What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Almington said:
Germany was the rising European economic power with Great Britain in decline. The U.S. was also a rising economic power but with limited political influence in European affairs and a strong internal political leanings towards isolationalism. We very could be talking about Pax Germania as opposed to a Pax Americana in the last half of the 20th century.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. Germany is still the victim of geography's second-worst joke (the worst being the Levant). Being surrounded by rivals means any expansionism provokes an immediate and lethal reaction. Germany shared the American expansionist ideology rooted in 19th century theories of racial superiority, but whereas we had 2 million square miles to plunder, the Germans immediately run into opposition the moment they start moving outward in any direction. The point of divergence would have to be much farther back for Germany to scour out all the Völkisch poison -- say, a triumph of the liberals in 1848, or even some sort of gradual evolution of the Confederation of the Rhine after Napolean, with German eyes turning towards alliance with the west rather than lebensraum in the east. By the turn of the century Germany was already irrevocably on a course towards self-destruction.
 
Last edited:
Kepler said:
I doubt it. Germany is still the victim of geography's second-worst joke (the worst being the Levant). Being surrounded by rivals means any expansionism provokes an immediate and lethal reaction. Germany shared the American expansionist ideology rooted in 19th century theories of racial superiority, but whereas we had 2 million square miles to plunder, the Germans immediately run into opposition the moment they start moving outward in any direction. The point of divergence would have to be much farther back for Germany to scour out all the Völkisch poison -- say, a triumph of the liberals in 1848, or even some sort of gradual evolution of the Confederation of the Rhine after Napolean, with German eyes turning towards alliance with the west rather than lebensraum in the east. By the turn of the century Germany was already irrevocably on a course towards self-destruction.
Click to expand...

Depends on how far one has to go back to avoid the start of The First World War. Like I said, the argument could be made that Germany would have an economic hold over much of central and Eastern Europe if wide spread war (particularly on the western front) had not started in 1914.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Almington said:
Depends on how far one has to go back to avoid the start of The First World War. Like I said, the argument could be made that Germany would have an economic hold over much of central and Eastern Europe if wide spread war (particularly on the western front) had not started in 1914.
Click to expand...

It makes for many good questions. It will be interesting to see what the Germans do in the EU going forward. It's becoming a case of, "well, you wanted it, now what are you going to do with it?"
 
Last edited:
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Kepler said:
I doubt it. Germany is still the victim of geography's second-worst joke (the worst being the Levant). Being surrounded by rivals means any expansionism provokes an immediate and lethal reaction. Germany shared the American expansionist ideology rooted in 19th century theories of racial superiority, but whereas we had 2 million square miles to plunder, the Germans immediately run into opposition the moment they start moving outward in any direction. The point of divergence would have to be much farther back for Germany to scour out all the Völkisch poison -- say, a triumph of the liberals in 1848, or even some sort of gradual evolution of the Confederation of the Rhine after Napolean, with German eyes turning towards alliance with the west rather than lebensraum in the east. By the turn of the century Germany was already irrevocably on a course towards self-destruction.
Click to expand...
Poland is always available for rent.
 
Last edited:
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the Chinese stock market correction happening. Their various indices are down some +30%, many small cap companies have had trading halted by the central gov't, and now large cap companies are getting hit because of it. A number of financial analysts are worried that it's going to spill into the rest of the global economy. They claim it's not a matter of if, rather how and when. Things could start to get ugly. I'm talking Rosie O'Donnell ugly here, folks.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

St. Clown said:
I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the Chinese stock market correction happening. Their various indices are down some +30%, many small cap companies have had trading halted by the central gov't, and now large cap companies are getting hit because of it. A number of financial analysts are worried that it's going to spill into the rest of the global economy. They claim it's not a matter of if, rather how and when. Things could start to get ugly. I'm talking Rosie O'Donnell ugly here, folks.
Click to expand...

I was just coming here to post the same thing. Frankly, this was long, long overdue. The Chinese economy has been falsely propped up by the government for a long time. The numbers are just not real and eventually it runs out.

Vice did an excellent piece on the ghost towns and the economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trs_udhjWqc
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

St. Clown said:
I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the Chinese stock market correction happening. Their various indices are down some +30%, many small cap companies have had trading halted by the central gov't, and now large cap companies are getting hit because of it. A number of financial analysts are worried that it's going to spill into the rest of the global economy. They claim it's not a matter of if, rather how and when. Things could start to get ugly. I'm talking Rosie O'Donnell ugly here, folks.
Click to expand...

Yeah, its a big issue. No, its not going to wreck the US economy. There may be some spill over. But there are very few products exported to China and much of the correction that is happening there is just that...a correction based on an waay overheated stock market. Remember Europe has been struggling for the last couple of years (and Europe may be 10x the influence on the US economy of China)...and the US has plowed forward like it was nothing. Maybe a struggling Europe + China = Trouble. But based on the performance of the US economy recently, a little cool water may be just what it needs. TBD but if anything, Europe is the big factor here.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

St. Clown said:
I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the Chinese stock market correction happening. Their various indices are down some +30%, many small cap companies have had trading halted by the central gov't, and now large cap companies are getting hit because of it. A number of financial analysts are worried that it's going to spill into the rest of the global economy. They claim it's not a matter of if, rather how and when. Things could start to get ugly. I'm talking Rosie O'Donnell ugly here, folks.
Click to expand...

What the heck does that have to do with the earnings of Bristol MAAAAAAAAAHERS?! :D

Asian markets have fluctuated for years. As much as we get a lot of stuff from China, I don't foresee that becoming an issue.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

FlagDUDE08 said:
What the heck does that have to do with the earnings of Bristol MAAAAAAAAAHERS?! :D

Asian markets have fluctuated for years. As much as we get a lot of stuff from China, I don't foresee that becoming an issue.
Click to expand...

Whatever you say, Sparky.
Merrill Lynch doesn't sound quite so optomistic as you do.
More than 30 percent has been knocked off the value of Chinese shares since mid-June, and for some global investors the fear that China's market turmoil will destabilize the real economy is now a bigger risk than the crisis in Greece.



"Also, the ripple effect from the market correction has yet to show up," wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts in a note. "We expect slower growth, poorer corporate earnings, and a higher risk of a financial crisis."

Commodities markets reflected growing concerns about the broader health of the world's second largest economy, with copper prices falling to a six-year low, Shanghai nickel futures sliding by their 5 percent daily limit, and oil falling toward $56 a barrel, near a three month-low.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I've been waiting for stock market corrections worldwide for about 18 months now. Lots of stuff is overvalued.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
I've been waiting for stock market corrections worldwide for about 18 months now. Lots of stuff is overvalued.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. Based upon comparison to 2007, some are the same or over, like LNCE, but there are some that haven't even come close, like AEO. I am long on each. Will there be a crash? Probably. Just remember that you haven't lost anything until you cash out. Also, for every change in last trade price, there must be a buyer and there must be a seller.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

FlagDUDE08 said:
Not necessarily. Based upon comparison to 2007, some are the same or over, like LNCE, but there are some that haven't even come close, like AEO. I am long on each. Will there be a crash? Probably. Just remember that you haven't lost anything until you cash out. Also, for every change in last trade price, there must be a buyer and there must be a seller.
Click to expand...

I'm not worried, people our age have years to plan yet. I've actually been waiting to take advantage of a correction, before I make additional investments. Hence why I'm starting to get a bit frustrated that it hasn't happened yet.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
I'm not worried, people our age have years to plan yet. I've actually been waiting to take advantage of a correction, before I make additional investments. Hence why I'm starting to get a bit frustrated that it hasn't happened yet.
Click to expand...

Amen to this. Now is the time for conscientious buying into stocks with very low betas and disciplined selling for profit. You only truly lose money if you sell at a loss. Once a bottom is found, high betas look like a better deal.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

If you're like me and know little about stocks, this explains betas. I invest solely in 401(k) and there almost exclusively in index funds, so I had never even heard the term.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

I might err on the side of US stocks if you're going to buy on a dip this soon...the rest of the world is still a big question mark at least for awhile longer.
 
Re: Frayed Ends: Business, Economics, and Tax Policy 3.0

Kepler said:
If you're like me and know little about stocks, this explains betas. I invest solely in 401(k) and there almost exclusively in index funds, so I had never even heard the term.
Click to expand...

Beta is a decent stat for measuring a stock's tendency to rise and fall with the market, but it doesn't tell you much about the value of the company behind the stock. For instance, a lot of tech stocks have high betas due to the nature of the business and the average dolt's tendency to throw money at tech stocks without knowing anything about them because "T3h Internets are t3h future!1!11!" This does not necessarily make them bad long-term investments.

To truly understand value, you need to do further analysis of the company's financials.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top