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ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
- Thread starter lugnut92
- Start date
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
We have a seriously tight battle for the bye as Quinnipiac and Harvard are effectively tied for fourth place. Colgate has fallen back toward the lower tier in KRACH, but they've banked enough points and have a soft enough remaining schedule to feel safe in their first round home ice position.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]26.2[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
We have a seriously tight battle for the bye as Quinnipiac and Harvard are effectively tied for fourth place. Colgate has fallen back toward the lower tier in KRACH, but they've banked enough points and have a soft enough remaining schedule to feel safe in their first round home ice position.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]26.2[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Dartmouth
- Quinnipiac
————— - Harvard
- Colgate
- Yale
- RPI
————— - Princeton
- Brown
- Union
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 693.7 | [B]91.6[/B] 7.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 1.09 | 37.10
Ck | 242.2 | 7.8 [B]65.5[/B] 15.9 6.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 2.34 | 32.36
Da | 142.2 | 0.2 10.6 24.1 25.5 [B]25.8[/B] 12.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 x x | 4.09 | 28.62
Qu | 150.2 | 0.3 8.7 27.8 [B]28.0[/B] 20.8 12.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 x x x | 4.06 | 28.42
Ha | 154.5 | 0.0 6.4 26.3 [B]27.7[/B] 26.4 12.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x | 4.15 | 28.40
Cg | 76.6 | 0.0 0.8 5.2 11.0 20.9 [B]47.4[/B] 11.2 3.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 x | 5.56 | 25.18
Ya | 62.7 | x 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 10.9 [B]53.2[/B] 27.8 4.5 0.5 0.1 x | 7.21 | 20.44
RP | 46.7 | x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.7 28.9 [B]58.5[/B] 6.7 0.4 0.0 x | 7.67 | 19.40
Pr | 32.0 | x x x x 0.0 0.1 1.9 7.0 [B]34.9[/B] 26.0 28.9 1.2 | 9.76 | 13.51
Br | 18.6 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 32.9 [B]34.9[/B] 29.2 0.6 | 9.93 | 12.98
Un | 22.2 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 20.9 37.8 [B]39.9[/B] 0.4 | 10.18 | 12.35
SL | 11.1 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 [B]97.8[/B] | 11.98 | 5.24
| KRACH | 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 693.7 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 5.3 9.9 15.7 20.0 [B]21.3[/B] 15.2 8.9 | 37.10
Ck | 242.2 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.8 10.0 13.1 [B]17.1[/B] 15.7 15.1 9.0 6.2 1.8 0.8 | 32.36
Da | 142.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.7 5.0 8.9 12.1 [B]16.4[/B] 16.0 16.0 10.2 7.4 2.4 1.2 | 28.62
Qu | 150.2 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 6.1 9.2 13.5 15.2 [B]16.7[/B] 13.4 10.8 5.5 3.1 0.7 0.3 | 28.42
Ha | 154.5 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.6 9.0 14.7 16.3 [B]19.2[/B] 13.7 11.3 4.0 2.2 | 28.40
Cg | 76.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.3 6.8 11.2 13.4 [B]16.2[/B] 14.4 12.9 8.3 5.4 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 25.18
Ya | 62.7 | 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 4.0 6.3 10.7 12.8 [B]15.6[/B] 14.0 12.9 8.9 6.2 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 20.44
RP | 46.7 | 2.9 4.6 12.9 14.1 [B]19.9[/B] 15.5 14.0 7.9 5.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 19.40
Pr | 32.0 | 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.9 6.2 10.3 12.3 [B]15.2[/B] 14.0 13.1 9.2 6.7 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 13.51
Br | 18.6 | 1.6 3.4 9.1 12.5 [B]17.3[/B] 16.6 15.1 10.7 7.0 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 12.98
Un | 22.2 | 7.0 10.6 [B]19.4[/B] 18.5 18.0 12.2 7.8 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 12.35
SL | 11.1 | 7.2 11.7 [B]19.6[/B] 19.4 17.5 11.8 7.1 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 5.24
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Cr Ck Da Qu Ha Cg Ya RP Pr Br Un SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 100.0
Ck | x x x x x x 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 3.0 | 96.2
Da | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 5.0 25.5 | 60.5
Qu | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.0 6.1 20.6 | 64.9
Ha | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.3 4.8 26.1 | 60.4
Cg | x x 0.0 x x 0.1 0.1 16.9 19.1 25.2 21.4 | 17.1
Ya | x x x 0.0 x 0.0 1.6 28.8 31.0 30.2 2.5 | 0.9
RP | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 31.1 33.3 26.2 0.9 | 0.2
Pr | x x 0.0 x x 0.0 2.7 4.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 | NO
Br | x x 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 | NO
Un | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 | NO
SL | x x x x x x 0.0 x x x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 693.7 | 100.0 98.9 83.5 65.4
Ck | 242.2 | 100.0 86.9 53.3 17.5
Da | 142.2 | 98.8 56.7 18.1 4.8
Ha | 154.5 | 99.0 59.7 19.9 5.7
Qu | 150.2 | 98.9 60.1 20.0 5.5
Cg | 76.6 | 90.3 22.4 3.7 0.8
Ya | 62.7 | 80.8 10.3 1.1 0.3
RP | 46.7 | 72.1 4.3 0.4 0.1
Pr | 32.0 | 27.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
Br | 18.6 | 13.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Un | 22.2 | 16.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
SL | 11.1 | 2.2 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Well that fight for the byes seems to have collapsed on the back of Dartmouth getting swept by the Capital District pair while Quinnipiac and Harvard went undefeated. As such, we have four teams that look very likely to take byes, four teams that look very likely to host, and four times that will almost definitely be on the road.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]21.0[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
Well that fight for the byes seems to have collapsed on the back of Dartmouth getting swept by the Capital District pair while Quinnipiac and Harvard went undefeated. As such, we have four teams that look very likely to take byes, four teams that look very likely to host, and four times that will almost definitely be on the road.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]21.0[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Quinnipiac
- Harvard
————— - Colgate
- Dartmouth
- RPI
- Yale
————— - Union
- Brown
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 521.0 | [B]72.9[/B] 22.9 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 1.32 | 35.39
Ck | 250.5 | 23.6 [B]54.1[/B] 17.3 4.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 x x | 2.04 | 33.34
Qu | 183.6 | 3.4 19.8 [B]56.8[/B] 17.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 2.96 | 31.00
Ha | 158.2 | 0.1 3.0 19.6 [B]57.7[/B] 14.3 4.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 x x | 4.00 | 28.82
Cg | 74.5 | 0.0 0.1 1.5 10.9 [B]43.3[/B] 29.4 11.6 3.1 0.1 0.0 x x | 5.48 | 24.96
Da | 99.4 | 0.0 0.1 0.8 8.0 30.0 [B]41.6[/B] 15.6 3.8 0.1 0.0 x x | 5.75 | 24.63
RP | 59.7 | x 0.0 0.1 0.9 8.2 18.0 [B]47.1[/B] 25.1 0.6 0.0 x x | 6.89 | 21.47
Ya | 57.3 | x x 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.9 24.4 [B]58.3[/B] 7.7 1.6 0.3 x | 7.70 | 19.22
Un | 26.7 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 38.7 [B]42.9[/B] 15.7 0.0 | 9.72 | 14.01
Br | 21.3 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.2 [B]37.3[/B] 33.7 24.6 0.0 | 9.78 | 13.87
Pr | 29.0 | x x x 0.0 0.2 3.0 15.5 21.8 [B]57.4[/B] 2.0 | 10.39 | 12.13
SL | 11.5 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 2.0 [B]98.0[/B] | 11.98 | 5.17
| KRACH | 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 521.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.0 8.1 14.5 19.4 [B]23.2[/B] 16.7 11.8 | 35.39
Ck | 250.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 5.9 9.1 15.7 16.3 [B]19.9[/B] 13.0 11.0 3.5 2.0 | 33.34
Qu | 183.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 6.3 11.5 14.9 [B]19.5[/B] 16.6 15.3 6.4 3.8 | 31.00
Ha | 158.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.0 6.9 13.0 15.4 [B]20.5[/B] 15.3 14.2 5.2 3.3 | 28.82
Cg | 74.5 | 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 4.2 6.9 13.0 14.7 [B]18.8[/B] 14.7 13.1 6.7 3.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 | 24.96
Da | 99.4 | 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.3 4.3 9.5 12.1 [B]18.5[/B] 16.0 17.2 9.4 7.0 1.8 0.9 | 24.63
RP | 59.7 | 2.3 3.7 12.5 13.2 [B]21.2[/B] 15.7 15.7 7.9 5.2 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 | 21.47
Ya | 57.3 | 0.5 1.1 4.2 6.4 12.5 13.8 [B]17.6[/B] 14.3 12.9 7.8 5.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 19.22
Un | 26.7 | 9.1 11.1 [B]22.9[/B] 18.6 18.4 10.1 6.2 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 14.01
Br | 21.3 | 4.5 7.3 16.1 17.0 [B]19.2[/B] 14.4 10.8 5.8 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 13.87
Pr | 29.0 | 0.2 0.5 2.2 3.7 8.3 10.4 15.7 14.8 [B]15.9[/B] 11.1 8.9 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 12.13
SL | 11.5 | 16.6 20.4 [B]25.0[/B] 18.0 11.4 5.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 5.17
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Cr Ck Qu Ha Cg Da RP Ya Un Br Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 100.0
Ck | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 | 99.4
Qu | x x x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.9 | 97.7
Ha | x x 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.4 3.0 14.1 | 80.4
Cg | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.2 12.7 20.1 43.1 | 12.5
Da | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.4 15.5 17.6 27.3 30.2 | 8.8
RP | x x x x 0.0 0.0 1.4 32.8 30.1 25.7 8.4 | 1.0
Ya | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 36.0 32.9 19.4 1.8 | 0.2
Un | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 | NO
Br | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 | NO
Pr | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 0.3 0.4 x | NO
SL | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 521.0 | 100.0 97.7 77.8 55.8
Ck | 250.5 | 100.0 89.4 54.2 21.8
Qu | 183.6 | 100.0 78.9 32.3 11.4
Ha | 158.2 | 99.5 71.0 23.7 8.1
Cg | 74.5 | 90.4 19.8 3.7 0.8
Da | 99.4 | 92.1 27.1 6.1 1.7
RP | 59.7 | 79.5 9.0 1.3 0.3
Ya | 57.3 | 77.3 6.2 0.8 0.2
Un | 26.7 | 21.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Br | 21.3 | 15.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pr | 29.0 | 20.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
SL | 11.5 | 3.9 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
We're finally here! Everyone has played the same number of games and every weekend from here on in has 12 ECAC games. The first round tiers are pretty much set, with only Yale and Brown in noticeable danger of swapping places, but the positions themselves could still be pretty fluid. It's somewhat notable that RPI is currently in 5th but is fairly unlikely to stay there. The Engineers will be playing a fairly rough schedule for the last three weeks, but that's weird.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]17.2[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
We're finally here! Everyone has played the same number of games and every weekend from here on in has 12 ECAC games. The first round tiers are pretty much set, with only Yale and Brown in noticeable danger of swapping places, but the positions themselves could still be pretty fluid. It's somewhat notable that RPI is currently in 5th but is fairly unlikely to stay there. The Engineers will be playing a fairly rough schedule for the last three weeks, but that's weird.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]17.2[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Quinnipiac
- Harvard
————— - Colgate
- Dartmouth
- RPI
- Yale
————— - Brown
- Union
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 524.9 | [B]79.0[/B] 19.9 1.0 0.0 x x x x | 1.22 | 36.11
Ck | 245.4 | 20.4 [B]63.6[/B] 12.2 3.8 0.1 0.0 x x | 2.00 | 33.71
Qu | 174.2 | 0.6 13.0 [B]59.6[/B] 26.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x | 3.14 | 30.78
Ha | 137.2 | 0.0 3.6 26.8 [B]64.1[/B] 4.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 x x x | 3.72 | 29.39
Cg | 67.5 | x 0.0 0.3 4.2 [B]47.2[/B] 28.6 14.1 5.1 0.6 0.0 x | 5.70 | 24.06
Da | 86.7 | x x 0.0 1.1 29.8 [B]40.2[/B] 20.9 7.2 0.7 0.1 x | 6.06 | 23.55
RP | 55.5 | x x 0.1 0.8 14.3 21.7 [B]37.7[/B] 23.9 1.4 0.0 x | 6.74 | 21.59
Ya | 56.6 | x x 0.0 0.1 3.0 8.6 25.4 [B]52.0[/B] 10.2 0.7 0.0 x | 7.60 | 19.63
Br | 26.4 | x 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 10.2 [B]66.0[/B] 21.7 0.3 x | 9.08 | 16.24
Un | 26.2 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 20.6 [B]72.9[/B] 4.8 0.0 | 9.81 | 14.22
Pr | 21.8 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.5 [B]87.3[/B] 7.6 | 11.02 | 9.64
SL | 10.9 | x x 0.0 7.6 [B]92.4[/B] | 11.92 | 5.08
| KRACH | 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 524.9 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.6 9.3 16.5 [B]26.3[/B] 21.9 20.8 | 36.11
Ck | 245.4 | 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.4 7.1 14.5 15.5 [B]21.8[/B] 14.2 13.7 4.2 2.7 | 33.71
Qu | 174.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 7.3 11.3 20.0 18.7 [B]22.0[/B] 9.3 7.1 | 30.78
Ha | 137.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.0 4.1 9.9 13.3 [B]21.5[/B] 17.4 19.2 6.9 5.0 | 29.39
Cg | 67.5 | 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.6 7.4 10.0 18.2 16.2 [B]20.1[/B] 11.0 9.2 2.3 1.2 | 24.06
Da | 86.7 | 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 5.0 7.7 15.5 15.9 [B]21.8[/B] 13.6 12.6 3.6 2.1 | 23.55
RP | 55.5 | 1.9 3.2 11.5 12.7 [B]21.2[/B] 16.0 16.4 8.4 5.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 | 21.59
Ya | 56.6 | 1.9 3.1 11.3 12.5 [B]21.1[/B] 16.0 16.6 8.6 5.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 | 19.63
Br | 26.4 | 7.3 9.4 [B]21.7[/B] 18.3 19.8 11.4 7.5 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 16.24
Un | 26.2 | 7.3 9.4 [B]21.8[/B] 18.4 19.8 11.3 7.4 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 14.22
Pr | 21.8 | 2.0 3.3 11.2 12.3 [B]20.8[/B] 15.9 16.6 8.7 6.1 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 | 9.64
SL | 10.9 | 18.3 19.8 [B]26.3[/B] 17.3 11.1 4.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 5.08
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Cr Ck Qu Ha Cg Da RP Ya Br Un Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES
Ck | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 | 99.9
Qu | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 | 99.1
Ha | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.4 | 94.5
Cg | x x x x 0.1 0.0 0.3 6.8 13.0 28.6 46.1 | 4.5
Da | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.0 19.3 38.0 30.3 | 1.1
RP | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.8 26.2 33.3 22.5 14.8 | 0.9
Ya | x x x x 0.1 0.1 0.5 44.5 30.9 9.4 3.5 | 0.1
Br | x x x x 0.4 0.4 0.6 8.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 | 0.0
Un | x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 | NO
Pr | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | NO
SL | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 524.9 | 100.0 98.0 79.8 57.9
Ck | 245.4 | 100.0 90.4 56.3 22.0
Qu | 174.2 | 100.0 80.4 31.8 10.9
Ha | 137.2 | 99.9 73.0 22.3 6.9
Cg | 67.5 | 89.1 18.3 3.1 0.6
Da | 86.7 | 90.6 23.0 4.5 1.2
RP | 55.5 | 79.2 9.5 1.3 0.3
Ya | 56.6 | 76.5 6.6 0.9 0.2
Br | 26.4 | 23.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Un | 26.2 | 21.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Pr | 21.8 | 14.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
SL | 10.9 | 4.9 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Interesting.... Cornell takes the Cleary Spittoon 79% of the time, but nearly all of that hinges on beating Clarkson head-to-head. Given their KRACH ratings, Cornell wins that game 525/(525+245) = 68%. That means there are only around 11% of cases where Cornell loses to Clarkson but gets the 1-seed. It’’s probably a little less than that. There are undoubtedly a few cases where Clarkson comes into the final game up by 3 points so that some of those 68% of cases, Cornell does not get the 1-seed, but given their remaining schedules, that must be more than offset by cases where Cornell is up by 3 points and loses to Clarkson. So it’s pretty simple for Cornell: the path to the 1-seed pretty much comes down to the Clarkson game.
Edit: With only 32 outcomes each (leading up to the Cornell/Clarkson game), I just ran the numbers. It's 10.2%, not 11%.
There's a 32% chance that Cornell will be up by more than 3 points on Clarkson, and only a 0.7% chance that Clarkson will be up by 3 going into that game. Cornell plays 5 of the 6 worst KRACH teams and Clarkson plays 4 of the 6 best teams (not Cornell and not themselves) - the schedules are about as different as they could be.
Interesting.... Cornell takes the Cleary Spittoon 79% of the time, but nearly all of that hinges on beating Clarkson head-to-head. Given their KRACH ratings, Cornell wins that game 525/(525+245) = 68%. That means there are only around 11% of cases where Cornell loses to Clarkson but gets the 1-seed. It’’s probably a little less than that. There are undoubtedly a few cases where Clarkson comes into the final game up by 3 points so that some of those 68% of cases, Cornell does not get the 1-seed, but given their remaining schedules, that must be more than offset by cases where Cornell is up by 3 points and loses to Clarkson. So it’s pretty simple for Cornell: the path to the 1-seed pretty much comes down to the Clarkson game.
Edit: With only 32 outcomes each (leading up to the Cornell/Clarkson game), I just ran the numbers. It's 10.2%, not 11%.
There's a 32% chance that Cornell will be up by more than 3 points on Clarkson, and only a 0.7% chance that Clarkson will be up by 3 going into that game. Cornell plays 5 of the 6 worst KRACH teams and Clarkson plays 4 of the 6 best teams (not Cornell and not themselves) - the schedules are about as different as they could be.
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Certainly the schedule lines up favorably for the Big Red. If they don't take the top seed they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
Interesting.... Cornell takes the Cleary Spittoon 79% of the time, but nearly all of that hinges on beating Clarkson head-to-head. Given their KRACH ratings, Cornell wins that game 525/(525+245) = 68%. That means there are only around 11% of cases where Cornell loses to Clarkson but gets the 1-seed. It’’s probably a little less than that. There are undoubtedly a few cases where Clarkson comes into the final game up by 3 points so that some of those 68% of cases, Cornell does not get the 1-seed, but given their remaining schedules, that must be more than offset by cases where Cornell is up by 3 points and loses to Clarkson. So it’s pretty simple for Cornell: the path to the 1-seed pretty much comes down to the Clarkson game.
Edit: With only 32 outcomes each (leading up to the Cornell/Clarkson game), I just ran the numbers. It's 10.2%, not 11%.
Certainly the schedule lines up favorably for the Big Red. If they don't take the top seed they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Midweek update! Less than a quarter of the season to go!
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]14.3[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
Midweek update! Less than a quarter of the season to go!
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]14.3[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Quinnipiac
- Harvard
————— - Dartmouth
- Colgate
- RPI
- Yale
————— - Brown
- Union
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 524.3 | [B]72.4[/B] 27.4 0.2 0.0 x | 1.28 | 36.27
Ck | 273.5 | 27.6 [B]70.8[/B] 1.3 0.3 0.0 | 1.74 | 34.73
Qu | 163.7 | 0.0 1.0 [B]69.9[/B] 27.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 x | 3.30 | 29.83
Ha | 133.6 | 0.0 0.8 28.2 [B]66.9[/B] 3.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 x | 3.75 | 28.94
Da | 91.5 | x x 0.1 1.8 [B]45.3[/B] 27.1 20.1 5.6 0.1 0.0 | 5.82 | 24.10
Cg | 62.3 | 0.0 0.9 20.8 [B]33.6[/B] 29.9 13.8 0.9 0.1 x | 6.38 | 22.82
RP | 61.1 | x x 0.3 2.3 26.0 29.3 [B]30.5[/B] 11.5 0.1 x | 6.22 | 22.81
Ya | 59.2 | 0.0 0.0 3.3 9.3 19.0 [B]63.4[/B] 4.8 0.2 x | 7.58 | 20.07
Br | 25.1 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 [B]68.5[/B] 25.4 0.7 x | 9.21 | 15.64
Un | 26.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 24.4 [B]66.9[/B] 8.1 x | 9.82 | 14.00
Pr | 23.7 | 0.0 1.3 7.5 [B]91.0[/B] 0.2 | 10.90 | 10.45
SL | 10.0 | x x 0.2 [B]99.8[/B] | 12.00 | 4.34
| KRACH | 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 524.3 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 8.1 15.0 [B]27.5[/B] 21.7 24.1 | 36.27
Ck | 273.5 | 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 7.9 11.2 22.1 17.9 [B]23.0[/B] 7.9 6.2 | 34.73
Qu | 163.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.4 5.1 12.7 16.5 [B]26.9[/B] 17.4 18.3 | 29.83
Ha | 133.6 | 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 6.1 10.0 21.2 18.9 [B]25.3[/B] 8.8 7.1 | 28.94
Da | 91.5 | 0.1 0.4 2.5 4.5 12.9 14.3 [B]24.6[/B] 15.6 17.3 4.7 3.1 | 24.10
Cg | 62.3 | 0.2 0.6 3.4 5.6 15.0 15.3 [B]25.1[/B] 14.5 14.7 3.5 2.0 | 22.82
RP | 61.1 | 3.6 5.2 18.1 16.0 [B]24.1[/B] 13.8 12.1 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 | 22.81
Ya | 59.2 | 2.8 4.3 15.4 14.7 [B]24.3[/B] 14.9 14.5 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.2 | 20.07
Br | 25.1 | 11.7 12.4 [B]26.9[/B] 18.4 17.4 7.6 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 | 15.64
Un | 26.2 | 9.1 10.1 [B]24.1[/B] 17.8 19.7 9.6 6.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 | 14.00
Pr | 23.7 | 6.2 7.4 20.5 16.6 [B]22.2[/B] 12.0 9.8 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 | 10.45
SL | 10.0 | [B]32.4[/B] 27.3 23.0 10.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 x | 4.34
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Cr Ck Qu Ha Da Cg RP Ya Br Un Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | x x x x x x x x x x x | YES
Ck | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 | 100.0
Qu | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 | 98.7
Ha | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 | 95.9
Da | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 17.1 25.9 45.3 | 1.9
Cg | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 17.6 27.2 32.2 20.8 | 0.9
RP | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.1 25.0 30.2 25.9 | 2.6
Ya | x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.0 51.1 29.4 11.0 3.3 | 0.0
Br | x x x x 0.0 0.7 0.0 4.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 | NO
Un | x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 | NO
Pr | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 x x | NO
SL | x x x x x x x x x x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 524.3 | 100.0 97.8 80.1 56.7
Ck | 273.5 | 100.0 91.9 61.7 25.5
Qu | 163.7 | 100.0 78.0 27.2 9.1
Ha | 133.6 | 99.9 70.9 20.5 6.2
Cg | 62.3 | 83.3 13.4 2.0 0.4
Da | 91.5 | 92.6 27.0 5.5 1.4
RP | 61.1 | 84.1 13.7 2.1 0.4
Ya | 59.2 | 78.9 6.6 0.9 0.2
Br | 25.1 | 20.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Un | 26.2 | 20.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Pr | 23.7 | 16.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
SL | 10.0 | 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
It's because RPI wins the tiebreak with Colgate if they tie.
It's because RPI wins the tiebreak with Colgate if they tie.
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Just two weeks to go, and almost every position is still up for grabs, especially in the middle four. This is epitomized by RPI, who somehow has basically even odds for ending up on each of the positions from 5th to 8th, and thus has even odds of hosting each of the bottom four teams in the first round.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]11.5[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
Just two weeks to go, and almost every position is still up for grabs, especially in the middle four. This is epitomized by RPI, who somehow has basically even odds for ending up on each of the positions from 5th to 8th, and thus has even odds of hosting each of the bottom four teams in the first round.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]11.5[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Quinnipiac
- Harvard
————— - Colgate
- Dartmouth
- RPI
- Yale
————— - Brown
- Union
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 535.6 | [B]72.3[/B] 27.6 0.0 0.0 | 1.28 | 36.57
Ck | 279.2 | 27.7 [B]71.8[/B] 0.5 0.1 | 1.73 | 35.07
Qu | 164.4 | x 0.5 [B]83.6[/B] 15.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 x | 3.16 | 30.04
Ha | 126.5 | x 0.1 15.7 [B]79.5[/B] 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 | 3.90 | 28.31
Cg | 64.2 | 0.1 2.2 [B]39.7[/B] 29.7 16.5 11.5 0.4 x | 5.96 | 23.45
Da | 81.5 | 0.0 0.3 21.7 29.2 [B]29.8[/B] 18.9 0.1 0.0 | 6.46 | 22.80
RP | 59.5 | 0.2 2.4 24.5 24.0 [B]25.0[/B] 23.7 0.1 x | 6.43 | 22.53
Ya | 64.9 | 0.0 0.1 9.6 16.4 28.5 [B]44.3[/B] 1.2 0.0 | 7.11 | 21.36
Br | 26.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 [B]87.3[/B] 10.9 0.0 | 9.09 | 16.30
Un | 24.8 | x x 0.0 0.0 10.5 [B]81.1[/B] 8.4 x | 9.98 | 13.35
Pr | 23.1 | 0.4 8.0 [B]91.5[/B] 0.1 | 10.91 | 10.11
SL | 9.8 | 0.0 0.1 [B]99.9[/B] | 12.0 | 4.11
| KRACH | 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 535.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.3 11.9 28.0 22.5 [B]30.8[/B] | 36.57
Ck | 279.2 | 0.5 1.1 6.0 8.3 22.0 17.4 [B]27.5[/B] 8.9 8.4 | 35.07
Qu | 164.4 | 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.6 11.6 14.5 [B]28.7[/B] 17.5 22.0 | 30.04
Ha | 126.5 | 0.1 0.6 3.7 6.8 20.3 18.4 [B]30.9[/B] 10.0 9.2 | 28.31
Cg | 64.2 | 0.9 2.0 10.4 12.1 [B]28.4[/B] 16.8 21.3 5.0 3.2 | 23.45
Da | 81.5 | 0.5 1.2 7.1 9.8 25.8 17.9 [B]25.9[/B] 6.7 5.0 | 22.80
RP | 59.5 | 4.5 5.7 21.4 16.0 [B]26.0[/B] 11.6 11.1 2.4 1.4 | 22.53
Ya | 64.9 | 4.7 6.1 23.0 17.1 [B]27.0[/B] 11.0 8.9 1.6 0.6 | 21.36
Br | 26.8 | 15.0 13.5 [B]31.3[/B] 17.1 15.7 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.1 | 16.30
Un | 24.8 | 15.1 13.4 [B]30.3[/B] 16.7 15.8 5.2 2.9 0.5 0.1 | 13.35
Pr | 23.1 | 8.3 8.4 [B]24.3[/B] 16.2 22.7 9.4 8.2 1.7 0.9 | 10.11
SL | 9.8 | [B]39.7[/B] 26.9 21.4 8.1 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 4.11
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Cg Da RP Ya Br Un Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | x x x x x x x x | YES
Ck | x x x x x x x x | YES
Qu | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 | 99.6
Ha | x x x x 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 | 95.3
Cg | 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 16.9 28.4 39.7 | 2.2
Da | 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 30.2 28.3 21.7 | 0.3
RP | 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6 24.4 24.7 24.5 | 2.6
Ya | 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.1 28.2 17.8 9.6 | 0.1
Br | 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 | NO
Un | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 535.6 | BYE 97.6 80.8 57.3
Ck | 279.2 | BYE 91.6 62.3 25.7
Qu | 164.4 | 100.0 79.2 28.0 9.2
Ha | 126.5 | 99.9 72.0 19.5 5.7
Cg | 64.2 | 87.4 17.4 2.7 0.5
Da | 81.5 | 88.6 19.1 3.4 0.9
RP | 59.5 | 83.4 12.6 1.8 0.4
Ya | 64.9 | 82.0 9.8 1.4 0.4
Br | 26.8 | 20.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Un | 24.8 | 17.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pr | 23.1 | 16.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
SL | 9.8 | 4.4 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Then why is Colgate higher, fifth vs RPI seventh ?
Then why is Colgate higher, fifth vs RPI seventh ?
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
If you look at the point distributions, because of their remaining schedule and relative strength, Colgate is relatively likely to end up with more points than RPI. As you can see, Colgate has a nearly 50% chance of doing better than .500 over the final four games, while RPI is only about 25% to do better than .500. In the cases where the two teams end up with exactly the same number of points, RPI wins the tiebreak, but that's a relatively unlikely outcome.
EDIT: To expand on this, because Colgate and RPI don't play each other again, their point distributions are independent so we can easily determine the likelihood of each outcome (i.e., Colgate ahead, RPI ahead, and a tie). Colgate ends up leading RPI ~57% of the time, RPI leads ~27% of the time, and the teams tie ~16%. It's obviously possible that other teams could be involved with the tie, which would change how it is broken. For example, if Yale joined the tie, we could end up with a scenario where RPI swept Colgate, Colgate split with Yale, and Yale swept RPI, which would lead Yale to sit atop both.
That Colgate@Yale and RPI@Dartmouth are still upcoming makes this all very wide open.
If you look at the point distributions, because of their remaining schedule and relative strength, Colgate is relatively likely to end up with more points than RPI. As you can see, Colgate has a nearly 50% chance of doing better than .500 over the final four games, while RPI is only about 25% to do better than .500. In the cases where the two teams end up with exactly the same number of points, RPI wins the tiebreak, but that's a relatively unlikely outcome.
EDIT: To expand on this, because Colgate and RPI don't play each other again, their point distributions are independent so we can easily determine the likelihood of each outcome (i.e., Colgate ahead, RPI ahead, and a tie). Colgate ends up leading RPI ~57% of the time, RPI leads ~27% of the time, and the teams tie ~16%. It's obviously possible that other teams could be involved with the tie, which would change how it is broken. For example, if Yale joined the tie, we could end up with a scenario where RPI swept Colgate, Colgate split with Yale, and Yale swept RPI, which would lead Yale to sit atop both.
That Colgate@Yale and RPI@Dartmouth are still upcoming makes this all very wide open.
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Midweekend update!
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 387,420,489 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
Midweekend update!
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 387,420,489 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Harvard
- Quinnipiac
————— - RPI
- Dartmouth
- Colgate
- Yale
————— - Brown
- Union
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 531.3 | [B]85.6[/B] 14.4 | 1.14 | 36.93
Ck | 242.5 | 14.4 [B]84.8[/B] 0.8 x | 1.86 | 33.64
Ha | 140.2 | 0.8 [B]64.9[/B] 32.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 | 3.35 | 29.66
Qu | 143.8 | x 34.0 [B]63.6[/B] 2.3 0.1 0.0 x | 3.68 | 28.50
RP | 67.4 | 0.3 3.3 [B]56.4[/B] 23.9 13.6 2.5 0.0 | 5.55 | 24.03
Da | 82.5 | 0.0 0.2 29.6 29.3 [B]31.1[/B] 9.7 0.1 | 6.21 | 23.13
Cg | 58.0 | 0.0 0.0 6.0 [B]30.5[/B] 30.3 31.2 2.0 | 6.93 | 22.03
Ya | 65.3 | 0.0 4.3 16.2 24.6 [B]49.9[/B] 5.0 x | 7.35 | 21.14
Br | 30.9 | x 0.0 0.5 6.7 [B]91.9[/B] 1.0 x | 8.93 | 17.79
Un | 24.8 | x 1.0 [B]96.9[/B] 2.1 x | 10.01 | 13.32
Pr | 23.1 | 2.1 [B]97.9[/B] 0.0 | 10.98 | 10.04
SL | 9.6 | 0.0 [B]100.0[/B] | 12.00 | 3.79
| KRACH | 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 531.3 | 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.6 26.1 22.7 [B]41.4[/B] | 36.93
Ck | 242.5 | 2.2 3.6 18.3 15.9 [B]36.9[/B] 10.9 12.2 | 33.64
Ha | 140.2 | 0.2 0.8 5.4 9.5 29.1 20.2 [B]34.7[/B] | 29.66
Qu | 143.8 | 0.5 1.3 7.7 10.5 30.0 18.7 [B]31.3[/B] | 28.50
RP | 67.4 | 6.2 6.9 [B]28.3[/B] 16.3 28.0 7.3 7.0 | 24.03
Da | 82.5 | 5.0 6.1 26.8 16.6 [B]30.8[/B] 7.7 7.0 | 23.13
Cg | 58.0 | 3.9 6.3 [B]30.6[/B] 17.6 29.9 6.7 5.0 | 22.03
Ya | 65.3 | 5.5 6.3 26.3 16.2 [B]29.8[/B] 7.9 7.9 | 21.14
Br | 30.9 | 21.6 15.5 [B]38.2[/B] 13.6 9.4 1.4 0.4 | 17.79
Un | 24.8 | [B]36.1[/B] 20.5 27.5 9.1 5.7 0.9 0.3 | 13.32
Pr | 23.1 | 20.4 14.1 [B]32.7[/B] 13.5 14.6 2.9 1.9 | 10.04
SL | 9.6 | [B]51.0[/B] 25.9 17.3 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 | 3.79
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| RP Da Cg Ya Br Un Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | x x x x x x x x | BYE
Ck | x x x x x x x x | BYE
Ha | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 1.5 | 98.5
Qu | x x x x x 0.0 0.1 2.3 | 97.6
RP | x 0.0 0.0 2.6 13.6 23.8 56.4 | 3.6
Da | x 0.0 0.0 9.8 31.1 29.2 29.6 | 0.2
Cg | 0.0 0.0 0.2 31.0 30.3 30.5 6.0 | 0.0
Ya | 0.0 0.0 0.2 49.5 24.6 16.3 4.3 | 0.0
Br | 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.8 0.5 0.0 x | NO
Un | x x x x x x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 531.3 | BYE 97.9 81.4 59.9
Ck | 242.5 | BYE 89.4 58.2 22.2
Ha | 140.2 | 100.0 74.5 25.6 7.6
Qu | 143.8 | 100.0 74.5 24.3 7.7
RP | 67.4 | 90.7 20.7 3.5 0.7
Da | 82.5 | 89.5 22.3 4.1 1.1
Cg | 58.0 | 77.7 10.1 1.4 0.3
Ya | 65.3 | 79.1 9.7 1.5 0.4
Br | 30.9 | 25.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
Un | 24.8 | 17.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pr | 23.1 | 16.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
SL | 9.6 | 3.9 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Ralph Baer
Let's Go 'Tute!
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Lugnut,
You have RPI as 0.0% of the time in 9th. If I understand things correctly, that means that for at least one of the 1,000,000 simulations which you made (but less than 0.05%), they were 9th. So in those simulations, one of the bottom four teams finished 8th (or higher). Yet, although Brown has an "x" by 8th, they did not finish 8th in any of your 1,000,000 simulations. What have I missed?
Lugnut,
You have RPI as 0.0% of the time in 9th. If I understand things correctly, that means that for at least one of the 1,000,000 simulations which you made (but less than 0.05%), they were 9th. So in those simulations, one of the bottom four teams finished 8th (or higher). Yet, although Brown has an "x" by 8th, they did not finish 8th in any of your 1,000,000 simulations. What have I missed?
NPC19850330
Sphinx of black quartz judge my vow
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Brown is the only bottom four team that can make it up. I have an x for Union and 8th since they can technically tie Yale, but they lose that tie so it should be a blank. RPI fell to 9th in 73 sims.
Brown is the only bottom four team that can make it up. I have an x for Union and 8th since they can technically tie Yale, but they lose that tie so it should be a blank. RPI fell to 9th in 73 sims.
Ralph Baer
Let's Go 'Tute!
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
My monitor must be tilted, and I could not follow the rows.
My monitor must be tilted, and I could not follow the rows.
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Well, we're zeroing in on it, with just one weekend left to play. Everyone is pretty sure what they'll be doing for the first week of the playoffs, but there is some intrigue whereby RPI could jump up into a bye or Brown could snipe a home-ice spot for the first round. Further, the actual first round matchups are still pretty fluid.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 531,441 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
Well, we're zeroing in on it, with just one weekend left to play. Everyone is pretty sure what they'll be doing for the first week of the playoffs, but there is some intrigue whereby RPI could jump up into a bye or Brown could snipe a home-ice spot for the first round. Further, the actual first round matchups are still pretty fluid.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 531,441 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Quinnipiac
- Harvard
————— - RPI
- Dartmouth
- Yale
- Colgate
————— - Brown
- Union
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 528.6 | [B]79.5[/B] 20.5 | 1.20 | 37.14
Ck | 249.8 | 20.5 [B]79.5[/B] | 1.80 | 34.25
Qu | 145.3 | [B]80.3[/B] 19.1 0.6 | 3.29 | 28.87
Ha | 116.3 | 18.4 [B]65.3[/B] 16.4 | 3.98 | 27.78
RP | 70.5 | 1.3 15.6 [B]60.1[/B] 16.8 6.1 x | 5.11 | 24.74
Da | 78.7 | 16.5 [B]37.1[/B] 28.0 18.4 x | 6.48 | 22.51
Ya | 70.0 | 6.5 35.1 [B]41.6[/B] 16.6 0.3 | 6.69 | 22.15
Cg | 53.1 | x 11.0 24.1 [B]62.1[/B] 2.8 | 7.57 | 20.98
Br | 30.3 | x 0.1 2.9 [B]96.5[/B] 0.4 | 8.97 | 17.57
Un | 24.4 | 0.4 [B]99.6[/B] x | 10.00 | 12.98
Pr | 22.1 | x [B]99.9[/B] 0.1 | 11.00 | 9.41
SL | 12.1 | 0.1 [B]99.9[/B] | 12.00 | 5.63
| KRACH | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 528.6 | 0.5 4.0 26.4 19.3 [B]49.8 [/B]| 37.14
Ck | 249.8 | 8.9 10.0 [B]48.0[/B] 13.4 19.8 | 34.25
Qu | 145.3 | 4.2 5.8 30.6 17.5 [B]41.9[/B] | 28.87
Ha | 116.3 | 4.9 6.4 33.3 16.9 [B]38.6[/B] | 27.78
RP | 70.5 | 24.6 13.4 [B]38.8[/B] 9.9 13.3 | 24.74
Da | 78.7 | 8.3 8.3 [B]38.1[/B] 15.0 30.3 | 22.51
Ya | 70.0 | 12.1 10.6 [B]46.2[/B] 12.6 18.4 | 22.15
Cg | 53.1 | 11.5 11.8 [B]54.4[/B] 11.5 10.7 | 20.98
Br | 30.3 | 26.1 14.6 [B]43.0[/B] 8.8 7.5 | 17.57
Un | 24.4 | [B]47.3[/B] 18.5 26.4 4.7 3.1 | 12.98
Pr | 22.1 | 32.9 15.6 [B]36.3[/B] 7.7 7.6 | 9.41
SL | 12.1 | [B]59.6[/B] 20.9 16.8 2.4 0.3 | 5.63
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Da Ya Cg Br Un Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------------------------
Qu | x x x x x 0.0 0.6 | 99.4
Ha | x x x x x 0.0 16.4 | 83.6
RP | x x x x 6.1 16.9 60.0 | 16.9
Da | x x 18.4 28.1 37.1 16.5 | NO
Ya | x 0.1 16.5 41.5 35.0 6.5 | NO
Cg | x x 62.1 24.1 11.0 x | NO
Br | x 0.3 2.6 0.1 x x | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 528.6 | BYE 97.9 82.4 60.1
Ck | 249.8 | BYE 90.4 60.9 23.9
Qu | 145.3 | 100.0 74.5 26.6 8.1
Ha | 116.3 | 99.6 67.0 18.0 5.1
RP | 70.5 | 93.1 27.7 5.0 1.0
Da | 78.7 | 87.2 20.3 3.7 1.0
Ya | 70.0 | 83.9 15.7 2.6 0.6
Cg | 53.1 | 72.6 5.6 0.7 0.2
Br | 30.3 | 26.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
Un | 24.4 | 17.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pr | 22.1 | 14.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SL | 12.1 | 5.1 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
Midweekend update! HUGE DISCLAIMER: This sim doesn't know how to do the points againt top 4 tiebreaker, so it will break the possible Dartmouth/Yale tie randomly instead of always choosing Dartmouth.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 729 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
Midweekend update! HUGE DISCLAIMER: This sim doesn't know how to do the points againt top 4 tiebreaker, so it will break the possible Dartmouth/Yale tie randomly instead of always choosing Dartmouth.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 729 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Quinnipiac
- Harvard
————— - RPI
- Dartmouth
- Yale
- Colgate
————— - Brown
- Union
- Princeton
- SLU
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 529.1 | [B]100.0[/B] | 1.00 | 37.33
Ck | 239.3 | [B]100.0[/B] | 2.00 | 33.67
Qu | 148.3 | [B]100.0[/B] | 3.00 | 29.29
Ha | 104.8 | 47.1 [B]52.9[/B] | 4.53 | 26.55
RP | 77.4 | [B]52.9[/B] 47.1 | 4.47 | 25.97
Da | 82.4 | [B]50.4[/B] 19.8 29.7 | 6.79 | 23.03
Ya | 73.6 | 32.4 [B]67.6[/B] | 6.68 | 22.71
Cg | 55.4 | 17.2 12.6 [B]70.3[/B] | 7.53 | 21.56
Br | 29.4 | [B]100.0[/B] | 9.00 | 17.14
Un | 23.7 | [B]100.0[/B] | 10.00 | 12.45
Pr | 21.1 | [B]100.0[/B] | 11.00 | 8.86
SL | 12.0 | [B]100.0[/B] | 12.00 | 5.44
| KRACH | 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 529.1 | 27.0 13.4 [B]59.6[/B] | 37.33
Ck | 239.3 | [B]59.6[/B] 13.4 27.0 | 33.67
Qu | 148.3 | 28.7 13.5 [B]57.8[/B] | 29.29
Ha | 104.8 | 15.9 13.4 [B]70.6[/B] | 26.55
RP | 77.4 | [B]44.6[/B] 13.5 41.9 | 25.97
Da | 82.4 | 41.9 13.5 [B]44.6[/B] | 23.03
Ya | 73.6 | [B]57.8[/B] 13.5 28.7 | 22.71
Cg | 55.4 | 15.5 13.4 [B]71.1[/B] | 21.56
Br | 29.4 | 36.3 13.4 [B]50.3[/B] | 17.14
Un | 23.7 | [B]70.6[/B] 13.4 15.9 | 12.45
Pr | 21.1 | [B]50.3[/B] 13.4 36.3 | 8.86
SL | 12.0 | [B]71.1[/B] 13.4 15.5 | 5.44
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossiblePlayoffs:
Code:
| Br Un Pr SL | BYE
------------------------------------
Ha | 52.9 | 47.1
RP | 47.1 | 52.9
Da | 29.7 19.8 50.4 | NO
Ya | 67.6 32.4 | NO
Cg | 70.3 12.6 17.2 | NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
KRACH | 1st QF SF F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 529.1 | BYE 98.0 84.2 62.1
Ck | 239.3 | BYE 87.4 56.5 21.4
Qu | 148.3 | BYE 73.9 30.8 8.7
Ha | 104.8 | 98.5 60.3 14.4 4.1
RP | 77.4 | 97.7 38.1 7.3 1.7
Da | 82.4 | 86.9 18.9 3.4 1.0
Ya | 73.6 | 85.8 16.7 2.6 0.8
Cg | 55.4 | 74.6 6.0 0.8 0.2
Br | 29.4 | 24.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Un | 23.7 | 15.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pr | 21.1 | 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
SL | 12.0 | 3.9 0.0 0.0 x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.