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ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 14 February:
SLU and Yale have clinched a home series, weekend is TBD. They are each able to get to 8th place.
...
RPI cannot reach third due to losing the tiebreak with Yale. They are able to get into fourth by themselves.

This is incorrect, Yale can still fall to 9th and has thus not clinched a home series. While Yale would win 2-way tiebreaker with RPI, this analysis ignores the potential for multi-way ties that can put RPI ahead of Yale before re-starting procedures. Cornell is a key element here as Yale would be 0-2 vs Cornell and RPI would be 2-0. If it's a 3-way tie with just those three then all are 2-2-0 head-to-head, RPI comes out on top based on most wins. Cornell then wins h2h vs Yale.

RPI can also get as high as 3rd for the same reasons.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]11.45[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Harvard
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. Colgate
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. Union
  10. RPI
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code:
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Ha    Da    Cg    Cr    Ck    Un    RP    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.4 |  98.0
Ya |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.4   2.1   6.7  10.2 |  78.5
Ha |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.8   2.4   9.1  16.4 |  69.2
Da |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0  10.4   9.6  24.9  30.2 |  24.7
Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.1   0.8  14.0  12.8  27.4  25.2 |  19.5
Cr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1         1.6  28.1  26.4  22.1  11.8 |   7.7
Ck |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4        34.9  39.5   9.0   4.7 |   2.3
Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.9         1.0   0.1   0.0 |     x
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.2   2.8   1.8         0.2   0.0 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  247.7 |  [B]99.9[/B]   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 36.14
SL |  125.4 |   0.1  [B]82.2[/B]  11.3   4.4   1.5   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.26 | 29.33
Ya |  180.1 |     x  10.0  [B]48.1[/B]  20.4  10.6   6.3   3.7   0.7     x     x     x     x |  3.69 | 26.73
Ha |  183.3 |     x   5.9  24.5  [B]38.8[/B]  17.1   8.5   3.9   1.2   0.0     x     x     x |  4.14 | 26.03
Da |  134.5 |     x   1.0   7.3  16.4  [B]29.9[/B]  25.6  12.6   7.1   0.1   0.0     x     x |  5.38 | 24.59
Cg |  155.0 |     x   0.6   6.2  12.7  25.8  [B]27.1[/B]  21.1   6.2   0.4   0.0     x     x |  5.63 | 24.12
Cr |  119.4 |     x   0.0   2.1   5.6  10.9  22.7  [B]37.9[/B]  18.6   1.9   0.3     x     x |  6.53 | 22.73
Ck |   73.3 |     x   0.0   0.5   1.8   4.2   9.0  18.9  [B]56.4[/B]   7.5   1.7     x     x |  7.52 | 21.45
Un |   93.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   4.8  40.0  [B]53.1[/B]   1.3   0.0 |  9.49 | 16.65
RP |   47.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   4.9  [B]49.6[/B]  42.2   2.0     x |  9.38 | 16.59
Br |   41.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   2.8  [B]85.1[/B]  11.6 | 11.08 | 11.60
Pr |   29.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0  11.6  [B]88.4[/B] | 11.88 |  8.04

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  247.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.1   6.2   8.2  21.0  16.5  [B]26.1[/B]   9.9  10.4 | 36.14
SL |  125.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.0   3.0  12.9  12.4  [B]25.6[/B]  14.9  19.2   5.5   4.6     x     x     x     x     x     x | 29.33
Ya |  180.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.8   1.7   9.2  10.4  [B]24.7[/B]  16.3  23.1   7.2   6.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.73
Ha |  183.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.2   6.6   8.7  22.5  16.9  [B]25.9[/B]   8.9   8.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.03
Da |  134.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.1  10.2  11.1  [B]25.6[/B]  16.1  22.0   6.4   5.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.59
Cg |  155.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   1.2   6.2   8.2  21.2  16.6  [B]26.5[/B]   9.7   9.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.12
Cr |  119.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   1.9   9.2  10.3  [B]24.2[/B]  16.2  23.3   7.3   6.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.73
Ck |   73.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.7   6.4  21.4  15.7  [B]24.9[/B]  11.2  10.8   2.4   1.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.45
Un |   93.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.0   5.7  19.3  14.8  [B]24.9[/B]  12.1  12.9   3.1   2.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.65
RP |   47.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.5  12.1  [B]27.5[/B]  16.1  18.1   6.7   4.7   0.9   0.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.59
Br |   41.2 |     x     x     x  11.7  11.3  [B]29.5[/B]  17.3  18.8   6.5   4.0   0.7   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.60
Pr |   29.0 |  20.2  16.4  [B]29.9[/B]  15.3  12.3   3.8   1.8   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.04

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

So I've prepared the exhaustive version of my simulator. If I tried to go through all possibilities right now, the program would be running for the next year... the next Martian year, that is. That's not happening. If I wait for the end of Friday's games, I can go through all of those possibilities in a little under a day. If I do a little optimization and give my computer all day and night to work, I should be able to get the post up just in time for puck drop on a set of six games that would make the simulation irrelevant. Unfortunately I don't know how much optimization can be done when we need to run through a simulation 387,420,489 times (right now it takes about 0.2 milliseconds per simulation).

In any case, I'll post the Monte Carlo simulation immediately after Friday's games conclude and then get the exhaustive simulation going. If it's not up before puck drop, it's not up before puck drop. Such is life.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

NOTE: These are based on games complete when the last ECAC game of the night ended. The exhaustive simulation will start as soon as all of tonight's games are over.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]8.59[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Dartmouth
    —————
  5. Colgate
  6. Harvard
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code:
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Da    Cg    Ha    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
Ya |     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.4   1.9   4.7   8.7 |  84.3
Da |     x     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   1.1   4.6  24.2  27.4 |  42.7
Cg |     x     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.2   2.6  11.8  25.7  27.0 |  32.7
Ha |     x     x     x     x     x           x   0.0   4.2   9.3  20.9  28.8 |  36.7
Cr |     x     x     x     x   0.0     x         1.6  23.9  43.6  19.0   7.3 |   3.6
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1        59.0  25.0   5.5   0.8 |   0.1
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.6   6.2         1.7   0.1   0.0 |     x
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   1.6   0.2         0.0     x |     x
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  241.7 |  [B]99.8[/B]   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 35.98
SL |  136.1 |   0.2  [B]96.9[/B]   2.4   0.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.03 | 30.58
Ya |  181.2 |     x   1.9  [B]64.2[/B]  18.2   8.7   4.8   2.1   0.1     x     x     x     x |  3.57 | 26.89
Da |  142.5 |     x   0.6  14.9  27.2  [B]27.4[/B]  25.7   4.0   0.2     x     x     x     x |  4.75 | 25.39
Cg |  161.9 |     x   0.4  11.6  20.7  27.0  [B]27.3[/B]  12.0   1.1   0.0     x     x     x |  5.10 | 24.91
Ha |  165.6 |     x     x   6.4  [B]30.3[/B]  28.8  21.7  10.2   2.6     x     x     x     x |  5.07 | 24.82
Cr |  114.8 |     x     x   0.4   3.2   7.3  16.9  [B]54.9[/B]  16.4   0.9   0.0     x     x |  6.75 | 22.30
Ck |   70.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   3.5  16.0  [B]70.0[/B]   8.3   1.4     x     x |  7.85 | 20.71
RP |   48.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   7.7  [B]68.4[/B]  21.8   1.3     x |  9.15 | 16.96
Un |   87.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   1.9  21.0  [B]70.8[/B]   6.3     x |  9.81 | 15.80
Br |   44.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   6.1  [B]92.4[/B]   0.1 | 10.91 | 12.53
Pr |   26.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1  [B]99.9[/B] | 12.00 |  7.13

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  241.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.7  14.5  13.5  [B]33.1[/B]  14.2  20.4 | 35.98
SL |  136.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.4   4.4  20.0  14.9  [B]32.0[/B]  11.2  14.2     x     x     x     x     x | 30.58
Ya |  181.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.9  15.9  14.3  [B]33.7[/B]  13.3  18.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.89
Da |  142.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.1   4.9  23.8  16.2  [B]32.2[/B]   9.4  10.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.39
Cg |  161.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.7   2.8  14.9  14.1  [B]34.6[/B]  13.4  18.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.91
Ha |  165.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.6   3.0  16.3  14.9  [B]35.7[/B]  12.5  16.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.82
Cr |  114.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.8   5.6  23.9  15.7  [B]30.6[/B]   9.1  10.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.30
Ck |   70.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.4   9.1  [B]30.2[/B]  15.6  23.9   5.7   5.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.71
RP |   48.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.9  14.7  [B]32.6[/B]  13.1  13.6   2.6   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.96
Un |   87.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   9.9   8.7  [B]28.9[/B]  15.4  24.6   6.3   6.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.80
Br |   44.4 |     x     x     x     x     x  31.1  18.5  [B]29.8[/B]  10.5   8.1   1.4   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.53
Pr |   26.3 |  [B]41.2[/B]  22.4  24.2   7.5   3.9   0.6   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.13

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 20 February:

QU 32 - 38 [1-2]
SLU 27 - 33 [1-4]
--- Bye Lock - 27+ (SLU) ---
YAL 23 - 29 [2-8]
DC 22 - 28 [2-8]
HVD 21 - 27 [3-8]
--- Home Lock - 21+ (HVD) ---
COL 21 - 27 [2-9]
COR 19 - 25 [3-10]
CCT 18 - 24 [3-10]
--- Bye Eligible - 22 (DC) ---
RPI 15 - 21 [6-11]
UC 13 - 19 [7-11]
--- Home Eligible - 18 (CCT) ---
BRN 11 - 17 [9-12]
PU 6 - 12 [11-12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: @COR, SLU, CCT
QU: BRN, @HVD, @DC
COL: RPI, @YAL, @BRN
COR: UC, @BRN, @YAL
YAL: @PU, COL, COR
CCT: HVD, @RPI, @UC
RPI: @COL, CCT, SLU
SLU: DC, @UC, @RPI
BRN: @QU, COR, COL
HVD: @CCT, QU, PU
DC: @SLU, PU, QU
PU: YAL, @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, RPI, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU:
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC,
RPI: COL, COR, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: CCT, HVD, PU,
YAL: BRN, COL, HVD, PU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

HIGHS:
Princeton can only catch Brown if they win out and Brown loses out. They are on the road.
Brown cannot catch the 8th place team; they will be on the road in the first round. They can still get up to 9th.
Union cannot catch the top six; they will play in the first round. They can get into a two-way tie with Cornell, where they would win on Number of Wins.
RPI cannot catch the top four; they will play in the first round. No possible tiebreak outcome can put RPI ahead of Harvard for 5th. They would win the tiebreak over Colgate to take 6th.
Cornell and Clarkson cannot get into 2nd. They are able to get into third alone.
Harvard does not have any combination of tiebreak to be able to get them into second. Even with 4-4-4 with SLU and Colgate, SLU would take second on account of Number of Wins, as they are the only team remaining without a tie. They are able to get into third alone.
Colgate can get into second via their tiebreak with SLU.
Yale and Dartmouth can reach second alone.
Only Quinnipiac and SLU are able to get enough points to finish in first place alone.

LOWS:
Quinnipiac has clinched a bye. The only team able to catch Quinnipiac is SLU, and QU wins the Cleary Cup with any win or tie.
SLU and Colgate cannot get into a tie for 4th alone, as that is the only combination of tiebreak found that SLU would lose, therefore SLU has clinched a first-round bye. They can get to 4th.
Dartmouth and Yale have clinched a home series, weekend is TBD. They are each able to get to 8th place.
Harvard has no possible way of losing a tiebreak to RPI, therefore have clinched a home series, weekend is TBD. They are able to get to 8th.
Colgate is able to finish in a tie for 8th with RPI, and due to losing the tiebreaker, would be in 9th.
There are plenty of ways for Clarkson to finish in 10th.
RPI and Union cannot be caught by Princeton. Brown can still catch them, and Union can still pass RPI, resulting in each being able to finish in 11th.
Princeton and Brown may each still finish in 12th.

Locks and eligibles are self-explanatory.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 20 February:
HIGHS:
Harvard does not have any combination of tiebreak to be able to get them into second. Even with 4-4-4 with SLU and Colgate, SLU would take second on account of Number of Wins, as they are the only team remaining without a tie. They are able to get into third alone.

Harvard can get the #2 seed if there's a 4-way tie for second at 27 points with St. Lawrence (must lose out), Harvard (must win out), Colgate (must win out) and Dartmouth (must get exactly 5 points). Give Yale a loss or tie vs Princeton or Cornell to keep them below 27. H2H points within the 4-way tie are 7 for Harvard and Colgate, 6 for SLU, 4 for Dartmouth. Harvard and Colgate separate from top, Harvard then gets #2 seed with 4 h2h points vs Colgate. See and try it all at http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2015/cgi-bin/ecac.cgi?frame=none

All other ranges are correct.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Exhaustive simulation is in progress. It's about 60% complete now, I don't think it'll be done before puck drop. Hopefully it's at least done before all of the games are over.

EDIT: At 323,689,410 simulations run (83.55% of total) over 66,996 seconds, I can say now that the simulation definitely won't be done before puck drop, and very possibly won't be done before the games are over. I'm going to post it because it would be a disservice to my poor computer to run a program all day and not share the results. That's just the way it goes.

EDIT #2: Yeah, this won't be done until about 10 EST. I'll post it anyway.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Exhaustive simulation is in progress. It's about 60% complete now, I don't think it'll be done before puck drop. Hopefully it's at least done before all of the games are over.

EDIT: At 323,689,410 simulations run (83.55% of total) over 66,996 seconds, I can say now that the simulation definitely won't be done before puck drop, and very possibly won't be done before the games are over. I'm going to post it because it would be a disservice to my poor computer to run a program all day and not share the results. That's just the way it goes.

EDIT #2: Yeah, this won't be done until about 10 EST. I'll post it anyway.

The next run will go a lot faster. :)
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

387420000 100.0 % 80343.4236 s

EXHAUSTIVE SEARCH COMPLETE

Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  243.0 |  [B]99.8[/B]   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 36.00
SL |  135.6 |   0.2  [B]96.7[/B]   2.6   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.03 | 30.58
Ya |  180.3 |     x   1.8  [B]61.3[/B]  20.4   9.3   5.0   2.2   0.1     x     x     x     x |  3.62 | 26.89
Da |  141.3 |     x   0.9  14.8  26.8  [B]27.2[/B]  25.8   4.1   0.4     x     x     x     x |  4.76 | 25.39
Cg |  162.2 |     x   0.4  14.5  18.8  26.4  [B]27.0[/B]  11.8   1.1   0.0     x     x     x |  5.05 | 24.92
Ha |  163.8 |     x     x   6.4  [B]30.2[/B]  28.7  21.3  10.5   2.9     x     x     x     x |  5.08 | 24.81
Cr |  113.6 |     x     x   0.4   3.1   7.4  16.8  [B]55.0[/B]  16.1   1.1   0.0     x     x |  6.75 | 22.30
Ck |   69.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.1   4.0  15.6  [B]69.2[/B]   8.6   1.4     x     x |  7.84 | 20.70
RP |   47.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   8.0  [B]68.0[/B]  21.9   1.3     x |  9.15 | 16.96
Un |   87.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   2.2  20.8  [B]70.1[/B]   6.8     x |  9.81 | 15.81
Br |   44.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   6.6  [B]91.9[/B]   0.1 | 10.91 | 12.52
Pr |   25.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1  [B]99.9[/B] | 12.00 |  7.13
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/Users/Lugnut/Desktop/Programs./Season Simulator/seasonsim_2015exhaust.py", line 965, in <module>
just -= 1
NameError: name 'just' is not defined

****. No playoffs or points table. I guess it's okay, it's all long irrelevant.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

And the more important sim:

Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 531,441 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Harvard
    —————
  5. Colgate
  6. Dartmouth
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code:
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Ha    Cg    Da    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
Ya |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.2   1.5   4.1   6.6 |  87.6
Ha |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.6   5.4  12.4  25.8 |  55.8
Cg |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x   1.5   9.1  16.0  36.5 |  36.9
Da |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   3.1  21.7  42.7  21.1 |  11.4
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  10.7  50.1  21.0  10.0 |   8.2
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        78.3  12.1   3.9     x |     x
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.6           x     x     x |     x
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |     x
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  232.3 | [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 35.37
SL |  146.0 |     x [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.69
Ya |  183.4 |     x     x  [B]75.5[/B]  12.1   6.6   4.4   1.3     x     x     x     x     x |  3.44 | 27.22
Ha |  170.7 |     x     x   7.4  [B]48.4[/B]  25.8  13.4   5.0     x     x     x     x     x |  4.60 | 25.51
Cg |  164.7 |     x     x  16.2  20.7  [B]36.5[/B]  17.8   8.8     x     x     x     x     x |  4.82 | 25.44
Da |  130.6 |     x     x   0.8  10.6  21.1  [B]49.5[/B]  17.5   0.5     x     x     x     x |  5.74 | 24.34
Cr |  121.6 |     x     x   0.1   8.1  10.0  14.8  [B]64.5[/B]   2.5     x     x     x     x |  6.43 | 23.21
Ck |   66.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   2.9  [B]91.4[/B]   5.6     x     x     x |  8.03 | 20.06
RP |   46.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.6  [B]80.1[/B]  13.3   1.0     x |  9.10 | 16.39
Un |   83.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  11.0  [B]74.6[/B]  14.4     x | 10.03 | 14.86
Br |   46.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.3  12.2  [B]84.6[/B]     x | 10.82 | 13.13
Pr |   25.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x [B]100.0[/B] | 12.00 |  6.77

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  232.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  11.4   9.1  [B]37.7[/B]  14.2  27.6 | 35.37
SL |  146.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   7.0  34.0  16.2  [B]36.2[/B]     x     x     x     x | 31.69
Ya |  183.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  14.1  10.1  [B]38.9[/B]  13.1  23.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.22
Ha |  170.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.6   8.2  [B]43.5[/B]  15.1  27.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.51
Cg |  164.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.7   8.7  [B]40.4[/B]  14.6  27.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.44
Da |  130.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.8   9.3  [B]46.3[/B]  13.9  22.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.34
Cr |  121.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.4  10.2  [B]42.7[/B]  13.1  21.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.21
Ck |   66.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  17.0  11.2  [B]40.0[/B]  12.1  19.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.06
RP |   46.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  33.7  15.7  [B]35.7[/B]   7.6   7.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.39
Un |   83.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.2  12.6  [B]40.4[/B]  10.7  15.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.86
Br |   46.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]42.3[/B]  17.5  29.9   5.8   4.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.13
Pr |   25.4 |  [B]54.6[/B]  19.9  20.5   3.4   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.77

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 21 February:

QU 33 - 37 [1]
SLU 29 - 33 [2]
--- Bye Lock - 27+ (COL, YAL) ---
YAL 25 - 29 [3-7]
HVD 23 - 27 [3-7]
COL 23 - 27 [3-7]
DC 22 - 26 [3-8]
COR 21 - 25 [3-8]
--- Bye Eligible - 23+ (HVD, COL) ---
--- Home Lock - 19+ (CCT) ---
CCT 18 - 22 [6-9]
RPI 15 - 19 [8-11]
--- Home Eligible - 18 (CCT) ---
UC 13 - 17 [9-11]
BRN 12 - 16 [9-11]
PU 6 - 10 [12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: SLU, CCT
QU: @HVD, @DC
COL: @YAL, @BRN
COR: @BRN, @YAL
YAL: COL, COR
CCT: @RPI, @UC
RPI: CCT, SLU
SLU: @UC, @RPI
BRN: COR, COL
HVD: QU, PU
DC: PU, QU
PU: @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, RPI, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU:
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC,
RPI: COR, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: CCT, HVD, PU,
YAL: BRN, COL, HVD, PU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

Quinnipiac, SLU, and Princeton are locked into their present positions.

HIGHS:
Brown and Union cannot catch the 8th place team; they will be on the road in the first round. They can still get up to 9th.
RPI can get up to 8th alone; a win by CCT in either game would put them on the road. A tie vs. Union would give it to RPI on the basis of Number of Wins.
Clarkson can get into a two-way tie with Dartmouth; the present top four would give Clarkson 6th.
Cornell can get into a three-way tie with Yale and Colgate for third, and would wint he tiebreak as they hold the H2H over both teams.
The other teams can reach third alone.

LOWS:
Yale can get into a two-way with Cornell, and with Cornell holding H2H, Yale can get to 7th.
Harvard and Colgate may each get to 7th alone.
As previously explained by the CCT-Dartmouth tiebreak, Dartmouth may use the same method to get to 8th.
Cornell may finish in 8th alone.
The previous explanation for RPI getting to 8th is how Clarkson gets to 9th.
The other three teams may still finish in 11th alone.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Here's a minor update taking account for Harvard's utter failure at the Beanpot.

Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 531,441 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Harvard
    —————
  5. Colgate
  6. Dartmouth
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code:
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Ha    Cg    Da    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
Ya |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.2   1.4   4.1   6.8 |  87.6
Ha |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.7   5.7  12.7  26.2 |  54.6
Cg |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x   1.5   9.1  15.8  35.9 |  37.6
Da |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   3.1  21.5  42.5  21.1 |  11.8
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  10.6  50.0  21.0  10.0 |   8.5
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        78.1  12.2   3.9     x |     x
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.8           x     x     x |     x
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |     x
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  229.7 | [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 35.40
SL |  143.8 |     x [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.68
Ya |  180.0 |     x     x  [B]75.5[/B]  12.1   6.8   4.4   1.3     x     x     x     x     x |  3.44 | 27.22
Ha |  158.8 |     x     x   7.1  [B]47.5[/B]  26.2  13.8   5.3     x     x     x     x     x |  4.62 | 25.47
Cg |  162.7 |     x     x  16.5  21.1  [B]35.9[/B]  17.7   8.8     x     x     x     x     x |  4.81 | 25.44
Da |  129.4 |     x     x   0.8  11.0  21.1  [B]49.1[/B]  17.4   0.6     x     x     x     x |  5.73 | 24.34
Cr |  120.0 |     x     x   0.2   8.3  10.0  14.9  [B]64.3[/B]   2.4     x     x     x     x |  6.42 | 23.21
Ck |   66.1 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   2.9  [B]91.2[/B]   5.8     x     x     x |  8.03 | 20.06
RP |   45.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.8  [B]79.9[/B]  13.3   1.0     x |  9.10 | 16.40
Un |   82.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  11.0  [B]74.6[/B]  14.4     x | 10.03 | 14.86
Br |   45.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.3  12.1  [B]84.6[/B]     x | 10.81 | 13.13
Pr |   25.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x [B]100.0[/B] | 12.00 |  6.79

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  229.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  11.0   9.0  [B]37.4[/B]  14.3  28.3 | 35.40
SL |  143.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.6   7.1  [B]34.0[/B]  16.2  36.1     x     x     x     x | 31.68
Ya |  180.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  14.2  10.2  [B]38.9[/B]  13.1  23.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.22
Ha |  158.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.0   8.5  [B]44.2[/B]  14.8  26.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.47
Cg |  162.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.7   8.7  [B]40.3[/B]  14.6  27.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.44
Da |  129.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.8   9.3  [B]46.3[/B]  13.9  22.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.34
Cr |  120.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.4  10.2  [B]42.6[/B]  13.1  21.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.21
Ck |   66.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  17.0  11.2  [B]40.0[/B]  12.0  19.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.06
RP |   45.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  33.6  15.7  [B]35.7[/B]   7.6   7.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.40
Un |   82.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.1  12.6  [B]40.4[/B]  10.7  15.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.86
Br |   45.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]42.3[/B]  17.5  29.9   5.8   4.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.13
Pr |   25.1 |  [B]54.2[/B]  19.8  20.9   3.5   1.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.79

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 27 February:

QU 35 - 37 [1]
SLU 29 - 31 [2]
YAL 26 - 28 [3-4]
--- Bye Lock - 26+ (COL, DC) ---
COL 24 - 26 [4-7]
DC 24 - 26 [3-6]
HVD 23 - 25 [4-7]
--- Bye Eligible - 24+ (DC, COL) ---
COR 22 - 24 [5-7]
CCT 19 - 21 [8]
--- Home Lock - 19 (CCT) ---
--- Home Eligible - 19 (CCT) ---
RPI 16 - 18 [9-10]
UC 15 - 17 [9-10]
BRN 13 - 15 [11]
PU 6 - 8 [12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: CCT
QU: @DC
COL: @BRN
COR: @YAL
YAL: COR
CCT: @UC
RPI: SLU
SLU: @RPI
BRN: COL
HVD: PU
DC: QU
PU: @HVD

Tie-breaks (SWEEP, 3pts, or 2PTS with game in hand):
BRN: pu, RPI,
CCT: BRN, rpi, yal
COL: BRN, cct, dc, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: brn, CCT, col, hvd, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, dc, PU, RPI,
PU:
QU: brn, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC,
RPI: cor, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, pu, RPI, YAL
UC: CCT, hvd, PU,
YAL: BRN, col, HVD, PU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

In a three-way with Yale, Colgate, and Dartmouth, Yale 5 Colgate 4 Dartmouth 3, so Yale has clinched a first round bye.
Colgate cannot catch Yale, but can finish 4th as just demonstrated. Dartmouth can catch Yale on ECAC wins.

Cornell, Colgate, Dartmouth 3-way: Cornell 3, Colgate 4, Dartmouth 5.
Cornell, Colgate, Dartmouth, Harvard 4-way: Cornell 6, Colgate 4, Dartmouth 6, Harvard 8.
Therefore, Cornell cannot get a first round bye. They can get 5th on a tie with Colgate if Dartmouth gets 4th alone.

Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard 3-way: Cornell 3 Dartmouth 5 Harvard 4.
Dartmouth cannot get to 7th.

Union wins the tiebreak over Brown on ECAC wins, so Brown is going to finish 11th.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Mid-weekend update:

Quinnipiac will finish 1st.
St. Lawrence will finish 2nd.
Clarkson will finish 8th.
Brown will finish 11th.
Princeton will finish 12th.

Yale has clinched a bye, by virtue of their tiebreakers over both Harvard and Colgate.
Cornell cannot get the bye, due to Dartmouth holding a H2H tiebreaker over them. They are locked into a 1st-round home series, and will finish 5th, 6th, or 7th.
The two Capital District teams will finish 9th and 10th. We won't know what order until after all is said and done tomorrow night.

Colgate, Harvard, and Dartmouth are all in the hunt for the final bye position. Colgate will clinch it with a win. Dartmouth can finish 4th, 5th, or 6th, while Colgate and Harvard can finish anywhere between 4th and 7th.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 729 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. Harvard
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code:
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Cg    Da    Ha    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
Ya |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 100.0
Cg |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   1.0   2.1  11.2  15.6 |  70.1
Da |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x     x     x  51.9  36.8 |  11.2
Ha |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   2.4   5.0  27.7  46.9 |  18.1
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x  28.9  60.7   9.2   0.8 |   0.5
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x        67.8  32.2     x     x |     x
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x     x |     x
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |     x
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  243.5 | [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 36.25
SL |  132.3 |     x [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 30.42
Ya |  179.7 |     x     x  [B]96.6[/B]   3.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.03 | 27.19
Cg |  162.7 |     x     x     x  [B]70.1[/B]  15.6  11.2   3.1     x     x     x     x     x |  4.47 | 25.47
Da |  132.7 |     x     x   3.4   7.8  36.8  [B]51.9[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.37 | 24.75
Ha |  149.1 |     x     x     x  18.1  [B]46.9[/B]  27.7   7.3     x     x     x     x     x |  5.24 | 24.62
Cr |  115.6 |     x     x     x   0.5   0.8   9.2  [B]89.6[/B]     x     x     x     x     x |  6.88 | 22.81
Ck |   64.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x [B]100.0[/B]     x     x     x     x |  8.00 | 19.86
RP |   46.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]67.8[/B]  32.2     x     x |  9.32 | 16.58
Un |   90.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  32.2  [B]67.8[/B]     x     x |  9.68 | 16.14
Br |   48.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x [B]100.0[/B]     x | 11.00 | 13.53
Pr |   24.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x [B]100.0[/B] | 12.00 |  6.38

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  243.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  30.5  13.5  [B]56.0[/B] | 36.25
SL |  132.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  22.5  13.4  [B]64.0[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x | 30.42
Ya |  179.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  33.9  13.4  [B]52.7[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.19
Cg |  162.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  19.7  13.5  [B]66.8[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.47
Da |  132.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]56.0[/B]  13.5  30.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.75
Ha |  149.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.1  13.4  [B]74.5[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.62
Cr |  115.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]52.7[/B]  13.4  33.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.81
Ck |   64.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]50.4[/B]  13.4  36.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.86
RP |   46.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]64.0[/B]  13.4  22.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.58
Un |   90.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  36.2  13.4  [B]50.4[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.14
Br |   48.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]66.8[/B]  13.5  19.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.53
Pr |   24.2 |  [B]74.5[/B]  13.4  12.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.38

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Update after Brown/Colgate:

QU 35 - 37 [1]
SLU 29 - 31 [2]
YAL 26 - 28 [3]
COL 26 [4]
--- Bye Lock - 26+ (COL, YAL) ---
--- Bye Eligible - 26+ (COL, YAL) ---
DC 24 - 26 [5-6]
HVD 23 - 25 [5-7]
COR 22 - 24 [6-7]
CCT 19 - 21 [8]
--- Home Lock - 19 (CCT) ---
--- Home Eligible - 19 (CCT) ---
RPI 16 - 18 [9-10]
UC 15 - 17 [9-10]
BRN 13 [11]
PU 6 - 8 [12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: CCT
QU: @DC
COR: @YAL
YAL: COR
CCT: @UC
RPI: SLU
SLU: @RPI
HVD: PU
DC: QU
PU: @HVD

Tie-breaks (SWEEP, 3pts, or 2PTS with game in hand):
BRN: pu, RPI,
CCT: BRN, rpi, yal
COL: BRN, cct, dc, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: brn, CCT, col, hvd, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, dc, PU, RPI,
PU:
QU: brn, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC,
RPI: cor, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, pu, RPI, YAL
UC: CCT, hvd, PU,
YAL: BRN, col, HVD, PU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

In a three-way with Yale, Colgate, and Dartmouth, Yale 5 Colgate 4 Dartmouth 3, so Yale and Colgate have clinched a first round bye.
Colgate cannot catch Yale, but can finish 4th as just demonstrated.

Cornell cannot get 5th, as they would lose a tiebreak with Dartmouth.

Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard 3-way: Cornell 3 Dartmouth 5 Harvard 4.
Dartmouth cannot get to 7th.

Union can get to 9th if they win and RPI loses.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

And this is why I didn't like Colgate and Brown playing at 4 PM, before all the other games. It takes away a wild race to the finish that we've all come to love here in the ECAC. Then again, I'm happy my team got the bye. #SorryNotSorry
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Final Standings:

QU 35 [1]
SLU 29 [2]
YAL 28 [3]
COL 26 [4]
--- Bye Lock - 26+ (COL, YAL) ---
--- Bye Eligible - 26+ (COL, YAL) ---
DC 26 [5]
HVD 25 [6]
COR 22 [7]
CCT 19 [8]
--- Home Lock - 19 (CCT) ---
--- Home Eligible - 19 (CCT) ---
RPI 18 [9]
UC 17 [10]
BRN 13 [11]
PU 6 [12]
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 1 possibility):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. Harvard
  7. Cornell
  8. Clarkson
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code:
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Cg    Da    Ha    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   100
Ya |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   100
SL |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   100
Cg |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   100
Da |     x     x     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   100 |     x
Ha |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   100     x |     x
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x   100     x     x |     x
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x         100     x     x     x |     x
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x     x |     x
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |     x
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  219.3 |   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   1.0 |  35.0
SL |  119.5 |     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   2.0 |  29.0
Ya |  190.4 |     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   3.0 |  28.0
Cg |  165.3 |     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   4.0 |  26.0
Da |  145.8 |     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   5.0 |  26.0
Ha |  151.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x |   6.0 |  25.0
Cr |  108.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x |   7.0 |  22.0
Ck |   60.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x |   8.0 |  19.0
RP |   51.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x |   9.0 |  18.0
Un |   94.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x |  10.0 |  17.0
Br |   46.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x |  11.0 |  13.0
Pr |   23.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100 |  12.0 |   6.0

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  219.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100 |  35.0
SL |  119.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x |  29.0
Ya |  190.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  28.0
Cg |  165.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  26.0
Da |  145.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  26.0
Ha |  151.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  25.0
Cr |  108.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  22.0
Ck |   60.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  19.0
RP |   51.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  18.0
Un |   94.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  17.0
Br |   46.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  13.0
Pr |   23.4 |   100     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   6.0

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

And now for playoff predictions:

Summary:
Code:
      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
Qu |  219.3 |   100  [B]85.9[/B]  [B]54.6[/B]  [B]31.8[/B]
Ya |  190.4 |   100  [B]62.1[/B]  [B]36.8[/B]  19.3
Cg |  165.3 |   100  [B]54.8[/B]  27.2  13.8
SL |  119.5 |   100  [B]64.4[/B]  27.9  11.0
Da |  145.8 |  [B]94.8[/B]  43.0  20.1   9.5
Ha |  151.3 |  [B]86.2[/B]  35.9  16.3   8.4
Cr |  108.8 |  [B]55.0[/B]  23.9   8.2   3.3
Un |   94.8 |  45.0  11.4   4.4   1.7
Ck |   60.3 |  [B]55.9[/B]  10.5   2.6   0.7
RP |   51.4 |  44.1   6.8   1.5   0.4
Br |   46.3 |  13.8   1.2   0.3   0.1
Pr |   23.4 |   5.2   0.1   0.0   0.0

Quarterfinals Matchups:
Code:
 QF|    Da    Ha    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr 
Qu |     x     x     x  25.1  19.9  [B]36.7[/B]  13.1   5.2
SL |     x     x  [B]45.0[/B]  26.0  20.4   7.9   0.7     x
Ya |     x  [B]81.7[/B]   9.7   4.7   3.7   0.3     x     x
Cg |  [B]94.8[/B]   4.5   0.4   0.2   0.1     x     x     x

Semifinals Matchups:
Code:
 SF|    Qu    SL    Ya    Cg    Da    Ha    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr 
Qu |     x     x     x  18.8  14.3  18.9  20.8   5.9   3.9   3.1   0.1     x
SL |     x     x  34.3  11.3   9.0   0.3   0.0   1.6   1.0   6.1   0.7   0.1
Ya |     x     x     x  13.6  10.7   0.6   0.0   0.8   0.5   1.1   0.3   0.0
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x   7.8   1.2   0.9   0.6   0.6   0.0   0.0
Da |     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   0.9   0.7   0.4   0.4   0.0     x
Ha |     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.0     x   0.0
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x

Finals Matchups:
Code:
  F|    Qu    SL    Ya    Cg    Da    Ha    Cr    Ck    RP    Un    Br    Pr 
Qu |     x  13.2  19.8   9.9   7.4   4.0   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x
SL |     x     x   1.9   4.7   3.4   4.4   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x
Ya |     x     x     x   5.7   4.1   0.3   2.4   0.7   0.4   1.4   0.1   0.0
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   2.0   0.6   0.3   1.1   0.1   0.0
Da |     x     x     x     x     x   2.2   1.6   0.4   0.3   0.8   0.1     x
Ha |     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.3   0.4   0.2   0.8     x   0.0
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.1     x   0.0   0.0
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.0   0.0
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.0   0.0
Un |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x
 
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