We could be. We could also be ahead of the curve, so to speak. We don't know. Honestly, not knowing is the scariest part. With all these shutdowns...say a family of 4 self-quarantines, and one has it, doesn't know it. That's potentially 3 more cases. Yes, they are contained, but that is still three more cases.
On the other hand, being contained helps not spread it.
Bottom line: wash/sanitize everything, if one wants to/must go out, make it the briefest contact, take precautions.
Don't get me wrong, there ARE new cases, but the truly NEW cases aren't spreading as high as the numbers indicate, overall. Incubation is still, what, 2-14 days? Someone could have it for 10 days, finally get tested, and it's called a "new case" in the reporting.
Rest assured we are way behind the curve. Because Trump, who I voted for, decided to not head warnings from several intellectuals. Fact.