the typical corporate 401(k) plan.

Only corporate plan that's any good is the one that goes 100% into SPY.

 

[geezer]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Do you guys know if the numbers in this story are anywhere near accurate?

The U.S. “fully burdened exploration and production “break-even” cost is now $51 per barrel, and falling fast. Furthermore, with hundreds of American oil companies having already paid the exploration lease acquisition costs to accumulate tens of thousands of drilling sites, the production-only break-even cost for positive cash-flow is about $29 a barrel. After tacking on a 9 percent profit, U.S. domestic oil companies are now incentivized to produce domestic oil any time the price is above $32 a barrel.

If it's all true, we're going to see some big changes forthcoming in the middle east oil producer's economies/societies (Saudi Arabia will run out of cash, then what?)

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Do you guys know if the numbers in this story are anywhere near accurate?
If it's all true, we're going to see some big changes forthcoming in the middle east oil producer's economies/societies (Saudi Arabia will run out of cash, then what?)

I really wished we would have done a better job with alternatives and other eco solutions before we exploited this. But what are you gunna do?

 

[geezer]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I really wished we would have done a better job with alternatives and other eco solutions before we exploited this. But what are you gunna do?

It's coming either way, due to rapid tech improvements in solar, wind, and batteries, along with rapid change in social consciousness. The beauty of gradually reigning in OPEC now is that it eases the inevitable transition to green energy rather than creating a crash and rebuild... i.e. it give the Saudis some time to realign their economy. And it keeps energy cheap for all of us while we transition over the next decade.
...Or possibly (likely?) I'm a blind optimist. But I'm sure we've all seen the charts on the comparative costs and the projections of solar's near-future dominance.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

But I'm sure we've all seen the charts on the comparative costs and the projections of solar's near-future dominance.

I haven't. All I ever see are depressing charts that when oil finally goes belly up it's coal, baby, coal.

edit: which will apparently cause the eradication of South America.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I haven't. All I ever see are depressing charts that when oil finally goes belly up it's coal, baby, coal.

edit: which will apparently cause the eradication of South America.

Yeah, but aren't they basically just North America's anus?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Yeah, but aren't they basically just North America's anus?

The Brazilians are the most beautiful humans, so, no.

Seriously, an east coast 8 is a west coast 3, but a west coast 8 is a Brasil 3.

 

[LynahFan]

But I'm sure we've all seen the charts on the comparative costs and the projections of solar's near-future dominance.

Sure have - from snake-oil salesmen looking to make a quick buck. Aluminum siding for the 21st century.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Yeah, but aren't they basically just North America's anus?

Nope, the USA's pile of ****. Mexico is our anus, and Central America is the **** coming out.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

It's coming either way, due to rapid tech improvements in solar, wind, and batteries, along with rapid change in social consciousness. The beauty of gradually reigning in OPEC now is that it eases the inevitable transition to green energy rather than creating a crash and rebuild... i.e. it give the Saudis some time to realign their economy. And it keeps energy cheap for all of us while we transition over the next decade.
...Or possibly (likely?) I'm a blind optimist. But I'm sure we've all seen the charts on the comparative costs and the projections of solar's near-future dominance.

The concern being brought up is that we aren't goign to be touching it for a while, similar to how we were trying to make all of these "green advancements" in the late 70's and early 80's until the Canadian oil boom. Of course, don't you worry, the EPA will do all it can to make fuel as expensive as possible, such as when they blocked the Hyperion refinery in South Dakota.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

The Brazilians are the most beautiful humans, so, no.

Seriously, an east coast 8 is a west coast 3, but a west coast 8 is a Brasil 3.

*sigh* Ok, fine, they're the ****funtimeparts. Everything else is the solid waste disposal plant.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

*sigh* Ok, fine, they're the ****funtimeparts. Everything else is the solid waste disposal plant.

Oh come now, don't you know that ivy league institutions teach you that the ends justify the means?

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Do you guys know if the numbers in this story are anywhere near accurate?
If it's all true, we're going to see some big changes forthcoming in the middle east oil producer's economies/societies (Saudi Arabia will run out of cash, then what?)

I've heard that $22 or $23 is the number if you're in the heart of the Bakken shale play (Stanley/Tioga/New Town). A lot of the "wildcatting" (exploration + production) has stopped out there with the low price. Instead, they are "drilling out" (drilling new wells down to the Sanish and Three Forks levels) on existing well pad sites and not having to add infrastructure (power, local pipelines or tanks for water in or oil out) because it's already there for the first well.

The original plan for most was to find the extents and then drill it out (three levels). The low price flipped the plan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_formation

"Drilling out": For every two square miles you need six well heads to recover everything from the three levels (two wells per level). But you can fit all six well heads on a two acre pad of the two square miles because of horizontal drilling.

 

[geezer]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Sure have - from snake-oil salesmen looking to make a quick buck. Aluminum siding for the 21st century.

I admit I've often been too gullible but in this case... pick your source.
And consider the implications of this.
Admittedly, China will probably lag by a generation, but Slate has also recently claimed that their coal burning is on the decline.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Oh come now, don't you know that ivy league institutions teach you that the ends justify the means?

Dude, did you get wait listed by Dartmouth or something?

There are guys who never get over their high school dumping who have less severe issues than you do with the huit ancien.