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ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

I mentioned that last week was weird because there was no change in the standings, but I have to say that this is even weirder, because The Fan Average has nudged past sgt12 to take over the top spot with just one weekend left to play. Finally, the wisdom of the masses has asserted itself and we're set to have a 2006 Time Person of the Year-type event where every single one of us can claim victory. What a time to be alive.

Code: 
Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    51    The Fan Average   12
 2    12         Go Puckman   14
      13          Patronick   14
      37              sgt12   14
 5     6         Ralph Baer   16
 6     8       techtodenver   18
       9  iowabasedtraveler   18
 8    14               Turk   20
      34            Rainman   20
10    19         GoldenBear   26
      43  DrDemento+JennyRN   26
12     7            drshoen   28
      35            bothman   28
      38            apple2k   28
15    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   32
      27          GreenBear   32
17    15      ecachawkeyfan   34
      23            fr. joe   34
      31           slumulva   34
      47       SnowDogFlyer   34
21     2          The Media   36
      48        NPC19850330   36
23    33        Mike Hutter   38
24     2        The Coaches   40
25     4           sezenack   42
      26           Saints#1   42
      44              johnk   42
28     5       allnightwong   44
29     3          CLKHockey   46
      30           lugnut92   46
      32 still an empty net   46
32    11            kdiff77   50
      18             cudmud   50
      41           sshablak   50
35    42          BIG Green   54
36    17      goldenbriggsy   56
37    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   60
      39          red133883   60
39     2      Dr. Last Year   62
      22           TchrBill   62
41    16           Dutchman   70
42    50               TBRW   78
43    40            Rjm7272   82
44    20   Earl_Leatherland   86
45    29         ColSkate65   96
46     2  The Random Number  274
--    50                 --   48
 
Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

The final results are in and this year's winner is........ Go Puckman! He just edged out Ralph and the Fan Average to take the #1 spot with the best final score in the history of this contest. In fact, the top five contestants this year would match or beat the previous best winning score (jmhusker, 24, 2015-16). As expected, the Random Number generator put up the worst score by a huge margin, though still only a middle-of-the-road worst score historically. Our worst human poster ColSkate65 had far and away the best worst score ever, and even finished better than two of our past winners.

Code: 
Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    12         Go Puckman   16
 2     6         Ralph Baer   18
      51    The Fan Average   18
 4    13          Patronick   20
      37              sgt12   20
 6     8       techtodenver   26
       9  iowabasedtraveler   26
      14               Turk   26
      34            Rainman   26
10    19         GoldenBear   28
11     7            drshoen   32
12    43  DrDemento+JennyRN   34
13    23            fr. joe   36
      31           slumulva   36
      38            apple2k   36
16    27          GreenBear   38
      30           lugnut92   38
      35            bothman   38
      47       SnowDogFlyer   38
20    25   TalonsUpPuckDown   42
21    33        Mike Hutter   44
      48        NPC19850330   44
23     4           sezenack   46
      15      ecachawkeyfan   46
25     2          The Media   48
26     2        The Coaches   50
      26           Saints#1   50
      44              johnk   50
29     5       allnightwong   54
30     3          CLKHockey   56  
      32 still an empty net   56
32    18             cudmud   58
33    11            kdiff77   60
34    41           sshablak   64
35    42          BIG Green   66
36    17      goldenbriggsy   70
37    24  Bronco Hockey Fan   70
38    16           Dutchman   74
39     2      Dr. Last Year   76
      22           TchrBill   76
41    39          red133883   78
42    40            Rjm7272   88
43    20   Earl_Leatherland   96
44    50               TBRW   98
45    29         ColSkate65  116
46     2  The Random Number  282
--    50                 --   62

I'll post all of the more in-depth analysis graphs later, but I wanted to get the final results out.
 
Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Third time is a charm :) Sorry Ralph, but at least you lost to a die hard RPI fan. :D
 
Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Let's go a little more in-depth. Obviously congrats again to Go Puckman, who didn't miss any team by more than two spots and nailed 5 teams. This is going to get repetitive, but we all did extremely well this year. Our worst poster (ColSkate65) this year would have beaten half of the field last year, which was already a pretty good year. Last year's winner didn't compete for reasons, but last year's loser (me), improved significantly for no discernable reason (*cough* it's because RPI didn't cost me 100 points *cough*).

Given that all of our scores were very good and the Fan Average finished so close to the top, it should come as no surprise we came pretty close on pretty much every team. More than half of us pegged Cornell and SLU for first and last, respectively, with the former costing us less than a point on average. Further, there were seven more teams that cost us less than 4 points on average. The only real shocker of the bunch was RPI, who no one picked correctly and cost us about 19 points on average. You could interpret all of this as the league being very predictable, but I choose to read it as us all being very smart.

Some graphs:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/J6DV4E8.png" height="450"></img>
(left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/HF4rLMj.png" height="450"></img>
(This year compared to previous editions of the contest)
 
Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

lugnut, I'm not a math wizard so don't have the foggiest about your "diagrams." But I believe this is the 3rd year out of the last 4 that I've come in last. At least I'm consistent :-( Thanks for doing the contest again!
 
Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

Congrats to Puckman (and to RPI Hockey), and thanks, Lugnut!
 
Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2019-2020

ColSkate65 said:
lugnut, I'm not a math wizard so don't have the foggiest about your "diagrams." But I believe this is the 3rd year out of the last 4 that I've come in last. At least I'm consistent :-( Thanks for doing the contest again!
Click to expand...

It's not that bad! Last year, you finished 39th of 46 (but I took last), 17-18 you tied for 20th of 49 (but I took second from last of real people), 16-17 you took 53rd of 58 (second last for me!), but 15-16 you did chunk it, taking 63rd of 63.
 
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