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Covfefe-19 The 11th Part: Suck It Up And Die Grandpa I Need A Manicure!!

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WisconsinWildcard said:
I will not reply directly to the bad faith actor who linked a laughably superficial (or dishonest) interpretation of specificity and sensitivity. For those interested, when using a Bayesian approach to address a clinical question, you estimate a pretest probability of disease, then interpret the test you are using through positive and/or negative predictive value in the form of a likelihood ratio, and this will result in your post-test probability. See the below graphic for a simplified way to view this.

https://media.springernature.com/ful...ML.jpg?as=webp

This is a good article to help those who are not familiar with different testing types and how to interpret them. There is a simple graph in here I suggest you all look at as it is well done.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2765837

For the most part, RT-PCRs are designed to be high specific, so the risk of false positive is low. I found it hilarious that the author of the interpretation complained about testing for fragments of the virus. That is literally what RT-PCR is designed to do. Maybe the Emeritus professor needs to go back to school in the 21st century so he can understand the basics of molecular biology. A lot has changed since he went to medical school in, if I read correctly, the 1970s. It is true when they say medicine advances with one physician retirement (or death in the darker version) at a time. The number quoted of 70% specificity for the Covid-19 is inaccurate, and although there are variations of tests out there, RT-PCR are much more specific than that.

We also use PCR testing for most of our viral testing when looking for active disease. We do this well and I think we have enough information about Covid-19 at this time to do a good job interpreting this. Antibody testing is a whole different animal and I think the jury is still out on how to interpret that.
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He didn’t complain about testing for virus fragments he explained some of the issues that creates

And he was spot on in regards to widespread testing providing no value at this point when a virus is already widely circulated.

The amount of bad data and inputs is astronomical and when it’s all said and done will be what is remembered about Covid19.

Also very accurate “It should be obvious from the data above that all the testing we have done and continue to do has likely confused more than enlightened.“

Even more so when you consider that there is almost no context the way things are being reported and the fact that we have never tested a virus like what is being done currently. And no other country is testing Covid19 like the US is for obvious reasons.
 
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When do we outlaw smoking?

Exposure to secondhand smoke causes an estimated 41,000 deaths each year among adults in the United States: Secondhand smoke causes 7,333 annual deaths from lung cancer.
 
800 deaths reported on a weekend day, when death reports on weekends have been so much lower since forever.
 
First Time said:
Both of them and you should shut up.
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Absolutely not. People are over this nonsense and are moving on and continuing life which never should have been shut down like this in the first place. This is a non issue across the majority of the Country. And the few hot spots will get thru it.

You are free to Shut Yourself Up and shut down your world if you choose.
 
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You've had so much Kool-aid you're a damn distributor.
The major difference here...it is impossible to teach socially distant if schools are open.
Your little numbers could very easily change if things are opened and while it may prove to be true that kids can't spread it...they can get it and so can teachers.
and as you have been reminded several times...death is not the only consideration.
This disease is real and should not be downplayed...but it's all you know how to do.
Kids should not be exposed to a disease that could have lasting physical effects that we have no clue about when there is a way to do it online.
But you don't care about them and do not even bother to say otherwise.
 
First Time said:
You've had so much Kool-aid you're a **** distributor.
The major difference here...it is impossible to teach socially distant if schools are open.
Your little numbers could very easily change if things are opened and while it may prove to be true that kids can't spread it...they can get it and so can teachers.
and as you have been reminded several times...death is not the only consideration.
This disease is real and should not be downplayed...but it's all you know how to do.
Kids should not be exposed to a disease that could have lasting physical effects that we have no clue about when there is a way to do it online.
But you don't care about them and do not even bother to say otherwise.
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The Koolaid? Listen to yourself. You sound like you got your information from Rachel Maddow like the ScoobyScrew guy.

Like I said if you want to shut down your world by all means go for it.

The vast majority of people are moving on from this non sense. Get over it.
 
Jeb2020 said:
The Koolaid? Listen to yourself. You sound like you got your information from Rachel Maddow like the ScoobyScrew guy.

Like I said if you want to shut down your world by all means go for it.

The vast majority of people are moving on from this non sense. Get over it.
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It isn't about me you moron. I was off work for 3 weeks and then went back and I've worked every day since. But I'm taking precautions and I'm socially distant because it's the right thing to do. Even with an autoimmune disease I've felt fine but again it's not about me. I care about those around me.
The vast majority of people think this was blown from the beginning by Trump's administration so no they are not over it and moving on. Just the vast majority of delusional humps that occupy your world.
You see how many stores are now requiring masks? This isn't near over and those that want to move on do so at their peril. I'd just as soon not expose kids to that because of dumbass adults like you.
Again...you don't want schools open because you care about kids...you want it cause your dear leader does.
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First Time said:
It isn't about me you moron. I was off work for 3 weeks and then went back and I've worked every day since. But I'm taking precautions and I'm socially distant because it's the right thing to do. Even with an autoimmune disease I've felt fine but again it's not about me. I care about those around me.
The vast majority of people think this was blown from the beginning by Trump's administration so no they are not over it and moving on. Just the vast majority of delusional humps that occupy your world.
You see how many stores are now requiring masks? This isn't near over and those that want to move on do so at their peril. I'd just as soon not expose kids to that because of dumbass adults like you.
Again...you don't want schools open because you care about kids...you want it cause your dear leader does.
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You guys and your political dogma have a screw lose or two. New York is a success Florida is a cesspool. Just nuts. No one here can call a shot without tying it to their political bs.

Might come as a surprise to you but there are many out there that don’t rely on politicians to run their lives. And they keep moving forward regardless of a goofball like Trump or a Vegetable like Biden is in the seat.

But you keep letting them have complete control over your every step.

If parents don’t want to send their kids then don’t. The rest are moving on.

Your data and facts are complete garbage around the school situation, in fact do you even have any that you are going of off? You let your fear and emotion drive and it results in disaster.

And can you even come close to articulating with basic logic why parts of the country that are doing just fine would shut down schools?
 
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Jeb2020 said:
You guys and your political dogma have a screw lose or two. New York is a success Florida is a cesspool. Just nuts. No one here can call a shot without tying it to their political bs.

Might come as a surprise to you but there are many out there that don’t rely on politicians to run their lives. And they keep moving forward regardless of a goofball like Trump or a Vegetable like Biden is in the seat.

But you keep letting them have complete control over your every step.

If parents don’t want to send their kids then don’t. The rest are moving on.

Your data and facts are complete garbage around the school situation, in fact do you even have any that you are going of off? You let your fear and emotion drive and it results in disaster.

And can you even come close to articulating with basic logic why parts of the country that are doing just fine would shut down schools?
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It's called caution you putz. Look at the "bubbles" being used for sports right now. They are still getting it and in some places in large numbers.
Again...answer how teaching can be done socially distant while in a school classroom? You already claim masks don't work so that's out. So go ahead...tell me how you can make this safe.
As for the politics... people may say they don't run their lives by politicians but that's garbage. Their decisions do run our lives in one way or another.
And parts of the country seem to "do just fine" until they open up.
​​​​​​As I said..."move on" at your own peril...but to say to teachers that they have to come back or quit? No.
 
First Time said:
I'm sure all these babies will be "perfectly fine"

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/18/...rus-trnd/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
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^^Team Hysteria

“Context for the “85 infants have tested positive!!!” panic stories: * 85 is the total number <1 to test pos since March * They were primarily found through contact-tracing family members. * There is no surge in infant positives. * None of them died.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/AJKayWriter/status/1284707431084199938
 
New York was, indeed, horrible. But then they took the very hard decisions to shelter in place, and when that wasn't given the needed results, required masks. And all of a sudden, the cases went down, the hospitals got relief, and deaths have declined. The playbook response was pretty clear to the point that other smart states have tried it and it has worked.

Florida is a cesspool because they know exactly what to do. And instead of that, they somehow have listened to people who have no knowledge of science, and that this is some kind of political attack... and now cases have rocketed, to New York levels, deaths are going up, hospitals are struggling, etc- JUST LIKE NEW YORK WAS.

The easy button from here is to run the known playbook to stop it. Do exactly what Cuomo did. But that's not even close to happening- we have places who want to open up MORE- and industries who need people claiming that all is well.

Just saw on ESPN that MLB is now dealing with the total lack of national response that the country of Canada is not allowing teams to travel in and out of Canada. If we had actually followed the playbook, including actually reaching the metrics to open back up- this would all be over now, and we would be opening borders in a controlled manner.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

And now we face a long and extended close out from the rest of the world, and many people not willing to go out and risk their lives. Yay. Even better- we are trying to force kids to go back to school- because why? Even if kids are not as likely to die or suffer, they still face that risk. How many children are we willing to sacrifice to open schools?

And we still have a political argument over science and death.

BTW, thanks to the r's for being clear about death- we know to not take your claims over family values and what not seriously. Total BS. This administration has done a great job exposing that over it's short time. Covid and the response just is another example of that- money is the only thing that matters.
 
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