What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Status
Not open for further replies.
J

joecct

Well-known member
Thought we'd start a thread on how many incumbents get turned out in the primaries/conventions.

So far:

House
Dems: Alan Mollohan (WVa)
GOP: TBD

Senate:
Dems: TBD
GOP: Robert Bennett (UT)

Keep updating as your primaries happen. Up next:
Arkansas 5/18
Kentucky 5/18
Oregon 5/18
Pennsylvania 5/18
Idaho 5/25

Note: The Nebraska primary on 5/11 did not toss out any incumbents.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Didn't the HI-1 (Abercrombie) get primaried last week?

Edit: never mind. That was a special election for the term ending in the fall, and Abercrombie left to run for Guv.
 
Last edited:
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rand Paul up big on Trey Grayson in Kentucky, although it's not in the bag yet. Would be another blow to McConnell and the woefully inept Republican Senate Campaign Committee
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Rand Paul up big on Trey Grayson in Kentucky, although it's not in the bag yet. Would be another blow to McConnell and the woefully inept Republican Senate Campaign Committee
Click to expand...

I would think he would caucus with the GOP like his dad.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Kepler said:
I would think he would caucus with the GOP like his dad.
Click to expand...

Yep, definitely. Didn't mean it that way, I think Rand Paul will be a lockstep GOP vote on 90% of issues, but also willing to buck the trend when there is a difference of opinion.

I meant that, ol' Mitch has done everything in his power to ensure that Trey Grayson is the nominee, including lying about Paul's record on abortion to Dr. James Dobson and coming out and personally endorsing Grayson late last week.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Yep, definitely. Didn't mean it that way, I think Rand Paul will be a lockstep GOP vote on 90% of issues, but also willing to buck the trend when there is a difference of opinion.

I meant that, ol' Mitch has done everything in his power to ensure that Trey Grayson is the nominee, including lying about Paul's record on abortion to Dr. James Dobson and coming out and personally endorsing Grayson late last week.
Click to expand...

Oh. Got it.

The GOP should be embracing guys like Rand Paul, though. They're on-message with what people are angriest about, and they're intellectually honest. Granted, Paul would cause problems on votes on the "three T's" (torture, terrorism and tyranny), but right now the GOP should be doing everything it can to take blue seats away. Worry about the coalition after you've got the numbers.

I would love to be RNC chair right now. There are so many ways you could build on public anger with incumbents to make huge gains, then take credit as the economy turns around due to the very policies you're running against! :p
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Maybe Arlen Specter should have found a different party to join?
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pa_49_sestak_40_specter_suffol.php
Click to expand...

6a00d8341c4fe353ef013480be9b04970c-800wi


They're bluffing, folks. That's a double-action handgun, and his thumb isn't on the release.

Silly lefties.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I like the Sestak ad that says "Arlen Spector changed parties to save just one job...his."

I hate hypocrites. I'm voting for Sestak on Tuesday.

Toomey is crazier than Santorum. He'd beat Spector in a primary, but he's so out there that Sestak has a good chance of beating him in the fall.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

It blows me away whenever a guy who switches parties goes on to win a primary. It's the most nakedly opportunistic act a politician can perform. And that's saying something.

Cruising around the politico-dial at lunch every program had a story on Spector being toast. All Sestak had to do was run a photo of him mooning over The Queen of the North -- instant death.
 
Last edited:
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Kepler said:
Oh. Got it.

The GOP should be embracing guys like Rand Paul, though. They're on-message with what people are angriest about, and they're intellectually honest. Granted, Paul would cause problems on votes on the "three T's" (torture, terrorism and tyranny), but right now the GOP should be doing everything it can to take blue seats away. Worry about the coalition after you've got the numbers.

I would love to be RNC chair right now. There are so many ways you could build on public anger with incumbents to make huge gains, then take credit as the economy turns around due to the very policies you're running against! :p
Click to expand...

Rand Paul epitomizes what fascinates me about the election. True believers are great...but its a fine line to walk.

Lets say the economy stays weak. Then you want these people as your nominees. However, say it improves and there's less anger. In that case you might have been better off with the moderate.

The problem I see here is that it seems an infatuation with a true believer might be masking some serious flaws in their candidacy that may (or may not) come back to bite them. For example, Paul in a debate was talking about refusing just about all federal funding in Kentucky. That sounds swell in a GOP primary (in this particular instance he was talking about federal funds for drug treatment IIRC). However, does that fly as well in a general election? I don't know, but a credible opponent (read - not Martha Coakley :D ) is going to bring that up repeatedly in front of the people who are benefiting from said programs or agree with their necessity. And lets not forget where we're talking about here. A good deal of Kentuckians are reliant on the federal dole. :eek:

In Florida, Rubio is under some investigation also - I believe over misuse of expenses from when he was in the Florida House. Obviously the primary voters don't care, but in the general its a different ballgame.

Regarding Spector of course he's an opportunist. I can understand him switching parties because he clearly no longer belonged in the GOP. However, to do so after you get a primary challenge is a bit lame IMHO. I'm indifferent as to who wins that one however. Toomey is nuts, and he's another guy who's past statements are going to come back to haunt him. In this case, it may be better to have Sestak as the nominee.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
Lets say the economy stays weak. Then you want these people as your nominees. However, say it improves and there's less anger. In that case you might have been better off with the moderate.
Click to expand...

This is probably true, but I think it's more a concern for them in 2012 -- nothing dramatically good is going to happen with the economy between now and November. Even if it comes back gangbusters, employment is always lagging. Also, bad situations are inherently more energizing and they have a wider "spread" -- even if Jack gets his job back, if his wife Jill is still unemployed he'll still be angry -- in 75% of the possible outcomes among those two, they'll feel like times are still bad.

The incumbent is always on the business end of this; so if I am the opposition, I want to pick candidates who can plausibly vamp as "outsiders," even if it's a total snow job.

I think the most likely outcome is the GOP picks up a ton (40+) of House seats this fall even with borderline crazy / incompetent nominees, but then all those pick-ups are extremely vulnerable for 2012. If the economy is stillborn it's a horse race, while if it has recovered Obama has a Reagan-like re-election cakewalk and most if not all of those first-termers drown in the higher turnout wave. Remember also that the GOP as currently configured* is demographically doomed outside the confederacy; as time elapses it tweaks the electorate that much more in favor of the Dems while, given age and gender composition differences, the GOP is gouged relatively more by literal die-off.

(* Obviously this must and will change, as the GOP re-centers itself.)
 
Last edited:
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

More "establishment" GOP folks I've read seem to think Rand Paul would be a pretty good Senator in opposition, but if they take back the presidency, he could be a major thorn in their side.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
More "establishment" GOP folks I've read seem to think Rand Paul would be a pretty good Senator in opposition, but if they take back the presidency, he could be a major thorn in their side.
Click to expand...

Unless his dad is that president. :p
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Kepler said:
This is probably true, but I think it's more a concern for them in 2012 -- nothing dramatically good is going to happen with the economy between now and November. Even if it comes back gangbusters, employment is always lagging. Also, bad situations are inherently more energizing and they have a wider "spread" -- even if Jack gets his job back, if his wife Jill is still unemployed he'll still be angry -- in 75% of the possible outcomes among those two, they'll feel like times are still bad.

The incumbent is always on the business end of this; so if I am the opposition, I want to pick candidates who can plausibly vamp as "outsiders," even if it's a total snow job.

I think the most likely outcome is the GOP picks up a ton (40+) of House seats this fall even with borderline crazy / incompetent nominees, but then all those pick-ups are extremely vulnerable for 2012. If the economy is stillborn it's a horse race, while if it has recovered Obama has a Reagan-like re-election cakewalk and most if not all of those first-termers drown in the higher turnout wave. Remember also that the GOP as currently configured* is demographically doomed outside the confederacy; as time elapses it tweaks the electorate that much more in favor of the Dems while, given age and gender composition differences, the GOP is gouged relatively more by literal die-off.

(* Obviously this must and will change, as the GOP re-centers itself.)
Click to expand...

Agreed on just about all of this. For me its too early to put #'s on House seat changes, largely because its not yet known who the opposition nominates, nor what the economy will be like. The only thing I would say is if March job growth = job growth for each month until November....that's around 2M more jobs. Depending on what region those jobs are showing up in, that could account for a 20 seat swing or something significant.

But, your larger point I agree with completely. The GOP in its current state is demographically doomed. A probable weak nominee in 2012 coupled with an improved economy and a huge fundraising advantage is going to make any GOP seat gains in non Confederate states by and large a temporary occurance. Its important to remember that the pool of voters who came out for McCain is shrinking. Guys like Rove and Jeb Bush have repeatedly alluded to this (particularly over the AZ immigration flap), but if the GOP has success in the mid-terms, up to a 40+ gain of seats, I seriously doubt they're going to heed that warning from some of their own strategists.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top