Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Yes I’m the one being childish, not the ones constantly posting about how others post while contributing nothing else for ten straight threads

1. Hi, I’m a message board. Have we met?
2. And you’re doing what different?

 

[rufus]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

He went to Manchester in 2004, didn’t say what year he went to Boston during the Republican convention.

Yeah, but she must be right. Why would I want to go to a Republican convention?

 

[BassAle]

Yeah, but she must be right. Why would I want to go to a Republican convention?

Freak show?

Actually I don’t think the Republican national convention has even been in Boson

 

[trixR4kids]

1. Hi, I’m a message board. Have we met?
2. And you’re doing what different?

I post about things other than whining about how other people post. He doesn’t. This is hard to understand for you?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

I post about things other than whining about how other people post. He doesn’t. This is hard to understand for you?

I'm sorry, you what?

No dude, you made a stupid hypothetical that makes no sense and then pretended to know what would I would think if it somehow happened. It’s like Rube in the cop thread levels of dumb lmao but we all love it when you day drink and post

Try using your brain for once

Yeah this logic totally follows!

Coming from you this is actually high praise lmao.

Oh look you made another ****ty post devoid of substance. Maybe try the S.T.F.U challenge

Yeah no ****... you tend to do that a lot

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Yeah those were me responding to people whining about how I post. It’s almost like they start every single one of these interactions and then you whine about me responding. When that doesn’t happen and I’m not being attacked, I post about things relevant to a thread like this. Thanks for proving my point!

 

[Spartanforlife4]

With 97% in, it’s a near tie. Pete is up three SDEs on Bernie.

Bernie leads the first popular vote by 6000 and the final by 2500.

Now at 100%, Pete has a two SDE lead.

Bernie won the first round vote by 6100 with 43.6k votes.

Bernie won the final round vote by 2600 with 45.8k.

There are still inconsistencies everywhere and the AP won’t declare a winner as a result.

Candidates have until 1 tomorrow to request a recanvass.

 

[Rover]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Now at 100%, Pete has a two SDE lead.

Bernie won the first round vote by 6100 with 43.6k votes.

Bernie won the final round vote by 2600 with 45.8k.

There are still inconsistencies everywhere and the AP won’t declare a winner as a result.

Candidates have until 1 tomorrow to request a recanvass.

Technically Mayor Pete won but since the delegate count seems to be a tie lets be done with Iowa already.

FWIW: Buttigieg making his move in NH as well. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/07/metro/pete-buttiegieg-continues-surge-nh-polling/

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Who cares about who won? Won is a stupid construct when what you care about is delegate count in June? They both got about the same.

 

[BassAle]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

538 model is currently giving Sanders 1:2 odds, followed by "no majority" @ 1:4.
Biden is currently at 1:5, Warren and Buttigieg are both at 1:20

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Yeah those were me responding to people whining about how I post. It’s almost like they start every single one of these interactions and then you whine about me responding. When that doesn’t happen and I’m not being attacked, I post about things relevant to a thread like this. Thanks for proving my point!

Be best!

 

[unofan]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Bernie wins if the race stays fragmented or if Warren drops out sooner than a lot of the centrist candidates.

If the centrists coalesce behind a single candidate by Super Tuesday, they'll win.

It's like 2016 trump all over again. And given that none of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar have a reason to drop out anytime soon, putting Bernie's odds at 50/50 is probably correct at this point.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Sounds about right to me.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Yeah those were me responding to people whining about how I post. It’s almost like they start every single one of these interactions and then you whine about me responding. When that doesn’t happen and I’m not being attacked, I post about things relevant to a thread like this. Thanks for proving my point!

Since I am That Pontificating Guy may I remind everybody that it is difficult to present a minority opinion on the Cafe since you wind up under a dog pile. This would happen with Bob Grey and Drew on the Right, and it happens with trix on the Left. And in my hypocrisy I'm usually the fattest dog when it happens to people with (granted, lunatic) fundamentalist opinions on religion.

I'm not saying don't do it. I'm saying be aware when we're doing it. The person suffocating under the pile is bound to feel pretty sh-tty towards the dogs.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Bernie wins if the race stays fragmented or if Warren drops out sooner than a lot of the centrist candidates.

If the centrists coalesce behind a single candidate by Super Tuesday, they'll win.

It's like 2016 trump all over again. And given that none of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar have a reason to drop out anytime soon, putting Bernie's odds at 50/50 is probably correct at this point.

Yes, I agree with this completely. The interesting dynamic here is the person more likely to drop out is the less radical. Usually it's the other way so that person feels the need to Hold The Torch High, but in this case, if you're Warren, why stay in? Bernie is everything Warren is plus more.

 

[Rover]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Yes, I agree with this completely. The interesting dynamic here is the person more likely to drop out is the less radical. Usually it's the other way so that person feels the need to Hold The Torch High, but in this case, if you're Warren, why stay in? Bernie is everything Warren is plus more.

I think Lizzy can hang in there until Super Tuesday and see how that goes. Its also absurd to be calculating odds after one fuked up Iowa contest. However if she can't break through by then its time for her to endorse someone else (presumably Sanders).

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

Its also absurd to be calculating odds after one fuked up Iowa contest.

That's kind of how Bayesian statistics works though

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus attendance vs. 2016...<br><br>Five most college-educated counties:<br><br>Dallas (Des Moines burbs): +38%<br>Johnson (Iowa City): +9%<br>Polk (Des Moines): +7%<br>Story (Ames): +1%<br>Linn (Cedar Rapids): +1%<br><br>Everywhere else: -6%</p>— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225806317740285952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[French Rage]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus attendance vs. 2016...<br><br>Five most college-educated counties:<br><br>Dallas (Des Moines burbs): +38%<br>Johnson (Iowa City): +9%<br>Polk (Des Moines): +7%<br>Story (Ames): +1%<br>Linn (Cedar Rapids): +1%<br><br>Everywhere else: -6%</p>— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225806317740285952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

As someone pointed out in the comments, is that interesting or does it just mirror population shifts?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

As someone pointed out in the comments, is that interesting or does it just mirror population shifts?

No clue. But does it matter? Dems do best in college-educated areas. At least recently. The more college-educated people vote, the better we'll do.



Also found this nugget today with Walsh dropping out.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Walsh suspended his Republican campaign against Trump after receiving ~1.4% in Iowa. He blamed the fact voters rejected him on the GOP being a "cult" and said he'd work to support any Democrat challenging Trump, even if that person is a socialist.<a href="https://t.co/7whgA1KGXm">https://t.co/7whgA1KGXm</a></p>— Jared Holt (@jaredlholt) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaredlholt/status/1225803730727116801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2020</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Joe Walsh is backing any of the Democrats in the field. Why can't Bernie and Yang voters do the same?