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Covfefe-19 The 11th Part: Suck It Up And Die Grandpa I Need A Manicure!!
- Thread starter Handyman
- Start date
- Status
https://mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1278699417696997377/photo/1
Were the Cases in April and May almost identical? What about the deaths in May and June?
Are you struggling with that?
Go take a peak at cases in March and look at Deaths in April and also compare that to the following months.
Most people would say that is a good sign. But not here.
No a virus doesn’t disappear when you hide under the covers with a face diaper on.
RaceBoarder
Waiting for the Snow to fly...
NASCAR Driver Jimmie Johnson has tested positive for COVID.
I thought all these sports people were in their protective bubbles **shrug**
I thought all these sports people were in their protective bubbles **shrug**
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Registered User
Lolz
BREAKING: Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top fundraising official for the Trump campaign and the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr., tested positive for coronavirus, a person familiar with the matter confirmed to The Hill on Friday.
BREAKING: Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top fundraising official for the Trump campaign and the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr., tested positive for coronavirus, a person familiar with the matter confirmed to The Hill on Friday.
No symptoms. You think they could at least make it look good, say he had half of a symptom or something. Like he went to sneeze but it just wasn’t meant to be, that’s for sure Covid.
bronconick
Yep, still here
So, the "War Time President" surrendered around the 4th of July. Not quite Whitmore before attacking the aliens
Oh would you look at that no symptoms, go figure.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Well the Hill would know...they are bootlicking the Trumps to no end these days.
net presence
Active member
To the person I posted to last night... 
. Lately, your line of debate has been that deaths are down and trending down -- despite the fact that the percentage of positives are way up, hospitalizations are climbing (again, despite your recent rants stating they weren't), and ICU beds are filling up as well. Here's a Tweet thread that addresses that "inconsistency".
Miles Beckett
@mbeckett
CEO/Co-Founder Silversheet (acq. AMN Healthcare). B4 CEO/Co-Founder EQAL. Cr8r lonelygirl15. Investor Carbon Hlth, Paloma, Tradesy, Replicated +more. LA native.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts
2/9 If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
3/9 It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
4/9 There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
5/9 Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going
6/9 For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse
7/9 This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
*******https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1278381679711850499/SF3xwKGz?format=jpg&name=360x360********
Simpson's Paradox
Thanks to https://brilliant.org/minutephysics for sponsoring this video! This video is about Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy ...
youtube.com
8/9 The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
9/9 Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
My apologies as the thread includes a few graphs that I don't know how to copy/paste directly to the page without it turning into a link to the graph vs the graph itself. Still, it obviously explains why deaths have yet to move upwards. Hopefully, you can grasp this. Probably not but, just maybe...
Next, you're now arguing that the diagnostic tests are not as accurate as we need them to be and, that is actually true although not to the degree you maintain. Also, you (and many others) constantly talk about the fact that many who are infected are asymptomatic or, only get minor symptoms (also true). Which, you and those others use as justification that we shouldn't be "afraid" to go out and, as justification for why we should be re-opening the economy. Well, here's a link to an article from the website "Stat" which looks at the diagnostic effectiveness of CT scans.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...navirus-tests/
Here's something from the article:
"The scans detect hazy, patchy, “ground glass” white spots in the lung, a telltale sign of Covid-19. In one recent study of 1,014 patients, published in the journal Radiology, scientists in China reported that chest CT found 97% of Covid-19 infections. In comparison, the study found that 48% of patients who had negative results on the swab test, which detect the coronavirus’s genome, in fact had the disease."
"A positive result on the swab tests is usually reliable. “If you get a positive test result, looking for the RNA of the virus with the current methods that we have, it’s very likely to be a true positive,” said Jana Broadhurst, an infectious disease doctor and director of the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit Clinical Laboratory at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. But “if you get a negative test result, [the chance that it’s wrong is] about 30%.” Of every 100 symptomatic people who test negative for Covid-19, 30 are actually infected. The test missed them."
There is also growing belief in the scientific community that those who develop mild symptoms or, are even completely asymptomatic, are at risk for permanent physiological damage to either their respiratory or pulmonary systems. Which is another significant strike against the idea of... "what are we worried about? 80 plus percent who get it are either asymptomatic or, get only mild symptoms".... The point is, this virus and it's attending challenges IS AS BAD as the 99.99999% of scientists and medical experts are saying it is.
Unfortunately, due to the incredibly massive and criminal mismanagement of the virus at the federal level, until an effective vaccine is widely available, the ONLY way we can truly prevent significant spread is the through the use of strict lock downs. Hell, we could probably do some type of successful partial opening of society but, that would actually require getting at least 80-90% of the country to accept the need to wear a mask in public, as well as not participating in gatherings of more than 10 people. However, since we've obviously proven that 40% of the population is either too vain or too stupid to understand they actually work, we're really only left with the stay-at-home orders until a vaccine is available.
One more thing. And, this isn't addressed specifically to "you" but, more to the constant diatribe on social media by the "open it up" types. Since even Fauci and many other experts are saying they are confident we'll have a functional vaccine available by January of 2021, how does the idea of being in a "stay-at-home" scenario until then meet the definition of "we can't stay locked down forever!!"? I didn't realize that 8-9 months is now the definition of "forever"... Again, if our government would simply do what other western democracies have done and actually spent money effectively by paying individuals and businesses enough to keep them afloat until then, while simultaneously halting loan payments on big ticket items until the pandemic is over, we could actually afford to do strict lock downs until January. But no, we need to prop up billion dollar corporations instead. You know..."socialism" for the wealthy and corporations -- AGAIN...
. Lately, your line of debate has been that deaths are down and trending down -- despite the fact that the percentage of positives are way up, hospitalizations are climbing (again, despite your recent rants stating they weren't), and ICU beds are filling up as well. Here's a Tweet thread that addresses that "inconsistency". Miles Beckett
@mbeckett
CEO/Co-Founder Silversheet (acq. AMN Healthcare). B4 CEO/Co-Founder EQAL. Cr8r lonelygirl15. Investor Carbon Hlth, Paloma, Tradesy, Replicated +more. LA native.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts
2/9 If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
3/9 It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
4/9 There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
5/9 Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going
6/9 For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse
7/9 This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
*******https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1278381679711850499/SF3xwKGz?format=jpg&name=360x360********
Simpson's Paradox
Thanks to https://brilliant.org/minutephysics for sponsoring this video! This video is about Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy ...
youtube.com
8/9 The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
9/9 Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
My apologies as the thread includes a few graphs that I don't know how to copy/paste directly to the page without it turning into a link to the graph vs the graph itself. Still, it obviously explains why deaths have yet to move upwards. Hopefully, you can grasp this. Probably not but, just maybe...
Next, you're now arguing that the diagnostic tests are not as accurate as we need them to be and, that is actually true although not to the degree you maintain. Also, you (and many others) constantly talk about the fact that many who are infected are asymptomatic or, only get minor symptoms (also true). Which, you and those others use as justification that we shouldn't be "afraid" to go out and, as justification for why we should be re-opening the economy. Well, here's a link to an article from the website "Stat" which looks at the diagnostic effectiveness of CT scans.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...navirus-tests/
Here's something from the article:
"The scans detect hazy, patchy, “ground glass” white spots in the lung, a telltale sign of Covid-19. In one recent study of 1,014 patients, published in the journal Radiology, scientists in China reported that chest CT found 97% of Covid-19 infections. In comparison, the study found that 48% of patients who had negative results on the swab test, which detect the coronavirus’s genome, in fact had the disease."
"A positive result on the swab tests is usually reliable. “If you get a positive test result, looking for the RNA of the virus with the current methods that we have, it’s very likely to be a true positive,” said Jana Broadhurst, an infectious disease doctor and director of the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit Clinical Laboratory at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. But “if you get a negative test result, [the chance that it’s wrong is] about 30%.” Of every 100 symptomatic people who test negative for Covid-19, 30 are actually infected. The test missed them."
There is also growing belief in the scientific community that those who develop mild symptoms or, are even completely asymptomatic, are at risk for permanent physiological damage to either their respiratory or pulmonary systems. Which is another significant strike against the idea of... "what are we worried about? 80 plus percent who get it are either asymptomatic or, get only mild symptoms".... The point is, this virus and it's attending challenges IS AS BAD as the 99.99999% of scientists and medical experts are saying it is.
Unfortunately, due to the incredibly massive and criminal mismanagement of the virus at the federal level, until an effective vaccine is widely available, the ONLY way we can truly prevent significant spread is the through the use of strict lock downs. Hell, we could probably do some type of successful partial opening of society but, that would actually require getting at least 80-90% of the country to accept the need to wear a mask in public, as well as not participating in gatherings of more than 10 people. However, since we've obviously proven that 40% of the population is either too vain or too stupid to understand they actually work, we're really only left with the stay-at-home orders until a vaccine is available.
One more thing. And, this isn't addressed specifically to "you" but, more to the constant diatribe on social media by the "open it up" types. Since even Fauci and many other experts are saying they are confident we'll have a functional vaccine available by January of 2021, how does the idea of being in a "stay-at-home" scenario until then meet the definition of "we can't stay locked down forever!!"? I didn't realize that 8-9 months is now the definition of "forever"... Again, if our government would simply do what other western democracies have done and actually spent money effectively by paying individuals and businesses enough to keep them afloat until then, while simultaneously halting loan payments on big ticket items until the pandemic is over, we could actually afford to do strict lock downs until January. But no, we need to prop up billion dollar corporations instead. You know..."socialism" for the wealthy and corporations -- AGAIN...
rufus
rock and roller
Stupid people don't understand that you can have the virus while being asymptomatic.
Stupid people also don't understand that while having the virus but feeling perfectly fine, asymptomatic people can pass that virus on to other people, who may not end up feeling so fine.
Stupid people also don't understand that by wearing a 'face cloth', the rate of that virus spread might be lessened enough so that it will indeed disappear.
Stupid people also don't understand that while having the virus but feeling perfectly fine, asymptomatic people can pass that virus on to other people, who may not end up feeling so fine.
Stupid people also don't understand that by wearing a 'face cloth', the rate of that virus spread might be lessened enough so that it will indeed disappear.
To the person I posted to last night...
Miles Beckett
@mbeckett
CEO/Co-Founder Silversheet (acq. AMN Healthcare). B4 CEO/Co-Founder EQAL. Cr8r lonelygirl15. Investor Carbon Hlth, Paloma, Tradesy, Replicated +more. LA native.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts
2/9 If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
3/9 It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
4/9 There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
5/9 Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going
6/9 For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse
7/9 This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
*******https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/12783...60x360********
Simpson's Paradox
Thanks to https://brilliant.org/minutephysics for sponsoring this video! This video is about Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy ...
youtube.com
8/9 The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
9/9 Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
My apologies as the thread includes a few graphs that I don't know how to copy/paste directly to the page without it turning into a link to the graph vs the graph itself. Still, it obviously explains why deaths have yet to move upwards. Hopefully, you can grasp this. Probably not but, just maybe...
Next, you're now arguing that the diagnostic tests are not as accurate as we need them to be and, that is actually true although not to the degree you maintain. Also, you (and many others) constantly talk about the fact that many who are infected are asymptomatic or, only get minor symptoms (also true). Which, you and those others use as justification that we shouldn't be "afraid" to go out and, as justification for why we should be re-opening the economy. Well, here's a link to an article from the website "Stat" which looks at the diagnostic effectiveness of CT scans.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...navirus-tests/
Here's something from the article:
"The scans detect hazy, patchy, “ground glass” white spots in the lung, a telltale sign of Covid-19. In one recent study of 1,014 patients, published in the journal Radiology, scientists in China reported that chest CT found 97% of Covid-19 infections. In comparison, the study found that 48% of patients who had negative results on the swab test, which detect the coronavirus’s genome, in fact had the disease."
"A positive result on the swab tests is usually reliable. “If you get a positive test result, looking for the RNA of the virus with the current methods that we have, it’s very likely to be a true positive,” said Jana Broadhurst, an infectious disease doctor and director of the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit Clinical Laboratory at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. But “if you get a negative test result, [the chance that it’s wrong is] about 30%.” Of every 100 symptomatic people who test negative for Covid-19, 30 are actually infected. The test missed them."
There is also growing belief in the scientific community that those who develop mild symptoms or, are even completely asymptomatic, are at risk for permanent physiological damage to either their respiratory or pulmonary systems. Which is another significant strike against the idea of... "what are we worried about? 80 plus percent who get it are either asymptomatic or, get only mild symptoms".... The point is, this virus and it's attending challenges IS AS BAD as the 99.99999% of scientists and medical experts are saying it is.
Unfortunately, due to the incredibly massive and criminal mismanagement of the virus at the federal level, until an effective vaccine is widely available, the ONLY way we can truly prevent significant spread is the through the use of strict lock downs. Hell, we could probably do some type of successful partial opening of society but, that would actually require getting at least 80-90% of the country to accept the need to wear a mask in public, as well as not participating in gatherings of more than 10 people. However, since we've obviously proven that 40% of the population is either too vain or too stupid to understand they actually work, we're really only left with the stay-at-home orders until a vaccine is available.
One more thing. And, this isn't addressed specifically to "you" but, more to the constant diatribe on social media by the "open it up" types. Since even Fauci and many other experts are saying they are confident we'll have a functional vaccine available by January of 2021, how does the idea of being in a "stay-at-home" scenario until then meet the definition of "we can't stay locked down forever!!"? I didn't realize that 8-9 months is now the definition of "forever"... Again, if our government would simply do what other western democracies have done and actually spent money effectively by paying individuals and businesses enough to keep them afloat until then, while simultaneously halting loan payments on big ticket items until the pandemic is over, we could actually afford to do strict lock downs until January. But no, we need to prop up billion dollar corporations instead. You know..."socialism" for the wealthy and corporations -- AGAIN...
You have to be certifiably nuts to think that a “strict lockdown” as you call it for 8-9 months, is any sort of answer.
nice work on the Simpson’s Paradox also. So you agree people should stop using a handful of hot spots across the country to make it seem as if the entire country is in bad shape? Because most parts are doing fine.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1279302769694965760
Last edited:
Sun came up today. Did you cry about it?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1279047047669264384
https://mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1279268825565851648
Frances Tiafoe tested positive late last night. I watched some of his match yesterday and he looked in a bad way. He said he hadn’t felt good for a couple days after the match and it’s really shocking they wouldn’t have tested him earlier. Will be interesting if Querry gets sick as well.
rufus
rock and roller
- Status