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Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

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Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

jerphisch said:
CO had something weird with the testing (cleared backlog?), had been going ~1,500/day and today spiked over 5k. The deaths they said they would be adding ~130 previously not included, but then I'd expect the total over 130 so not sure if that's it or not.
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Yup, CDPHE's numbers are laggy as heck.

They're starting to show current total hospitalized, and that's been pretty flat in the mid-800s for a couple weeks now. We're doing pretty well all things considered - most of the ski resort counties where this started for us are past the worst of it and have plans in place and look good for slowly re-opening. Denver not so much, just because of its size and testing capability needed.
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Glendora, CA. Population 52002*




* US Census Bureau 2018 estimate
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

When I was a kid, I recall seeing a map of "The Cholera Road" in the 1850s USA, all the way out to Salt Lake City and Oregon (due to immigration).
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Today's numbers are not exactly inspiring the feeling that we are slowing things down. At this rate we will pass a million cases Monday and 60k deaths by Wednesday.
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

rufus said:
Yeah. Deaths down a bit today, but new cases up over 30,000.
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Some of that (CO) is old data hitting the system. Question is how much.

CO actually created 2 zombies yesterday according to CDPHE.
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

rufus said:
Yeah. Deaths down a bit today, but new cases up over 30,000.
Click to expand...

Actually deaths are up. According to worldometer it is 2065 for today and was 1957 yesterday.

But hey...OPEN BACK UP!!
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Twitch Boy said:
Some of that (CO) is old data hitting the system. Question is how much.

CO actually created 2 zombies yesterday according to CDPHE.
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This is the big one, IMO. Let's say you had/have it 10 days ago, but just got tested. Is it really a "new" case? Multiply that out. Not trying to start any theories here, this needs to rely on pure data.

I don't know the parameters they are using to classify "new" cases, etc. I'm thinking, if somehow EVERYONE miraculously got tested tomorrow, how different the numbers would be.
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Handyman said:
Actually deaths are up. According to worldometer it is 2065 for today and was 1957 yesterday.

But hey...OPEN BACK UP!!
Click to expand...

yeah, but both those are a bit lower than what we've been seeing the last week or two.
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

The Rube said:
This is the big one, IMO. Let's say you had/have it 10 days ago, but just got tested. Is it really a "new" case? Multiply that out. Not trying to start any theories here, this needs to rely on pure data.

I don't know the parameters they are using to classify "new" cases, etc. I'm thinking, if somehow EVERYONE miraculously got tested tomorrow, how different the numbers would be.
Click to expand...

I do worry that if it takes two weeks to find and process all the numbers, the numbers we're showing now are wrong as well and we can't say we're at a peak.

Numbers to watch are new/cumulative hospitalizations (which CDPHE is actually now showing.) Those are up to date and (shouldn't) mysteriously add 100 people two weeks later. They show us pretty level in the mid-800s for total hospitalized - we've at least contained things and not overrun the hospitals.

Hospitals are also taking a lot of PUIs, or "yeah, we're pretty sure you got it, we're pretty sure you're gonna be okay, but let's keep you here until we know for sure." That wouldn't happen if the hospitals were getting creamed - they'd be sending them home and only be taking the worst cases

Zero hospitals anticipating an ICU bed shortage in the coming week, and numbers of hospitals anticipating staff and PPE shortages are down as well.

https://covid19.colorado.gov/hospital-data
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Anthony Fauci getting his wish: Brad Pitt playing him in an ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/nbcsnl?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nbcsnl</a>⁩ cold open <a href="https://t.co/13P5DLlvaC">pic.twitter.com/13P5DLlvaC</a></p>— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1254251694948573191?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Completely unrelated to people getting sick, but I'm getting tired of seeing posts, videos, etc of "Can Industry X survive???"

Of course it can. When the economy opens back up, the demand for everything that is closed down will be there- in some cases, the pent up demand will be REALLY high, I expect.

And, for sure, many industries will likely be smaller because of fear (like my cruise industry). But there will be demand.

The REAL question is if current specific organizations will survive or not.

Flying will be back in some form, food service will be back, shops will be back, hair cutting will be back, vacations (resorts, cruises, hotels, rentals) will be back.

I can't see any industry where a significant demand will totally dry up after the pandemic is over. And I honestly think some will have a pretty big rebound, as people are so darned sick of being stuck at home with nowhere to go.

I'm just tired of seeing people put headlines up to make people think that this is the end. (and that also goes for mass extinction- this is a HORRIBLE situation, and many people are dying, but there are zero indicators that this is any worse than previous pandemics that didn't wipe out the population- there are far more people who get infected and not even get sick than actually do get sick, let alone die).

This isn't the end. It's just REALLY REALLY tough. Sucks really bad. Horrible situation. But not the end.
 
Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

alfablue said:
Completely unrelated to people getting sick, but I'm getting tired of seeing posts, videos, etc of "Can Industry X survive???"

Of course it can.
Click to expand...

Betteridge's Law
 
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