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Dump Term 2 Part 5: He Didn't Specify Which Civilization Would Die...

10 more years.

Donald Trump just turned 79 (born June 14, 1946). I wanted to estimate when, based on U.S. actuarial data and some light statistical adjustment, he becomes more likely to be dead than alive.

Using the 2022 Social Security life tables for white American males, the annual death risk at 79 is about 4.37%. From there, risk increases steadily each year. But I adjusted these risks by –20% to reflect Trump’s: • Lifelong abstinence from alcohol and tobacco • Access to elite healthcare • Statin-controlled cholesterol • Family longevity (father lived to 93, mother to 88, grandmother to 96)

Even accounting for mild negatives like low physical activity, high stress, short sleep, and being overweight (BMI ~27–28), his net risk profile is healthier than average for his age group.

After adjusting each year’s mortality risk and calculating cumulative survival, the model shows: • At age 90, he still has a ~52% chance of being alive. • By age 91, that drops to ~47%.

So: Donald Trump becomes statistically more likely to be dead than alive sometime between late 2036 and mid-2037, just after his 90th birthday.
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Getting paid to sit around at work doing nothing because Dumpy has landed here on his way back and has delayed all the planes I’m supposed to be working on.
 
ticapnews said:
Yeah, but it won't need water. It's pretty cool in the Utah desert, right?
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The Utah desert is a high desert. My buddy was involved in an Outward Bound sort of thing for Utah’s juvenile corrections. Kids who were convicted(?) of non-physical crimes had the option to do that program rather than juvenile detention. They camped in the desert for the entirety of their time there. Yes, nights can get very cold. Summer days won’t get blistering hot, but they will get into temp ranges that likely aren’t going to cool the data center too easily.
 
St. Clown said:
They camped in the desert for the entirety of their time there. Yes, nights can get very cold. Summer days won’t get blistering hot, but they will get into temp ranges that likely aren’t going to cool the data center too easily.
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Did they release bunny rabbits and make them hunt for food, like SERE training?
 
St. Clown said:
The Utah desert is a high desert. My buddy was involved in an Outward Bound sort of thing for Utah’s juvenile corrections. Kids who were convicted(?) of non-physical crimes had the option to do that program rather than juvenile detention. They camped in the desert for the entirety of their time there. Yes, nights can get very cold. Summer days won’t get blistering hot, but they will get into temp ranges that likely aren’t going to cool the data center too easily.
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Well, it used to get cool at night. The data center will release 23 atom bombs worth of heat every day. Climate scientists say that will increase the temperature by up to 30 degrees at night and turn the region into another Sahara. I imagine that will do wonders for the Great Salt Lake and the residents of Utah.
 
ticapnews said:
Well, it used to get cool at night. The data center will release 23 atom bombs worth of heat every day. Climate scientists say that will increase the temperature by up to 30 degrees at night and turn the region into another Sahara. I imagine that will do wonders for the Great Salt Lake and the residents of Utah.
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And that heat is going to drift Eastward as well, picking up even more moisture from the farm fields of the great plains/west Midwest bringing even *more* hot and humid air into the Great Lakes region.

Chicago will become the new Oklahoma City.
 
I remember when I was a kid I watched Star Wars and thought "What the hell is a moisture farmer?" and now as I enter retirement I might actually get to see some right here in my own country! Exciting times!
 
Trump: "I don't give a shit about American's personal finances."

Mike Johnson: "I don't know what context that was taken out of, but he wouldn't mean it."

John Fetterman: "It was a clipped sentence. Obviously he cares."

JD Vance: "He does care about the American's finances."

Trump: "You're fuckin' right I said 'I don't give a shit about American's finances,' and I'll say it again."

www.threads.com

Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads

Trump on saying he doesn't think about Americans' financial situation: "It's a perfect statement. I'll make it again. Everybody agrees."
www.threads.com www.threads.com
 
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