Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At It

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

People work to live. Dying for your job is like making war for peace.

The logic of capitalism is always a dead end unless you own the game.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Here's the thing, though. We really don't know exactly what will happen with the re-openings, or with all these protests, or anything else relating to this disease. Even the experts are just guessing, in large part, and there aren't many experts on this board.

Around the third week of April, Georgia announced they were opening up. There were a number of posters who were quick to hop on this board with all kinds of comments like "this should end well" or "can't wait to see it in two weeks," etc...

Well, we're 6-7 weeks down the road, and what have we seen? There hasn't been any re-opening spike in Georgia. Cases haven't dropped to nothing, either, but the state is managing. Hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Dead bodies aren't lining the gutters.

Now, I'm not pointing fingers particularly at you because I don't recall you making that claim about what would happen to Georgia due to the re-opening, but there were certainly others who did.

The same is true in Florida and California when we saw the crowds at the beaches, and all the protests in Michigan, etc...

I don't know what's going to happen as a result of all these restaurants going to outdoor dining or partial re-openings. But it's easy for people to claim we're going to see this catastrophe two weeks from now, then by the time we get there everybody has moved on to a new topic.

Yeah, I don’t remember having predictions on Georgia but time now moved at warp speed so my memory from last week isn’t even reliable.

I am probably not an expert to you, but I do have a graduate degree in, and understand how to do complicated epi models and interpret them, so I’m probably better than most on here. Still not an expert, though- but looking at the data and drawing conclusions is a hobby.

Given that mpls had quieted a bit, I hope to get back into digging into data here shortly and seeing what has been going on in the last week- and of course what happens next week/.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

I am probably not an expert to you, but I do have a graduate degree in, and understand how to do complicated epi models and interpret them, so I’m probably better than most on here. Still not an expert, though- but looking at the data and drawing conclusions is a hobby.

Ok, so you have more training than most here, so I'll ask you this. Do you think you could give us an accurate, or even semi-accurate picture of what is going to happen here in Minnesota as a result of the protests and a loosening of the restaurant/bar restrictions? I'm not trying to put you on the spot. I just think that even those, like you, who have more experience or training can't sit here and realistically say that we're going to see a "spike" in the cases/deaths, or how long it'll last or how big it'll be.

We all have this intuitive sense, supported by science, that the further away we are from one another the less spread there will be, but what we really don't know is the impact of these partial re-gatherings, and how that impact compares with what is necessary to keep functioning as a society.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Ok, so you have more training than most here, so I'll ask you this. Do you think you could give us an accurate, or even semi-accurate picture of what is going to happen here in Minnesota as a result of the protests and a loosening of the restaurant/bar restrictions? I'm not trying to put you on the spot. I just think that even those, like you, who have more experience or training can't sit here and realistically say that we're going to see a "spike" in the cases/deaths, or how long it'll last or how big it'll be.

We all have this intuitive sense, supported by science, that the further away we are from one another the less spread there will be, but what we really don't know is the impact of these partial re-gatherings, and how that impact compares with what is necessary to keep functioning as a society.

I believe I could if I could find a state that looked similar- similar outbreak pattern, similar opening guidelines .

The saving grace of the protestors is that they’re outdoors- so while there has undoubtedly been spread, it’s lessened than it would be indoors.

Correct me if I’m wrong- still no time table for indoor dining here, correct?

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

I believe I could if I could find a state that looked similar- similar outbreak pattern, similar opening guidelines .

The saving grace of the protestors is that they’re outdoors- so while there has undoubtedly been spread, it’s lessened than it would be indoors.

Correct me if I’m wrong- still no time table for indoor dining here, correct?

I haven't heard of any. I talked to a guy yesterday who operates a restaurant and his trade group tells him there is some discussion opening with limited (maybe 25%) capacity that may be implemented in the middle of June, but nothing definite.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

I saw a tweet that Walz was considering June 15th for indoor seating but nothing is locked in and I didn't see anything about % of seating.

 

[state of hockey]

I saw a tweet that Walz was considering June 15th for indoor seating but nothing is locked in and I didn't see anything about % of seating.

Not enough! He's single-handedly ruined all businesses, and is solely responsible for them burning down! #RESIGN!

- Twitter users with at least 8 numbers at the end of their handle.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

I saw a tweet that Walz was considering June 15th for indoor seating but nothing is locked in and I didn't see anything about % of seating.

One of the things that I've been curious about is the "capacity" of restaurants.

I've seen bars and restaurants where capacity (for fire code purposes) is listed at say 125 people, but realistically there is maybe seating for 75.

If a bar/restaurant can open up to 50% capacity, does that mean 50% of the fire code capacity, or does it mean 50% of your seating, and if it's seating, can you add more seating assume you still meet fire code capacity?

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

5 very popular restaurants in Mn currently closing due to covid infections on staff. Closing temp, not perm

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

I'd say claiming there isn't a reopening spike in GA is somewhat false at best. Cases were trending down and then very clearly starting trending back up. https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

- Twitter users with at least 8 numbers at the end of their handle.

Also, the triple stars or any mention of MAGA, Patriot, USA, "truth seeker", etc. Also, I've always found it interesting how many of the "women" say they are nurses.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

I'd say claiming there isn't a reopening spike in GA is somewhat false at best. Cases were trending down and then very clearly starting trending back up. https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

But now they are trending down again, assuming you are looking at the seven day moving average.

I'll admit, I have no idea what testing is like in Georgia, so I have no idea of what the actual number of cases are since they re-opened. I just know 7 weeks ago what I was hearing here, and in the national news, was dire predictions of problems in Georgia due to re-opening, and problems in Florida due to beaches, and problems in California due to beaches and problems in Michigan due to protesting and problems in Missouri due to pool parties, etc...

Granted, there have been other things dominating the news, but I haven't heard anything from any of those places that suggests they are developing problems like were experienced early on in New York or New Jersey or some of the other hot spots, or predicted here. Maybe everyone has been distracted, but I think that if we were seeing 40 people die who had eaten in the same restaurant in Georgia 4 weeks ago, we'd probably have heard about it.

 

[BassAle]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

One of the things that I've been curious about is the "capacity" of restaurants.

I've seen bars and restaurants where capacity (for fire code purposes) is listed at say 125 people, but realistically there is maybe seating for 75.

If a bar/restaurant can open up to 50% capacity, does that mean 50% of the fire code capacity, or does it mean 50% of your seating, and if it's seating, can you add more seating assume you still meet fire code capacity?

they opened restaurants back up in some counties in Maine (ones without active community spread). I'm pretty sure the reduced seating is based on their seating capacity not fire code (for example, fire code may assume some standing room in some bars), plus there are requirements on the minimum spacing between tables. Most have had to remove tables and block off some booths in order to meet the spacing requirements.

 

[J.D.]

People work to live. Dying for your job is like making war for peace.

The logic of capitalism is always a dead end unless you own the game.

Give me a break with this dying for your job BS. It's utter nonsense. We don't hibernate during flu season and a lot of people die from it. It's not exactly the same as COVID, I get that. But in this case nobody is telling the most vulnerable people to just go back to work and take no precautions etc. You slowly try to get back to life while taking precautions. People are going to die, there is no way around that. If you think otherwise you're naive.

 

[J.D.]

5 very popular restaurants in Mn currently closing due to covid infections on staff. Closing temp, not perm

Protestors?

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

they opened restaurants back up in some counties in Maine (ones without active community spread). I'm pretty sure the reduced seating is based on their seating capacity not fire code (for example, fire code may assume some standing room in some bars), plus there are requirements on the minimum spacing between tables. Most have had to remove tables and block off some booths in order to meet the spacing requirements.

After I wrote my post, I hunted around for Minnesota information.

In Minnesota there is an "occupancy load" that is calculated for each building based upon its particular use. Bars and restaurants have a particular calculation that is applied to them. It primarily has to do with square footage, and what that space is used for, whether it's seating, storage, etc... That's the occupancy load that is in place whether there is a pandemic or not.

The State website that I saw basically said then that if the Governor reduces capacity by 50%, you just cut the number of the occupancy load in half.

Thus, in my example, if a bar/restaurant has an occupancy load of 120 people, a 50% covid limitation would reduce that to 60 people, regardless of the number of chairs/tables in there.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

But now they are trending down again, assuming you are looking at the seven day moving average.

I'll admit, I have no idea what testing is like in Georgia, so I have no idea of what the actual number of cases are since they re-opened. I just know 7 weeks ago what I was hearing here, and in the national news, was dire predictions of problems in Georgia due to re-opening, and problems in Florida due to beaches, and problems in California due to beaches and problems in Michigan due to protesting and problems in Missouri due to pool parties, etc...

Granted, there have been other things dominating the news, but I haven't heard anything from any of those places that suggests they are developing problems like were experienced early on in New York or New Jersey or some of the other hot spots, or predicted here. Maybe everyone has been distracted, but I think that if we were seeing 40 people die who had eaten in the same restaurant in Georgia 4 weeks ago, we'd probably have heard about it.

CA, FL, AZ and TX are all seeing their highest levels of new cases, not sure how that contradicts the predictions that they would see more new cases. On GA the cases increase pretty much right up to their unknown window, there is like a 2 day steady state for the last 2 with complete data. But there is a clear trend downward followed by a pretty dramatic turnaround that sure looks related to relaxing of their stay at home order.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

CA, FL, AZ and TX are all seeing their highest levels of new cases, not sure how that contradicts the predictions that they would see more new cases. On GA the cases increase pretty much right up to their unknown window, there is like a 2 day steady state for the last 2 with complete data. But there is a clear trend downward followed by a pretty dramatic turnaround that sure looks related to relaxing of their stay at home order.

Ok, but again is that due to testing, or a spike in infections?

As I said, take a look at your link for Georgia and look at deaths. They re-opened when daily deaths were nearly at their peak, as it turns out. They've dropped by nearly half, on a daily basis.

Again, is that because someone is lying about the deaths? I have no idea. But what I do know is I'm not hearing news reports out of Georgia that are proclaiming a calamity like we saw early on when the virus was spreading rapidly and death rates were skyrocketing.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Ok, but again is that due to testing, or a spike in infections?

As I said, take a look at your link for Georgia and look at deaths. They re-opened when daily deaths were nearly at their peak, as it turns out. They've dropped by nearly half, on a daily basis.

Again, is that because someone is lying about the deaths? I have no idea. But what I do know is I'm not hearing news reports out of Georgia that are proclaiming a calamity like we saw early on when the virus was spreading rapidly and death rates were skyrocketing.

There is a way to tell if it’s due to testing or truly rising infections. Two weeks ago my actuarial partners produced the report that explained why Minnesota’s spike could not be attributed to testing.

It’s quite a complex data analysis

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Covfefe-19 The 10th Part: Might As Well Reject No Shirt, No Shoes While You're At

Ok, but again is that due to testing, or a spike in infections?

As I said, take a look at your link for Georgia and look at deaths. They re-opened when daily deaths were nearly at their peak, as it turns out. They've dropped by nearly half, on a daily basis.

Again, is that because someone is lying about the deaths? I have no idea. But what I do know is I'm not hearing news reports out of Georgia that are proclaiming a calamity like we saw early on when the virus was spreading rapidly and death rates were skyrocketing.

No one was predicting a calamity in GA like we saw in NYC. We predicted that cases would increase, which they did. I think it's pretty clear GA and FL are at least manipulating their data. FL fired the person in charge of their data for refusing to manipulate it, and GA was reporting data out of sequence to make it look like cases were decreasing when they weren't. Every post you find a place to throw in "I have no idea," but you don't seem to let that stop you from telling everyone how right you were.