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ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

As always, with the end of the regular season this thread will transition to a KRACH-based playoff prediction thread! The first round is expected to go chalk, though Brown has a decent shot of knocking off Colgate. Moving forward, RPI is the only bye team that doesn't have a better than 50/50 shot to make it to Lake Placid, though they're not far off. In the end, Cornell is a 2:1 favorite to win it all.

Anyway, it's the playoffs and something weird always happens, so let's just watch!

Summary:
Code: 
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Cr |  585.0 |   BYE  [B]98.8[/B]  [B]85.7[/B]  [B]65.1[/B]
Ck |  230.6 |   BYE  [B]88.0[/B]  [B]54.9[/B]  19.0
Qu |  156.8 |   BYE  [B]75.5[/B]  32.8   9.0
RP |   83.9 |   BYE  41.0   7.8   1.8
Ha |  108.0 |  [B]96.9[/B]  [B]57.6[/B]  13.2   3.6
Da |   75.8 |  [B]89.3[/B]  22.9   3.7   0.9
Ya |   70.2 |  [B]84.6[/B]  12.8   1.5   0.5
Cg |   53.2 |  [B]68.5[/B]   2.8   0.4   0.1
Br |   31.8 |  31.5   0.5   0.0   0.0
Un |   23.2 |  15.4   0.1   0.0   0.0
Pr |   19.3 |  10.7   0.0   0.0   0.0
SL |   12.8 |   3.1   0.0   0.0     x

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 QF|    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
Cr |                    [B]50.1[/B]  23.1  13.3  10.3   3.1
Ck |              [B]73.2[/B]  16.7   7.7   2.0   0.3      
Qu |        [B]86.5[/B]  11.1   1.6   0.7   0.1           
RP |  [B]96.9[/B]   2.8   0.3   0.0   0.0                  

 SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
Cr |        27.0  [B]37.6[/B]  19.5  12.4   1.8   0.4   0.0   0.0      
Ck |  [B]65.7[/B]   8.7  12.3   0.3   0.0   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0
Qu |         4.0   5.7   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
RP |                     1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
Ha |                     1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0      
Da |                           0.1   0.0   0.0     x           x
Ya |                                 0.0     x           x     x
Cg |                                             0.0     x     x
Br |                                               x     x     x
Un |                                                     x     x

  F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
Cr |  [B]46.7[/B]  27.8   3.8   6.2   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x            
Ck |         0.4   2.2   3.7   1.7   0.2   0.0   0.0     x            
Qu |               1.4   2.4   0.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
RP |                           0.2   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
Ha |                           0.4   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0      
Da |                                 0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
Ya |                                       0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0
Cg |                                                   0.0     x     x
Br |                                                     x     x     x
Un |                                                           x     x
Pr |                                                                 x

0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Despite two upsets in game one, all four top seeds are still favored to advance to the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, SLU is in a preeeeety deep hole.

Summary:
Code: 
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Cr |  576.3 |   BYE  [B]99.1[/B]  [B]86.0[/B]  [B]64.8[/B]
Ck |  229.8 |   BYE  [B]91.5[/B]  [B]56.5[/B]  19.5
Qu |  156.4 |   BYE  [B]80.1[/B]  34.0   9.3
RP |   83.5 |   BYE  40.5   7.2   1.7
Ha |  108.7 |  [B]98.9[/B]  [B]59.1[/B]  12.8   3.7
Da |   67.2 |  [B]56.1[/B]  12.3   1.7   0.4
Ya |   62.5 |  [B]50.0[/B]   7.7   0.9   0.3
Cg |   56.0 |  [B]87.9[/B]   8.4   0.8   0.2
Br |   30.0 |  12.1   0.4   0.0   0.0
Un |   25.8 |  50.0   0.8   0.0   0.0
Pr |   22.5 |  43.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
SL |   12.7 |   1.1   0.0   0.0     x

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 QF|    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
Cr |                    24.5   3.4  27.7  [B]43.4[/B]   1.1
Ck |              27.8  [B]43.6[/B]   6.0  22.0   0.5      
Qu |        [B]55.5[/B]  22.0  19.6   2.7   0.2            
RP |  [B]98.9[/B]   0.6   0.2   0.2   0.0                  

 SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
Cr |        29.4  [B]42.9[/B]  10.8   7.2   7.7   0.4   0.6   0.0      
Ck |  [B]72.7[/B]   7.3  10.7   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.0
Qu |         3.0   4.3   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
RP |                     0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
Ha |                     0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0      
Da |                           0.0   0.0   0.0     x           x
Ya |                                 0.0   0.0           x     x
Cg |                                             0.0     x     x
Br |                                               x     x     x
Un |                                                     x     x

  F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
Cr |  [B]48.3[/B]  28.9   3.0   5.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0            
Ck |         0.3   2.3   4.2   0.8   0.3   0.2   0.0   0.0            
Qu |               1.5   2.8   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
RP |                           0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
Ha |                           0.2   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
Da |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x
Ya |                                       0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x
Cg |                                                   0.0   0.0     x
Br |                                                   0.0     x     x
Un |                                                           x     x
Pr |                                                                 x

0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Last night went from looking like we were headed to 4 sweeps to a thrilling night of two OTs and as many as three games today, then back to just one split series needing to be resolved this afternoon. This means two of next weekends matchups are set and two are yet to be decided.

Summary:
Code: 
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Cr |  569.9 |   BYE  [B]99.5[/B]  [B]86.1[/B]  [B]64.6[/B]
Ck |  230.9 |   BYE  [B]91.6[/B]  [B]56.7[/B]  19.8
Qu |  156.0 |   BYE  [B]79.9[/B]  33.7   9.2
RP |   83.4 |   BYE  39.8   7.0   1.7
Ha |  110.1 |   [B]100[/B]  [B]60.2[/B]  13.1   3.9
Ya |   65.1 |  [B]72.4[/B]  15.2   2.1   0.5
Cg |   58.7 |   [B]100[/B]  12.7   1.2   0.4
Un |   24.7 |  27.6   0.7   0.0   0.0
Pr |   25.5 |   [B]100[/B]   0.5   0.1   0.0
Da |   60.8 |     x     x     x     x
Br |   28.4 |     x     x     x     x
SL |   12.4 |     x     x     x     x

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 QF|    Ha    Ya    Cg    Un    Pr 
Cr |                           [B]100[/B]
Ck |              [B]72.4[/B]  27.6      
Qu |        [B]72.4[/B]  27.6            
RP |   [B]100[/B]                        

 SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Un    Pr 
Cr |     x  29.0  [B]43.8[/B]  13.5  12.5   0.7      
Ck |  [B]72.8[/B]   7.3  11.0     x     x         0.5
Qu |         2.8   4.3           x     x   0.0
RP |                     0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0
Ha |                     1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0
Ya |                           0.0           x
Cg |                                 0.0     x

  F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Un    Pr 
Cr |  [B]48.5[/B]  28.7   2.9   5.3   0.6   0.0     x      
Ck |         0.2   2.3   4.3   1.0   0.3     x      
Qu |               1.5   2.9     x   0.4   0.0   0.0
RP |                           0.1   0.2   0.0   0.0
Ha |                           0.3   0.3   0.0   0.0
Ya |                                 0.1         0.0
Cg |                                       0.0   0.0
Un |                                             0.0

0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

One round down, three to go! We say goodbye to Dartmouth, Union, Brown, and SLU, and welcome back our four bye teams. As we've said all along, Harvard is the only road team favored to pull off the upset, as they are 3-to-2 favorites over hosting RPI. Meanwhile, Cornell is positioned to lay down a veritable whooping on Princeton, who are, at least according to KRACH, 200-to-1 underdogs. Woof. (or should I say meow?)

Summary:
Code: 
      KRACH |    QF    SF     F
Cr |  570.4 |  [B]99.5[/B]  [B]86.1[/B]  [B]64.9[/B]
Ck |  231.1 |  [B]89.3[/B]  [B]55.5[/B]  19.4
Qu |  155.8 |  [B]78.2[/B]  33.3   9.1
RP |   83.2 |  39.6   7.3   1.7
Ha |  110.2 |  [B]60.4[/B]  13.7   3.9
Ya |   67.4 |  21.8   3.0   0.7
Cg |   58.6 |  10.7   1.0   0.3
Pr |   25.5 |   0.5   0.1   0.0

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Pr 
Cr |        27.5  [B]41.9[/B]  19.4  10.6      
Ck |  [B]69.4[/B]   7.7  11.7               0.5
Qu |         3.4   5.2               0.0
RP |                     0.9   0.0   0.0
Ha |                     1.5   0.0   0.0
Ya |                           0.0      

  F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Pr 
Cr |  [B]47.5[/B]  28.4   3.3   6.1   0.8            
Ck |         0.2   2.1   4.2   1.5            
Qu |               1.4   2.8         0.5   0.0
RP |                           0.2   0.2   0.0
Ha |                           0.4   0.3   0.0
Ya |                                 0.1   0.0
Cg |                                       0.0

0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Well, this sure isn't the post I thought I'd have to write. Obviously everything is still in motion, but it seems that the plan is for Harvard and Yale to withdraw, Cornell and Clarkson to get byes to the semis, and for the remaining teams to reseed. This is all truly wild and I'm getting through it by running fun hockey simulations. Anyway, every team's chances of advancing to "Lake Placid" have increased, which I guess is fun?

Summary:
Code: 
      KRACH |    QF    SF     F
Cr |  570.4 |   BYE  [B]89.5[/B]  [B]65.7[/B]
Ck |  231.1 |   BYE  [B]63.3[/B]  20.5
Qu |  155.8 |  [B]95.2[/B]  35.7  10.2
RP |   83.2 |  [B]61.7[/B]   8.1   2.5
Cg |   58.6 |  38.3   3.2   1.0
Pr |   25.5 |   4.8   0.2   0.1

Future Round Matchups:
Code: 
 SF|    Qu    RP    Cg    Pr 
Cr |        [B]59.2[/B]  36.0   4.8
Ck |  [B]95.2[/B]   2.5   2.3      

  F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Cg    Pr
Cr |  [B]56.9[/B]  31.6   0.7   0.3      
Ck |               4.0   2.2   0.2
Qu |               3.4   0.7      
RP |                             x
Cg |                             x

0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Well, last night was apparently too optimistic. Thanks for following all season, hopefully I'll see you again in October.
 
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