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Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

leswp1 said:
les life continues to be a lovely microcosm of life- + COVID in an elderly relative, discussion with public health nurse re contacts, history, etc, ... kid in 20s with pneumonia via xray, coughing up frank blood but no test because O2 sat is OK.... inlaw who lost job d/t shutdown of her dept.... multiple messages re inability to test, state shut down... the odd email claiming there is a cure being hidden from the public, magical ways to know you are infected without testing.... :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I've had a lot of un-Christian thoughts lately, but fortunately there are still people out there who are doing things to keep at least a little spark of my faith alive. Thank you leswp1 (and others, WisconsinWildcard coming to mind and I know there are others) for not only helping us understand a little of what is going on, but for the work you're doing in your communities. Someday (hopefully soon) when your lives are back to "normal" I hope you are able to take a well deserved rest. Prayers being said for your safety as well as everyone in the medical community. If you've done nothing else (and you're all actually doing a million times infinity more) you are least keeping me from having to listen to trump at all to get useful information and actual news.

Thank you, hang on, and be as safe as you can.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

leswp1 said:
From a meme- Now we have proof Trump is Christian- he not only wants to celebrate Easter but he gave up your grandparents for Lent. :eek:
Click to expand...

The farking Pope cancelled Easter yet president dip**** says full steam ahead.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

US deaths:

Code: 
3/01      0
3/02      5
3/03      3
3/04      2
3/05      1
3/06      3
3/07      4
3/08      3
3/09      4
3/10      4
3/11      8
3/12      3
3/13      8
3/14      8
3/15     11
3/16     18
3/17     23
3/18     41
3/19     57
3/20     49
3/21     46
3/22    117
3/23    140
3/24    225
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

A very quick and dirty slope measure:

3rd column: today / yesterday
4th column: mean of 3rd column for prior 10 days
Code: 
3/1	0		
3/2	5		
3/3	3	0.60	
3/4	2	0.67	
3/5	1	0.50	
3/6	3	3.00	
3/7	4	1.33	
3/8	3	0.75	
3/9	4	1.33	
3/10	4	1.00	
3/11	8	2.00	1.24
3/12	3	0.38	1.16
3/13	8	2.67	1.36
3/14	8	1.00	1.40
3/15	11	1.38	1.48
3/16	18	1.64	1.35
3/17	23	1.28	1.34
3/18	41	1.78	1.44
3/19	57	1.39	1.45
3/20	49	0.86	1.44
3/21	46	0.94	1.33
3/22	117	2.54	1.55
3/23	140	1.20	1.40
3/24	225	1.61	1.46

[COLOR="#FF0000"]4th column slope-driven projection for next 10 days:

3/25		329	
3/26		480	
3/27		701	
3/28		1,024	
3/29		1,497	
3/30		2,186	
3/31		3,193	
4/1		4,665	
4/2		6,814	
4/3		9,954	
[/COLOR]

The same methodology applied to the data up to 3/15 and then projecting to today, projections compared to actuals:

Code: 
3/1		0		
3/2		5		
3/3		3	0.60	
3/4		2	0.67	
3/5		1	0.50	
3/6		3	3.00	
3/7		4	1.33	
3/8		3	0.75	
3/9		4	1.33	
3/10		4	1.00	
3/11		8	2.00	1.24
3/12		3	0.38	1.16
3/13		8	2.67	1.36
3/14		8	1.00	1.40
3/15		11	1.38	1.48

3/16		18	[COLOR="#FF0000"]16	[/COLOR]
3/17		23	[COLOR="#FF0000"]23	[/COLOR]
3/18		41	[COLOR="#FF0000"]34	[/COLOR]
3/19		57	[COLOR="#FF0000"]50	[/COLOR]
3/20		49	[COLOR="#FF0000"]73	[/COLOR]
3/21		46	[COLOR="#FF0000"]107	[/COLOR]
3/22		117	[COLOR="#FF0000"]156	[/COLOR]
3/23		140	[COLOR="#FF0000"]228	[/COLOR]
3/24		225	[COLOR="#FF0000"]333[/COLOR]
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

dxmnkd316 said:
Better would be to solve for r
P0*exp(r*dT)
Click to expand...

Hence, "simpler". :)

Best would be to derive the derivative and second derivative of the curve and use them to project that actual log function and project from that.

But it has been 32 years (nearly to the day) that I could comfortably do that at 1 am without consulting my now 50-year old books. I am but a simple playwright slash mass murderer.
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Looks like the US will have the most total cases by this weekend.

Don't sleep on France; they are starting to make a move.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Kepler said:
How much did they steal for the rich this time?
Click to expand...

Depends...the article in the Post didnt make it sound awful though. The slush fund is there but it is not a free for all for the businesses at least.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">White House, Senate reach deal on emergency aid package to send money directly to many Americans as economy reels from pandemic <a href="https://t.co/5Zr1mI4HxJ">https://t.co/5Zr1mI4HxJ</a></p>— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) <a href="https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1242679924269424640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In other news Karl Anthony Towns' mother (he is an NBA player) is hospitalized with the virus.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Germany and SK get this.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We will be stuck in an endless cycle of lockdown/release for next 18 months, if we do not start mass testing, tracing, & isolating those who are carriers of the virus while pursuing rapid research for antiviral treatment or vaccine. This is the message the public needs to hear.</p>— Devi Sridhar (@devisridhar) <a href="https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1242743618986745861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Germany and SK get this.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We will be stuck in an endless cycle of lockdown/release for next 18 months, if we do not start mass testing, tracing, & isolating those who are carriers of the virus while pursuing rapid research for antiviral treatment or vaccine. This is the message the public needs to hear.</p>— Devi Sridhar (@devisridhar) <a href="https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1242743618986745861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

Not America. America opens for business on Easter. Meanwhile the charts I see indicate that our bell curve is still on the up slope and rising faster than any other nation on Earth.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

dxmnkd316 said:
$2T relief package deal agreed upon
Click to expand...

I assume that will be the trigger that will let Walz implement the shelter in place order here in Minnesota, once the law is signed and there is some sense as to how quickly the relief will be in the hands of individuals.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A week ago, New York state had 87 detected coronavirus cases per 1m citizens<br><br>Here's where a lot of Southern states are *today*... the number of *detected* cases.<br><br>LA: 298 per 1m<br>MS: 107 per 1m<br>TN: 98 per 1m<br>GA: 98 per 1m<br>AR: 72 per 1m<br>FL: 66 per 1m<br>SC: 59 per 1m<br>AL: 44 per 1m</p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1242582356499857409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

If we had testing on the level of South Korea, this might mean something. With testing ramping up, but still nowhere near what it should be, extrapolating these numbers to push any narrative is tricky. LA is in a shelter-in-place, so that should help keep their numbers down. The only states listed here that should be really worried, if the Coronavirus Act Now website is anywhere near accurate, are MS, AL, and TN, where the state has taken "limited action" to combat the outbreak. Since the only thing that can be done at this point is social distancing through closing of non-essential businesses, etc., LA did exactly what they're supposed to do, while MS, AL, and TN have done nothing. GA, AR, FL (now), and SC have all implemented social distancing measures, similar to states like MN, VA, and ME.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Holy hell. The toddler is tired of sitting inside.

(CNN) - He's sitting through glitchy conference calls, and friends say he's thinking about his job security. Cabin fever amid the coronavirus pandemic has set in and tensions on the team are brewing. No one quite knows when it will end.

As Americans enter another week of self-isolation, President Donald Trump is enduring the same Covid-era hazards befalling the rest of the country. Visits from friends and outside advisers have been limited, making the always-isolating White House feel even more so.

With no meals to prepare, menus to taste, floral arrangements to procure, décor to design or invitations to calligraphy, the back-of-house life of the White House has essentially ground to a halt as well. The private residence, where the President and first lady live with their teenage son, is operating with a scaled-down staff.

Antsy at being sealed off, with no visiting dignitaries and no large crowds, Trump has wondered aloud to aides when life will again return to normal -- not just for the nation, but for himself. The slowdown in his own life has led, in part, to Trump's strong desire to see the guidelines he offered on avoiding crowds and staying at home lifted quickly.
Click to expand...

We’re going to kill tens of thousands of Americans because trump is somehow bored with a pandemic.

Can’t link out of cnn’s app.... w t f
 
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