Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

in fairness, if Romney takes NC, VA, and FL, that could be a sign of overall strength that translates to some level of success in other battleground states

Of course, but that's kind of like saying "it's important for the pitcher to retire the 8th hitter he faces in an inning." If that's the context, the story's already written.

Put it this way -- does Romney's election depend on WI? Sure, taking WI would presage (postsage?) a good performance in OH and PA, but it's those states that matter, not the boundary case above them.

If there is a state that Romney MUST win it's FL.

If there is a state that Obama MUST win it's CO.

But I don't recommend the opponents going after those states as first priority.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Tell that to the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of heterosexual couples, including me, who went to the courthouse. that's a civil union. we've had heterosexual civil unions for centuries.

are you trying to tell me I'm not married merely because we stood in front of a judge instead of a priest, minister, imam, shaman, or rabbi?

civil unions provide spousal survivor's benefits, state and federal inheritance benefits, etc. etc. from a legal point of view, a civil union is marriage.

You are just flat out wrong here. ALL civil unions are functionally the same as marriage for every legal element.



You cannot force churches, mosques, synagogs, or temples, to conduct a sacramental ceremony to unite same-sex couples in the US because that would be state interference in religion. That's not a "civil" rights issue it is a religious issue and the state has no business being involved in it.





Think of it this way: for society, civil union = legal marriage; however, civil union may or may not = sacramental marriage, depending upon the religion involved.


you may not like it, however, there is no denial of any civil rights involved at all.

So what you're telling me is that any gay couple in the United States is free to walk in to a courthouse and have a civil union performed by a judge?

Or are you telling me that my state issued MARRIAGE license just has a really bad typo on it?

Do you and your wife refer to yourselves as a married couple, or a civil unioned couple? Because I have never heard anyone use the latter.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

So what you're telling me is that any gay couple in the United States is free to walk in to a courthouse and have a civil union performed by a judge?

In New York, CT, VT, and several other states, yes. Depends upon state law.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

In New York, CT, VT, and several other states, yes. Depends upon state law.

And there's the rub. A civil right should not - can not - vary from state to state.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

In New York, CT, VT, and several other states, yes. Depends upon state law.

And do these states issue seperate civil union licenses for those that are civil unioned in court houses, and marriage licenses for those to be married in a church?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

And there's the rub. A civil right should not - can not - vary from state to state.

Devil's advocate argument: gun rights vary by state.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Devil's advocate argument: gun rights vary by state.

Not at the most basic level.

 

[MinnFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

And there's the rub. A civil right should not - can not - vary from state to state.

Since when is there a RIGHT to marriage? At the gov't level is a privledge that is granted by the state gov't.

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I'm curious what others on either side think, but for me the bellweather state that I'm going to be watching on election night is New Hampshire.

Putting aside Indiana for a minute, its the most friendly turf for Romney to be able to flip from Obama to himself. Not only because he vacations there and lives in the state next door, but because NH Repubs are the old timey fiscal conservative/social libertarians who you would think would be drawn to The Mittster's tax policy but dismiss his new found conversion to right wing social policy as just window dressing for the wackos down South.

So, if he loses NH and takes a Congressional seat down with him in the process, I don't see how he then goes and wins in Ohio. The flip side is if he does take New Hampster, he breaks the firewall that Obama has set up (NV, IA, CO, NM and NH plus the Kerry states gives him 272 I believe). Yeah there's always the possibility of putting Wisconsin or Michigan in play, but as I think most of us have stated already if Romney is threatening to win those states he most likely will have the 270 electoral votes he needs in his pocket long before those states are called.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

And there's the rub. A civil right should not - can not - vary from state to state.

While that may be true in the long run, it's not always true in transitional periods. Things evolve over time. Slaves had no civil rights before 1863; women had the right to vote in state elections in some states before the 19th amendment but not the right to vote in federal elections.

Civil unions for same-sex couples today are in the same kind of transitional state that women's right to vote was in the late 19th and early 20th century: the law varied by states, gradually spread from a few to many and finally to all.

I have no horse in this race; I find civil unions to be a fine transitional compromise to allow a majority to build and do not oppose them at all. I merely think that trying to use government compulsion to force religious institutions into sacramental recognition of same-sex marriage is prohibited by the First Amendment. I don't even care if same-sex civil unions are formally called marriage, either.

Civil union = marriage as far as states are concerned.

By the way, the federal government does not have any constitutional authority to regulate people; that power is reserved to the states. I think the Defense of Marriage Act "should" be found unconstiutional. The federal government also "should" not be able to mandate anything about marriage at all, one way or the other.

Relax, folks, it took women nearly 40 years from the time that they first received the right to vote in state elections until the 19th amendment was ratified; civil unions for same-sex marriage so far seems to be well ahead of that pace.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Not a big surprise. A pretty good jobs report. Not a big surprise as I figured that it might be dressed up a bit.

Having said that 163k jobs is good for Obama. Expectations were for 100k and here's only a couple more jobs reports left. This drives the markets where the Dow is now approaching a true doubling under Obama's watch. All will help him.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

No, I know. I was posting this in support of your argument. Uptown is pretty much the only place I see single gear bikes and people wearing flannel (among those not living in outstate Minnesota where it's actually rather comfortable.)

Then you arent looking. Hipsters are everywhere I have seen them in NE and many a bar in St. Paul. Uptown stopped being the Mecca for Hipsters right about the time I moved here. Now it is just infested with bike riders who never follow the rules of the road even though we gave them a friggin lane on the roads.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I'm curious what others on either side think, but for me the bellweather state that I'm going to be watching on election night is New Hampshire.

Putting aside Indiana for a minute, its the most friendly turf for Romney to be able to flip from Obama to himself. Not only because he vacations there and lives in the state next door, but because NH Repubs are the old timey fiscal conservative/social libertarians who you would think would be drawn to The Mittster's tax policy but dismiss his new found conversion to right wing social policy as just window dressing for the wackos down South.

So, if he loses NH and takes a Congressional seat down with him in the process, I don't see how he then goes and wins in Ohio. The flip side is if he does take New Hampster, he breaks the firewall that Obama has set up (NV, IA, CO, NM and NH plus the Kerry states gives him 272 I believe). Yeah there's always the possibility of putting Wisconsin or Michigan in play, but as I think most of us have stated already if Romney is threatening to win those states he most likely will have the 270 electoral votes he needs in his pocket long before those states are called.

IMO New Hampshire is the most interesting. The way the state had been performing...ten years ago, one would have predicted a Mass candidate like Romney would have been a landslide in NH. But surprisingly, he doesn't look like he'll even win there.

I think THE state bounces around...but ultimately if there's one comes back to Ohio. States like FL and even VA are on the fence but Romney needs additional wins to get it done. So it comes down to those states that could be peeled away from Obama...Ohio. Ohio is not North East, its not an isolated mountain state or the deep south. It has a bit of every thing...urban, rural, blue collar, big city Cleveland and conservatives in the style of the deep south. Perhaps its also a bit symbolic (or maybe just for me)...but its solid upper midwestern/Big Ten country and therefore may mean a bit more for an IL incumbent.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I think NH is interesting without signifying anything about the rest of the election. Romney running away from his MA record didn't hurt him in MA since nothing there would have made a difference. NH has that weird resentment of MA and southern tier NH is dominated by Boston diaspora who fled taxes and The Element; for those people Romney is like crack.

NH could go either way, but for reasons that don't translate anywhere else.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Not a big surprise. A pretty good jobs report. Not a big surprise as I figured that it might be dressed up a bit.

Having said that 163k jobs is good for Obama. Expectations were for 100k and here's only a couple more jobs reports left. This drives the markets where the Dow is now approaching a true doubling under Obama's watch. All will help him.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent. Not a clear winner or loser for either side. It's very possible the economy won't see a major improvement or decline prior to the election. Nice try to spin it though.


Agreed on Ohio. It's always a huge bellwether in elections, particularly ones that are clearly contested.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Since when is there a RIGHT to marriage? At the gov't level is a privledge that is granted by the state gov't.

That's a bizarre position to take for someone who purports to be conservative. Since when is the government in the business of granting privileges?

Civil marriage is a legal contract. Would it be constitutional for a state government to say that it would grant LLC partnerships only to pairs of opposite genders? Why should a marriage partnership be any different?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent. Not a clear winner or loser for either side. It's very possible the economy won't see a major improvement or decline prior to the election. Nice try to spin it though.


Agreed on Ohio. It's always a huge bellwether in elections, particularly ones that are clearly contested.

Just saying what happened...I even said it was prob dressed up a bit. But if you're wondering what folks think...the dow is up 200 pts today. Its all in the WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444320704577566790169187310.html

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Not a clear winner or loser for either side. It's very possible the economy won't see a major improvement or decline prior to the election.

Agree with this.

And in the absence of real numbers, it will come down to perception which is why both campaigns are hyperactively trying to out-frame one another right now. The ads during the Olympics have been a hoot (living next to a battleground state is fun).

I think today was a tiny "victory" for Obama because the whole Echo Chamber was ginned up to ream him if we had had another flat quarter. But that victory won't even last past dinnertime -- by then the next gaffe or accusation or handler's comment will have seized the media magpie's attention.

I'm surprised the Obama people haven't run ads about this. During the 2008 campaign every Republican hack was squealing that Obama would give us double digit inflation. The current inflation rate is 1.7 percent.

 

[MinnFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

That's a bizarre position to take for someone who purports to be conservative. Since when is the government in the business of granting privileges?

Civil marriage is a legal contract. Would it be constitutional for a state government to say that it would grant LLC partnerships only to pairs of opposite genders? Why should a marriage partnership be any different?

I've got no problem with the gov't getting out of peoples' business, but they are the ones with the tax code. Get rid of the deductions and lower the rate for everone I would be perfectly happy.

The rationale for the gov't subsidizing marriage is that it perpetuates the continuation of that society. I've got no problem with the gov't purely going to cival unions, but right now a gay man and a straight man have the exact same "right" to marry a woman.

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I'm surprised the Obama people haven't run ads about this. During the 2008 campaign every Republican hack was squealing that Obama would give us double digit inflation. The current inflation rate is 1.7 percent.

I'm guessing the Obama camp thinks they've got some more salient points to drive home given how Romney's positioned himself. As people still mostly blame Bush for the current economic problems (whether that's true or not) and Romney plans on re-implementing the economic policy from 2001 to mid 2008 (as in right before the financial crash) the ads I expect to see is Romney = GWB Part 3 or something to that effect.