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Covfefe-19 The 11th Part: Suck It Up And Die Grandpa I Need A Manicure!!

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Handyman said:
If being wrong once is enough to prove an entire process wrong why the **** is Jeb allowed to still do anything since he has proven over time to be wrong about pretty much everything? (see also: the GOP) Must be all those stats he deals with while sitting at home wishing his other monikers werent banned and blocked.

Difference between smart people and the Jebs of the world...we admit when we make a mistake. They just pretend it never happened then pile on more mistakes because they are so ****ing stupid they cant see straight.

But hey...COVID is under control. The people dying arent dying.
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Nah, they just died back in April. That means their deaths don't count.
 
Great night out in the city. Little local bar turned their parking lot into out door seating and had live music. I’m guessing 200-250 people. I didn’t see one mask, not even a mask as a chin strap. It was refreshing.

Families, kids, you name it. Just a normal night. People breathing fresh Summer air.

no one was acting like a glorified child.

The kicker, it was Hilary Land 2016.

The other kicker, everyone is going to be just fine.
 
Wayuphere said:
Just talked with a relative, RN, at a major Atlanta hospital. She said that anyone who doesn’t believe the halls are filled with Trumpvirus patients might want to check their mental status. She jokingly said that everyone they are seeing or shipping elsewhere due to no beds must be severely underpaid democratic actors who are all in on the the hoax...........
OMG some are dense.......
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^^Sounds made up. Good story though. #TeamHysteria

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1284338552751497216/photo/1
 
See that Florida now has 2 days that are really close to 100.... I'm avoiding the news, but I assume that when Desantis finally does something useful, it will be posted here. Otherwise, I need to send more notes to the cruise company that we sail with- to get them to convince Florida to do *something*- otherwise it's going to be a very long time until we even consider going to Florida.

You know what's going to suck, thanks to the "more or less" reporting- when Florida only has 6000 cases per day, it will be declared a victory, but when Michigan goes from 200 to 400, we will be called the next hot spot. Even though Florida now has enough cases in one week to surpass all of Michigan.

Oh, well. Michigan Tourism will get our money.
 
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alfablue said:
You know what's going to suck, thanks to the "more or less" reporting- when Florida only has 6000 cases per day, it will be declared a victory, but when Michigan goes from 200 to 400, we will be called the next hot spot. Even though Florida now has enough cases in one week to surpass all of Michigan.

Oh, well. Michigan Tourism will get our money.
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Reminds me of New York and how they are spouting off as some sort of success story now.
 
Les and Bass, I know your ears have been to the ground in researching this virus more than most around here. Is there some promise in this study regarding school children?
https://www.facebook.com/tracy.hoeg/...19475853940261

I wanted to give an update on the research regarding COVID in children.


I should back up briefly and state that I am a physician with a PhD in Epidemiology who became very interested in this topic when a colleague and friend of mine, Jennifer Kasten, MD MSc, wrote a systematic review of COVID epidemiology in children (https://www.facebook.com/jenniferkastenmd/posts/128898328763114) and found kids 12 and under *might be viral "dead ends", meaning they can get COVID but can't transmit to anyone else. This really captured my interest because this would make COVID very different from most respiratory viruses we know. Then in a physician's group dedicated to school opening, a physician researcher published a document for the group in which said she could identify 0 (zero) cases of certain transmission from children under 12 in the scientific literature and since that time Dr. Rutherford, UCSF Epidemiologist, has also been public about elementary-aged children being a "one way street" for infection - they get it but don't appear to transmit it, much, if at all. (UCSF Grand Rounds lectures are now available on YouTube for those interested in hearing him).


Last month, I did my own summary of the data (https://www.facebook.com/tracy.hoeg/posts/10219217323357158) and found evidence of the following:


*Very limited transmission if any from children ages 12 and under to either other children or adults
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What have we learned in the last month?


1. We now have a generally accepted mechanism for younger children getting milder disease and transmitting significantly less than adults, which is paucity of ACE2 receptors in the respiratory tract compared with adults (this is the receptor SARS COV2 uses to enter the cells of the body). This could explain why children get COVID less, have milder disease (lower viral load) and are less contagious (if contagious at all). Yet another way COVID is unlike typical influenza! https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766524
(Figure 2)
2. Consistent with this was the study showing lower viral load (lower amount of the virus) in children up to age 18. (Figure 1). The original non-peer reviewed print of this article from Drosten et al was reanalyzed as per UCSF Grand Rounds and does indeed show significantly lower viral load in children as seen in image 1.


3. This is great news for teachers and children, because not only are children significantly less likely to transmit COVID, but IF they do, the dose of the "inoculum" will be expected to be lower and there is mounting evidence (though inconclusive at this point) that the lower the dose of the virus you get, the less severe your disease will be if you even get symptoms at all (https://www.reliasmedia.com/blogs/2-hicprevent/post/146456-Public-Masking-Could-Save-Lives). This may be why Denmark and Norway were able to reopen elementary schools without any mask wearing in children (or adults for that matter!). Now if there IS mask wearing in the US by either children, adults or both, that would make both transmission even less likely and possibly the severity of the disease will be less if it does occur (interesting non peer-reviewed study showing inverse correlation between mask-wearing and mortality rate: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137745v2)
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--What are the bottom lines?


1. Kids 13-14 and below (likely around puberty) do not appear to be driving the spread of COVID. They rarely (one can never say never) transmit the disease. Tracing the source case with 100% certainty can be very challenging, but the data overall indicate pediatric transmission to be quite rare compared with adults.


2. Kids up to 18 years of age tend to get mild disease if any symptoms and death in this age group is less likely than getting hit by lightning.


3. In school settings, adults can and will give to adults and kids, so teachers need to be socially distancing while at work. Adults also should be wearing masks and getting tested and staying home if they have symptoms.


4. Data and guidelines from Holland suggest distancing among children <19 may not be necessary. And reopening of schools in Scandinavia has been successful even without children wearing masks. It should be pointed out that these countries opened schools as the FIRST step of reopening their economy.
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There is a lot there to digest, but it seems that with careful study over the past couple months, coupled with the evolving studies from all sources, that school openings, if DONE SAFELY, will be okay? I know our self declared math genius will trumpet that he knew this all along, but it appears that children can go about their day as usual (or with minor changes), but the adults will still need to be careful in distancing from each other, keeping hands/face clean, masks, and other ways to limit their spread of the virus.

Adults still seem to be the problem though. Especially those who continue to engage in "It won't get me!" behavior.

*edit* Edited to add, that as it pointed out, children CAN still be carriers, so parents could still catch Coronavirus from their own child, despite their best efforts.
 
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^^ Thanks for sharing.

There are a number of studies like this one from countries that have opened schools or never even closed them.

And they conclude a lot of the same info.
 
Also, with the study I posted said, and the information from FTLT, and the shortness of time that this virus has been found and studied, we have no long term information on what health issues can persist years down the road from this disease. This could be like polio and cause a lifetime of issues with someone who becomes sick.

I just wish everyone was a little more safer with their practices, wear the d*mn mask, and get through this with minimal sickness.
 
aparch said:
Also, with the study I posted said, and the information from FTLT, and the shortness of time that this virus has been found and studied, we have no long term information on what health issues can persist years down the road from this disease. This could be like polio and cause a lifetime of issues with someone who becomes sick.

I just wish everyone was a little more safer with their practices, wear the d*mn mask, and get through this with minimal sickness.
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That is my bigger concern. It's not just deaths... it's possible long term effects that we have no clue about yet because there just hasn't been enough time passed for it to be known. That's why I wear a mask. I'd like to breathe into my 70s+
 
Solid article that gets into the insanity of mass testing the population. And why it does nothing to help fight the virus.

https://mises.org/wire/false-positive-panic-over-covid-19

“To begin with, the tests currently in use do not test for the entire virus, rather they just test for various fragments of it. Many of the results are thus false, sometimes false positives and sometimes false negatives. This means one has to interpret their results with caution. Our medical authorities, to say nothing of our political ones, don’t seem to be able to do this.“

“It should be obvious from the data above that all the testing we have done and continue to do has likely confused more than enlightened. The virus is real and in the wild. How should we effectively deal with it? The best indicator of our status is how many people are in the hospital because of a clinical diagnosis of viral pneumonia. More specifically, how many are in the ICU. Note that testing here is unnecessary, as the assumption today is that any case of viral pneumonia is caused by the coronavirus.“

“If our situation regarding the epidemic improves, widespread testing will have played no role in this improvement. Why any improvement? We recognized who the at-risk population was and they took shelter and continue to do so. The Centers for Disease Control and Preventon (CDC) estimates that mortality from COVID-19 in patients younger than 50 is 0.05 percent. Virtually all of this mortality in younger patients comes from those with comorbidity. We also have gotten better at treating patients with severe pneumonia caused by the coronavirus.“
 
I will not reply directly to the bad faith actor who linked a laughably superficial (or dishonest) interpretation of specificity and sensitivity. For those interested, when using a Bayesian approach to address a clinical question, you estimate a pretest probability of disease, then interpret the test you are using through positive and/or negative predictive value in the form of a likelihood ratio, and this will result in your post-test probability. See the below graphic for a simplified way to view this.

https://media.springernature.com/ful...ML.jpg?as=webp

This is a good article to help those who are not familiar with different testing types and how to interpret them. There is a simple graph in here I suggest you all look at as it is well done.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2765837

For the most part, RT-PCRs are designed to be high specific, so the risk of false positive is low. I found it hilarious that the author of the interpretation complained about testing for fragments of the virus. That is literally what RT-PCR is designed to do. Maybe the Emeritus professor needs to go back to school in the 21st century so he can understand the basics of molecular biology. A lot has changed since he went to medical school in, if I read correctly, the 1970s. It is true when they say medicine advances with one physician retirement (or death in the darker version) at a time. The number quoted of 70% specificity for the Covid-19 is inaccurate, and although there are variations of tests out there, RT-PCR are much more specific than that. Some of the information from the above article is a bit out of date, but this is still accurate "Specificity of most of the RT-PCR tests is 100% because the primer design is specific to the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2." Dr. Kurtzman's viewpoint is a waste of time.

We also use PCR testing for most of our viral testing when looking for active disease, but it must be interpreted. We do this well and I think we have enough information about Covid-19 at this time to do a good job interpreting this. Antibody testing is a whole different animal and I think the jury is still out on how to interpret that.
 
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