Div III Bracketology

[spwood]

I fooled around with a women's bracketology based on the standings and Pairwise rankings as of 1/30/2023. While coming up with the participants was easy, having two NESCAC teams in the middle of the rankings made coming up with pairings difficult... There are going to be many ways the committee could pair up these teams, but I just throw one out here. I tried to give the byes to the highest ranked teams. Here are the criteria (that I got from the 2023 Pre-Championship Manual) that came up while I did this:

• Mileage between schools (the "Adrian" issue) is 500 miles. Hamilton fell just outside this limit.
• No inter-conference games in the first round. (exact wording: "Teams from the same conference will not be paired to play each other in the first contest.")

Auto qualifiers:

Amherst (1)
Gustavus Adolphus (2)
Plattsburgh (5)
Elmira (13)
St. Norbert (15)
Nazareth (19)
Suffolk (21)

At - Large:

Wisc-River Falls (3) Pool B
Adrian (4) Pool C
Hamilton (6) Pool C
Middlebury (7) Pool C

First Round:

Nazareth @ Elmira
St. Norbert @ Wisc-River Falls
Suffolk @ Hamilton

Quarterfinals:

Nazarath/Elmira @ Adrian
St. Norbert/Wisc-River Falls @ Gustavus Adolphus
Suffolk/Hamilton @ Plattsburgh
Middlebury @ Amherst

That's what I came up with, but as I said, there were many ways this could have gone...

 

[SHockey98]

Isn't Utica leading the UCHC? Would that change things at all?

 

[Scott_TG]

I think they would break the intra-conference rule before doing 1st round flights

 

[4and20]

Number 2 Gustavus at Number 1 UW River Falls tonight for the rubber match. And yes, I could see the NCAA putting the number 1& 2 seeds against each other in the first round. After all they are only West teams, how good could they be? Oh ya, if it hasn't for a blown offside in overtime last spring, oh well.

 

[SHockey98]

Number 2 Gustavus at Number 1 UW River Falls tonight for the rubber match. And yes, I could see the NCAA putting the number 1& 2 seeds against each other in the first round. After all they are only West teams, how good could they be? Oh ya, if it hasn't for a blown offside in overtime last spring, oh well.

Those two facing off is 100% happening, lol. It just sucks the "big changes" the NCAA was making won't actually be that significant for what matters. I don't wanna be that guy, but yeah... it's hard to tell here but the play was offsides. And especially given what the one ref said about it, I understand why they had to stay with the call on the ice. The cameraperson really screwed up not being on that pass though, because that was the evidence had it not been so blurry. The puck was just reaching the blue line with the skater already cleared it. See photo:

 

[Scott_TG]

River Falls wins it in OT with a goal from Abigail Stow.

Top 10 in PWR is now:

Amherst
River Falls
Adrian
GAC
Plattsburgh
Hamilton
Middlebury
Colby
Cortland
Utica

Plattsburgh hosts Cortland for 2 this weekend and Amherst takes on Colby for 2 so the PWR could change by quite a bit depending on how those games turn out.

 

[Scott_TG]

I was working on my own bracketology but it became too complex, especially considering things will probably look way different a month from now.

To do a bracket with the leaders now puts SNC in but I strongly believe that once they play Adrian and Adrian makes up the two games difference in conference game plays Adrian will take the top spot and likely win the NCHA Pool A.

I attempted to bracket under that assumption but if the season ended with Adrian as Pool A and PWR as it is we have the NESCAC not only with Amherst as Pool A but with all 3 Pool C bids (Hamilton, Middlebury, and Colby).

While mathematically possible I don't think they will all be there in a month, especially since they have regular season series against each other and then conference playoffs. Midd has 2 each against Wesleyan, Williams and Hamilton left plus a non-conference against Norwich. Hamilton has that Midd series plus 2 against Bowdoin and a Conn College squad that Midd couldn't beat this past weekend. Colby takes on Amherst this weekend, Wesleyan and then Conn Coll in 2 game sets. Amherst, who I think is safe for at least a Pool C has two against Colby and Williams each plus a non-conference against CCC leader Suffolk.

Outside of the NESCAC we still have Plattsburgh who has 2 against Cortland who has a win over them this season plus Plattsburgh will have to beat them and/or a tough Oswego team in the NEWHL.

This is as close as the league has ever been (at least in the East) since I've been following

 

[SHockey98]

Now that the pre-championship manuals and host manuals are all updated on NCAA's website, I noticed this nugget:

"The final site of the championship will not be held in the same sport region more than three times in a period of four consecutive years."

There's probably your answer in terms of who's hosting. No one was for sure how they were going to handle the COVID situation given that it wiped out two championships in a row. Since it went to Middlebury last year, technically it could've been the West's turn to host. However, the way that the above statement is worded by saying "four consecutive years" confirms that the West doesn't have to host until 2025. Depending on the bracket, they could put it out west, but it ain't happening this year. Even if it's River Falls, GAC, and Adrian right at the top, there won't be enough teams behind them. So prepare yourselves, west fans. It's going east folks, whether it's at Amherst or not.

 

[Scott_TG]

If the top western team bids to host and meets the requirement it will be out west. If they only went out west when it was east 3 straight years, St. Thomas would not have hosted in 2019 just two years after Adrian did in 2017.

The only time it HAS to be hosted in one region is if its been in the other three consecutive years. In a case like this year it could go either way.

 

[SHockey98]

If the top western team bids to host and meets the requirement it will be out west. If they only went out west when it was east 3 straight years, St. Thomas would not have hosted in 2019 just two years after Adrian did in 2017.

The only time it HAS to be hosted in one region is if its been in the other three consecutive years. In a case like this year it could go either way.

In a perfect world, yes. And I understand there is still a slight, slight chance. But assuming the only west teams to make the NCAAs are River Falls and Gustavus, and the faux-west Adrian, I can't see the River-Falls/Gustavus winner hosting three teams who will be flying in. Even if UWRF/GAC are 1 and 2 in pairwise by the end, unless 2 of Eau Claire/Augsburg/St. Norbert/Aurora sneaks in, it's going to be east. There's no shot they pay for 3 flights.

 

[4and20]

There seems to be some know it all's on here regarding what the NCAA will and will not do. Let me remind everyone that in 2010 three, that's 3 schools were flown out to Minnesota for the finals at Gustavus, Amherst, Norwich and Elmira. Also, and I don't have the time to look it up St. Norbert was flown out east for a first round game I believe against Plattsburg. So, yes the NCAA will fly teams for first round games to keep bracket integrity and have flown three teams to the finals in the past. I am not aware of any significant changes to make that any different this year, but I am just some schlep out here in fly over country.

 

[SHockey98]

There seems to be some know it all's on here regarding what the NCAA will and will not do. Let me remind everyone that in 2010 three, that's 3 schools were flown out to Minnesota for the finals at Gustavus, Amherst, Norwich and Elmira. Also, and I don't have the time to look it up St. Norbert was flown out east for a first round game I believe against Plattsburg. So, yes the NCAA will fly teams for first round games to keep bracket integrity and have flown three teams to the finals in the past. I am not aware of any significant changes to make that any different this year, but I am just some schlep out here in fly over country.

My apologies, as I'm really not trying to be a know-it-all.. lol... However, I did look into those instances a little deeper.

In 2010, that was the fourth season where the rule was in place that the tournament had to be moved around and couldn't be in the same region for more than 3 consecutive years, meaning it was time for the West to host. Thus, the NCAA had no choice but to fly three teams west with a seven team field.

When St. Norbert flew east in the first round (2013), it was an eight team field. With the MIAC and NCHA getting auto-bids, this was prone to happen. Gustavus and St. Norbert won the auto-bids, and River Falls got the at-large. Thus, there was an uneven balance, with 3 West and 5 East. Thus, the NCAA had no choice but to fly one east.

The two commonalities between those two years, was that the NCAA had no choice but to do that.

In 2023, with an 11-team field and no western Frozen Four requirement means the NCAA will have plenty of choices. With a plethora of teams out East to rotate between and no other legitimate West options behind the big 2 (I'm not counting Adrian for this exercise given the mileage), the NCAA theoretically could still put it west, especially when they are high in pairwise. But they won't, because in this current iteration of the bracket, provided if there's only 2 western teams within the limit, it's going east, no matter how strong those two are. There needs to be 4 for this to be a real discussion of the Frozen Four going east or west. Even if there's 3, there's a first round game in the current bracket where the NCAA could eliminate one of them right off the bat and we're right back to the same predicament. If it's 4, it is at least a conversation.

 

[tjoneslo]

The January term at Middlebuy ended this weekend, and three of the seniors on the Women's team graduated. Loosing seniors is always a challenge, but three weeks from the end of the season can be particularly hard.

As is typical with the NESCAC, this weekend was a set of surprise upsets. Amherst as a win and loss to Colby, Hamilton had a win and a tie at Bowdoin, Middlebury with a win and an overtime win against Wesleyan, and Conn had two wins against OOC opponents. This doesn't much adjust the NESCAC rankings.

 

[LongGame]

Will those graduating seniors not play the rest of the hockey season? Are they not allowed?

 

[Pioneer247]

This is my first time playing with the women's bracket but this is what makes sense to me:

Pool A:
CCC: Suffolk (24)
MIAC: Gustavus (5)
NCHA: St. Norbert (T-14)
NEHC: Elmira (9)
NESCAC: Amherst (1)
NEWHL: Plattsburgh (2)
UCHC: Utica (10)

Pool B:
UW-River Falls (3)

Pool C:

Adrian (4)
Hamilton (6)
Middlebury (7)

First Round:

St. Norbert @ Gustavus
Utica @ Middlebury
Suffolk @ Hamilton

Quarterfinals:

Utica/Middlebury @ Amherst
Suffolk/Hamilton @ Plattsburgh
St. Norbert/Gustavus @ UW-River Falls
Elmira @ Adrian

 

[4and20]

This is my first time playing with the women's bracket but this is what makes sense to me:

This actually makes a lot of sense, good job. I am really looking forward to the SNC/Adrian series in a couple of weeks, that will give a better sense of how good SNC might be come the playoffs, by my math they are 1 tie or point from the 1 seed and hosting the NCHA playoffs. SNC gets to rest next weekend while Adrian has to travel to Aurora and then to SNC for the final weekend. Brutal couple weekends for Adrian.

Correction to my math, SNC will need a win or two ties against Adrian to win the conference championship and the # 1 playoff seed for the conference playoffs. I assume if Adrian took 3 points against SNC they would win the conference and host. This is assuming Adrian wins both games next weekend.

 

[Scott_TG]

I did a bracket that assumes Adrian as the NCHA winner, which is based on the belief that Adrian would be the NCHA leader right now if the number of NCHA games played were even.


Field:
[TABLE="width: 227"]
[TR]
[TD]Bid[/TD]
[TD]School[/TD]
[TD]PWR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CCC[/TD]
[TD]Suffolk[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MIAC[/TD]
[TD]GAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NCHA[/TD]
[TD]Adrian[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NEHC[/TD]
[TD]Elmira[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NESCAC[/TD]
[TD]Amherst[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NEWHL[/TD]
[TD]Plattsburgh[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UCHC[/TD]
[TD]Utica[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool B[/TD]
[TD]UW-River Falls[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool C[/TD]
[TD]Hamilton[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool C[/TD]
[TD]Middlebury[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool C[/TD]
[TD]Colby[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Seed integrity is pretty bad but what I come up with does keep to no flights before the semis and no intra-conference 1st round, two of the things the manual says are to be avoided.

1st Round:

Suffolk at Middlebury
Colby at Plattsburgh
Utica at Hamilton

QF:

Suffolk/Midd at Amherst
Elmira at Adrian

Gustavus at River Falls
Colby/Plattsburgh vs Utica/Hamilton

Nazareth could do us all a favor and solve the Adrian issue by beating Utica...

 

[SHockey98]

Wow, Plattsburgh all the way up to 2 after this weekend....

Do you guys know if Pool B automatically go the top WIAC team in pairwise? Or is it the tournament champ? For example, I would imagine even if Eau Claire upset River Falls in their conference tourney, River Falls would still be the higher rated team. Would Eau Claire automatically get the Pool B in that situation?

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Wow, Plattsburgh all the way up to 2 after this weekend....

Do you guys know if Pool B automatically go the top WIAC team in pairwise? Or is it the tournament champ? For example, I would imagine even if Eau Claire upset River Falls in their conference tourney, River Falls would still be the higher rated team. Would Eau Claire automatically get the Pool B in that situation?

Pool B is always done by PWR.

 

[Scott_TG]

To expand on Russell's explanation, the Pool B will go to the school that is not eligible for Pool A bid that has the highest PWR Rank

Here are the Pool B eligible teams and their current PWR Rank: [TABLE="width: 321"]
[TR]
[TD]School[/TD]
[TD]Conference[/TD]
[TD]PWR Rnk[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wisconsin - River Falls[/TD]
[TD]WIAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wisconsin - Eau Claire[/TD]
[TD]WIAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wisconsin - Stevens Point[/TD]
[TD]WIAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Worcester State[/TD]
[TD]Independent[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wisconsin - Superior[/TD]
[TD]WIAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rivier[/TD]
[TD]Independent[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]61[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Northland[/TD]
[TD]WIAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anna Maria[/TD]
[TD]Independent[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hilbert[/TD]
[TD]Independent[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Based on the above and that there are only a couple of weeks left in the season I think River Falls is pretty much a lock for Pool B. Perhaps if River Falls lost all 3 remaining regular season games (including 2 to Eau Claire) and lost in the semifinals of the O'Brien Cup tourney (WIAC conference championship), it might be mathematically possible for Eau Claire to finish above River Falls in PWR but I doubt it.

If the WIAC finds one more member for women's hockey the Pool B berth becomes the official WIAC automatic berth rather than just the de facto one it is this season.

Right now we are slated to have the top 10 teams in PWR plus whoever wins the CCC conference championship.