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Election Day 2025

Kepler said:
Cherry on top, to end the night: Democrat Michael Cashman won the special election for New York Assembly District 115 with a 30-point Democratic swing.
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That seat was already blue, so dems held it, but that district is the heart and soul of Elise Stefanik’s district. If that swing holds up, she’s in deep doo-doo in two years when she’s up for Governor.
 
jericho said:
That seat was already blue, so dems held it, but that district is the heart and soul of Elise Stefanik’s district. If that swing holds up, she’s in deep doo-doo in two years when she’s up for Governor.
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If the bitch isn’t dead upon arrival already, being a Republican in New York, then Democrats are fucked harder than I thought.
Last night was great, but it’s a tiny drop in the bucket. Many of these same voters didn’t show up last year when it really mattered, or worse, voted Republican…and they could again.
I don’t trust the American voting public. Too short of attention spans and far too ignorant. When shit doesn’t change quickly, because in politics, building shit or repairing shit torn down by Republicans doesn’t happen overnight, they’ll blame Democrats, and then either stay home or vote for Republicans, like they did in 2024, on the economy. Tale as old as time.
 
Kepler said:
VA House of Delegates flipped 13 seats to blue: from 51-49 to 64-36 in the Old Dominion, the heart of the GOP Racist Southern Strategy. Only 8 of those seats were supposed to be even remotely in play. I believe the end of the spectrum there were > 14-point swings.
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Who would have thought that DOGE'ing or Gov't Shutdown-ing half the state population would be a bad move?
 
The main thing that stands out to me about last night is how far the Hispanic vote shifted from 2024. I guess people do change their votes after a Leopard Eats Their Face.
 
Kepler said:
Where did you see that? I saw only 25% of VA thinks Youngkin did a good job as Gov.
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It was on the MSNBC ticker early before polls closed. Maybe they could’ve flipped Youngkin’s numbers by accident. I didn’t know VA didn’t allow consecutive terms. Thought he bowed out because he didn’t like his chances.
 
Kepler said:
Men are only irrelevant if they don't break as large R as women do D. It is just as important to keep men around 50/50 as it is to run up the score with women.

There will always be huge shit piles of Biff Tannens out there and always will be, in every state, in every district. They are an invasive species throughout the world -- the bullies, the failures, the cowards. In a word, the Dumps. The goal is to hang them around the GOP neck for the rest of American history.

Make Dump the face of American conservatism forever.
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The only way men break R+SIXTY is if we literally start gelding them by law. Sixty, kep. This is approaching black D voter levels of partisan swing.
 
Jimjamesak said:
The California Proposition winning by such a huge margin might well be the most important and significant result of the night. It was a loud and clear message by the people to Democrats in blue states of “fuck this bullshit, take off the gloves and fight!” It’s a massive green light to go ahead and fight dirty.
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Bingo. Fucking bingo.

I have yet to see a sharper rebuke of chick schumer and his cadre.
 
LynahFan said:
Playing with fire if you go that far. Although with southwestern VA being what it is, you could probably make that 1 GOP district end up R+80….

Edit: Lee and Scott counties “only” went R+72 and +70, respectively, so I was a little off, but not that much
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Yeah, we’re about to see what happens when gerrymanders go bad in Texas. Hispanic voters in the largest counties of PA, VA, and I thought I saw NYC all showed margins for D greater than even Biden 2020.

At some point the cracking is a bad, greedy strategy. I’d much rather see full stacking. This wave will recede eventually. Don’t let it drag you out to sea.
 
psych said:
Last night was great, but it’s a tiny drop in the bucket. Many of these same voters didn’t show up last year when it really mattered, or worse, voted Republican…and they could again.
I don’t trust the American voting public. Too short of attention spans and far too ignorant. When shit doesn’t change quickly, because in politics, building shit or repairing shit torn down by Republicans doesn’t happen overnight, they’ll blame Democrats, and then either stay home or vote for Republicans, like they did in 2024, on the economy. Tale as old as time.
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True, but the one thing even the dumbest and most inert voter is motivated by is their belly. Neo-feudalism destroys jobs and cuts benefits that the least politically conscious depend on for their beer and Slim Jims. The sight of the gallows focuses the mind.

Dump is Dump and will only make things worse. The billionaires want a broken desperate serf population so all the suffering and hunger are a feature not a bug. So the Right will double down on their policies. They will mash the race, gender, xenophobe buttons even harder. But we are seeing that even the Average Man is more self-absorbed than he is stupid. If he's not getting his Government Cheese he will throw the bums out.
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
The only way men break R+SIXTY is if we literally start gelding them by law. Sixty, kep. This is approaching black D voter levels of partisan swing.
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I do not believe women writ large will be dependably +60. Maybe women in the West Village.

There are vast amber waves of Karens stretching throughout this land, their bright blue eyes focused on the Bible and their pure blonde hair blowing like corn silk in the dewy Prairie morning. I'll be in my bunk.
 
LynahFan said:
Playing with fire if you go that far. Although with southwestern VA being what it is, you could probably make that 1 GOP district end up R+80….

Edit: Lee and Scott counties “only” went R+72 and +70, respectively, so I was a little off, but not that much!
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Sure I was pushing for effect. I want us to keep our safe seats, then make some of theirs 50/50, and win it on the field. At 6-5 we can probably push 2 into our win column. If you look at a map of VA the entire SW corner is Mississippi. Happily, rural dumbshit places also have no population.
 
I see some serious sandbagging in here this morning...not by Kepler but you know who you are :)
 
bsky.app

Kevin Morris (@kevintmorris.bsky.social)

Between 2020 and 2024, no New Jersey county moved further right than Passaic County (11pts). At 43% it's also the most the most-Latino county in the state, and is among the least-white overall. Last night, it moved 18pts to the left, surpassed only by Hudson County (the second-most Latino county)
bsky.app bsky.app

I guess the Giant Gut Gestapo isnt as popular as the GOP thought.

Mike Johnson has some serious cope going on this morning.
 
Kepler said:
Sure I was pushing for effect. I want us to keep our safe seats, then make some of theirs 50/50, and win it on the field. At 6-5 we can probably push 2 into our win column. If you look at a map of VA the entire SW corner is Mississippi. Happily, rural dumbshit places also have no population.
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Marc Elias says it should go to 10-1...but he might be a bit giddy since he is fighting all of this harder than anyone.
 
Kepler said:
True, but the one thing even the dumbest and most inert voter is motivated by is their belly. Neo-feudalism destroys jobs and cuts benefits that the least politically conscious depend on for their beer and Slim Jims. The sight of the gallows focuses the mind.

Dump is Dump and will only make things worse. The billionaires want a broken desperate serf population so all the suffering and hunger are a feature not a bug. So the Right will double down on their policies. They will mash the race, gender, xenophobe buttons even harder. But we are seeing that even the Average Man is more self-absorbed than he is stupid. If he's not getting his Government Cheese he will throw the bums out.
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Except none of those people showed up to vote last night. Trump voters stayed home because they already won. Trump is still in office, destroying America as we speak. They’ll be back in 2028 to vote for him again. The lies they’re being told will, as always, work.
Last night was Democrats showing up in force, because they fucked around and found out last year. We can hope the same demographic shows up to vote when it matters far more next year.
 
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