ECAC Projected Standings 2012-13

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2012-13

Only two weekends left in the ECAC regular season and the race* is as tight as ever. Your projected standings:

1. Quinnipiac (38)
2. RPI (26)
3. Union (25)
4. St. Lawrence (24)
-----
5. Yale (23.4)
6. Dartmouth (23.3)
7. Princeton (20.4)
8. Clarkson (19.9)
-----
9. Brown (18)
10. Colgate (16.5)
11. Cornell (16.1)
12. Harvard (13)

(Rounding error: -2)

At this point in the season, the projections start to look a lot like the real standings. In fact, the only difference between these and the current standings is that the ties are broken (sometimes improperly) in these. In any case, Quinnipiac (2 pts ) will be #1. RPI (4 pts) has jumped to 2nd, and in exchange, Yale (0 pts) fell to 5th. Union and SLU (both 4 pts) jump into a bye positions. 2nd and 6th are separated by less than 3 points, so every game matters (as if they didn't before). Down the table, Clarkson (2 pts) moved back into home-ice and Colgate (0 pts) fell out. Cornell and Harvard remain in last, despite taking 3 points a piece this weekend.

As far as clinching positions goes, Quinnipiac has first place locked up. Union, Yale, SLU, and Dartmouth cannot take last. RPI cannot do worse than tie for 9th, just as Colgate and Cornell can only tie for 2nd. Harvard cannot place higher than 7th. Without looking too hard at tiebreakers and remaining schedules, it looks like everything else is still up for grabs. Teams may be a little more constricted based on who plays who, but from a purely "this many points are still available" standpoint, those are the limits.

* - For 2nd, not 1st

 

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2012-13

Only three games left! Have some mid-weekend projected standings!

1. Quinnipiac (39)
2. St. Lawrence (25)
3. RPI (24)
4. Union (23.5)
-----
5. Yale (22.7)
6. Dartmouth (21.7)
7. Clarkson (21.5)
8. Princeton (20)
-----
9. Brown (19)
10. Colgate (17.8)
11. Cornell (17.6)
12. Harvard (12)

(Rounding error: +1)

 

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2012-13

Just one weekend of ECAC regular season remains, and we've come a long way with these projections. Here they are:

1. Quinnipiac (38)
2. RPI (25)
3. St. Lawrence (24)
4. Yale (23.4)
-----
5. Dartmouth (22.8)
6. Union (22)
7. Clarkson (20.4)
8. Brown (20.0)
-----
9. Cornell (18.8)
10. Princeton (18.7)
11. Colgate (17)
12. Harvard (13)

(Rounding error: -1)

With only two games left to play, there's not much left to be projected, but things may still change as a team that gets to play Harvard this weekend has a better chance of picking up points than one that plays Quinnipiac. That said, these projections are near identical to the actual standings. The only differences come from breaking ties (sometimes in a manner different from the actual tiebreakers). Union and Princeton each dropped a few spaces as a result of no-point weekends. Conversely, Cornell got a little bump from their 4-point effort, but it wasn't enough to keep them from packing their bags next week.

On clinching:

----------------------------------------
|  |Rp|Un|Br|Ya|Cg|Cr|Ck|Sl|Da|Ha|Pr|Qu|
----------------------------------------
|Rp|--| 8|XX| 7|XX|XX| T| 6| 7|XX|XX| E|
|Un| 2|--| 7| 4|XX| 8| 6| 3| 4|XX| 8| E| 
|Br| E| 3|--| 2| 8| 6| 4| 1| 2|XX| 6| E|
|Ya| 3| 6| 8|--|XX| T| 7| 4| 5|XX| T| E|
|Cg| E| E| 2| E|--| 3| 1| E| E| 8| 3| E|
|Cr| E| 2| 4| 1| 7|--| 3| E| 1|XX| 5| E|
|Ck| 1| 4| 6| 3| T| 7|--| 2| 3|XX| 7| E|
|Sl| 4| 7| T| 6|XX|XX| 8|--| 6|XX|XX| E|
|Da| 3| 6| 8| 5|XX| T| 7| 4|--|XX| T| E|
|Ha| E| E| E| E| 2| E| E| E| E|--| E| E|
|Pr| E| 2| 4| 1| 7| 5| 3| E| 1|XX|--| E|
|Qu|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|XX|--|
----------------------------------------

Key:
E - Team A cannot be caught by Team B (magic number ≤ 0)
T - Team A can tie but not pass Team B (magic number = 9)
XX - Team A cannot catch Team B (magic number > 9)

The above table is to be read top to bottom, not left to right. It contains magic numbers of points won by team A (top) and lost by team B (left) for team A to pass team B outright (no ties). For example, a combination of RPI winning and SLU losing 4 points will make it so RPI cannot be caught by SLU. In short, you want your team's column to have lots of Es and no XXs (like Quinnipiac's).

 

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2012-13

I won't give you end of season projected standings because they're obviously identical to the real standings. What I can give you is a brief recap of what we saw this year.

I'm sure most readers are familiar with the ECAC pick the standings contest run by vicb. Well, each week (19 times, preseason through end), I saved the projections and I have rated them all as if they were entrants in the Pick the Standings contest. Not until week 12 (late January) would the prediction have won the contest. The worst prediction (Preseason) would have taken 84th. Here is a graph detailing the predictions' move toward perfect over the season (and enjoy how good the women's predictions were).

Note: Week 4 was Thanksgiving, and weeks 7-9 were the mid-season break.

I also plotted each teams path up and down the standings.

Sorry that this one is a little hard to read, because of the constant movement and having 4 red teams, 2 blue teams, 2 green teams, 2 maroon-ish teams. Despite starting in 8th, Quinnipiac rose quickly. grabbed 1st at Week 5 and never let go. On the other end, Harvard started in 4th, but fell and was in last from week 13 on. SLU had a crazy ride, starting in 2nd, falling all of the way to 12th, rising back to 3rd, and ending up in 6th. RPI started in 10th, spent four weeks in last, then slowly worked their way up and finished in 2nd.