ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

lugnut92 · Nov 4, 2019

Now that we're a healthy 3.8% of the way in to the season, it's time to kick off this year's ECAC KRACH projections thread! As is always the case so early in the year, KRACH is not truly defined until there is a transitive chain between every team in the country, so right now there is a hypothetical tie against a perfectly average hypothetical team to hypothetically make every team's hypothetical KRACH hypothetically real and hypothetically finite. That will be fixed soon enough so whatever.

I don't really feel like trying to dig into this projection other than there is a pretty big gap between 7th and 8th, but that's heavily driven by Brown and Yale having essentially fake KRACH values for now. Everything will get better when we get deeper into the season.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]60.6[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Princeton
Clarkson
Harvard
—————
Quinnipiac
Yale
Brown
Colgate
—————
SLU
RPI
Dartmouth
Union

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  464.2 |  [B]71.4[/B]  17.8   6.6   2.7   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.46 | 34.95
Pr |  195.7 |   9.8  [B]24.5[/B]  22.4  17.8  12.5   7.6   4.0   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.45 | 29.07
Ck |  186.9 |   8.5  [B]22.4[/B]  22.0  18.6  13.6   8.6   4.7   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.60 | 28.71
Ha |  167.1 |   6.6  19.2  [B]21.2[/B]  19.6  15.3  10.1   5.8   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.83 | 28.17
Qu |  134.9 |   2.6   9.7  14.5  18.0  [B]19.9[/B]  16.6  12.3   4.5   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0 |  4.76 | 26.05
Ya |  100.0 |   0.6   3.1   6.4  10.9  16.7  23.0  [B]23.2[/B]  10.4   4.0   1.3   0.4   0.1 |  5.91 | 23.51
Br |  100.0 |   0.5   3.1   6.4  10.8  16.7  22.9  [B]23.3[/B]  10.5   4.1   1.3   0.4   0.1 |  5.91 | 23.50
Cg |   47.8 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.3   5.5  12.0  [B]27.4[/B]  23.7  15.6   8.5   3.7 |  8.59 | 17.22
SL |   41.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   3.6   8.6  22.0  [B]25.8[/B]  19.8  12.1   6.1 |  9.03 | 16.12
RP |   36.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.5   4.5  14.1  22.7  [B]27.1[/B]  19.6   9.9 |  9.65 | 14.48
Da |   24.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.1   4.9  11.0  19.7  29.5  [B]33.4[/B] | 10.71 | 11.64
Un |   17.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.2   6.4  14.5  29.6  [B]46.8[/B] | 11.11 | 10.59

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  464.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.8   5.5   7.4   9.4  11.1  [B]12.0[/B]  11.8  10.6   8.7   6.3   4.1   2.2   1.0   0.3   0.1 | 34.95
Pr |  195.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   2.9   4.3   5.8   7.4   8.7   9.8  [B]10.3[/B]  10.2   9.4   8.0   6.4   4.8   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 29.07
Ck |  186.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   2.3   3.4   4.8   6.3   7.9   9.1  10.0  [B]10.4[/B]   9.9   8.9   7.5   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.71
Ha |  167.1 |                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.2   5.6   7.2   8.7   9.8  [B]10.3[/B]  10.2   9.4   8.1   6.6   4.9   3.4   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.17
Qu |  134.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.1   3.1   4.4   5.9   7.3   8.7   9.6  [B]10.1[/B]   9.8   9.1   7.8   6.3   4.7   3.3   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.05
Ya |  100.0 |                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.7   5.1   6.8   8.4   9.8  [B]10.4  10.4[/B]   9.7   8.6   7.0   5.3   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x             | 23.51
Br |  100.0 |                 x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.7   5.2   6.8   8.4   9.7  10.3  [B]10.4[/B]   9.8   8.6   6.9   5.3   3.7   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x             | 23.50
Cg |   47.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   2.9   4.3   5.9   7.4   8.8   9.8  [B]10.1[/B]   9.9   9.0   7.8   6.3   4.8   3.4   2.3   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.22
SL |   41.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.7   9.1  10.0  [B]10.2[/B]   9.9   8.9   7.6   6.1   4.6   3.2   2.1   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.12
RP |   36.6 |               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.6   5.5   7.3   9.1  10.4  [B]11.0[/B]  10.7   9.8   8.2   6.6   4.9   3.4   2.2   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x             | 14.48
Da |   24.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.1   7.1   9.0  10.5  [B]11.1[/B]  11.0  10.1   8.6   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.64
Un |   17.6 |               0.1   0.4   1.2   2.7   4.9   7.4   9.9  11.7  [B]12.5[/B]  12.1  10.7   8.7   6.6   4.5   2.9   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x             | 10.59
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Pr    Ck    Ha    Qu    Ya    Br    Cg    SL    RP    Da    Un |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.6 |  98.6
Pr |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   2.0   2.8   4.1   7.3   8.7 |  74.5
Ck |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   2.3   3.2   4.7   8.1   9.7 |  71.4
Ha |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   2.7   3.8   5.5   9.5  11.1 |  66.6
Qu |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.3   5.2   7.0   9.8  14.3  16.3 |  44.9
Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2         0.7   8.9  11.5  15.1  18.1  18.7 |  20.9
Br |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7         8.9  11.6  15.1  18.2  18.5 |  20.8
Cg |     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.5   1.5        15.1  13.2   8.6   6.5 |   1.4
SL |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.4   1.5  11.9         9.6   5.9   4.4 |   0.7
RP |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   1.0   1.0   6.6   6.1         2.9   2.3 |   0.2
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.3   1.9   1.7   1.4         0.5 |   0.0
Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   0.7   0.6   0.3       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Nov 18, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Fake tie nonsense! The gulf between 4th/5th and 6th is vast! Also between 2nd and 3rd but those end up in the same place so whatever.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]49.1[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000

:

Cornell
Harvard
Clarkson
Quinnipiac
—————
Dartmouth
Colgate
Brown
RPI
—————
Princeton
Yale
SLU
Union

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1562.5 |  [B]65.0[/B]  33.9   1.0   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.36 | 39.15
Ha |  880.4 |  34.7  [B]61.3[/B]   3.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.70 | 37.70
Ck |  195.1 |   0.2   3.5  [B]50.6[/B]  27.7  16.3   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.62 | 29.47
Qu |  149.4 |   0.0   0.7  23.0  [B]34.9[/B]  34.7   5.1   1.2   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.26 | 27.21
Da |  128.7 |   0.0   0.6  21.4  34.9  [B]36.8[/B]   5.0   1.0   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.29 | 27.11
Cg |   46.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.1   5.2  [B]29.6[/B]  25.4  17.0  10.8   6.3   3.2   1.3 |  7.33 | 18.15
Br |   49.3 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   4.5  [B]30.1[/B]  25.0  16.9  11.0   6.6   3.5   1.4 |  7.38 | 17.95
RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.4  13.8  19.0  [B]21.4[/B]  18.5  13.6   8.4   3.8 |  8.35 | 15.94
Pr |   39.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   8.8  13.4  16.9  [B]18.1[/B]  16.8  14.1  10.8 |  9.04 | 14.64
Ya |   26.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.6   6.4  11.7  16.3  19.9  21.4  [B]21.6[/B] |  9.94 | 12.83
SL |   25.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.6   5.8  10.2  15.1  19.9  [B]23.2[/B]  22.9 | 10.05 | 12.58
Un |   16.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8   2.5   5.4  10.0  16.8  26.2  [B]38.2[/B] | 10.71 | 11.29

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1562.5 |                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.5   6.3  10.0  13.9  16.5  [B]16.8[/B]  14.2   9.5   4.6   1.5 | 39.15
Ha |  880.4 |                                                           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.8   5.1   8.2  11.8  14.8  [B]16.1[/B]  14.8  11.5   7.2   3.7   1.2   0.4 | 37.70
Ck |  195.1 |                                   x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.6   6.7   8.8  10.8  12.0  [B]12.4[/B]  11.3   9.6   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0             | 29.47
Qu |  149.4 |                             x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.4   5.2   7.2   9.4  11.0  [B]12.1[/B]  11.9  10.9   8.8   6.6   4.3   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 27.21
Da |  128.7 |                                         x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.4   5.4   7.5   9.8  11.4  [B]12.4[/B]  12.1  10.9   8.6   6.2   3.9   2.3   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x                   | 27.11
Cg |   46.7 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.8   7.7   9.7  11.0  [B]11.7[/B]  11.2  10.0   8.2   6.2   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                         | 18.15
Br |   49.3 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.1   8.1  10.2  11.5  [B]12.0[/B]  11.2   9.9   7.8   5.8   3.8   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                 | 17.95
RP |   39.4 |                           0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.9   6.0   8.6  10.5  12.1  [B]12.3[/B]  11.7   9.9   7.8   5.5   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                           | 15.94
Pr |   39.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.8   3.2   4.8   6.8   8.7  10.4  11.3  [B]11.4[/B]  10.4   9.0   7.1   5.2   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                           | 14.64
Ya |   26.8 |         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   2.4   4.3   6.4   8.8  10.6  [B]12.1  12.1[/B]  11.4   9.5   7.5   5.3   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                             | 12.83
SL |   25.4 |         0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   4.9   7.1   9.4  11.0  [B]11.9[/B]  11.7  10.6   8.8   6.8   4.8   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                     | 12.58
Un |   16.7 |                     0.3   0.9   2.6   4.9   8.1  10.9  13.1  [B]13.6[/B]  12.9  10.9   8.3   5.8   3.6   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 11.29
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ha    Ck    Qu    Da    Cg    Br    RP    Pr    Ya    SL    Un |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x     x           x     x   0.3   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.8   4.1   6.7 |  82.0
Qu |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.7   0.7   2.1   4.6   8.7   9.5  15.0 |  58.6
Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.6   0.8   1.9   5.2   9.6   9.9  15.2 |  56.9
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         4.6  10.5  13.4  16.2  16.3  16.2 |   1.2
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.9        10.4  13.3  15.5  16.4  16.0 |   0.9
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.1   5.4        11.1  12.0  11.9  10.0 |   0.2
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.4   4.5   8.0         8.5   8.0   6.6 |   0.1
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.3   2.3   5.1   4.5         3.8   2.8 |   0.0
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.1   2.7   3.7   3.9   3.5         2.8 |   0.0
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.3   1.3   1.8   1.9   1.3   1.2       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Nov 25, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

I would really appreciate it if Cornell and Harvard would lose (or even just tie) a game so I could dump the fake tie. While it still exists, it's a little silly to look to hard at the exact projections. Anyway, here we are at the first little "break" in the season as none of the ECAC teams will be playing league contests this holiday weekend.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]44.8[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000

:

Cornell
Harvard
Clarkson
Dartmouth
—————
Quinnipiac
Colgate
Brown
RPI
—————
Yale
Princeton
Union
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 2152.0 |  [B]74.1[/B]  25.3   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.27 | 40.05
Ha |  923.0 |  25.6  [B]68.2[/B]   6.1   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.81 | 37.69
Ck |  230.1 |   0.3   6.2  [B]73.5[/B]  16.6   2.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.17 | 31.12
Da |  127.5 |   0.0   0.3  16.5  [B]55.3[/B]  18.7   6.6   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.23 | 26.74
Qu |   95.7 |     x   0.0   2.5  16.5  [B]37.0[/B]  23.5  12.7   5.1   1.9   0.6   0.1   0.0 |  5.54 | 22.80
Cg |   64.3 |     x   0.0   0.5   7.9  22.9  [B]30.1[/B]  21.6  10.3   4.5   1.7   0.4   0.1 |  6.25 | 20.97
Br |   61.0 |     x   0.0   0.1   2.9  14.0  24.3  [B]28.4[/B]  16.5   8.7   3.9   1.1   0.2 |  6.89 | 19.33
RP |   41.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   1.8   5.9  12.7  21.7  [B]24.7[/B]  20.9   9.3   2.7 |  8.74 | 15.40
Ya |   37.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   4.3  11.0  22.7  [B]24.5[/B]  21.3  11.1   3.6 |  8.91 | 15.08
Pr |   41.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.5   4.6  10.1  18.3  [B]22.9[/B]  22.4  13.6   6.4 |  9.10 | 14.73
Un |   16.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.1   3.5   8.6  18.2  [B]36.5[/B]  31.7 | 10.80 | 10.83
SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.4   4.1  11.0  27.9  [B]55.3[/B] | 11.30 |  9.25

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 2152.0 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.2   6.2  10.4  15.1  [B]18.4  18.4[/B]  14.6   8.3   3.1 | 40.05
Ha |  923.0 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.6   4.9   8.2  12.1  15.2  [B]16.7[/B]  15.2  11.5   6.7   3.4   1.0   0.3 | 37.69
Ck |  230.1 |                                                     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.4   9.9  12.1  [B]13.2  13.2[/B]  11.3   9.0   6.0   3.6   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0             | 31.12
Da |  127.5 |                                   x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.1   6.2   8.2  10.5  11.9  [B]12.5[/B]  11.7  10.1   7.7   5.4   3.2   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 26.74
Qu |   95.7 |                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   6.2   8.2  10.2  11.5  [B]12.1[/B]  11.5  10.0   7.8   5.6   3.5   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                           | 22.80
Cg |   64.3 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   5.9   8.1  10.4  11.8  [B]12.5[/B]  11.8  10.3   8.0   5.7   3.6   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                               | 20.97
Br |   61.0 |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.5  11.7  12.5  [B]12.6[/B]  11.0   9.1   6.5   4.3   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                             | 19.33
RP |   41.1 |                     0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   5.1   7.3   9.9  11.6  [B]12.6[/B]  12.1  10.9   8.7   6.5   4.3   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                       | 15.40
Ya |   37.4 |               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.8   3.5   5.5   8.2  10.4  12.2  [B]12.7[/B]  12.2  10.4   8.3   5.7   3.7   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 15.08
Pr |   41.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.6   6.5   8.8  10.6  11.8  [B]11.9[/B]  11.0   9.3   7.3   5.2   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                             | 14.73
Un |   16.5 |               0.4   1.3   3.4   6.1   9.6  12.3  [B]14.0[/B]  13.9  12.3   9.7   7.0   4.6   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 10.83
SL |   17.9 |   0.3   0.9   2.7   5.0   8.2  11.0  13.2  [B]13.8[/B]  12.8  10.8   8.2   5.7   3.5   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             |  9.25
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ha    Ck    Da    Qu    Cg    Br    RP    Ya    Pr    Un    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.1   1.7 |  96.7
Da |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   2.0   2.8   8.6  12.4 |  72.2
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0         0.4   1.0   7.7   7.9   9.7  22.6  29.2 |  19.0
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0   0.3         1.7  10.8  11.9  13.1  23.5  23.5 |   8.5
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.4   1.2        13.6  14.0  15.4  20.2  18.2 |   3.1
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.7   3.7        12.7  11.0   7.4   5.0 |   0.3
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.7   1.4   3.1  12.3        11.3   6.0   4.4 |   0.1
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.5   3.3   9.7  10.3         5.4   3.6 |   0.2
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   1.2   1.2         0.2 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.4   0.2       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

LynahFan · Nov 25, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Remind me - are you calculating your own KRACH based just on ECAC games? Or do the games during this break matter for your purposes, too?

I think CHN and others keep the hypothetical tie for every team all season, even after it’s not a mathematical necessity. Whelan has tried to explain to me several times why this is a good idea, but all that seems to register in my engineer brain is that it damps out extremes which can exist because the given set of games in a season is really itself just a sample of the (theoretically infinite) population of games that could be played. I.e. choosing a small sample of games (which even a full season is small compared to infinity) tends to result in more extreme ratings than the true underlying ratings should be, because in a small set of games, a “good” team could get lucky and look “great.” Keeping the tie dampens that effect - perhaps too much in some cases, but apparently it’s a decent first-order approximation of the right amount of damping needed to cancel out the sampling error.

Please don’t pass this on to Whelan - I have gotten plenty of Fs from him over the years; don’t need another!

lugnut92 · Nov 25, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

LynahFan said:
Remind me - are you calculating your own KRACH based just on ECAC games? Or do the games during this break matter for your purposes, too?

I think CHN and others keep the hypothetical tie for every team all season, even after it’s not a mathematical necessity. Whelan has tried to explain to me several times why this is a good idea, but all that seems to register in my engineer brain is that it damps out extremes which can exist because the given set of games in a season is really itself just a sample of the (theoretically infinite) population of games that could be played. I.e. choosing a small sample of games (which even a full season is small compared to infinity) tends to result in more extreme ratings than the true underlying ratings should be, because in a small set of games, a “good” team could get lucky and look “great.” Keeping the tie dampens that effect - perhaps too much in some cases, but apparently it’s a decent first-order approximation of the right amount of damping needed to cancel out the sampling error.

Please don’t pass this on to Whelan - I have gotten plenty of Fs from him over the years; don’t need another!

I do calculate my own KRACH, but it's based on all NCAA games, so the games over the break will cause shifts in the projection. I guess there might not be any reason to dump the hypothetical tie, and it would keep the ratings more consistent over the course of the entire season. I haven't done really any work to see how the projection could be improved over the years, I just take what smarter mathematical minds have given me and write little python scripts for fun.

lugnut92 · Dec 2, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

One undefeated Ivy down, one to go. No changes in the order of the teams after the holiday's games. There's a lot of **** teams in the league this year.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]44.8[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Harvard
Clarkson
Dartmouth
—————
Quinnipiac
Colgate
Brown
RPI
—————
Yale
Princeton
Union
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. At this point in the season, a hypothetical tie is included in each team's record to make all ratings real and finite.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1779.7 |  [B]91.5[/B]   8.1   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 40.55
Ha |  322.7 |   7.6  [B]66.3[/B]  24.1   1.8   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.21 | 35.21
Ck |  213.4 |   0.9  24.4  [B]60.0[/B]  11.6   2.7   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.92 | 32.16
Da |   97.1 |   0.0   1.0  10.2  [B]46.8[/B]  27.4  11.8   2.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.48 | 26.35
Qu |  103.3 |   0.0   0.3   4.4  27.6  [B]38.8[/B]  21.3   5.6   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  5.02 | 24.58
Cg |   61.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.8  11.2  24.3  [B]39.7[/B]  15.4   5.6   2.0   0.7   0.2   0.0 |  5.87 | 22.02
Br |   34.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   4.2  14.6  [B]33.4[/B]  22.1  13.2   7.2   3.4   1.1 |  7.64 | 17.55
RP |   32.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   6.4  18.7  [B]23.5[/B]  21.4  15.5   9.0   3.9 |  8.59 | 15.53
Ya |   27.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.0  12.0  21.5  [B]22.5[/B]  19.0  13.7   7.7 |  9.12 | 14.44
Pr |   26.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0   8.1  13.8  18.2  [B]20.7[/B]  19.7  17.1 |  9.74 | 13.27
Un |   15.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.9   6.8  12.4  19.7  27.6  [B]29.9[/B] | 10.50 | 11.58
SL |   20.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.7   4.7   9.7  17.1  26.4  [B]40.2[/B] | 10.81 | 10.77

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1779.7 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   4.1   7.8  12.8  17.6  [B]20.2[/B]  18.1  11.8   4.5 | 40.55
Ha |  322.7 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.4   6.9   9.8  12.6  14.2  [B]14.3[/B]  12.4   9.6   5.9   3.2   1.3   0.5   0.1   0.0 | 35.21
Ck |  213.4 |                                                     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.9   7.3   9.7  11.8  [B]13.1[/B]  12.9  11.6   9.0   6.3   3.7   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 32.16
Da |   97.1 |                                   x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.2   4.9   7.0   9.2  11.0  12.0  [B]12.1[/B]  10.9   9.1   6.7   4.7   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 26.35
Qu |  103.3 |                       x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.4   6.4   8.6  10.8  12.0  [B]12.5[/B]  11.5   9.8   7.3   5.1   3.0   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                           | 24.58
Cg |   61.1 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.7   8.0  10.0  11.7  [B]12.2[/B]  11.8  10.3   8.2   5.8   3.8   2.2   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                               | 22.02
Br |   34.8 |                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.5   7.0   9.2  11.5  12.4  [B]12.7[/B]  11.2   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                             | 17.55
RP |   32.5 |                     0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   2.7   4.8   6.9   9.6  11.3  [B]12.5[/B]  12.2  11.1   9.0   6.8   4.6   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                       | 15.53
Ya |   27.3 |               0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   2.7   4.9   7.1   9.9  11.6  [B]12.9[/B]  12.4  11.2   8.9   6.6   4.3   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 14.44
Pr |   26.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.3   7.7   9.8  11.5  [B]12.0[/B]  11.7  10.3   8.4   6.2   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 13.27
Un |   15.5 |               0.2   0.8   2.2   4.2   7.2  10.0  12.5  [B]13.4[/B]  13.1  11.4   9.1   6.5   4.2   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 11.58
SL |   20.1 |   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.2   6.5   9.4  11.4  [B]12.9[/B]  12.7  11.6   9.5   7.1   4.8   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 10.77
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ha    Ck    Da    Qu    Cg    Br    RP    Ya    Pr    Un    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x | 100.0
Ha |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1 |  99.8
Ck |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.2 |  96.9
Da |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.9   2.5   4.4   7.7  11.7  14.6 |  57.9
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0         0.1   1.6   4.9   7.1  12.2  18.7  22.7 |  32.2
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         3.2   8.2  11.9  16.1  22.4  23.2 |  12.0
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6        13.0  15.0  16.1  15.4  14.0 |   0.8
RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   6.6        13.7  11.1   9.6   8.1 |   0.2
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   5.1  10.8         8.5   6.2   5.7 |   0.1
Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   4.3   6.2   6.5         3.7   2.8 |   0.0
Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0   2.5   2.4   2.2         0.9 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.1   1.6   1.5   1.2   1.0       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Dec 8, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Cornell is dead! No more hypothetical tie! Despite all of the huge gulfs that currently exist (nine points between 6th and 7th!), there is actually some drama around the bye line. How exciting.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]40.6[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Harvard
Dartmouth
—————
Colgate
Quinnipiac
Yale
RPI
—————
Princeton
Brown
Union
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1044.0 |  [B]91.9[/B]   7.7   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 38.92	
Ck |  220.8 |   7.3  [B]65.9[/B]  18.3   5.9   2.0   0.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  2.31 | 34.02
Ha |  116.2 |   0.6  18.2  [B]43.4[/B]  22.1  11.2   4.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  3.38 | 30.47
Da |   88.1 |   0.1   4.6  16.4  [B]28.7[/B]  28.3  21.1   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.47 | 27.84
Cg |   74.4 |   0.1   2.3  15.0  27.0  [B]30.7[/B]  23.8   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.62 | 27.13
Qu |   95.4 |   0.0   1.3   6.5  16.2  27.3  [B]45.0[/B]   3.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  5.20 | 25.71
Ya |   24.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5  [B]51.4[/B]  23.6  12.0   5.9   2.5   0.6 |  7.74 | 16.90
RP |   21.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9  20.2  [B]29.6[/B]  22.8  14.9   8.3   3.1 |  8.68 | 14.93
Pr |   18.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5  12.1  17.0  [B]18.7[/B]  18.6  17.9  15.2 |  9.57 | 13.25
Br |   13.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   6.4  15.3  21.2  [B]23.1[/B]  21.7  12.1 |  9.74 | 12.89
Un |   10.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.5   9.6  16.8  23.3  [B]26.5[/B]  20.3 | 10.20 | 11.92
SL |   12.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.5   4.3   8.4  14.1  23.0  [B]48.7[/B] | 10.99 | 10.02

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1044.0 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   2.8   6.0  10.7  16.4  [B]20.7[/B]  20.5  14.7   6.4 | 38.92
Ck |  220.8 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.7   3.0   4.9   7.5  10.2  12.5  [B]13.9[/B]  13.6  12.0   8.8   5.8   3.0   1.3   0.3   0.1 | 34.02
Ha |  116.2 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   4.0   6.4   9.3  11.9  [B]13.8  13.8[/B]  12.7   9.8   7.0   3.9   2.1   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 30.47
Da |   88.1 |                                               x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.6   5.6   8.3  10.7  12.6  [B]13.1[/B]  12.7  10.5   8.1   5.2   3.1   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                   | 27.84
Cg |   74.4 |                                                           x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   5.0   7.4  10.3  12.3  [B]13.8[/B]  13.2  11.7   8.7   6.0   3.3   1.7   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 27.13
Qu |   95.4 |                       x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.0   8.5  10.7  12.4  [B]12.8[/B]  12.2  10.3   7.8   5.1   3.0   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                               | 25.71
Ya |   24.6 |                                       0.0   0.1   0.6   1.4   3.3   5.4   8.9  11.3  [B]14.0[/B]  13.9  13.1  10.4   7.7   4.8   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                             | 16.90
RP |   21.7 |                                 0.1   0.4   1.4   2.9   5.8   8.6  12.0  13.6  [B]14.4[/B]  12.9  10.4   7.4   4.8   2.8   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                       | 14.93
Pr |   18.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.3   7.8   9.9  11.7  [B]12.3[/B]  11.9  10.4   8.5   6.2   4.1   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 13.25
Br |   13.7 |                           0.3   0.9   3.0   5.3   9.3  12.0  [B]14.8[/B]  14.5  13.4  10.3   7.3   4.4   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.89
Un |   10.5 |                           0.8   2.2   5.5   9.0  13.0  14.9  [B]15.3[/B]  13.3  10.3   7.1   4.3   2.4   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 11.92
SL |   12.7 |   0.1   0.5   1.5   3.1   5.8   8.5  11.4  13.1  [B]13.6[/B]  12.3  10.4   7.7   5.2   3.2   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 10.02
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Cg    Qu    Ya    RP    Pr    Br    Un    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.6   1.2 |  97.4
Ha |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.5   2.4   3.4   6.4 |  84.3
Da |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.8   2.6   8.3   8.3  11.5  18.6 |  49.8
Cg |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.9   2.9   9.1   9.3  12.8  20.6 |  44.4
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.4   5.4  12.7  13.7  18.4  24.2 |  24.1
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0        15.4  16.2  18.5  17.9  10.8 |   0.0
RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.1        11.9  14.7  11.8   6.3 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.2   9.0         7.0   5.6   2.8 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.5   7.1   5.0         3.9   2.4 |   0.0
Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.2   4.2   3.0   2.8         0.9 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   1.6   1.2   1.1   1.0       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Dec 12, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Midweek update, now I sim the playoffs too. These numbers do account for the games that occurred since Sunday.

Code:

     Rating |   1st    QF    SF     F
Cr | 1101.8 | [B]100.0[/B]  [B]99.8[/B]  [B]91.7[/B]  [B]78.8[/B]
Ck |  231.6 | [B]100.0[/B]  [B]91.3[/B]  [B]59.8[/B]  13.3
Ha |  129.5 |  [B]99.6[/B]  [B]70.1[/B]  23.6   3.8
Da |  100.4 |  [B]97.8[/B]  [B]52.9[/B]  11.7   1.9
Cg |   80.6 |  [B]96.1[/B]  38.9   6.9   1.0
Qu |   90.4 |  [B]94.7[/B]  38.5   5.9   1.1
Ya |   38.8 |  [B]74.3[/B]   5.9   0.3   0.1
Pr |   28.0 |  [B]49.9[/B]   1.4   0.0   0.0
RP |   24.0 |  45.8   0.9   0.0   0.0
Br |   15.3 |  20.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
Un |   11.6 |  12.2   0.1   0.0     x
SL |   13.1 |   8.9   0.0   0.0   0.0

lugnut92 · Dec 16, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

No league games this week, but there were a fair few games played by ECAC teams, so our KRACH values have adjusted a bit. There are some pretty close fights at the breaks, with less than a point separating Colgate and Dartmouth for the final bye and RPI and Princeton for home ice. As I posted earlier, I have added a playoff simulation to this program. It unsurprisingly currently has Cornell as the overwhelming favorite for the Whitelaw, but another loss will bring them back down to the pack.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]40.6[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Harvard
Colgate
—————
Dartmouth
Quinnipiac
Yale
RPI
—————
Princeton
Union
Brown
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1135.7 |  [B]89.1[/B]  10.4   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.11 | 38.84
Ck |  290.2 |  10.2  [B]71.4[/B]  14.5   2.9   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.13 | 34.66
Ha |  129.7 |   0.5  14.4  [B]52.0[/B]  21.2   8.9   2.8   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.33 | 30.19
Cg |   82.0 |   0.0   1.6  17.0  [B]33.3[/B]  28.5  17.3   2.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.50 | 26.72
Da |   75.8 |   0.0   1.6  10.9  26.4  [B]32.1[/B]  25.1   3.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.80 | 26.21
Qu |   92.7 |   0.0   0.6   5.0  15.7  27.2  [B]40.7[/B]   8.5   1.6   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  5.37 | 24.51
Ya |   41.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.1  10.0  [B]50.9[/B]  21.0   9.6   4.3   1.5   0.3 |  7.45 | 18.18
RP |   26.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6  13.5  [B]28.1[/B]  25.2  17.8  10.3   3.3 |  8.87 | 15.06
Pr |   28.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.7  13.3  [B]21.3[/B]  20.4  18.1  15.5   9.3 |  9.23 | 14.43
Un |   16.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.1  12.6  19.9  [B]24.9[/B]  24.2  13.9 |  9.93 | 12.83
Br |   16.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7  12.1  18.6  24.0  [B]28.0[/B]  13.3 | 10.00 | 12.80
SL |   14.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.6   5.7  10.8  20.4  [B]59.9[/B] | 11.27 |  9.57

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1135.7 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.3   3.1   6.4  11.2  16.6  [B]20.5[/B]  20.0  14.1   6.1 | 38.84
Ck |  290.2 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.7   8.4  11.2  13.5  [B]14.3[/B]  13.6  11.0   7.9   4.4   2.1   0.6   0.2 | 34.66
Ha |  129.7 |                                                                 x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.8   4.8   7.1  10.0  12.3  [B]13.9[/B]  13.4  12.0   8.9   6.2   3.4   1.8   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0             | 30.19
Cg |   82.0 |                                                           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   6.0   8.5  11.2  12.8  [B]13.5[/B]  12.3  10.5   7.5   5.0   2.7   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 26.72
Da |   75.8 |                                               x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.2   5.1   7.4   9.6  11.7  12.5  [B]12.6[/B]  11.0   8.9   6.3   4.1   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 26.21
Qu |   92.7 |                       x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.8   4.5   6.6   8.8  11.0  12.1  [B]12.4[/B]  11.4   9.7   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                               | 24.51
Ya |   41.1 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.5   2.7   5.2   7.6  10.8  12.4  [B]13.9[/B]  12.8  11.3   8.3   5.9   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                             | 18.18
RP |   26.2 |                                 0.1   0.4   1.3   2.7   5.6   8.2  11.6  13.2  [B]14.2[/B]  12.7  10.7   7.8   5.3   3.1   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                       | 15.06
Pr |   28.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   5.1   7.2   9.5  11.0  [B]12.1[/B]  11.8  10.7   8.7   6.7   4.5   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                 | 14.43
Un |   16.7 |                           0.4   1.1   3.3   5.8   9.6  12.3  [B]14.4[/B]  14.1  12.7   9.9   7.1   4.5   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 12.83
Br |   16.6 |                           0.4   1.1   3.3   5.7   9.8  12.2  [B]14.7[/B]  14.3  13.0   9.9   7.1   4.3   2.4   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.80
SL |   14.4 |   0.2   0.7   2.2   4.2   7.2  10.0  12.5  [B]13.4[/B]  13.3  11.4   9.0   6.4   4.3   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             |  9.57
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Cg    Da    Qu    Ya    RP    Pr    Un    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.5 |  99.1
Ha |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.3   1.9   2.0   5.8 |  88.1
Cg |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.5   3.0   5.8   8.6   9.3  20.9 |  51.9
Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.7   4.2   7.7  11.4  12.3  24.6 |  39.0
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.0   7.3  10.6  16.3  17.2  25.7 |  21.4
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1        17.2  16.5  20.4  19.3  10.3 |   0.4
RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.5        11.8  11.6  11.3   4.0 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.4  12.2         8.5   8.3   2.9 |   0.0
Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.2   5.8   4.7         3.5   0.9 |   0.0
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.0   5.2   4.2   3.3         1.3 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.9   0.7   0.7   0.5       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 1135.7 | 100.0  99.8  92.3  76.9
Ck |  290.2 | 100.0  94.8  68.4  17.0
Ha |  129.7 |  99.5  71.6  20.6   3.3
Cg |   82.0 |  95.8  44.8   6.9   1.0
Da |   75.8 |  94.0  38.5   5.4   0.7
Qu |   92.7 |  94.0  42.3   6.0   1.1
Ya |   41.1 |  72.7   5.8   0.3   0.0
RP |   26.2 |  46.8   1.0   0.0   0.0
Pr |   28.4 |  44.9   1.1   0.0   0.0
Un |   16.7 |  21.4   0.2   0.0   0.0
Br |   16.6 |  20.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
SL |   14.4 |  10.0   0.0   0.0     x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Ralph Baer · Dec 16, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

It was also 10[SUP]40.6[/SUP] possibilities last time. I suspect that number is actually smaller now.

lugnut92 · Dec 17, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Ralph Baer said:
It was also 10[SUP]40.6[/SUP] possibilities last time. I suspect that number is actually smaller now.

As there were no ECAC games played, that doesn't actually change. The number of possibilities is equal to 3[sup]k[/sup], where k is the number of ECAC games remaining.

Ralph Baer · Dec 17, 2019

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

lugnut92 said:
As there were no ECAC games played, that doesn't actually change. The number of possibilities is equal to 3[sup]k[/sup], where k is the number of ECAC games remaining.

Of course.

Thanks for the explanation.

lugnut92 · Jan 1, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

The only league games played since the last update saw Quinnipiac sweep Princeton in their home-and-home series, but obviously there were a number of non-ECAC contests that have shifted KRACH values around. Here's where we stand at the dawn of 2020:

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]39.6[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Harvard
Dartmouth
—————
Colgate
Quinnipiac
Yale
RPI
—————
Brown
Union
Princeton
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1257.4 |  [B]90.8[/B]   8.5   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.10 | 38.72
Ck |  304.8 |   7.7  [B]60.1[/B]  22.6   7.0   2.1   0.5   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  2.37 | 33.82
Ha |  200.0 |   1.3  24.2  [B]46.6[/B]  18.2   7.2   2.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.13 | 31.14
Da |  133.9 |   0.2   4.9  16.7  [B]34.8[/B]  25.9  16.3   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.35 | 28.01
Cg |   82.5 |   0.0   1.0   7.4  21.0  32.2  [B]34.0[/B]   3.7   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  5.04 | 25.84
Qu |  119.3 |   0.0   1.2   6.0  18.6  31.0  [B]37.6[/B]   5.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  5.15 | 25.76
Ya |   50.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5   7.7  [B]61.8[/B]  17.8   6.9   2.9   1.0   0.2 |  7.34 | 18.33
RP |   30.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0  13.6  [B]32.9[/B]  24.2  16.0   9.1   3.1 |  8.80 | 14.84
Br |   20.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.4  16.3  22.0  [B]24.0[/B]  22.4  10.7 |  9.75 | 12.95
Un |   20.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.7  16.1  23.0  [B]24.3[/B]  20.5  11.2 |  9.73 | 12.86
Pr |   26.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.8  12.4  16.7  20.2  [B]24.4[/B]  21.3 | 10.11 | 12.13
SL |   17.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   3.4   7.1  12.6  22.6  [B]53.5[/B] | 11.13 |  9.61

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1257.4 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.6   3.5   7.0  11.8  17.0  [B]20.3[/B]  19.1  13.1   5.6 | 38.72
Ck |  304.8 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.4   5.5   8.0  10.7  12.7  [B]13.9[/B]  13.1  11.3   8.1   5.3   2.7   1.2   0.3   0.1 | 33.82
Ha |  200.0 |                                                                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.7   4.7   7.3  10.1  12.7  13.9  [B]14.0[/B]  11.8   9.2   5.7   3.3   1.4   0.6   0.1   0.0             | 31.14
Da |  133.9 |                                               x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.3   5.3   7.8  10.2  12.3  [B]13.1[/B]  12.9  10.9   8.6   5.7   3.5   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                   | 28.01
Cg |   82.5 |                                                           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.0   3.7   5.7   8.4  10.7  12.8  [B]13.1[/B]  12.7  10.4   8.0   5.1   3.1   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 25.84
Qu |  119.3 |                                               x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.7   5.9   8.6  10.9  12.9  [B]13.2[/B]  12.6  10.3   7.8   4.9   2.9   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                               | 25.76
Ya |   50.7 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.4   4.7   7.1  10.4  12.2  [B]14.0[/B]  13.1  11.9   8.7   6.2   3.7   2.1   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                             | 18.33
RP |   30.3 |                                 0.1   0.4   1.5   3.1   6.1   8.9  12.3  13.6  [B]14.2[/B]  12.5  10.2   7.1   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                       | 14.84
Br |   20.2 |                           0.3   0.9   2.9   5.1   9.1  11.8  [B]14.5[/B]  14.4  13.4  10.4   7.5   4.7   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.95
Un |   20.7 |                           0.4   1.1   3.1   5.7   9.5  12.2  [B]14.4[/B]  14.2  12.8  10.1   7.2   4.5   2.5   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 12.86
Pr |   26.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.8   3.1   5.5   7.9  10.7  12.2  [B]13.1[/B]  12.2  10.7   8.2   5.8   3.6   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.13
SL |   17.5 |   0.2   0.7   2.1   4.0   7.1   9.9  12.5  [B]13.5[/B]  13.3  11.6   9.2   6.5   4.3   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             |  9.61
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Cg    Qu    Ya    RP    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.5   1.3 |  97.4
Ha |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.5   1.4   1.3   2.1   4.3 |  90.3
Da |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.3   2.4   6.9   6.5   9.6  17.6 |  56.6
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   4.7  12.4  11.6  16.0  25.1 |  29.5
Qu |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.5   5.4  12.7  12.6  16.7  26.1 |  25.9
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0        15.8  20.7  21.8  18.5  11.9 |   0.2
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.1        14.8  14.6  10.1   5.0 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   7.7         5.2   4.0   2.0 |   0.0
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   5.2         4.4   1.3 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.2   6.3   3.9   3.9         1.2 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.3   0.8   1.0   0.6       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 1257.4 | 100.0  99.8  90.3  75.7
Ck |  304.8 | 100.0  92.0  57.5  14.3
Ha |  200.0 |  99.8  78.1  29.7   6.0
Da |  133.9 |  97.8  55.6  11.9   2.2
Cg |   82.5 |  92.1  26.3   3.5   0.5
Qu |  119.3 |  95.2  40.5   6.7   1.3
Ya |   50.7 |  76.0   5.9   0.3   0.1
RP |   30.3 |  50.0   0.9   0.0   0.0
Br |   20.2 |  24.6   0.2   0.0   0.0
Un |   20.7 |  25.3   0.2   0.0   0.0
Pr |   26.6 |  28.6   0.3   0.0   0.0
SL |   17.5 |  10.8   0.0   0.0   0.0
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Jan 6, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

RPI got a four-point weekend and that's all that really matters to me. Would you like to talk about how both of the 3-6 and 7-11 sections shifted significantly (with Clarkson also falling back toward the pack a bit)? Nah.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]35.8[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Quinnipiac
Harvard
—————
Dartmouth
Colgate
RPI
Yale
—————
Union
Princeton
Brown
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1088.8 |  [B]96.9[/B]   2.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.03 | 38.60
Ck |  224.9 |   2.4  [B]52.5[/B]  21.3  13.2   7.7   2.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.80 | 31.42
Qu |  159.4 |   0.3  20.5  [B]30.4[/B]  25.2  15.8   7.3   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.59 | 29.29
Ha |  147.4 |   0.2  14.6  25.0  [B]26.0[/B]  21.0  12.4   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.93 | 28.60
Da |  122.2 |   0.1   6.6  13.9  20.9  [B]29.9[/B]  25.6   2.6   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.63 | 27.29
Cg |   80.2 |   0.0   2.9   9.1  14.5  23.9  [B]41.1[/B]   6.8   1.4   0.3   0.0   0.0     x |  5.19 | 25.59
RP |   44.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   6.9  [B]44.0[/B]  31.5  11.5   3.8   0.8   0.0 |  7.59 | 18.68
Ya |   43.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.3  [B]34.2[/B]  34.1  16.9   8.1   2.7   0.2 |  7.99 | 17.45
Un |   24.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   5.4  15.8  [B]33.8[/B]  28.2  15.3   1.1 |  9.34 | 14.25
Pr |   30.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   4.3  10.8  20.3  28.2  [B]28.5[/B]   7.7 |  9.88 | 13.18
Br |   18.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.5   5.8  16.5  28.5  [B]40.6[/B]   7.1 | 10.22 | 12.36
SL |   13.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.1  12.2  [B]83.9[/B] | 11.79 |  7.28

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr | 1088.8 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   4.0   7.6  12.3  17.2  [B]19.9[/B]  18.3  12.3   5.3 | 38.60
Ck |  224.9 |                                                                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.2   6.6   9.2  12.0  13.3  [B]13.9[/B]  12.2  10.1   6.7   4.2   1.9   0.9   0.2   0.1             | 31.42
Qu |  159.4 |                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.0   3.9   6.5  10.0  12.8  [B]15.3[/B]  14.7  13.3   9.3   6.2   2.8   1.3   0.3   0.1                               | 29.29
Ha |  147.4 |                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.4   5.9   8.8  12.1  13.9  [B]15.1[/B]  13.0  10.9   6.8   4.2   1.7   0.7   0.1   0.0                               | 28.60
Da |  122.2 |                                                           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.5   6.9   9.9  12.0  [B]13.8[/B]  13.5  12.3   9.1   6.5   3.6   1.9   0.7   0.3   0.0   0.0                               | 27.29
Cg |   80.2 |                                                         0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   4.3   6.4   9.0  11.1  [B]12.9[/B]  12.8  12.0   9.6   7.3   4.7   2.8   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 25.59
RP |   44.3 |                                                         0.1   0.4   1.6   3.1   6.5   9.2  13.1  14.0  [B]14.8[/B]  12.3  10.0   6.6   4.2   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                       | 18.68
Ya |   43.2 |                                       0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   4.1   7.2   9.7  12.8  13.4  [B]13.7[/B]  11.5   9.3   6.3   4.1   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                             | 17.45
Un |   24.9 |                                       0.6   1.6   4.6   7.5  11.8  14.0  [B]15.4[/B]  13.9  11.6   8.2   5.3   3.0   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                             | 14.25
Pr |   30.3 |         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.7   5.1   7.5  10.7  12.4  [B]13.9[/B]  12.8  11.5   8.4   6.0   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0                                                                                           | 13.18
Br |   18.1 |                           0.6   1.5   4.3   7.0  11.4  13.6  [B]15.3[/B]  14.0  12.0   8.6   5.7   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.36
SL |   13.7 |   1.4   3.5   8.0  11.7  15.2  [B]15.8[/B]  14.5  11.5   8.1   5.0   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     |  7.28
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Qu    Ha    Da    Cg    RP    Ya    Un    Pr    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.2   1.7   6.9 |  89.4
Qu |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.6   3.6   3.9  14.2 |  76.4
Ha |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.2   5.5   6.7  19.2 |  65.8
Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.2   1.0   5.0  10.5  13.3  28.5 |  41.5
Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.6   2.0   9.2  15.5  21.0  24.9 |  26.5
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         8.8  26.9  22.1  22.1   3.6 |   0.2
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   5.2        26.9  19.6  18.1   2.1 |   0.1
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.6   7.3         5.5   3.7   0.3 |   0.0
Pr |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.4   5.6   4.2         2.0   0.1 |    NO
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.8   2.4   1.7   1.3         0.0 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Cr | 1088.8 | 100.0  99.7  89.2  76.6
Ck |  224.9 |  99.8  84.6  47.6  11.1
Qu |  159.4 |  99.3  68.3  25.7   5.1
Ha |  147.4 |  98.8  62.4  20.7   4.1
Da |  122.2 |  96.9  47.2  11.8   2.3
Cg |   80.2 |  91.7  26.5   4.5   0.7
RP |   44.3 |  68.3   5.5   0.3   0.0
Ya |   43.2 |  65.6   4.5   0.2   0.0
Un |   24.9 |  29.4   0.5   0.0   0.0
Pr |   30.3 |  31.1   0.6   0.0   0.0
Br |   18.1 |  15.2   0.1   0.0     0
SL |   13.7 |   4.0   0.0   0.0     x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Jan 12, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Yeah, I know Brown has a game today, but unless they win (a fairly unlikely proposition), it's not going to affect these very much. Cornell still has a pretty hefty lead for first, but they are falling back toward the pack. Similarly, while we still have three teams fighting for the last two byes, their separation from the lower tier in the conference is shrinking (or maybe we just have a couple intermediate tiers now). All that seems guaranteed right now is a bottom two finish for SLU.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]32.0[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Harvard
Quinnipiac
—————
Dartmouth
Colgate
RPI
Yale
—————
Union
Princeton
Brown
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  808.7 |  [B]88.0[/B]  11.2   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.13 | 37.48
Ck |  275.1 |  11.1  [B]67.2[/B]  13.9   5.4   2.1   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.21 | 33.29
Ha |  156.7 |   0.5  10.5  [B]31.5[/B]  27.4  20.1   9.0   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.88 | 28.63
Qu |  150.4 |   0.2   6.0  32.6  [B]32.8[/B]  19.7   7.7   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.93 | 28.48
Da |  127.2 |   0.2   4.6  15.5  22.4  [B]32.9[/B]  19.7   4.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.62 | 27.21
Cg |   74.1 |   0.0   0.6   5.7  11.0  21.3  [B]43.9[/B]  14.1   3.0   0.4   0.1   0.0     x |  5.59 | 24.47
RP |   52.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.2  14.5  [B]48.8[/B]  25.4   5.9   1.3   0.2     x |  7.18 | 20.19
Ya |   47.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   4.4  24.6  [B]40.7[/B]  18.3   8.6   2.4   0.0 |  8.06 | 17.72
Un |   27.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.2  15.9  [B]39.2[/B]  28.7  12.5   0.2 |  9.31 | 14.74
Pr |   32.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.7  10.6  22.7  [B]33.4[/B]  28.4   2.0 |  9.80 | 13.64
Br |   17.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   3.6  13.4  27.3  [B]51.0[/B]   4.0 | 10.37 | 12.10
SL |   12.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   5.6  [B]93.7[/B] | 11.93 |  6.06

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  808.7 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.6   8.3  12.9  17.4  [B]19.1[/B]  17.4  11.1   5.4 | 37.48
Ck |  275.1 |                                                                                                     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.1   3.9   6.7   9.7  13.2  14.5  [B]15.4[/B]  12.6  10.1   5.7   3.2   0.9   0.3       | 33.29
Ha |  156.7 |                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.3   5.9   8.7  12.1  13.9  [B]15.1[/B]  13.1  10.9   6.9   4.3   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.0                         | 28.63
Qu |  150.4 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.0   5.7   9.0  13.3  15.3  [B]17.1[/B]  13.7  11.1   5.5   3.0   0.7   0.2                                     | 28.48
Da |  127.2 |                                                           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.7   7.2  10.1  12.3  [B]14.0[/B]  13.3  12.1   8.8   6.2   3.4   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0                         | 27.21
Cg |   74.1 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.3   4.0   6.9   9.4  12.6  13.6  [B]14.1[/B]  11.9   9.7   6.4   4.1   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                         | 24.47
RP |   52.1 |                                                                     0.2   0.5   2.1   3.7   8.1  10.6  15.2  14.7  [B]15.3[/B]  11.3   8.8   4.9   2.8   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                             | 20.19
Ya |   47.6 |                                       0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.0   3.6   6.4   9.0  12.1  13.1  [B]13.9[/B]  12.1  10.0   7.0   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                       | 17.72
Un |   27.2 |                                             0.9   2.0   6.1   9.0  14.1  15.2  [B]16.1[/B]  13.0  10.2   6.3   3.8   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                         | 14.74
Pr |   32.2 |                     0.0   0.1   0.7   1.5   3.6   5.8   9.8  11.9  [B]15.0[/B]  14.0  13.4   9.8   7.1   3.9   2.1   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                 | 13.64
Br |   17.0 |                           0.7   1.8   5.0   8.1  12.4  14.4  [B]15.5[/B]  13.6  11.1   7.7   4.8   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                   | 12.10
SL |   12.2 |   3.7   7.4  14.2  17.1  [B]18.2[/B]  15.0  11.0   6.8   3.7   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                                                       |  6.06
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Qu    Da    Cg    RP    Ya    Un    Pr    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   2.0 |  97.6
Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.5   5.7  19.3 |  69.8
Qu |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   3.1   4.7  19.0 |  71.6
Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.9   3.6   7.9  12.6  32.1 |  42.8
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   2.7  11.4  17.8  27.9  22.2 |  17.3
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         8.2  27.6  26.8  25.0   4.2 |   0.8
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.2        30.3  21.1  15.6   1.1 |   0.2
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.2   8.7         5.6   2.6   0.1 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.8   6.3   3.8         1.4   0.0 |    NO
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.8   1.0   0.7         0.0 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Cr |  808.7 | 100.0  99.3  85.7  67.7
Ck |  275.1 | 100.0  90.9  58.6  18.7
Ha |  156.7 |  99.2  65.2  20.7   5.3
Qu |  150.4 |  99.2  62.9  18.9   4.7
Da |  127.2 |  97.5  48.4  12.0   2.8
Cg |   74.1 |  89.2  21.5   3.1   0.6
RP |   52.1 |  73.1   7.0   0.6   0.1
Ya |   47.6 |  66.6   3.8   0.3   0.1
Un |   27.2 |  29.0   0.4   0.0   0.0
Pr |   32.2 |  31.2   0.6   0.0   0.0
Br |   17.0 |  12.0   0.1   0.0     x
SL |   12.2 |   3.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Jan 19, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

We've got some fun action going at the bye line, as Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, and Harvard continue to battle over just two spots. The team that loses out however will have an excellent chance to advance regardless because SLU is very bad (really all of the bottom three are very bad). There's a similar tussle between RPI and Yale between who will finish 7th and 8th, which is obviously a little less meaningful, but it could mean the difference between hosting an outright awful team or hosting a simply bad team.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10[SUP]28.2[/SUP] possibilities; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Dartmouth
Quinnipiac
—————
Harvard
Colgate
Yale
RPI
—————
Princeton
Brown
Union
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  767.8 |  [B]90.9[/B]   7.8   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.11 | 37.33
Ck |  256.6 |   7.1  [B]60.0[/B]  20.8   8.2   3.3   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.42 | 32.39
Da |  160.3 |   1.4  17.6  [B]28.9[/B]  24.4  20.1   6.8   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.68 | 29.59
Qu |  159.8 |   0.3   7.8  24.5  [B]31.3[/B]  24.9   9.7   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.08 | 28.53
Ha |  155.6 |   0.2   6.1  20.8  26.7  [B]31.1[/B]  13.3   1.5   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  4.29 | 28.05
Cg |   75.2 |   0.0   0.7   3.8   8.5  17.6  [B]49.1[/B]  14.2   5.7   0.4   0.0   0.0     x |  5.78 | 24.40
Ya |   61.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.2  13.3  [B]48.8[/B]  29.3   5.1   0.6   0.1     x |  7.22 | 20.25
RP |   50.9 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   7.3  30.7  [B]54.4[/B]   6.3   0.4   0.0     x |  7.59 | 19.48
Pr |   33.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.2   7.3  [B]36.1[/B]  25.7  27.4   1.1 |  9.72 | 13.59
Br |   18.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0  32.0  [B]35.4[/B]  29.6   0.7 |  9.94 | 12.90
Un |   22.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8  20.1  37.6  [B]41.1[/B]   0.4 | 10.20 | 12.26
SL |   11.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.9  [B]97.9[/B] | 11.98 |  5.22

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  767.8 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.7   5.2   9.0  13.5  17.6  [B]18.5[/B]  16.5  10.2   4.8 | 37.33
Ck |  256.6 |                                                                                                               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   3.1   5.6   9.9  13.0  [B]17.2[/B]  15.9  15.3   9.2   6.2   1.8   0.8                   | 32.39
Ha |  155.6 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.2   4.1   7.5  10.7  14.7  15.5  [B]16.0[/B]  11.8   9.0   4.3   2.3   0.5   0.2                                     | 28.05
Da |  160.3 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.3   5.6   9.1  11.9  [B]15.0[/B]  14.9  14.3  10.2   7.3   3.4   1.7   0.4   0.1                         | 29.59
Qu |  159.8 |                                                                                   x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.4   2.9   5.7   8.8  13.1  15.1  [B]17.0[/B]  13.8  11.4   5.8   3.3   0.8   0.3                                     | 28.53
Cg |   75.2 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.1   7.1   9.7  12.9  13.7  [B]14.1[/B]  11.8   9.4   6.2   3.9   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                         | 24.40
Ya |   61.9 |                                                               0.0   0.2   0.8   1.8   4.5   7.0  11.5  13.3  [B]15.7[/B]  13.8  12.2   8.4   5.6   2.9   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                       | 20.25
RP |   50.9 |                                                                                 2.6   4.3  12.4  13.7  [B]19.7[/B]  15.6  14.4   8.3   5.3   2.2   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                         | 19.48
Pr |   33.2 |                     0.0   0.2   0.7   1.5   3.7   5.9  10.0  12.1  [B]15.1[/B]  14.1  13.4   9.5   6.9   3.7   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                 | 13.59
Br |   18.7 |                                       1.7   3.6   9.5  12.9  [B]17.5[/B]  16.7  14.9  10.4   6.7   3.5   1.7   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                               | 12.90
Un |   22.1 |                                             7.4  11.2  [B]19.8[/B]  18.8  17.7  11.7   7.3   3.6   1.6   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                                 | 12.26
SL |   11.2 |   7.3  11.8  [B]19.7[/B]  19.5  17.4  11.7   7.0   3.4   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                                                                               |  5.22
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
Blank outcomes are impossible

Playoffs:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Da    Qu    Ha    Cg    Ya    RP    Pr    Br    Un    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   3.3 |  96.2
Da |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.5   2.5   2.9  19.8 |  72.4
Qu |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.5   3.3   4.9  24.6 |  63.8
Ha |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   4.7   4.9   5.8  30.7 |  53.8
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   0.1  18.4  21.7  28.0  18.0 |  13.1
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.6  29.1  30.9  29.5   2.5 |   0.7
RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3        31.4  32.7  26.6   1.0 |   0.1
Pr |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.1   3.1   3.9         1.4   1.1   0.0 |    NO
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   0.7   0.4         0.2   0.0 |    NO
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.2   0.1         0.0 |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
-------------------------------------
Cr |  767.8 | 100.0  99.0  83.9  66.3
Ck |  256.6 | 100.0  86.8  52.3  16.9
Da |  160.3 |  99.4  63.9  22.4   5.8
Qu |  159.8 |  99.1  59.7  19.5   5.3
Ha |  155.6 |  98.8  56.2  17.5   4.8
Cg |   75.2 |  88.9  19.2   2.9   0.6
Ya |   61.9 |  79.9   9.3   0.9   0.2
RP |   50.9 |  74.0   5.1   0.4   0.1
Pr |   33.2 |  28.4   0.5   0.0   0.0
Br |   18.7 |  13.5   0.1   0.0   0.0
Un |   22.1 |  15.9   0.1   0.0   0.0
SL |   11.2 |   2.0   0.0     x     x
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

sshablak · Jan 20, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

I have a question, Colgate has beaten the three teams above them,and they have games in hand on all three. Is this based on just ECAC games or all the regular season games ? They also have a better record by percentage than Harvard and Quinnipiac, and If they win the game in hand on Dartmouth they'll be tied also with Dartmouth.

lugnut92 · Jan 20, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

sshablak said:
I have a question, Colgate has beaten the three teams above them,and they have games in hand on all three. Is this based on just ECAC games or all the regular season games ?

KRACH is based on all NCAA games, i.e., everything that's not an exhibition.

sshablak · Jan 21, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

I understand KRACH, I think. I guess when you say "Simulated final standings" n=1,000,000 I thought it meant the computer ran one million or more possible score combinations for each game currently and going forward to the last regular season game, then placing the teams accordingly. Shows how little I know, isn't this how Vegas get's it's odds, running millions of diff game scenarios ?
Sorry to bother you.

lugnut92 · Jan 21, 2020

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

sshablak said:
I understand KRACH, I think. I guess when you say "Simulated final standings" n=1,000,000 I thought it meant the computer ran one million or more possible score combinations for each game currently and going forward to the last regular season game, then placing the teams accordingly. Shows how little I know, isn't this how Vegas get's it's odds, running millions of diff game scenarios ?
Sorry to bother you.

Let me clarify: The input to my program is the table of results from this season that have already occurred. This provides current point amounts as well as KRACH values for every NCAA team (though we only care about the ECAC teams' values). It then uses those KRACH values to simulate out the remaining games on the ECAC schedule, generating odds as described in the definition of KRACH (i.e., Team A has a percentage chance of beating Team B equal to A's rating divided by the sum of the two teams' ratings), though this is adjusted to allow a flat probability (~13.5%) of ties. In each simulation of the season, the final standings are determined, which allows me to also simulate out the ECAC playoffs. I do this a million times to get as close to a "true" probability as possible, though obviously these odds are only as good as the assumptions that generate them (that KRACH is a true and perfect way of evaluating teams and generating odds).

ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

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Let's Go 'Tute!

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It all starts with the goaltending.

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