D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

What are you basing your Cornell conclusion on? One loss won't drop them that far.

If they lose against MC again, Cornell would end up 0-2 against top 10 opponents for the season. So the 0-2 record and not enough tough competition, will hurt their ranking. There is no other ECAC team in the Top 10 at the moment.

Oddly enough, Brown who are at the other end of the ECAC spectrum have a much tougher NC schedule than Cornell with games against BU, BC, PC, NE and MC twice. To me that is kind of odd. You'd think it would be the other way around.

 

[mattj711]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

The Mazotta injury will really cast a potential shadow over this game. I saw her in a foot cast a few weeks ago. Not sure when she is supposed to return. Whithout Mazotta the edge will go to MC for sure. Cornell squeeked by union earlier this weekend, while MC was firing on all cylinders. The problem with this match is that it is the last top 10 HTH for both teams. If MC win, they will get into the Top 4, and Cornell will most likely lose their hold on a home turf game in the tournament. so this game does have big implications.

I think saying Cornell "squeaked by Union" is a bit of a stretch. While it doesn't appear to have been Cornell's best game (i just watched the second period through a rather crappy video feed), the outcome was never in doubt.

With all of that said, Cornell's schedule and its general lack of strength do make the Mercyhurst games significantly important. I'm hoping Cornell gets the W on Tuesday.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

If they lose against MC again, Cornell would end up 0-2 against top 10 opponents for the season. So the 0-2 record and not enough tough competition, will hurt their ranking. There is no other ECAC team in the Top 10 at the moment.

That all might be true if you are talking human polls. But for NCAA selection and seeding, there isn't anything magical about the top 10. In any case, Quinnipiac is currently in the top 10 in the Pairwise Ranking, and I'd bet that they remain a Team Under Consideration. Harvard, Princeton, RPI, and Dartmouth are all currently inside the TUC cutoff. So if Cornell lost to MC again, but won out in the ECAC regular season and all those teams kept their RPI >= .5000, then Cornell would enter the league tournament 10-2 in the TUC category. That's much better than the gloomy 0-2 picture that you paint. Also, they have an edge over MC in common opponents, because the Lakers have lost to both SLU and Niagara. Their RPI is better than that of the Lakers, so they'd win the comparison over MC even if the Big Red lose both H2H games. Maybe Cornell would eventually lose the comparison with BU, but I think they are in good shape against anyone other than Wisconsin or the possibly the Terriers, assuming they only lose to Mercyhurst and maybe one more. I don't see them losing home ice unless their play drops dramatically.

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

It takes a while, but I'm starting to gain more of a natural feel for the math and logic of the "Pairwise" system. ARM may be right with the case he has made above, but I'll take it one step further....the definition of TUC "Teams Under Consideration" per Pairwise seems to include a lot of teams who are seemingly NOT REALLY under consideration. This season, and perhaps different from many recent seasons, the ECAC just doesn't seem as strong. At the end of the day, this might just be what is basically separating OnMAA's "human" view vs. ARM's Pairwise analysis. "If" Cornell should lose, my guess is they don't drop lower than 4, but they would be on rocky ground in playing out their league schedule if they'd like to preserve a first round home game.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

I think saying Cornell "squeaked by Union" is a bit of a stretch. While it doesn't appear to have been Cornell's best game (i just watched the second period through a rather crappy video feed), the outcome was never in doubt.

With all of that said, Cornell's schedule and its general lack of strength do make the Mercyhurst games significantly important. I'm hoping Cornell gets the W on Tuesday.

Maybe "squeaked" was the wrong word. Someone else posted that they won ugly. Either way, Cornell struggled to get by Union, while MC was firing on all cylinders. I will be pulling for Cornell tomorrow night. My heart wants Cornell to win this one, but right now my brain sais MC will win.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

It takes a while, but I'm starting to gain more of a natural feel for the math and logic of the "Pairwise" system. ARM may be right with the case he has made above, but I'll take it one step further....the definition of TUC "Teams Under Consideration" per Pairwise seems to include a lot of teams who are seemingly NOT REALLY under consideration. This season, and perhaps different from many recent seasons, the ECAC just doesn't seem as strong. At the end of the day, this might just be what is basically separating OnMAA's "human" view vs. ARM's Pairwise analysis. "If" Cornell should lose, my guess is they don't drop lower than 4, but they would be on rocky ground in playing out their league schedule if they'd like to preserve a first round home game.

Humanly impossible for me to wrap my brain around any TUCs and Pairs. Heck IceisNice knows full well I dunno my left from my right , so could end up with two left pairs on the right. .

My views were based on a simplistic approach of results against top opponents.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Humanly impossible for me to wrap my brain around any TUCs and Pairs. ... My views were based on a simplistic approach of results against top opponents.

And maybe at some point the selection committee looks at factors like that when trying to weight teams who come out very, very close in the criteria. But at the moment, Cornell is 2nd and MC is 5th, so I doubt they'd spend as much time sifting through other ways of analyzing them. If the entire mess seems too complicated, just use the RPI, and that will rank the teams in the same order as the PWR more often than not. It gets more complicated on the men's side with more teams, but the women's field offers up far fewer situations where Team A wins the comparison over B, B wins the comparison over C, yet C wins the pair over A. And when those do occur and teams wind up tied, they use the RPI to break the tie again.

 

[David De Remer]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

It seems probable to me that all four conference leaders will host quarterfinals, with the non-WCHA champions hosting the three WCHA runners-up, while Wisconsin will host BC or an autobid upstart from ECAC or Hockey East.

The NCAA criteria really don't do a whole lot to adjust for strength of schedule for the best teams, and the "record vs. teams under consideration" uses a relatively low cutoff for teams under consideration. So if the teams dominating their conferences now continue to dominate, they will host.

The only scenario for which two Mercyhurst wins over Cornell looms large for hosting is if an additional WCHA team breaks into the top three, the last spot comes down to Mercyhurst vs. Cornell, and those two head-to-head wins are the difference for Mercyhurst. But I just don't see UMD, Minnesota, or North Dakota differentiate themselves enough from each other for that to happen.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Based on the Gophers success this weekend I have to agree with DDR, not really a chance for any of the WCHA teams to jump into the top 4 unless the Badgers suddenly implode.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Based on the Gophers success this weekend I have to agree with DDR, not really a chance for any of the WCHA teams to jump into the top 4 unless the Badgers suddenly implode.

Minnesota is currently in the top four; the problem will be in trying to stay there, given they have to go to Madison and the leaders from the other conferences don't figure to do much losing.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

The NCAA criteria really don't do a whole lot to adjust for strength of schedule for the best teams, and the "record vs. teams under consideration" uses a relatively low cutoff for teams under consideration. So if the teams dominating their conferences now continue to dominate, they will host.

Since yesterday, the USCHO PWR table has changed, and the verbage on that page now includes the following:

The PWR compares only the top 12 teams in order of RPI (Teams Under Consideration or TUC per the NCAA Women's Division I ice hockey championship manual), judging them by these criteria: record against common opponents, record against teams under consideration, head to head competition, and the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

That changes the TUC for teams that had some wins/losses against those with RPIs slightly above .5000.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Since yesterday, the USCHO PWR table has changed, and the verbage on that page now includes the following:That changes the TUC for teams that had some wins/losses against those with RPIs slightly above .5000.

ARM....Thanks for those tidbits.....Glad that I started this poll. Learning a lot about factors used rankings as ar result of various comments from posters such as you and DDR. (30 years ago DDR used to be a bad acronym, now it stands for USCHO W-God )

 

[BIG RED]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Well I was one of two who picked the Badgers in Nov. I figured with their talent and depth and MJ comming back they would play much better then last year. I guess I'll know how smart .....or stupid my pick was/is in a couple months.

 

[papulaisle]

D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Lots to play. I voted Cornell both polls.

Is at Erie (Mercyhurst)-almost part of the west, certainly midwest, say; but can't be thought of as east IMHO.

(Somehow, Erie, that is, there out in far PA...)

Were this being played in New England - Durham, Hanover, New Haven, Hamden, Bostonnais teams, I would like The Big Red's chances (more).

Maybe too soon to wrest title away from western teams. Sure would like to...and, of course, it would be, as Pooh-Bah has said, the official first time championship won by an eastern women's team.

Up to you Cornell. Yes, yes! Can you do it there on Lake Cayuga-"Far above Cayuga's waters..."?

For instance, can you get your fans (out), travel the few miles to Erie?

Oh, Cornell, you tell ME/US what it will take for your team...to TAKE the crown?

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Lots to play. I voted Cornell both polls.

Is at Erie (Mercyhurst)-almost part of the west, certainly midwest, say; but can't be thought of as east IMHO.

(Somehow, Erie, that is, there out in far PA...)

Were this being played in New England - Durham, Hanover, New Haven, Hamden, Bostonnais teams, I would like The Big Red's chances (more).

Maybe too soon to wrest title away from western teams. Sure would like to...and, of course, it would be, as Pooh-Bah has said, the official first time championship won by an eastern women's team.

Up to you Cornell. Yes, yes! Can you do it there on Lake Cayuga-"Far above Cayuga's waters..."?

For instance, can you get your fans (out), travel the few miles to Erie?

Oh, Cornell, you tell ME/US what it will take for your team...to TAKE the crown?

Cornell is the most Western based team in the ECAC, and is closer to them to travel to Erie, than many of thier ECAC away games. Besides, slews of Cornellians are from Ontario, and it is easy to get from the GTA to Erie. I'll certainly be pulling for Cornell in the NCAA tournament if they get there. Still lots of hockey to be played before we get there.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

We had 58 voters for the first poll in October. 41 voters sofar in 12 days. This poll will close at the end of the month. Get yer votes in.

The Big Red machines garnering most of the votes. Wisco at 48% 20/41, Cornell at 17% 7/41, everyone else below 10%.
Quite the shift since October, Cornell had 14 votes in the fall edition, Wisco only 2.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

The Big Red machines garnering most of the votes. Wisco at 48% 20/41, Cornell at 17% 7/41, everyone else below 10%.
Quite the shift since October, Cornell had 14 votes in the fall edition, Wisco only 2.

Cornell may well be the best team right now. Defensively, they certainly handled Mercyhurst well, while the Badgers had a bit of a hiccup late in Game 2 with UMD last weekend. The question in my mind is will the Big Red get enough competition in conference over the next several weeks to have them peaking for the NCAAs, or will the WCHA provide Wisconsin with a better prep? And of course, there is the real possibility that one of those < 10% blocks of voters knows something that the majority does not.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

And of course, there is the real possibility that one of those < 10% blocks of voters knows something that the majority does not.

Yup..last year around this time all the ECAC talk was about Clarkson and Harvard and how deep they would go in the tournament, while Cornell was considered to be good but at least a year away to make any serious in roads...so what happened... Harvard lost their main tender, lost in the ECAC semis to Cornell and missed the tourney. Clarkson lost a 7 point ECAC lead late in the season and ended up losing the ECAC championship game on the road. The Big Red went toe to toe with UMD for six periods before falling in the NCAA championship game.

So this begs the question, who is the team best equipped to pull off a Big Red stunt this year ?.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

Yup..last year around this time all the ECAC talk was about Clarkson and Harvard and how deep they would go in the tournament, while Cornell was considered to be good but at least a year away to make any serious in roads...so what happened... Harvard lost their main tender, lost in the ECAC semis to Cornell and missed the tourney. Clarkson lost a 7 point ECAC lead late in the season and ended up losing the ECAC championship game on the road. The Big Red went toe to toe with UMD for six periods before falling in the NCAA championship game.
So this begs the question, who is the team best equipped to pull off a Big Red stunt this year ?.

No.... that's not at all what happened last year with Cornell relative to Harvard and Clarkson. Last year when ARM or I asked, "is there a .500ish team with potential to go deep in NCAAs like Brown in 2002, Harvard in 2005, or UMD in 2007?" I think Cornell was by far the most popular answer.

Everyone knew Cornell was good because they beat Harvard with Kessler in the first half of the season. Many posters here recognized that Cornell was underrated because they had a lot of poorly timed nonconference games. When Kessler went out, everyone was pretty sure Clarkson and Cornell were the best two teams in the ECAC. Harvard still did just enough to secure home ice in NCAAs though (they did not miss the tournament). Cornell ended Harvard's season in the NCAA quarterfinals, not the ECAC semifinals. When this happened, it wasn't an upset.

Cornell beating Mercyhurst was an upset, but not terribly surprising to most posters here given how much tougher the ECAC was than the CHA, and realizing that the Mercyhurst sweep of Cornell was months ago. Cornell taking UMD to triple overtime was a bigger surprise.

To the extent people thought Cornell was a year away from going deep into the tourney, it was because their nonconference woes were likely going to lead them to have a tough unfavorable road home quarterfinal matchup, but they managed to do just well enough, and Clarkson collapse enough, so that Cornell drew Harvard instead of the other top 3 teams. But I don't feel like no one saw that Cornell was really good at this time last year.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D1 Forum Poll: Who wins the NCAA crown: Round 2 - Public

No.... that's not at all what happened last year with Cornell relative to Harvard and Clarkson. Last year when ARM or I asked, "is there a .500ish team with potential to go deep in NCAAs like Brown in 2002, Harvard in 2005, or UMD in 2007?" I think Cornell was by far the most popular answer.

Everyone knew Cornell was good because they beat Harvard with Kessler in the first half of the season. Many posters here recognized that Cornell was underrated because they had a lot of poorly timed nonconference games. When Kessler went out, everyone was pretty sure Clarkson and Cornell were the best two teams in the ECAC. Harvard still did just enough to secure home ice in NCAAs though (they did not miss the tournament). Cornell ended Harvard's season in the NCAA quarterfinals, not the ECAC semifinals. When this happened, it wasn't an upset.

You are correct that most people knew that Cornell was one of the near 500 teams capable of a run last year. IIRC Quinnipiac was also considered as a dark horse ~500 team with a shot at making a run. However, most in the ECAC were looking at Harvard and Clarkson as the teams to beat for most of the year last year, until Harvard lost Kessler and Clarkson tailed off at the end of the year. Saying Cornell is the 500 team with the best chance to go on a run is not the same as saying Cornell is one of the teams with a good shot at the final four.