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Election Day 2021

If current results hold, the Va. lower chamber will be split 50/50. The Dems will retain the Senate since it wasn't up this year.
 
Handyman said:
Yes but you think. They don't.

Look I get what you are saying but we live in a society where thousands think the Kennedys are showning up at the Stones concert to give Trump back his power and that vaccines have Lucifer inside them so we can track them and give them better 5G. Don't act like a Democrat don't assume the majority of the people know or care about anything but what they are told to care about.
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Look, I get there are some crazy people out there. But I firmly believe these types of elections are won or lost principally on two factors: the quality of the candidates and something one of the candidates either said or did or proposes that rings a bell with a big chunk of voters.

I think back to Jesse Ventura's win here in Minnesota. First, he was running against a couple of unimpressive candidates. Second, he was running on things like eliminating the high car registration fees and just fixing them at $50 or something. An extremely small and weird issue, but people liked the sound of it. Just strange little things like that.

IIRC, out in Virginia Youngkin was claiming he was going to do away with certain regressive fees or taxes. With those types of things people will be like, "yeah, that'll put a few bucks in my pocket" and they'll vote for the guy.

McAuliffe was running against Donald Trump, which at first glance is great because Trump got kicked there last year. Problem is, Trump wasn't in the race against McAuliffe.

If you are a candidate for governor, you need to figure out what people in your state are angry about or unhappy with or really want, then figure out your message around those things. Yeah, some of them may mirror things going on elsewhere in the country, but you need to figure out exactly how it's playing in your state.
 
unofan said:
Well, the rational people won my local races, so that's something.
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My mayoral candidate lost, so instead we get the one who whined about proposed revisions to the city charter being "woke". On the plus side, the proposal for a general revision of the city charter did pass (barely, by 55 votes).
 
No. They're won and lost on fear. And Republicans have figured out how to make everyone afraid of things they shouldn't be afraid of (CRT) and not afraid of things they should be afraid of (Jan 6th). Why did "defund the police" get so much traction? Cause it made everyone afraid. Why did CRT get so much traction? Cause it made everyone afraid. Why did January 6th get zero traction? Cause no one is afraid of it.
 
SJHovey said:
Look, I get there are some crazy people out there. But I firmly believe these types of elections are won or lost principally on two factors: the quality of the candidates and something one of the candidates either said or did or proposes that rings a bell with a big chunk of voters.

I think back to Jesse Ventura's win here in Minnesota. First, he was running against a couple of unimpressive candidates. Second, he was running on things like eliminating the high car registration fees and just fixing them at $50 or something. An extremely small and weird issue, but people liked the sound of it. Just strange little things like that.

IIRC, out in Virginia Youngkin was claiming he was going to do away with certain regressive fees or taxes. With those types of things people will be like, "yeah, that'll put a few bucks in my pocket" and they'll vote for the guy.

McAuliffe was running against Donald Trump, which at first glance is great because Trump got kicked there last year. Problem is, Trump wasn't in the race against McAuliffe.

If you are a candidate for governor, you need to figure out what people in your state are angry about or unhappy with or really want, then figure out your message around those things. Yeah, some of them may mirror things going on elsewhere in the country, but you need to figure out exactly how it's playing in your state.
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So, the party out of power in the White House has won 11 of the last 12 Virginia Governor’s races. You think it comes down to local issues? Wouldn’t it be more likely that voter intensity of the opposite party, regardless of the issues or candidate, is powering those wins?
In one of the highest turnouts for a Virginia Governor’s race, Republicans won comfortably. Compared to 2020, 300,000 fewer Republican votes, and 800,000 fewer Democratic votes. Someone didn’t show up. You think Democrats didn’t show up over local issues?
 
ScoobyDoo said:
No. They're won and lost on fear. And Republicans have figured out how to make everyone afraid of things they shouldn't be afraid of (CRT) and not afraid of things they should be afraid of (Jan 6th). Why did "defund the police" get so much traction? Cause it made everyone afraid. Why did CRT get so much traction? Cause it made everyone afraid. Why did January 6th get zero traction? Cause no one is afraid of it.
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Look, a skilled candidate like Walz is not going to get tripped up over CRT. When someone brings it up, you're going to get an answer from him like, "we have a great education system here in Minnesota, and the education of our young people is my highest priority. We've got hardworking men and women, like you folks here, sitting on school boards making the best decision possible for the students in their district, and I support them on that."

A bad candidate, someone who is deeply embedded in politics and political issues on a national level, like McAuliffe, is going to say something like, "I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach the children."

That's the difference between winning and losing an election.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
No. They're won and lost on fear. And Republicans have figured out how to make everyone afraid of things they shouldn't be afraid of (CRT) and not afraid of things they should be afraid of (Jan 6th). Why did "defund the police" get so much traction? Cause it made everyone afraid. Why did CRT get so much traction? Cause it made everyone afraid. Why did January 6th get zero traction? Cause no one is afraid of it.
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100%. You have to be incredibly naive to think otherwise.
 
psych said:
So, the party out of power in the White House has won 11 of the last 12 Virginia Governor’s races. You think it comes down to local issues? Wouldn’t it be more likely that voter intensity of the opposite party, regardless of the issues or candidate, is powering those wins?
In one of the highest turnouts for a Virginia Governor’s race, Republicans won comfortably. Compared to 2020, 300,000 fewer Republican votes, and 800,000 fewer Democratic votes. Someone didn’t show up. You think Democrats didn’t show up over local issues?
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I'm not going to claim to be an expert on Virginia politics. I don't live there and I've only visited the state a handful of times. Given the close proximity of the state's population centers to Washington, D.C., it is certainly possible that whatever is happening in the Capitol has more of a "local" impact in Virginia than it would say in Minnesota or Texas or Tennessee or someplace.

For mid-term elections, sure national issues come to the forefront and can be more of a referendum on the party in power, but I do firmly believe that for local and statewide elections, it goes back to the individual candidates and their specific positions on issues of local importance.
 
psych said:
In one of the highest turnouts for a Virginia Governor’s race, Republicans won comfortably. Compared to 2020, 300,000 fewer Republican votes, and 800,000 fewer Democratic votes. Someone didn’t show up. You think Democrats didn’t show up over local issues?
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Sounds to me like some Dem voters need to be reminded that choosing to stick your fingers in your ears and not to vote for the lesser of two turds today, doesn't mean you're going to magically wake up in the United States of Finland tomorrow. Now, could TM have run a better campaign, tacked further to the left on an issue or two to help motivate the base? Absolutely, and that is what is so maddening about Dems' continued insistence on running bland, milquetoast Clintonistas in purple states. Their era is over.
 
SJHovey said:
Look, a skilled candidate like Walz is not going to get tripped up over CRT. When someone brings it up, you're going to get an answer from him like, "we have a great education system here in Minnesota, and the education of our young people is my highest priority. We've got hardworking men and women, like you folks here, sitting on school boards making the best decision possible for the students in their district, and I support them on that."

A bad candidate, someone who is deeply embedded in politics and political issues on a national level, like McAuliffe, is going to say something like, "I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach the children."

That's the difference between winning and losing an election.
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LOL. Just wait.
 
Murphy held NJ, that's something anyway. And apparently it's the first successful re-election bid for a D gov in NJ since 1977, so...
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Sounds to me like some Dem voters need to be reminded that choosing to stick your fingers in your ears and not to vote for the lesser of two turds today, doesn't mean you're going to magically wake up in the United States of Finland tomorrow. Now, could TM have run a better campaign, tacked further to the left on an issue or two to help motivate the base? Absolutely, and that is what is so maddening about Dems' continued insistence on running bland, milquetoast Clintonistas in purple states. Their era is over.
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It really should not matter who they pick. January 6th really should have been enough to remove the party out of existence. But, alas, no. The Dems could not be bothered to come out and vote for democracy. They like autocracy better.
 
Not great news if you live in VA though, their House is gonna flip 52R-48D after the correction of a reporting error flipped another seat.
 
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