Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Regarding the House, its 25 seats. The Republicans didn't add many seats in redistricting, they basically adopted a strategy of shoring up what they already had in places like Ohio and Virginia and had to comply with Voting Rights laws in other places like Texas forcing a 2-2 split in the 4 new seats there. With Dems expecting to win a bunch of seats in both CA and IL Romney can't afford to get blown out and be a drag on the dozens of freshman lawmakers out there. Not saying at all than Dems are favored to retake the House. What I am saying is if The Mittster loses on a level approaching McCain's drubbing The Boner's grip on the Speakership isn't as "firm" as some would like to think....

These are good points but I think the Republicans' bigger problem is how weak the 112th freshmen are. Whenever there is an ideological wave election, like 2010, a lot of deadwood is washed up on the beach that the next wave just carries back out to sea. There was a great study (sorry, can't find right now) that showed the freshmen Reps elected in 1994 had one of the shortest mean incumbencies before losing in Congressional history, all the more interesting because there was no counter wave against them, they just eroded quickly because they were so bad. The 2010 frosh sure look like that kind of a group.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Trying to find where I said that Obama was the one suggesting it. Nope, I didn't.

I don't expect you to clarify. Cause the fringe is never capable of defending its positions. Never.

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Unless the Dems grow a pair and remove the 60 requirement for cloture. It's just a procedural rule the Senate votes on at the beginning of each session, passed by simple majority. IIRC it used to be 67. There is absolutely no reason is can't be a simple majority.

The same is true for anonymous holds, which are abused by members of both parties. They could simply remove that from the Senate rules at the beginning of the session.

There is nothing systemically wrong with the Senate that a simple majority of the Senate could not fix on one vote.

The majority has never done it before, by the minority has never issued such a flagrant provocation before. The closest we've come was on nominee appointments, but now the minority is doing it on all Senate business, and that has to end, regardless of which party controls the body.

I think this will come to a head in the event of a SCOTUS opening especially if it changes the ideological makeup on the court.

Beyond that though, there's not a lot of big legislative efforts that a second Obama administration needs to pass.

Budget matters such as the Grand Bargain can be handled through reconciliation and will depend a lot on what kind of deal the House can live with in exchange for some extension of the Bush tax cuts. The party really does have everything riding on Romney being elected because otherwise doing nothing puts in place two Democratic priorities of raising taxes on the rich plus big defense cuts.

The only thing I can think of is the DREAM Act. Again, if Romney loses in part because yet again Hispanics voted Democratic 2 to 1, one would think even for purely selfish reasons the GOP would try to get this passed to improve their standing with these voters. Everybody seems to agree that military service = citizenship so the beef I guess is over college graduation. Stipulate a degree in an area of need (medical, engineering, basketball during Olympic years, etc) gets you permanent residency and that should solve the problem.

Not sure what else is still outstanding after that.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Not sure what else is still outstanding after that.

The Senate votes on a lot more than things that you can use reconciliation for. Plus, we sent Obama to DC to do a lot more than he's accomplished so far. If the GOP holds the House nothing happens obviously, but if the general election turned into a landslide and the Dems managed to eek out the House, then they could consider:

+ financial re-regulation (the most critical of all, before we get 2008'ed again)
+ energy / environmental policy
+ education (particularly retraining)
+ immigration (as you mentioned)
+ minimum wage / workers' rights
+ Head Start / breaks for working parents

In addition, he could do things about campaign finance reform, internet freedom, and personal privacy against the encroaching Security State, but I don't trust this administration on those issues and I'd rather they did nothing there.

40 in the Senate could block all of that, with their enablers in the conservative media turning every vote into a Koch/Norquist talking point (until it's time for the military budget, obviously).

And then, as you alluded, there's the Court. Imagine what would happen if Scalia was called to heaven (or, well, you know) during an Obama second term. The entire Right-wing Whinery would demand that the Senate hold the US hostage. We'd probably have any nominee stonewalled. That would be an actual Constitutional crisis. Nobody needs that.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Unless the Dems grow a pair and remove the 60 requirement for cloture.

That would be taking a big risk, and I don't think they have it in them to pull something like that. If they did, rest assured the GOP would retaliate and ram a bunch of crap through the moment they regain majorities in both chambers.

Oh, and your mention of "financial re-regulation" as being a legislative priority is humorous because I could have sworn the Dem Congress passed something like that just a couple years ago.

I would add "infrastructure improvement" to that list of yours - and put it at the top. A substantial amount needs to be spent on upgrading the power grid, and our road and bridge system is in a comical state of disrepair. Who knew this system would lead to the building of many roads and then ignoring their maintenance?

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

if the general election turned into a landslide and the Dems managed to eek out the House, then they could consider:

+ education (particularly retraining)

What? the 48 different Federal job training programs already in place aren't enough? and you want to add more without fixing any of the existing ones first? I'm sure "just one more" will be great, even though none of the prior 48 attempts seem to be working......

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

I excluded energy policy on purpose. Simply put cheap natural gas is going to do a lot of his job for him. I saw a headline to this effect today in fact. All Obama need do is keep up EPA rules (which the SCOTUS has declined to curb their power to do so) regarding coal fired power plants as well as car gas mileage efficiency and he'll get to the lower emissions everybody's looking for.

Financial regulation is done. No need to pass anymore laws. Implement the one that is there and call it a day.

The other stuff is going to be tough in an age of austerity no matter what the makeup of Congress.

EDIT: I do concur with Fishy about we don't need any more education laws at this point. Its more a matter of managing what's already in place.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

I don't expect you to clarify. Cause the fringe is never capable of defending its positions. Never.

Why should I bother to defend it when you decline to attack my point and instead just call me names?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

That would be taking a big risk, and I don't think they have it in them to pull something like that. If they did, rest assured the GOP would retaliate and ram a bunch of crap through the moment they regain majorities in both chambers.

I understand that. I'm not advocating it as a way to get Dem measures through. I'm advocating it as a way to reform Congress. The protection of minority rights is not the same thing as a minority being able to stop Congress dead in its tracks for years at a time. It doesn't work anymore, because people don't want to compromise anymore. So the solution is to let the checks and balances of the three branches operate the way Madison wrote it out.

Oh, and your mention of "financial re-regulation" as being a legislative priority is humorous because I could have sworn the Dem Congress passed something like that just a couple years ago.

Not at all, that "reform" was garbage. My first draft actually said "real financial reform" -- I guess I should have left it that way. Restore Glass-Steagall, break up too big to fail, put stuffer criminal penalties in place for securities fraud. Recapture the economy from the banksters.

I would add "infrastructure improvement" to that list of yours - and put it at the top. A substantial amount needs to be spent on upgrading the power grid, and our road and bridge system is in a comical state of disrepair. Who knew this system would lead to the building of many roads and then ignoring their maintenance?

I had it but lopped it off since it's an approps measure that actually falls under reconciliation. The only reason it's an issue at all is the Tea Baggers don't understand the consequences of what they signed.

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Regarding cloture they need to back to the good old fashioned days of somebody yakking 24 hours straight if they wanted to launch a real filibuster.

Kep I do take issue with people shortselling Obama's accomplishments. Passing health care and financial regulation is a big $%$ing deal. Ending Iraq War and shoring up Afghanistan so we can get the h e ll out of there is a big deal. Bagging OBL's sorry @ ss as well as most of his pals is huge. Saving the auto industry also.

What he needs to do now is 1) implement health care which will happen if re-elected, 2) force Grand Bargain which will also happen if re-elected or tax rates mercifully go back to Clinton era levels which they should anyway, 3) Immigration bill, and 4) close Gitmo.

1 & 2 will happen if he wins, 3 is possible and I don't know if 4 will happen now and he deserves blame for taking this long on that. Just put them on military trail and close the freakin' place already.

Finally I would like to see comprehensive energy policy reform but I'm not sure if he ran on a promise to do that. I remember cap & trade which is more limited than what I want to see (energy independence) but again I don't recall him running on that idea.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Regarding cloture they need to back to the good old fashioned days of somebody yakking 24 hours straight if they wanted to launch a real filibuster.

They should have to stand, too.

Those guys are all over 70. I'd pay to see that.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

I would add "infrastructure improvement" to that list of yours - and put it at the top. A substantial amount needs to be spent on upgrading the power grid, and our road and bridge system is in a comical state of disrepair.

Are you insane? Oh, it's you. Never mind.

But "infrastructure improvement" sounds too much like "stimulus" and a "job-killer" and will cost hundreds of billions of dollars so that can't possibly be permitted to pass.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Fun to listen to Rush today and listen to him cry about how Romney was being "Swift Boated" (if that isn't the poster definition of irony I don't know what is).

And he cried and cried and cried about how everyone blamed Bush was Kerry was being swift boated and now everyone's blaming Romney. Conservatives just never get a fair shake in the media *cry*.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Fun to listen to Rush today and listen to him cry about how Romney was being "Swift Boated" (if that isn't the poster definition of irony I don't know what is).

And he cried and cried and cried about how everyone blamed Bush was Kerry was being swift boated and now everyone's blaming Romney. Conservatives just never get a fair shake in the media *cry*.

Rush gives "blubbering" a whole new dimension.

 

[pirate]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Hope you're not talking about me...never said its the 'only issue we need to solve'. I said 'challenges come from income inequality' and the country could be better positioned...and that it was difficult to implement because its important we continue to reward those generating huge value to society.

Your solution is an example where the remedy is faar worse than the disease.

No, not directed at you...just my take on the "the problem is income inequality" chorus. Your post just prompted the thought. If that is the only issue facing us, why is my solution worse?

What we have today is the most complicated method possible to generate $11,500 of annual welfare benefits to recipients. Nobody could think that the government does this for free...so, eliminate the checks and offices, set people up with accounts and debit cards and auto deposit the money each month.

Why try to figure out who has this need or that...just give everybody the minimum salary and let them control their use of it. We've all heard people whine about welfare mothers (if that behavior exists)...there would be no incentive to have more kids if your income was fixed at $48k and nobody could argue someone can't live on $48k..because millions of people already do.

Get the government out of the housing business, give people the money and let them decide where to live...the only reason to have all the government support infrastructure is if what you provide still doesn't suffice. Just provide the income and there is no need for school breakfasts, housing etc.

By providing enough for people to only qualify for poverty level, the government sustains the need for programs for people at the poverty level.

Anybody would agree that at some point if the total number of aid provided rose high enough, it would require a more efficient method of delivery. If 80% of the population required government assistance the challenge of delivering that aid gets more and more expensive. It requires a quantum change in the model.

I submit it would be cheaper to do this and promote better accountability on the part of recipients.

This reduces the size of government and increases the amount of aid to needy people. How is that worse?

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Yeah, I think the knuckledragger chorus is going to have a lot of trouble with this campaign. As I've said before, we're playing to win. Republicans always expect to be running against Mike Dukakis, a guy unwilling to defend himself against attacks, let alone launch his own down and dirty ones. By the time the Dems are done with him, Mittens is gonna wish he was born poor.

The amusing thing is its only going to get worse. Wait until the Obama campaign whips out the person who's family fell apart and spouse starting hitting the bottle, lost their health insurance and died of a preventable disease after Bain laid them off and sent the jobs to China. Oh, and they were loyal Republicans too. I'd also expect one of these people to be one of the audience members who gets to ask a question when they hold of the debates in that hokey format.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

As I've said before, we're playing to win. Republicans always expect to be running against Mike Dukakis, a guy unwilling to defend himself against attacks, let alone launch his own down and dirty ones. By the time the Dems are done with him, Mittens is gonna wish he was born poor.

My Dad is a ten thousand year old Reagan Democrat. He used to say a party that couldn't stand up to Ralph Reed sure as hell couldn't stand up to the Russians or the Chinese. I strongly suspect Obama's "Chicago Way" is going to win back a lot of older guys who just hated the sniveling fern bar "I'm OK, You're OK" Democratic party. The Republicans are freaking out like a drunk wife beater whose spouse finally hit back once. "Hey -- that aint allowed!!!"

 

[mookie1995]

Financial regulation is done. No need to pass anymore laws. Implement the one that is there and call it a day. .

I'd bring back glass steagall

 

[Craig P.]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Regarding cloture they need to back to the good old fashioned days of somebody yakking 24 hours straight if they wanted to launch a real filibuster.

Maybe some combination of that and some variety of quota on number of filibusters would allow a happy medium of letting a sufficiently large minority make a principled stand or two without grinding the whole business of the chamber to a halt.

 

[busterman62]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Republicans always expect to be running against Mike Dukakis, a guy unwilling to defend himself against attacks, let alone launch his own down and dirty ones.

So that's what that whole "Change" thing was about. I get it now.