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ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Sorry for the delay. The 2014 portion of the ECAC schedule closed out this weekend and every team finally has a point (unfortunately).

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]41.51[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Harvard
  2. Quinnipiac
  3. Yale
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. Clarkson
  6. Cornell
  7. Dartmouth
  8. SLU
    —————
  9. Union
  10. RPI
  11. Princeton
  12. Brown
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  699.7 |  [B]83.8[/B]  13.0   2.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.21 | 34.50
Qu |  221.9 |  12.0  [B]52.5[/B]  19.0   8.8   4.2   2.1   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  2.53 | 29.91
Ya |  200.4 |   2.2  15.3  [B]25.2[/B]  19.7  14.4  10.0   6.6   4.0   2.0   0.6   0.0   0.0 |  4.22 | 26.35
Cg |  168.0 |   0.8   5.5  13.8  [B]16.2[/B]  15.9  14.6  12.5   9.9   6.9   3.8   0.1   0.0 |  5.53 | 24.31
Ck |  111.3 |   0.6   5.0  11.3  14.3  [B]15.6[/B]  15.3  14.0  11.4   8.1   4.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.78 | 23.84
Cr |  169.7 |   0.5   3.8  10.8  13.5  14.5  [B]14.6[/B]  13.9  12.4   9.8   6.0   0.2   0.0 |  6.02 | 23.38
Da |  168.8 |   0.1   3.2  10.2  13.7  15.2  [B]15.5[/B]  14.6  12.6   9.4   5.4   0.1   0.0 |  6.03 | 23.30
SL |   97.3 |   0.1   0.9   3.4   6.0   8.8  11.8  15.0  18.2  [B]19.2[/B]  15.8   0.6   0.0 |  7.41 | 21.05
Un |  130.8 |   0.0   0.7   3.3   5.8   8.4  11.2  14.4  17.7  [B]20.8[/B]  16.9   0.7   0.0 |  7.50 | 20.90
RP |   64.0 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   2.7   4.8   8.1  13.4  23.0  [B]42.0[/B]   3.8   0.3 |  8.85 | 18.16
Br |   35.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.6  [B]54.0[/B]  41.8 | 11.37 |  9.62
Pr |   28.5 |     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6  40.4  [B]57.8[/B] | 11.56 |  8.67

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  699.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.7   8.6  11.6  14.3  [B]15.0[/B]  14.2  11.1   7.5   3.4   1.3 | 34.50
Qu |  221.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.8   7.9  10.3  11.8  [B]12.7[/B]  12.1  10.8   8.1   5.9   3.4   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0 | 29.91
Ya |  200.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.8   7.1   9.2  11.3  12.3  [B]12.4[/B]  11.2   9.4   6.7   4.5   2.5   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.35
Cg |  168.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.3   3.7   5.3   7.3   9.0  10.5  [B]11.2  11.2[/B]  10.1   8.7   6.6   4.8   3.1   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 24.31
Ck |  111.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.7   4.3   6.4   8.3  10.3  11.3  [B]11.8[/B]  11.0   9.6   7.5   5.6   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 23.84
Cr |  169.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.2   3.5   5.2   7.2   8.9  10.5  11.2  [B]11.3[/B]  10.1   8.8   6.8   4.9   3.2   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 23.38
Da |  168.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.4   5.3   7.1   9.3  10.7  [B]11.9[/B]  11.6  10.7   8.7   6.8   4.6   2.9   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.30
SL |   97.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   4.0   5.8   8.1   9.9  11.4  [B]11.6[/B]  11.3   9.8   8.0   5.9   4.1   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 21.05
Un |  130.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.1   6.2   8.2  10.3  11.3  [B]11.9[/B]  11.1   9.9   7.7   5.8   3.7   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.90
RP |   64.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.9   3.4   5.8   8.0  10.5  11.7  [B]12.5[/B]  11.7  10.3   8.0   6.0   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.16
Br |   35.2 |   0.2   0.6   2.1   4.0   7.1   9.8  12.6  [B]13.4  13.4[/B]  11.5   9.2   6.6   4.3   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.62
Pr |   28.5 |   0.5   1.4   3.8   6.6  10.2  12.7  [B]14.3[/B]  13.7  12.0   9.2   6.5   4.1   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.67

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Once again a week goes by with a few ECAC teams in action, but no actual league games. This will probably be the last update until after the new year once there have been a significant number of games played by ECAC teams (including a few conference matchups).

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]41.51[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Harvard
  2. Quinnipiac
  3. Yale
  4. Clarkson
    —————
  5. Cornell
  6. Dartmouth
  7. Colgate
  8. Union
    —————
  9. SLU
  10. RPI
  11. Princeton
  12. Brown
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  705.8 |  [B]84.9[/B]  12.3   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.19 | 34.72
Qu |  215.8 |  11.4  [B]54.1[/B]  18.8   8.5   4.1   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  2.51 | 30.02
Ya |  192.4 |   2.0  15.2  [B]25.7[/B]  20.1  14.4   9.9   6.4   3.8   1.9   0.6   0.0   0.0 |  4.19 | 26.39
Ck |  109.2 |   0.6   5.4  12.2  15.1  [B]16.1[/B]  15.4  13.5  10.7   7.3   3.7   0.1   0.0 |  5.65 | 24.03
Cr |  172.8 |   0.5   4.6  13.1  15.2  [B]15.4[/B]  14.5  13.1  10.9   8.0   4.5   0.1   0.0 |  5.71 | 23.85
Da |  166.9 |   0.1   3.6  11.6  15.1  [B]16.0[/B]  15.6  14.1  11.4   8.1   4.3   0.1   0.0 |  5.83 | 23.62
Cg |  139.2 |   0.4   3.3   9.9  13.3  14.9  [B]15.4[/B]  14.7  12.7   9.6   5.6   0.2   0.0 |  6.06 | 23.38
Un |  127.2 |   0.0   0.8   3.6   6.3   9.1  12.0  15.0  18.0  [B]19.5[/B]  14.9   0.6   0.0 |  7.37 | 21.10
SL |   83.3 |   0.0   0.6   2.5   4.6   7.2  10.3  14.1  18.5  [B]21.6[/B]  19.6   0.9   0.0 |  7.73 | 20.43
RP |   59.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   2.7   4.8   8.1  13.6  23.2  [B]41.4[/B]   3.9   0.3 |  8.85 | 18.12
Br |   33.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.8  [B]53.7[/B]  41.9 | 11.37 |  9.65
Pr |   27.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.7  40.4  [B]57.7[/B] | 11.56 |  8.70

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  705.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.0   5.1   8.0  11.0  14.0  [B]15.3[/B]  14.9  12.0   8.3   3.9   1.6 | 34.72
Qu |  215.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.5   5.5   7.6  10.1  11.7  [B]12.7[/B]  12.2  11.0   8.4   6.1   3.6   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0 | 30.02
Ya |  192.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.7   7.0   9.1  11.3  12.3  [B]12.6[/B]  11.2   9.4   6.8   4.6   2.6   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.39
Ck |  109.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.5   3.9   6.0   7.9  10.0  11.1  [B]11.8[/B]  11.1  10.0   7.9   6.0   4.0   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 24.03
Cr |  172.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.2   8.1   9.8  10.9  [B]11.5[/B]  10.8   9.6   7.7   5.8   3.9   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 23.85
Da |  166.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.6   6.5   8.7  10.3  [B]11.7  11.7[/B]  11.3   9.4   7.6   5.2   3.4   1.8   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.62
Cg |  139.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.3   7.1   9.1  10.4  [B]11.3[/B]  11.1  10.3   8.6   6.8   4.8   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x | 23.38
Un |  127.2 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.3   3.8   5.8   7.7   9.9  11.1  [B]12.0[/B]  11.4  10.2   8.1   6.2   4.1   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 21.10
SL |   83.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.2   5.2   7.2   9.5  11.0  [B]11.9[/B]  11.5  10.6   8.7   6.7   4.6   3.0   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 20.43
RP |   59.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.5   5.8   8.1  10.6  11.8  [B]12.5[/B]  11.7  10.2   8.0   5.8   3.8   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.12
Br |   33.5 |   0.2   0.6   2.0   3.9   7.0   9.7  12.5  [B]13.4  13.4[/B]  11.6   9.3   6.6   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.65
Pr |   27.2 |   0.5   1.4   3.7   6.5  10.1  12.6  [B]14.3[/B]  13.7  12.0   9.4   6.6   4.3   2.5   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.70

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

With all of the holiday games played, including one or two ECAC matchups, here are the first simulations of the new year. Even though we're still less than halfway through the season, I'm now including the likelihood of each playoff matchup occurring.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]40.08[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Harvard
  2. Quinnipiac
  3. Yale
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. Clarkson
  7. Union
  8. Cornell
    —————
  9. SLU
  10. RPI
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Ha    Qu    Ya    Cg    Da    Ck    Un    Cr    SL    RP    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  99.9
Qu |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.3   1.6 |  96.8
Ya |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.6   1.2   1.7   8.0   8.9 |  78.1
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0         0.6   1.2   1.7   2.1   4.8   5.7  16.0  16.7 |  46.2
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.5         1.6   3.3   3.2   6.5   8.3  18.1  18.5 |  30.2
Ck |     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.3         3.8   4.5   9.5  11.0  17.0  16.8 |  19.7
Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   1.7   3.0         5.9  11.1  12.0  14.1  13.6 |  12.0
Cr |     x   0.0   0.1   0.9   1.7   3.3   5.0         9.9  12.5  13.1  12.7 |  11.9
SL |     x   0.0   0.2   1.0   2.1   3.0   6.0   7.1        11.7   7.2   6.7 |   3.4
RP |     x   0.0   0.1   1.0   2.1   3.2   5.1   5.7   8.6         5.0   4.5 |   1.8
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |     x
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  846.7 |  [B]85.3[/B]  12.6   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.17 | 35.53
Qu |  240.1 |  11.7  [B]58.6[/B]  19.8   6.7   2.2   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.33 | 31.11
Ya |  252.4 |   2.3  18.6  [B]36.2[/B]  21.0  11.2   5.9   2.9   1.3   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  3.60 | 27.76
Cg |  182.9 |   0.6   5.1  17.2  [B]23.3[/B]  19.0  13.9   9.6   6.2   3.5   1.5   0.0   0.0 |  4.98 | 25.31
Da |  161.6 |   0.0   2.1  10.3  17.8  [B]19.7[/B]  17.2  13.4   9.8   6.4   3.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.70 | 23.80
Ck |   86.9 |   0.1   1.6   6.3  11.7  16.1  [B]17.8[/B]  16.8  14.0  10.0   5.5   0.1   0.0 |  6.32 | 22.84
Un |  130.3 |   0.0   0.5   3.7   7.8  12.1  15.5  [B]17.4[/B]  17.4  15.2  10.1   0.3   0.0 |  6.99 | 21.61
Cr |  116.5 |   0.0   0.6   3.7   7.6  11.3  14.4  16.4  [B]17.1[/B]  16.1  12.5   0.4   0.0 |  7.11 | 21.33
SL |   65.8 |   0.0   0.1   0.9   2.4   5.0   8.6  13.0  18.3  23.9  [B]26.6[/B]   1.0   0.0 |  8.20 | 19.29
RP |   58.6 |     x   0.0   0.4   1.4   3.3   6.1  10.1  15.7  24.0  [B]36.5[/B]   2.4   0.1 |  8.65 | 18.27
Br |   27.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   2.7  [B]54.0[/B]  42.9 | 11.39 |  9.02
Pr |   25.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2  41.8  [B]56.9[/B] | 11.55 |  8.13

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  846.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.9   5.2   8.4  12.2  15.3  [B]16.9[/B]  15.4  12.0   6.3   2.8 | 35.53
Qu |  240.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.0   4.9   7.6  10.0  12.6  13.3  [B]13.5[/B]  11.3   9.1   5.7   3.6   1.6   0.7   0.2   0.1 | 31.11
Ya |  252.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.8   5.8   8.4  10.6  12.6  [B]13.0[/B]  12.7  10.4   8.0   5.1   3.1   1.4   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x | 27.76
Cg |  182.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.3   7.1   9.2  10.6  [B]11.6[/B]  11.4  10.5   8.7   6.8   4.7   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.31
Da |  161.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.2   6.1   8.3  10.1  11.7  [B]11.9[/B]  11.6   9.8   8.0   5.5   3.7   2.0   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.80
Ck |   86.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.5   4.3   6.3   8.6  10.4  [B]11.8  11.8[/B]  11.3   9.5   7.6   5.4   3.6   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 22.84
Un |  130.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.8   4.6   6.6   8.9  10.6  [B]12.0[/B]  11.9  11.2   9.2   7.4   5.0   3.3   1.8   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 21.61
Cr |  116.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.6   5.3   7.4   9.2  10.7  [B]11.4[/B]  11.3  10.2   8.5   6.6   4.7   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 21.33
SL |   65.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.3   7.8   9.8  11.6  [B]12.0[/B]  11.9  10.3   8.5   6.3   4.3   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.29
RP |   58.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.0   5.4   7.6  10.3  11.8  [B]12.8[/B]  12.0  10.7   8.3   6.2   4.0   2.5   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.27
Br |   27.6 |   0.4   1.0   3.0   5.4   9.0  11.7  13.9  [B]14.0[/B]  12.9  10.3   7.6   5.0   3.0   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.02
Pr |   25.8 |   0.8   1.8   5.0   8.0  12.3  14.2  [B]15.3[/B]  13.5  11.1   7.7   5.0   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.13

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]36.26[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Harvard
  2. Quinnipiac
  3. Colgate
  4. Yale
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. Union
  7. Clarkson
  8. Cornell
    —————
  9. SLU
  10. RPI
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Ha    Qu    Cg    Ya    Da    Un    Ck    Cr    SL    RP    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2 |  99.6
Qu |     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4 |  99.5
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   0.4   0.7   1.1   6.0  10.5 |  79.6
Ya |     x     x   0.0         0.3   0.5   0.7   0.6   0.7   1.8   7.3  12.2 |  75.3
Da |   0.0     x   0.1   0.1         4.1   4.4   4.1   4.4   8.6  18.8  22.4 |  18.9
Un |     x     x   0.1   0.1   2.5         6.9   6.4   6.7  10.9  16.8  14.2 |   8.5
Ck |     x     x   0.1   0.1   2.8   5.7         6.2   7.8  12.6  14.5  11.6 |   5.0
Cr |   0.0     x   0.1   0.1   2.7   5.5   7.9         5.8  12.4  14.4  11.8 |   7.2
SL |     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   2.7   5.6   6.5   8.0        12.5  14.7  11.9 |   5.2
RP |     x     x   0.1   0.1   2.8   5.0   6.4   6.3   6.4         7.0   4.6 |   1.3
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.0 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  515.5 |  [B]60.5[/B]  29.3   7.8   2.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.52 | 34.17
Qu |  265.7 |  33.2  [B]49.0[/B]  13.5   3.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.90 | 32.92
Cg |  220.2 |   3.6  10.7  [B]36.2[/B]  29.1  11.7   5.0   2.2   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0     x |  3.67 | 28.11
Ya |  227.5 |   2.7  10.0  31.2  [B]31.4[/B]  13.5   6.2   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.85 | 27.49
Da |  135.0 |   0.0   0.5   5.4  13.0  [B]23.3[/B]  18.3  14.3  11.2   8.3   5.5   0.2   0.0 |  6.17 | 22.93
Un |  123.3 |   0.0   0.1   2.1   6.3  13.6  [B]17.4[/B]  17.3  16.4  15.2  11.2   0.4   0.0 |  7.09 | 21.25
Ck |   71.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.9   4.0  10.9  15.1  17.4  [B]18.1[/B]  17.8  15.1   0.6   0.0 |  7.49 | 20.72
Cr |  104.5 |   0.0   0.2   1.8   5.2  11.2  14.9  17.0  [B]17.7[/B]  17.0  14.4   0.7   0.0 |  7.37 | 20.71
SL |   70.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.9   4.2  11.2  15.3  17.5  [B]18.2[/B]  17.4  14.5   0.6   0.0 |  7.44 | 20.65
RP |   56.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   3.9   7.5  11.3  15.8  22.4  [B]34.3[/B]   3.3   0.0 |  8.58 | 18.36
Br |   35.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.9   4.6  [B]76.7[/B]  17.6 | 11.10 | 10.37
Pr |   19.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1  17.5  [B]82.4[/B] | 11.82 |  6.33

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  515.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.4   4.3   6.9   9.8  12.5  [B]14.7[/B]  14.6  13.3   9.5   6.2   2.6   1.0 | 34.17
Qu |  265.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.9   4.9   8.2  10.8  14.1  14.3  [B]14.6[/B]  11.1   8.7   4.5   2.6   0.7   0.3 | 32.92
Cg |  220.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.3   7.6   9.7  11.6  [B]12.3[/B]  12.2  10.6   8.8   6.1   4.1   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x | 28.11
Ya |  227.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.6   4.4   6.6   9.1  11.0  [B]12.7  12.7[/B]  12.0   9.7   7.3   4.5   2.7   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x | 27.49
Da |  135.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.0   6.0   8.0  10.1  11.3  [B]12.1[/B]  11.4  10.2   7.9   5.9   3.7   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 22.93
Un |  123.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.3   7.3  10.1  11.5  [B]12.9[/B]  12.2  11.2   8.6   6.5   3.9   2.4   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.25
Ck |   71.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.2   4.2   6.4   9.2  11.1  [B]12.8[/B]  12.6  11.8   9.6   7.3   4.9   3.0   1.7   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.72
Cr |  104.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.4   6.5   9.0  10.8  [B]12.2[/B]  12.1  11.4   9.4   7.4   5.1   3.3   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.71
SL |   70.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.3   4.4   6.5   9.4  11.2  [B]13.0[/B]  12.5  11.7   9.3   7.1   4.7   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 20.65
RP |   56.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.2   2.3   5.0   7.2  10.7  12.2  [B]13.9[/B]  12.8  11.5   8.6   6.3   3.8   2.3   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.36
Br |   35.7 |   0.1   0.3   1.2   2.5   4.9   7.4  10.6  12.5  [B]13.6[/B]  12.9  11.1   8.5   6.1   3.9   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.37
Pr |   19.9 |   3.2   6.2  12.8  15.4  [B]17.8[/B]  15.4  12.3   7.9   4.8   2.3   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.33

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]31.49[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Harvard
  3. Yale
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. SLU
  6. Clarkson
  7. RPI
  8. Cornell
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Dartmouth
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ha    Ya    Cg    SL    Ck    RP    Cr    Un    Da    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.5 |  97.8
Ha |     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.1   2.3 |  96.5
Ya |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.1   1.2   6.8  10.6 |  79.5
Cg |     x     x   0.0         0.1   0.4   0.3   0.3   1.9   1.8   9.1  14.0 |  71.5
SL |   0.0     x   0.0   0.0         0.9   0.9   2.0   5.8   6.9  20.8  26.7 |  33.1
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6         3.1   3.9  15.4  16.0  20.0  16.2 |   8.6
RP |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.7         5.1  18.4  19.2  17.9  13.4 |   5.7
Cr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   4.0   3.6        17.8  17.9  16.3  11.1 |   6.2
Un |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.0   5.3   4.4   5.0         8.4   3.8   2.4 |   0.5
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.9   4.4   6.0   8.6         3.4   2.0 |   0.5
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0 |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  202.7 |  [B]43.6[/B]  32.7  15.5   6.0   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.91 | 32.26
Ha |  353.6 |  [B]39.7[/B]  32.3  16.6   7.9   2.8   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.04 | 31.87
Ya |  230.5 |  10.6  18.7  [B]29.0[/B]  21.2  12.4   5.1   2.0   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  3.34 | 28.80
Cg |  197.2 |   5.1  12.1  24.2  [B]30.1[/B]  16.1   7.1   3.3   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  3.85 | 27.75
SL |   96.3 |   0.9   3.3   9.8  19.1  [B]29.1[/B]  18.6  10.6   5.6   2.4   0.6   0.0     x |  5.17 | 25.33
Ck |   80.9 |   0.1   0.4   2.0   6.1  14.5  [B]21.7[/B]  21.3  17.7  11.3   4.9   0.0     x |  6.76 | 22.53
RP |   67.8 |   0.0   0.1   1.1   4.5  11.3  19.8  23.1  [B]23.2[/B]  12.5   4.3   0.1     x |  7.01 | 21.71
Cr |  107.6 |   0.1   0.4   1.5   4.2   9.0  18.4  [B]22.9[/B]  21.1  14.4   8.0   0.1   0.0 |  7.17 | 21.58
Un |   94.3 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.7   4.3   8.6  15.8  30.6  [B]37.4[/B]   1.1   0.0 |  8.84 | 18.39
Da |   78.8 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   3.9   8.1  14.5  27.8  [B]41.8[/B]   1.9   0.0 |  8.95 | 17.98
Br |   31.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   2.7  [B]72.7[/B]  24.2 | 11.21 |  9.36
Pr |   19.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2  24.0  [B]75.8[/B] | 11.76 |  6.43

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  202.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.3   4.5   6.8  10.4  12.4  [B]14.7[/B]  13.6  12.8   8.8   6.5   3.0   1.7   0.4   0.2 | 32.26
Ha |  353.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   5.1   7.8  11.0  13.3  [B]15.1[/B]  13.9  12.3   8.0   5.3   1.9   0.8     x     x | 31.87
Ya |  230.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.0   3.5   5.8   8.1  11.0  12.7  [B]13.8[/B]  12.6  11.1   7.8   5.4   2.7   1.4   0.4   0.1     x     x     x | 28.80
Cg |  197.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.8   5.8   8.7  10.8  13.0  [B]13.1[/B]  12.8  10.2   8.0   4.8   3.0   1.3   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x | 27.75
SL |   96.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.8   4.5   7.4   9.6  12.6  13.0  [B]13.6[/B]  11.2   9.4   6.1   4.1   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 25.33
Ck |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.2   4.4   6.6   9.8  11.5  [B]13.6[/B]  12.9  12.3   9.2   7.1   4.2   2.5   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.53
RP |   67.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.4   1.7   3.0   6.6   8.7  13.1  13.5  [B]15.1[/B]  12.2  10.6   6.7   4.5   2.1   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.71
Cr |  107.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.2   6.8   9.1  11.8  12.7  [B]13.3[/B]  11.5   9.7   6.8   4.7   2.6   1.5   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.58
Un |   94.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.5   4.2   7.4   9.6  13.0  13.2  [B]14.0[/B]  11.4   9.6   6.1   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.39
Da |   78.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   1.9   3.7   5.7   8.5  10.5  [B]12.6  12.6[/B]  12.4  10.1   8.1   5.4   3.6   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.98
Br |   31.3 |   0.2   0.7   2.3   4.2   7.8  10.5  13.6  [B]14.0[/B]  13.7  11.3   8.7   5.8   3.6   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.36
Pr |   19.5 |   3.0   5.8  12.3  15.1  [B]17.8[/B]  15.6  12.6   8.3   5.1   2.6   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.43

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]27.67[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Harvard
  3. SLU
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. Clarkson
  6. Yale
  7. Cornell
  8. RPI
    —————
  9. Dartmouth
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ha    SL    Cg    Ck    Ya    Cr    RP    Da    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.1 |  97.9
Ha |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   1.8   2.2 |  95.7
SL |     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   0.5   1.3   1.9  10.1  11.4 |  73.3
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.4   0.2   0.8   2.0   3.2   5.6  14.6  15.5 |  55.6
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2         0.8   2.1   3.0   6.2   8.9  20.4  21.0 |  31.6
Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4         1.9   4.6   6.9  10.8  20.4  20.2 |  28.0
Cr |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.3   1.3         8.1  11.6  17.4  14.2  13.0 |  10.1
RP |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.1   1.2   6.6        16.6  17.4   9.2   8.3 |   4.9
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.1   1.3   7.2  10.5        14.2   5.9   5.2 |   2.1
Un |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   1.4   1.5   3.5   5.3   5.9         2.5   2.2 |   0.8
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  194.0 |  [B]57.9[/B]  28.0   8.6   3.4   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.64 | 32.42
Ha |  298.9 |  32.8  [B]39.6[/B]  16.2   7.1   2.9   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.13 | 30.82
SL |  112.9 |   5.7  16.4  [B]28.8[/B]  22.4  14.0   7.6   3.3   1.4   0.5   0.1     x     x |  3.69 | 27.76
Cg |  178.0 |   1.9   8.4  22.3  [B]23.0[/B]  17.5  12.6   8.0   4.1   1.8   0.5     x     x |  4.50 | 26.45
Ck |   93.4 |   0.8   3.6  10.6  16.6  [B]21.9[/B]  19.5  13.2   8.0   4.2   1.6     x     x |  5.43 | 25.02
Ya |  155.5 |   0.9   3.3   8.6  15.2  19.4  [B]21.2[/B]  15.7   9.1   4.7   1.8   0.0     x |  5.62 | 24.72
Cr |  113.9 |   0.1   0.6   2.7   6.7  11.2  15.9  [B]20.8[/B]  19.3  15.1   7.6   0.0     x |  7.00 | 22.42
RP |   60.3 |   0.0   0.1   1.5   3.3   6.5  10.9  18.5  [B]25.1[/B]  22.7  11.3   0.0     x |  7.64 | 21.18
Da |   94.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.6   3.7   7.3  14.0  20.9  [B]27.8[/B]  23.9   0.1   0.0 |  8.27 | 20.30
Un |  101.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.2   6.2  11.9  23.2  [B]52.9[/B]   0.2   0.0 |  9.09 | 18.62
Br |   25.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3  [B]59.6[/B]  40.2 | 11.40 |  7.61
Pr |   20.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1  40.1  [B]59.8[/B] | 11.60 |  6.68

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  194.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   4.1   6.4   9.8  11.9  [B]14.5[/B]  13.6  13.1   9.4   7.0   3.5   2.0   0.5   0.2 | 32.42
Ha |  298.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.6   4.6   8.1  11.1  15.2  15.3  [B]16.1[/B]  11.3   8.7   3.3   1.8     x     x     x     x | 30.82
SL |  112.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.6   3.0   6.0   8.3  12.4  13.3  [B]15.4[/B]  12.6  11.4   6.9   4.8   2.0   1.0   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x | 27.76
Cg |  178.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.0   4.1   6.3   9.8  11.9  [B]14.6[/B]  13.7  13.3   9.5   7.1   3.5   2.0   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.45
Ck |   93.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.9   4.7   8.6  10.6  14.4  13.9  [B]14.5[/B]  10.7   8.6   4.7   2.9   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.02
Ya |  155.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.8   3.3   6.1   8.4  12.1  13.3  [B]14.9[/B]  12.6  11.1   7.0   4.8   2.1   1.1   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.72
Cr |  113.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.4   6.6  10.2  12.0  [B]14.6[/B]  13.4  12.7   9.0   6.7   3.6   2.1   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.42
RP |   60.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.7   2.5   4.2   8.5  10.5  [B]14.6[/B]  14.0  14.4  10.9   8.7   5.1   3.2   1.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.18
Da |   94.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.3   4.7   6.9  10.6  12.2  [B]14.4[/B]  13.1  12.2   8.7   6.4   3.4   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.30
Un |  101.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7   6.8   8.9  12.4  12.9  [B]14.1[/B]  11.8  10.2   6.7   4.7   2.3   1.3   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.62
Br |   25.7 |   1.0   2.3   6.5   9.6  14.8  15.6  [B]16.1[/B]  12.7   9.6   5.8   3.3   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.61
Pr |   20.1 |   2.4   4.8  10.9  13.9  [B]17.5[/B]  15.8  13.6   9.3   6.0   3.2   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.68

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 31 January:

--- Bye Lock - 31+ (Field) ---
--- Home Lock - 27+ (Field) ---
QU 23 - 39 [1-10]
SLU 20 - 36 [1-10]
HVD 18 - 34 [1-11]
CCT 16 - 32 [1-12]
YAL 16 - 32 [1-12]
COL 15 - 31 [1-12]
COR 15 - 31 [1-12]
RPI 14 - 30 [1-12]
DC 14 - 30 [1-12]
UC 11 - 27 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 20+ (Field) ---
BRN 3 - 19 [5-12]
PU 3 - 19 [5-12]
--- Home Eligible - 14+ (RPI, DC) ---



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: @CCT, @SLU, YAL, BRN, @COL, @COR, SLU, CCT
QU: @COR, @COL, SLU, CCT, YAL, BRN, @HVD, @DC
COL: PU, QU, @HVD, @DC, UC, RPI, @YAL, @BRN
COR: QU, PU, @DC, @HVD, RPI, UC, @BRN, @YAL
YAL: HVD, DC, @UC, @RPI, @QU, @PU, COL, COR
CCT: UC, RPI, @PU, @QU, DC, HVD, @RPI, @UC
RPI: @SLU, @CCT, BRN, YAL, @COR, @COL, CCT, SLU
SLU: RPI, UC, @QU, @PU, HVD, DC, @UC, @RPI
BRN: DC, HVD, @RPI, @UC, @PU, @QU, COR, COL
HVD: @YAL, @BRN, COL, COR, @SLU, @CCT, QU, PU
DC: @BRN, @YAL, COR, COL, @CCT, @SLU, PU, QU
PU: @COL, @COR, CCT, SLU, BRN, YAL, @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, DC, PU, QU, RPI, UC, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COL, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: BRN, CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU: BRN, COR,
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC, YAL
RPI: CCT, COL, COR, PU, SLU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: BRN, CCT, HVD, PU, SLU, YAL
YAL: BRN, COL, DC, HVD, PU, QU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

HIGHS:
There are a couple ways for Brown and Princeton to get into a two-way tie for 5th with RPI and Cornell respectively.
There are plenty of ways for Union to still win the Cleary Cup without tiebreakers. From there, it's a safe assumption that all remaining teams can get to first in several ways.

LOWS:
There are several ways to get Quinnipiac and SLU to 10th.
To try to get Harvard into 12th, it would involve a three-way tie between Harvard, Brown, and Princeton. H2H would be 4-4-4, and the number of wins would be even. Top four would have to involve Cornell (to eliminate Princeton), but too many tiebreaks exist with the other teams that Harvard cannot get to 12th by tiebreak. This would, however, get them to 11th.
There are several ways for all other teams to finish in 12th.

LOCKS:
Bye: There can be a four-way tie between the aforementioned teams at 31 points with SLU ahead of all of them, meaning 5th place at 31 is the highest possible.
Home: The way to do this involves a NINE WAY TIE for the Cleary Cup at 27 points (all teams except Union, Brown, and Princeton)! I'm not even going to begin to calculate which team ends up on the road, because it's very likely to go to goal differential. For the heck of it, here's the way I found (0 = Loss, 1 = Tie, 2 = Win):
Code: 
     QU      @COR    @COL     SLU     CCT     YAL     BRN    @HVD     @DC       0   0   1   0   0   2   1   0
     SLU      RPI      UC     @QU     @PU     HVD      DC     @UC    @RPI       0   2   1   2   0   0   2   0
     HVD     @YAL    @BRN     COL     COR    @SLU    @CCT      QU      PU       0   2   1   1   2   0   1   2
     CCT       UC     RPI     @PU     @QU      DC     HVD    @RPI     @UC       2   1   2   2   0   2   0   2
     YAL      HVD      DC     @UC    @RPI     @QU     @PU     COL     COR       2   1   2   0   2   2   1   1
     COL       PU      QU    @HVD     @DC      UC     RPI    @YAL    @BRN       2   2   1   1   2   1   1   2
     COR       QU      PU     @DC    @HVD     RPI      UC    @BRN    @YAL       2   2   1   1   1   2   2   1
     RPI     @SLU    @CCT     BRN     YAL    @COR    @COL     CCT     SLU       2   1   2   2   1   1   2   2
      DC     @BRN    @YAL     COR     COL    @CCT    @SLU      PU      QU       2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
       UC    @CCT    @SLU     YAL     BRN    @COL    @COR     SLU     CCT       0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0
       BRN     DC     HVD    @RPI     @UC     @PU     @QU     COR     COL       0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0
        PU   @COL    @COR     CCT     SLU     BRN     YAL     @DC    @HVD       0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

ELIGIBLES:
Bye: There are a couple of ways to get a two-way tie for 4th at 20 points.
Home: If both RPI and Dartmouth lose out, along with other favorable outcomes, there are several ways for RPI and Dartmouth to tie for 8th at 14 points; RPI would get 8th on account of the number of wins.
 
Last edited:
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

FlagDUDE08 said:
After 31 January:

--- Bye Lock - 31+ (Field) ---
--- Home Lock - 27+ (Field) ---
QU 23 - 39 [1-10]
SLU 20 - 36 [1-10]
HVD 18 - 34 [1-10]
CCT 16 - 32 [1-10]
YAL 16 - 32 [1-10]
COL 15 - 31 [1-10]
COR 15 - 31 [1-10]
RPI 14 - 30 [1-10]
DC 14 - 30 [1-10]
UC 11 - 27 [1-10]
--- Bye Eligible - 20+ (Field) ---
BRN 3 - 19 [11-12]
PU 3 - 19 [11-12]
--- Home Eligible - 14+ (RPI, DC) ---
Click to expand...

Corrected your Prognosticator ;)
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

The last weekend of fewer than 12 ECAC games has come and gone and every team has played 14 games. No more fiddling with games in hand and points percentages, just points and wins and tiebreaks. I'll remind everyone that tiebreaking in this simulator is often less than correct, so if something doesn't make sense or contradicts what FD08 says, he's probably right.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]22.90[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Harvard
  3. SLU
  4. Yale
    —————
  5. Colgate
  6. Cornell
  7. Clarkson
  8. Dartmouth
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    Ha    SL    Ya    Cg    Cr    Ck    Da    RP    Un    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4 |  99.3
Ha |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.0   4.7   5.0 |  88.2
SL |     x   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.8   4.3   4.4 |  89.3
Ya |     x   0.0   0.0         0.6   0.6   1.2   2.3   7.6   9.7  16.9  17.2 |  37.7
Cg |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5         0.9   2.3   2.5   8.5  11.8  18.7  18.6 |  28.7
Cr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.1         2.4   2.3   8.9  12.4  18.2  18.2 |  26.5
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.3   1.0   1.3         4.5  10.8  14.1  17.0  16.8 |  16.9
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   1.3   2.0   2.7        16.8  18.2  12.9  12.5 |   9.9
RP |     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   2.2   2.9   4.0   7.7        10.7   4.9   4.9 |   2.5
Un |     x   0.0   0.1   1.4   1.3   1.4   3.3   3.2   5.3         2.2   2.2 |   0.9
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  199.4 |  [B]74.4[/B]  17.3   5.9   1.7   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.37 | 32.72
Ha |  253.6 |  13.2  [B]33.4[/B]  28.3  13.3   6.5   3.3   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x |  2.85 | 28.93
SL |  119.5 |  10.9  [B]36.8[/B]  29.1  12.5   5.8   2.8   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.0     x     x |  2.83 | 28.77
Ya |  160.6 |   0.8   4.9  12.0  [B]20.0[/B]  18.1  16.0  13.5   8.7   4.3   1.7     x     x |  5.33 | 25.16
Cg |  157.1 |   0.3   3.3   9.1  16.0  [B]19.0[/B]  18.2  15.6  10.9   5.6   2.0     x     x |  5.69 | 24.65
Cr |  134.9 |   0.2   2.4   7.7  16.2  [B]18.6[/B]  17.8  15.7  12.1   6.7   2.5     x     x |  5.86 | 24.21
Ck |   86.3 |   0.2   1.4   4.6  10.7  15.5  18.3  [B]18.5[/B]  14.5  10.1   6.1     x     x |  6.45 | 23.76
Da |  115.6 |   0.0   0.4   2.4   7.1  10.9  14.4  18.2  [B]23.7[/B]  15.8   7.1   0.0     x |  7.07 | 22.68
RP |   58.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.8   3.6   6.2  10.3  18.5  [B]32.9[/B]  26.1   0.0     x |  8.41 | 20.27
Un |  107.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.5   2.9   5.4  10.6  24.2  [B]54.4[/B]   0.0     x |  9.14 | 19.19
Br |   24.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0  [B]53.4[/B]  46.6 | 11.47 |  6.97
Pr |   23.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0  46.6  [B]53.4[/B] | 11.53 |  6.68

   |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  199.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.4   2.6   5.7   8.1  12.9  13.7  [B]16.7[/B]  13.1  12.1   6.5   4.5   1.3   0.6 | 32.72
Ha |  253.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.2   4.1   7.9  10.8  15.6  15.5  [B]17.0[/B]  11.4   9.2   3.3   1.8     x     x     x     x     x | 28.93
SL |  119.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.0   3.0   4.9   9.4  11.4  [B]15.8[/B]  14.5  15.1  10.0   8.0   3.6   2.1   0.5   0.2     x     x     x | 28.77
Ya |  160.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   2.2   3.8   7.8  10.1  14.9  14.4  [B]16.0[/B]  11.3   9.6   4.7   2.9   0.8   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.16
Cg |  157.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.3   2.5   5.8   8.4  13.4  14.3  [B]17.2[/B]  13.2  11.8   6.0   4.0   1.1   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.65
Cr |  134.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.9   3.6   7.5  10.0  15.1  14.8  [B]16.4[/B]  11.7   9.7   4.6   2.9   0.7   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.21
Ck |   86.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.3   2.4   6.0   8.2  13.5  13.8  [B]16.5[/B]  12.8  11.5   6.4   4.4   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.76
Da |  115.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   3.1   5.1   9.8  11.7  [B]16.2[/B]  14.4  14.9   9.7   7.5   3.3   1.9   0.4   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.68
RP |   58.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   1.2   4.4   6.5  12.3  13.3  [B]16.8[/B]  13.9  12.8   7.9   5.6   2.6   1.4   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.27
Un |  107.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.8   4.7   6.8  11.7  12.7  [B]16.3[/B]  13.5  13.0   8.0   5.9   2.5   1.4   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.19
Br |   24.8 |   4.2   6.9  15.4  16.6  [B]19.2[/B]  14.6  11.2   6.3   3.5   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.97
Pr |   23.0 |   5.4   8.5  17.2  17.7  [B]18.8[/B]  13.5   9.6   5.1   2.6   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.68

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

vicb said:
Not in this scenario the way either Brown or Princeton are playing.
Click to expand...

Until it is mathmatically impossible, it is still possible. You are speaking of improbability.

Can someone translate this into suck-langauge so someone from Clarkson can understand? :p:D
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

FlagDUDE08 said:
Until it is mathmatically impossible, it is still possible. You are speaking of improbability.

Can someone translate this into suck-langauge so someone from Clarkson can understand? :p:D
Click to expand...

OOOOOONE MINUTE, AND BROWN AND PRINCETON CAN STILL REACH FIFTH! Also, CLARKSON STILL SUCKS!
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Mind you, a LOT of things have to go right, including a tie with the aforementioned teams, so the chances are about as good as me ever becoming President of the United States when I become of age or later, but it's still a possibility. I'm not holding my breath on it happening, mind you.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 6 February:

--- Bye Lock - 30+ (HVD, YAL, COL) ---
--- Home Lock - 26+ (Field) ---
QU 25 - 39 [1-9]
SLU 22 - 36 [1-10]
HVD 18 - 32 [1-10]
YAL 18 - 32 [1-10]
COL 17 - 31 [1-10]
CCT 16 - 30 [1-11]
DC 16 - 30 [1-11]
COR 15 - 29 [1-12]
RPI 14 - 28 [1-12]
UC 13 - 27 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 21+ (Field) ---
PU 3 - 17 [7-12]
BRN 3 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 16 (COR, RPI) ---



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: @SLU, YAL, BRN, @COL, @COR, SLU, CCT
QU: @COL, SLU, CCT, YAL, BRN, @HVD, @DC
COL: QU, @HVD, @DC, UC, RPI, @YAL, @BRN
COR: PU, @DC, @HVD, RPI, UC, @BRN, @YAL
YAL: DC, @UC, @RPI, @QU, @PU, COL, COR
CCT: RPI, @PU, @QU, DC, HVD, @RPI, @UC
RPI: @CCT, BRN, YAL, @COR, @COL, CCT, SLU
SLU: UC, @QU, @PU, HVD, DC, @UC, @RPI
BRN: HVD, @RPI, @UC, @PU, @QU, COR, COL
HVD: @BRN, COL, COR, @SLU, @CCT, QU, PU
DC: @YAL, COR, COL, @CCT, @SLU, PU, QU
PU: @COR, CCT, SLU, BRN, YAL, @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, DC, PU, QU, RPI, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COL, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: BRN, CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU: BRN, COR,
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC, YAL
RPI: CCT, COL, COR, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: BRN, CCT, HVD, PU, SLU, YAL
YAL: BRN, COL, DC, HVD, PU, QU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

HIGHS:
Brown cannot get into a tie for 7th with RPI; they are able to finish in 8th alone.
There are a couple ways for Princeton to get into a tie for 7th with Cornell.
There are plenty of ways for Union to still win the Cleary Cup without tiebreakers. From there, it's a safe assumption that all remaining teams can get to first in several ways.

LOWS:
Quinnipiac can get into 9th when there is an eight-way tie for the Cleary Cup! (outted teams are Cornell, Brown, and Princeton).
There are several ways to get SLU to 10th.
Harvard and Yale both have enough points to eclipse Brown and Princeton, while Colgate holds the tiebreak vs. both teams. Several ways to get them to 10th.
Because Brown and Princeton play each other, and Clarkson and Dartmouth own both of the tiebreaks (exclusively in terms of Brown), neither can finish in 12th. They may, however, get to 11th alone.
If Brown were to beat Princeton, it is then possible for Cornell to finish in a tie for 11th with Princeton, where they would end up in 12th.
There are several ways for all other teams to finish in 12th exclusively.

LOCKS:
Bye: There can be a two-way tie between any combination of the aforementioned teams at 30 points, meaning 5th place at 30 is the highest possible.
Home: The way to do this involves a five-way tie for 5th at 26 points.


ELIGIBLES:
Bye: There are a couple of ways to get a four-way tie for 3rd at 21 points.
Home: RPI and Cornell still play each other and one of them must get to 16 points. With Cornell still playing Union once, it is possible to get home ice exclusively at 16, but no less.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 7 February:

--- Bye Lock - 30+ (HVD, YAL, DAR) ---
QU 27 - 39 [1-7]
--- Home Lock - 26+ (Field) ---
SLU 24 - 36 [1-10]
CCT 18 - 30 [1-10]
DC 18 - 30 [1-10]
HVD 18 - 30 [1-10]
YAL 18 - 30 [1-10]
COR 17 - 29 [1-11]
COL 17 - 29 [1-11]
RPI 14 - 26 [2-12]
UC 13 - 25 [2-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 20+ (Field) ---
BRN 5 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 17+ (COR, COL, UC, BRN) ---
PU 3 - 15 [9-12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: YAL, BRN, @COL, @COR, SLU, CCT
QU: SLU, CCT, YAL, BRN, @HVD, @DC
COL: @HVD, @DC, UC, RPI, @YAL, @BRN
COR: @DC, @HVD, RPI, UC, @BRN, @YAL
YAL: @UC, @RPI, @QU, @PU, COL, COR
CCT: @PU, @QU, DC, HVD, @RPI, @UC
RPI: BRN, YAL, @COR, @COL, CCT, SLU
SLU: @QU, @PU, HVD, DC, @UC, @RPI
BRN: @RPI, @UC, @PU, @QU, COR, COL
HVD: COL, COR, @SLU, @CCT, QU, PU
DC: COR, COL, @CCT, @SLU, PU, QU
PU: CCT, SLU, BRN, YAL, @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, DC, PU, QU, RPI, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COL, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU: BRN,
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC, YAL
RPI: COL, COR, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: BRN, CCT, HVD, PU, YAL
YAL: BRN, COL, HVD, PU, QU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

HIGHS:
Princeton cannot catch the 8th place team; they will be on the road in the first round. As RPI and Union do not play each other again, they can get up to 9th potentially.
Brown can get into a tie for 8th with Colgate, and they would win the tiebreak on ECAC wins.
Neither RPI nor Union can catch Quinnipiac. It is possible for each to pass SLU and be in second alone.
The remaining teams are able to get to first place alone.

LOWS:
Quinnipiac has clinched a home game; the weekend is TBD. Because of the combination of games, it is possible to get them into a tie with Harvard for 6th, which would put QU in 7th.
Because of the combination of games, SLU cannot finish in 10th. They are able to finish in 9th.
There are plenty of ways for the teams on 18 to finish in 10th.
It is possible, based on tiebreaks for ECAC wins (COL) and record vs. Top 4 (COR), that Cornell and Colgate could finish in a tie for 10th with Brown, and given the right combination of teams at the top (one possibility is QU, SLU, DC, and RPI), could finish in 11th.
There are several ways for all other teams to finish in 12th exclusively.

LOCKS:
Bye: There can be a three-way tie between the aforementioned teams at 30 points, meaning 5th place at 30 is the highest possible.
Home: There are a few ways to get a two-way tie for 8th at 25 points.


ELIGIBLES:
Bye: There are a couple of ways to get a five-way tie for 4th at 20 points.
Home: Colgate, Cornell, Union, and Brown may get into a four-way tie for 8th at 17.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]17.18[/SUP] possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. SLU
  3. Yale
  4. Harvard
    —————
  5. Dartmouth
  6. Colgate
  7. Clarkson
  8. Cornell
    —————
  9. Union
  10. RPI
  11. Brown
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Playoff Matchups:
Code: 
   |    Qu    SL    Ya    Ha    Da    Cg    Ck    Cr    Un    RP    Br    Pr |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
SL |     x           x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3 |  99.4
Ya |     x     x         0.2   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.5   8.3   9.0  14.4  16.6 |  46.5
Ha |     x     x   0.1         0.2   0.3   0.5   0.3   9.1   9.9  15.0  17.0 |  45.5
Da |     x     x   0.2   0.1         0.3   0.4   0.6  13.9  14.1  16.7  17.3 |  33.3
Cg |     x     x   0.2   0.2   0.4         1.5   0.9  14.4  14.9  17.4  16.3 |  27.0
Ck |     x     x   0.6   0.2   0.4   0.9         1.2  17.1  18.4  16.5  14.9 |  20.6
Cr |     x     x   0.3   0.2   0.2   1.1   1.3        14.8  15.1  16.8  15.6 |  26.7
Un |     x     x   1.0   1.0   0.7   2.1   3.1   2.1         4.7   1.9   1.2 |   0.5
RP |     x     x   0.6   0.2   0.9   1.8   1.9   2.4   4.0         1.2   0.7 |   0.2
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |     x
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |     x

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  228.7 |  [B]90.6[/B]   9.1   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.10 | 34.78
SL |  137.3 |   9.3  [B]83.3[/B]   5.4   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.01 | 30.83
Ya |  158.5 |   0.0   1.6  [B]24.3[/B]  20.6  17.2  13.9  11.1   8.1   2.5   0.6     x     x |  4.99 | 25.20
Ha |  170.9 |   0.0   2.5  [B]22.1[/B]  20.9  17.5  14.5  11.8   8.6   1.8   0.2     x     x |  4.99 | 25.09
Da |  133.3 |   0.0   1.4  15.3  16.6  [B]17.3[/B]  16.6  15.6  14.0   2.6   0.5     x     x |  5.51 | 24.52
Cg |  154.6 |   0.0   1.2  11.6  14.2  16.2  17.4  [B]17.5[/B]  15.0   5.3   1.5     x     x |  5.85 | 24.17
Ck |   86.9 |   0.0   0.4   8.6  11.6  14.4  17.0  19.1  [B]19.6[/B]   7.1   2.1     x     x |  6.23 | 23.80
Cr |  130.3 |     x   0.4  12.3  14.0  15.6  16.9  [B]17.2[/B]  15.9   5.9   1.9     x     x |  5.92 | 23.78
Un |  106.2 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.2   4.5  10.2  37.6  [B]44.2[/B]   0.0     x |  9.12 | 19.04
RP |   53.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   3.2   8.5  37.2  [B]48.9[/B]   0.1     x |  9.27 | 18.43
Br |   30.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1  [B]80.7[/B]  19.2 | 11.19 |  8.65
Pr |   21.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  19.2  [B]80.8[/B] | 11.81 |  5.71

   |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  228.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.5   4.6   6.9  13.9  14.6  [B]20.5[/B]  14.2  14.3   5.1   3.6 | 34.78
SL |  137.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.9   3.4   9.1  11.1  [B]18.9[/B]  15.7  18.3   9.7   8.1   2.2   1.2     x     x     x | 30.83
Ya |  158.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   1.2   2.5   7.1   9.5  17.2  15.6  [B]19.8[/B]  11.5  10.3   3.1   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.20
Ha |  170.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.5   2.8   7.8  10.0  17.6  15.5  [B]19.2[/B]  11.0   9.6   2.8   1.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.09
Da |  133.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.7   4.4  11.0  12.3  [B]19.5[/B]  15.1  16.6   8.4   6.6   1.7   0.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.52
Cg |  154.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.4   2.7   7.3   9.5  17.1  15.6  [B]19.5[/B]  11.4  10.3   3.1   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.17
Ck |   86.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.1   5.0   7.0  15.3  14.8  [B]20.3[/B]  13.4  12.6   5.4   3.5   0.8   0.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.80
Cr |  130.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.4   2.2   3.7   9.4  11.2  [B]18.7[/B]  15.3  17.9   9.6   8.0   2.2   1.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.78
Un |  106.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.0   4.4   6.2  13.8  13.8  [B]19.7[/B]  13.9  14.0   6.5   4.7   1.1   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.04
RP |   53.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7   4.1  13.0  13.5  [B]20.7[/B]  15.1  15.0   7.7   5.3   1.8   0.9   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.43
Br |   30.2 |     x     x   5.1   7.0  18.5  17.0  [B]21.2[/B]  13.3  10.3   4.4   2.3   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.65
Pr |   21.0 |  11.8  13.8  [B]24.3[/B]  18.4  16.2   8.4   4.7   1.7   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.71

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 13 February:

--- Bye Lock - 30+ (SLU, HVD, YAL, DAR) ---
QU 29 - 39 [1-5]
--- Home Lock - 24+ (Field) ---
SLU 24 - 34 [1-9]
DC 20 - 30 [1-10]
HVD 20 - 30 [1-10]
YAL 20 - 30 [1-10]
CCT 18 - 28 [2-10]
COR 17 - 27 [2-11]
COL 17 - 27 [2-11]
RPI 14 - 24 [2-12]
UC 13 - 23 [3-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 21+ (Field) ---
BRN 7 - 17 [8-12]
--- Home Eligible - 17+ (COR, COL, UC, RPI) ---
PU 5 - 15 [9-12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: BRN, @COL, @COR, SLU, CCT
QU: CCT, YAL, BRN, @HVD, @DC
COL: @DC, UC, RPI, @YAL, @BRN
COR: @HVD, RPI, UC, @BRN, @YAL
YAL: @RPI, @QU, @PU, COL, COR
CCT: @QU, DC, HVD, @RPI, @UC
RPI: YAL, @COR, @COL, CCT, SLU
SLU: @PU, HVD, DC, @UC, @RPI
BRN: @UC, @PU, @QU, COR, COL
HVD: COR, @SLU, @CCT, QU, PU
DC: COL, @CCT, @SLU, PU, QU
PU: SLU, BRN, YAL, @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, DC, QU, RPI, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COL, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU: BRN,
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC, YAL
RPI: COL, COR, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: BRN, CCT, HVD, PU,
YAL: BRN, COL, HVD, PU, QU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

HIGHS:
Princeton cannot catch the 8th place team; they will be on the road in the first round. As RPI and Union do not play each other again, they can get up to 9th potentially.
Brown can get into a tie for 8th with Colgate, and they would win the tiebreak on ECAC wins.
Union cannot catch SLU. They are able to get into third alone.
RPI is able to get into a tie for second with SLU, and they would win the tiebreak on top 4 if Union were to be the fourth place team (SLU would have a split, RPI would have a sweep. Both have been swept by Quinnipiac.).
Colgate, Cornell, and Clarkson cannot catch Quinnipiac. There are several ways for them to get to second place alone.
The remaining teams are able to get to first place alone.

LOWS:
Quinnipiac has clinched a home game; the weekend is TBD. It is possible, with a four way tie for the Cleary Cup at 30, for Quinnipiac to finish in 5th. They cannot get any lower.
Because of the combination of games, SLU cannot finish in 10th. The only way to get them into 9th is a 3-way tie for 7th at 24 with RPI and Colgate; points would go RPI 6, CLG 4, SLU 2.
There are plenty of ways for Dartmouth, Harvard, Yale, and Clarkson to finish in 10th.
It is possible, based on tiebreaks for ECAC wins (COL) and record vs. Top 4 (COR), that Cornell and Colgate could finish in a tie for 10th with Brown, and given the right combination of teams at the top (one possibility is QU, SLU, DC, and RPI), could finish in 11th.
There are several ways for all other teams to finish in 12th exclusively.

LOCKS:
Bye: As mentioned with Quinnipiac's low, there can be a 4-way tie at 30. If Quinnipiac takes points from Brown or Clarkson, it's a 4-way tie for 2nd, making 30 still the lock.
Home: There are a few ways to get a two-way tie for 8th at 24 points.

ELIGIBLES:
Bye: There are a couple of ways to get a three-way tie for 4th at 21 points.
Home: Colgate, Cornell, Union, and RPI may get into a few combinations of a three-way tie for 8th at 17.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2014-15

After 14 February:

QU 31 - 39 [1-2]
--- Bye Lock - 29 (SLU, HVD) ---
SLU 25 - 33 [1-8]
YAL 22 - 30 [2-8]
--- Home Lock - 22+ (YAL) ---
HVD 21 - 29 [2-10]
DC 20 - 28 [2-10]
COL 19 - 27 [2-10]
CCT 18 - 26 [2-10]
COR 18 - 26 [2-10]
RPI 14 - 22 [4-11]
UC 13 - 21 [4-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 21+ (HVD) ---
--- Home Eligible - 18+ (COR, CCT) ---
BRN 9 - 17 [9-12]
PU 6 - 14 [10-12]



Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UC: @COL, @COR, SLU, CCT
QU: YAL, BRN, @HVD, @DC
COL: UC, RPI, @YAL, @BRN
COR: RPI, UC, @BRN, @YAL
YAL: @QU, @PU, COL, COR
CCT: DC, HVD, @RPI, @UC
RPI: @COR, @COL, CCT, SLU
SLU: HVD, DC, @UC, @RPI
BRN: @PU, @QU, COR, COL
HVD: @SLU, @CCT, QU, PU
DC: @CCT, @SLU, PU, QU
PU: BRN, YAL, @DC, @HVD

Tie-breaks (3pts or more, 1-2pts with game in hand, or 2 games to play):
BRN: PU, RPI,
CCT: BRN, DC, RPI, YAL
COL: BRN, CCT, DC, PU, SLU, UC,
COR: BRN, CCT, COL, HVD, UC, YAL
DC: BRN, COR, PU, UC,
HVD: CCT, COL, DC, PU, QU, RPI,
PU: BRN,
QU: BRN, COL, COR, DC, PU, RPI, SLU, UC, YAL
RPI: COL, COR, PU, UC,
SLU: BRN, COR, DC, HVD, PU, RPI, UC, YAL
UC: CCT, HVD, PU,
YAL: BRN, COL, HVD, PU, QU, RPI,

Tiebreak Procedure:
Head-2-Head, Number of Wins, Record v Top4, Record v Top8

HIGHS:
Princeton cannot catch the 8th place team; they will be on the road in the first round. As RPI holds the tiebreak, they cannot get to 9th. They are able to get into 10th, either alone or via tiebreak.
Brown cannot catch the 8th place team; they will be on the road in the first round.
Union (7) can get into a four-way tie for 4th with Dartmouth (6), Harvard (6), and Clarkson (5); they would win on points between tied teams.
RPI cannot reach third due to losing the tiebreak with Yale. They are able to get into fourth by themselves.
Only Quinnipiac and SLU are able to get enough points to finish in first place alone.
The remaining teams are able to get to second place alone.

LOWS:
Quinnipiac has clinched a bye. The only team able to catch Quinnipiac is SLU, and QU wins the Cleary Cup two more points.
SLU and Yale have clinched a home series, weekend is TBD. They are each able to get to 8th place.
Harvard is able to get into a tie for 9th, and due to the tiebreak over Union, would finish 10th.
There are plenty of ways for Dartmouth, Colgate, Cornell, and Clarkson to finish in 10th.
RPI, due to owning the tiebreaks with Princeton and Union, as well as Brown and Princeton having a tie thus far, cannot finish in last. They are able to finish in 11th exclusively.
There are several ways for all other teams to finish in 12th exclusively.

LOCKS:
Bye: With Dartmouth getting to 28, SLU and Harvard can get to 29, and Yale 30; therefore 29 is the lock.
Home: This is 22 with the tiebreak, which Yale owns over RPI.

ELIGIBLES:
Bye: Union's high with tiebreak explains this.
Home: CCT and Cornell can be passed at 18.
 
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