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Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

NYT update, 68% of precincts reporting:

Code:
[B]Candidate	        Votes	 Pct.     Pledged delegates[/B]
Bernie Sanders          49,176	26.2%           6
Pete Buttigieg          44,870	23.9	        6
Amy Klobuchar           37,314	19.8	        4
Elizabeth Warren        17,535	 9.3	        0
Joseph R. Biden         15,651	 8.3	        0
Others                  23,504	12.5	        0

Warren's dead. Biden's dead but doesn't know it. It's a four horse race now: Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg's money.
Pretty much.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Amy and Pete are doing way better than I ever thought. Pete is gonna get quite the job in the Sanders cabinet.
 
The target is the people around the edges who don't vote because the process leaves them out. Not some mythical "middle ground" arena. The Dems run to the center and lose. The GOP runs to the fringe and wins. That's the political history of the United States for the last forty years.

Where does this 40-year retrospective place the 2 biggest-tent and most successful presidents (Bill & Barry)? I don’t remember thinking of them as fringy extremists... but I don’t trust my memory of the campaigns either. My hunch is that they were more like Amy - inspiringly optimistic moderates.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

To put Biden's collapse in perspective, he is more than twice as far behind Klobuchar in 3rd than he is ahead of Gabbard in 8th.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Where does this 40-year retrospective place the 2 biggest-tent and most successful presidents (Bill & Barry)? I don’t remember thinking of them as fringy extremists... but I don’t trust my memory of the campaigns either. My hunch is that they were more like Amy - inspiringly optimistic moderates.

They both ran as liberals. They both governed as centrists, disappointing and alienating that support and pushing it right back onto the sidelines.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

I think whoever wins the nom should run on the slogan “Make America Great Again.” Printt it on a billion blue hats. Voice it in ads showing an obese orange man being locked up in prison. Etc. Trump would die of rage by September.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

The Dems run to the center and lose. The GOP runs to the fringe and wins. That's the political history of the United States for the last forty years.

Do you mean that the Ds run to center voters with center candidates (BC and BO) and the Rs run to fringe voters with center candidates (Reagan and Bushes)?
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Fine. But are they gonna vote? And librul bastions? Really representative sampling you got going on there.

South-side Atlanta is the black/Latinx part of ATL. Most of north-side STL around the airport (and my former client site) is black - it's next door to Ferguson, FFS.

Austin has some Latinx and a few blacks, but otherwise yeah, it's white.

Seattle, Princeton - I've got nothing there.

I came home from Austin today, and was driven to the airport by an old Vietnam conscientious objector who, after giving me a mini-lecture in progressive politics and his path from former sexist conservative Marine to war-hating Marxist prog, informed me I need to stop making fun of "Trumpsters" and calling them sister-******** hicks.

IDK if I fully agree, because I didn't get a chance to tell him about my cultist relatives on the 25 min ride to the airport, but there may be some truth to what he said when it comes to rural folks who are 35 or under.
 
They both ran as liberals. They both governed as centrists, disappointing and alienating that support and pushing it right back onto the sidelines.
Did they lose support in reelection? The support having been sidelined? Or did it take until term 2 to become that disappointed?
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Do you mean that the Ds run to center voters with center candidates (BC and BO) and the Rs run to fringe voters with center candidates (Reagan and Bushes)?

Reagan was a genuine radical -- really the only radical president the US has had since Andrew Jackson. (FDR and LBJ were forced into radical policy by events.) The Bushes were centrists, although Cheney then pushed the US into a radical (and disastrous) foreign policy.

Clinton stressed traditional liberal themes to get elected but was a centrist. Obama was, I think a sincere liberal who was then warped and forced by circumstances into an ill-considered and naive centrism. I don't think he meant to hoodwink us, though he did.

But the main point is the GOP understand that to win you lay out a straightforward and aggressive agenda and the way to do that is to stress your radical ideological themes. The Dems are still neutered and follow the mantra that we can't scare Americans who are terror-stricken by the thought of any economic change, even though every time a renegade Dem candidate who gives voice to radical proposals gets highly animated and energetic support. The Dems act as if they are a Left party that is captured by TPTB who want to make sure we have a continual death march of growing inequality and tax holidays for the rich.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Did they lose support in reelection? The support having been sidelined? Or did it take until term 2 to become that disappointed?

IINM, they did lose support in their re-elections, as opposed to both Reagan and Dubya who did better. But that wasn't my main point. After all the deciding factor for elect-ability is charisma. You can shove Oprah out there with anything between hard core Marxism and full bore GOP fascism and she'll clean up.

The loss of support comes after the Cult of Personality dissipates with the end of the candidate's eligibility. The morning after.
 
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Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

I think whoever wins the nom should run on the slogan “Make America Great Again.” Printt it on a billion blue hats. Voice it in ads showing an obese orange man being locked up in prison. Etc. Trump would die of rage by September.

That’s kind of genius.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Bernie declared the winner with 88% in.

The exit poll data is interesting.


Some of these are slim margins, but:

Bernie wins 50 and under, Pete does well with a weird sliver of 50-64, then 65+ is all Amy.

Bernie wins all education types except for advanced degrees, which Amy takes.

Bernie wins below 100k, Pete wins above 100k.

Amy wins the religious.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

I just want a hard light conception of what Dump actually looks like, under the wig and the tanning and the make up. Bald, mottled, and disgusting.
 
the deciding factor for elect-ability is charisma. You can shove Oprah out there with anything between hard core Marxism and full bore GOP fascism and she'll clean up.

Yep. This is why Bernie can win. He’s tons of fun, and being an actual un-American freakin socialist just adds to that charm. It would be like having the Doc Brown character from Back to the Future live on tv hollering at people every day. I’m in.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

I just want a hard light conception of what Dump actually looks like, under the wig and the tanning and the make up. Bald, mottled, and disgusting.

They exist.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Turnout up 18% over 2016. Good.
 
Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

POC? Any returns?

Only one with data was Hispanics who made up 2% of the vote. Bernie won with 42% versus Amy and Pete at 14% and 11%.

Blacks made up 5%, but did not have enough respondents for sample size.
 
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