I blame that one squarely on tax season.
If we go any better than 13-8 in April, we might run away and hide with a 15-game lead by the All Star break. If this team struggles at all, people are going to go ape****. Those people should be beaten with a shovel. If we're a few games above .500 a month from now, we're just fine. As long as we don't start out 2-12 or something heinous like that, I still think we're fine.
As for the division:
Chicago just doesn't have much talent and not much in the farm system.
Minnesota has a long way to go to get back to where they were. They're not losing 99 again, but I don't see them touching 85 wins, either.
Cleveland has too many question marks and injuries to take them seriously. They completely face-planted after a 30-15 start last year, and anyone that thinks Sizemore and Hafner are going to be healthy and contribute are drinking the same paint thinner I was when I did my little math problem you pointed out.
Kansas City is getting good quick, fast, and in a hurry, but Soria is out for the season, and they're counting on too much young starting pitching this season. I don't think it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be overly shocked to see them finish 2nd this year. 2013 may very well be a completely different matter for them.
Oh, and get ready for a lot of long games with this team. I mean 3:30-4:00 games.