Re: COVID-19 - Part 2
Glad to see the new Part 2 thread has sprung back to life overnight.
What’s going to happen? Are people going to go to restaurants? Bars? Sporting events? Are we going to reopen schools? Start traveling again?
Most importantly, people who are not fitting the high risk profile should get back to work - whatever their work happens to be. I'm guessing here, but I suspect re-opening of restaurants for dine-in service will probably be put off a little bit longer, as will sporting events (longer). I'm not sure I ever agreed it made sense to close schools, but since most have committed to remote learning through the end of the current school year, the physical schools will probably continue to be closed. But the teachers are working now anyway. The financial hit there really doesn't exist, or at least exists on a much smaller scale. In fact, the difference in the impacts between the public sector and private sector (especially small business) is huge. We were discussing that on the last thread when it finally maxed out. It's something that is very real, and probably explains a lot of the disconnect between the "just stay home" crowd, and the "back to work" crowd. Criticizing those who want to AND can work doesn't help.
From my perspective, the key is to allow those who can work (without endangering themselves or the general public) to either continue to work, or to get back to work. "One size fits all" doesn't always make sense (more on that later) ...
The great news here is that this is a downturn that’s self inflicted by halting all discretionary spending. With the exception of those who need treatment and those who are out of work due to this, that discretionary spending hold off means people will spend it later when things get back to normal. Those people (a good majority) will help bounce things back fairly quickly.
The part of this that gets blithely overlooked is that sure, for many companies, when the economy goes "live" again, many jobs should still be there. But for small businesses - Main Street America businesses, some would say - they are within weeks if not days of losing their jobs, their careers, their businesses. Many of those will not magically resuscitate when some DC functionary decides the coast is clear. And some as-yet-undefined government handout program doesn't give them their job/career/business back - it just gives them short-term compensation. Arbitrarily shutting it down, for a few weeks? We're trying that now. Going much beyond early April, "just because" … how does that make any sense??
For everyone else we can subsidize treatment, expand unemployment insurance and provide payroll tax cuts to cover bills, help the less fortunate and lend aid to struggling business (respectively).
Why we should voluntarily do the <exact opposite> of what we should be doing to keep this disease at bay? Without mass testing, we have zero tools to ensure that our isolation measures are targeted <only> to those with the disease, as this isn’t like Ebola and many people can carry it without realizing it’s anything serious.
As noted above … unemployment insurance is a short-term fix, and does not undo damage inflicted upon one's job, career or business. Let's say you are a young and healthy person, mid 20's, no predisposition to any of the risk factors, no symptoms, and you are a key player in a health & fitness-related small business. You've spent your entire working life to date (let's say 5 years) building a successful statewide business … and then this suddenly comes up. Your company's revenue dries up because of being ordered to shut down indefinitely, that ends incoming cash flow, and there's a six-figure shortfall in a relatively short time, which can then potentially be exacerbated over the course of several more weeks (months even?). Unemployment may help out for a short stretch … but what happens then if the business is no longer there when someone like you decides it's OK to re-open?
We have tools to fight economic downturns. We have no reason to throw away the only tools we have against this disease.
There are many potential tools to be explored. The ones we're using now are to flatten the curve, not to cure the disease. Can someone explain to me logically why the same approach should be taken in New Hampshire than in New York City? Or Upstate New York than in NYC and its surrounding areas (including the New Rochelle "hotspot")? Washington State than Wyoming?
If the hydroxy-chlorquine (sp?) trials continue to show positive results, doesn't that substitute for "flattening the curve" until a vaccine is developed in a year's time?
The point that continues to be missed is that economic downturns and uncertainty comes with its own cost in lost and ruined lives, but those are just harder numbers to count. How many recovering substance abusers fall back into depression, and/or then back into prior behaviors? Depression can often lead to suicide. How is that lost (or irreparably damaged) life any less valuable than someone who succumbs to COVID-19?
On the prior COVID-19 thread in this forum, at least a week ago, some of us began to discuss how there would likely come a point where the "cure" has a more adverse impact than the disease itself. A week or so later, and the national discussion has started to come around to this point. And it's absolutely a legitimate discussion - not some rash or uncaring approach, for many of the reasons outlined in this post.
For the short term issues, I'm hoping Congress can get their collective acts together and get something passed today. There have been bad actors - both sides, Burr and Feinstein to name the most prominent two - who we've ripped in the prior thread, and they deserve it. Tucker Carlson was must-see TV last night (and that hasn't often been the case lately), but after savaging Burr and Feinstein, and grilling Loeffler at length at the end of last week, he now takes on the sheer stupidity (both sides) of the partisan politics being advanced on the short-term bailout with this excerpt from last night's show. I've put this at the end of my post, so if you want to spend 5 minutes on it, you should do so. And if you want to skip it, feel free to do so ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Un-DdiDJFns
