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Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

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Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

SJHovey said:
I knew that would be coming. But it still doesn't address the point.

I understand taking a step like certain conferences have where they say we're not going to allow fans to attend the game. Doesn't matter if it's 1100 at Clarkson or 2000 at Cornell.

But just randomly picking a number is stupid, for a couple of reasons. First, there doesn't appear to be any sort of scientific evidence behind it. Second, it creates a false sense of security if you attend an event of less than 250 people, security that may in fact not exist.
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It's also not really Continuum Fallacy, I couldn't find the one I want.

The Continuum Fallacy is lack of precision. The one I'm looking for is criticism of precision. It's the Thumper fallacy that if nobody can tell the exact second a fetus becomes a baby then it's always a baby. It's related to Zeno's paradoxes.

Anyway, I do not agree with your larger point. You gotta pick a number to have an actionable policy. Your argument is basically saying speed limits are dangerous because they give you a false sense of security if you are driving within them. That's not an argument to not have a speed limit.

I agree it would be great if there was research about social distance and infection and indeed there probably is. There would be federal guidelines but the federal government is currently run by a bunch of petty thieves who are third grade drop outs. So, we do what we can, and that is better than nothing. You want better? Vote for smarter people next time.
 
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SJHovey said:
... Second, it creates a false sense of security if you attend an event of less than 250 people, security that may in fact not exist.
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The problem is that people who assume that small gatherings like 250 are safe from viruses is laughable.

All this does is lessen the impact of the spread. Think of it as putting fire barrier walls between town homes in a sub division. The whole complex is going to burn, but the spread of the fire is going to be slowed / not as extensive with the fire barriers giving the fire department time to get on site and respond.



Unfortunately, Trump is helming the fire department bucket brigade.
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

Hey man, if only every fire brigade were run by a businessman! Always gotta be filing for bankruptcy and making a profit
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

My first reaction is not that the number is a problem but how much space is allowed. If you have a large room and 250 people then OK. If it is a cozy little room- not so much.
People are either cautious or not- it isn't the # but the amount of risk they are willing to float.

It is really weird to see this play out just like they taught us in school years ago. It is also sad that what I predicted at the beginning is playing out like a playbook- Every state for itself with no abioity to depend on the Feds. States with robust public health systems are reacting with directives that fly in the face of opposition from the Orange Menace. It will get to critical mass where they all end up doing something but the ones who are late to the game are least prepared for the consequences of waiting.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

aparch said:
The problem is that people who assume that small gatherings like 250 are safe from viruses is laughable.

All this does is lessen the impact of the spread. Think of it as putting fire barrier walls between a sub division of town homes. The whole complex is going to burn, but the spread of the fire is going to be slowed / not as extensive with the fire barriers giving the fire department time to get on site and respond.



Unfortunately, Trump is helming the fire department bucket brigade.
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I know a city and regional planner guy who told me "fire jumper" distances in those developments allow them to better predict where the fire will move, allowing them to allocate resources to direct the path. House A is placed deliberately closer to House B in order to ensure the path isn't random, thus saving the other houses by pulling the fire to House B.

<img src="https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/03/14/19/322D9C7B00000578-0-image-a-25_1457983390733.jpg" height=300>

Fig 1. Firejumper development. Fun coincidental fact: Wuhan, China
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

You have to pick some number to give guidance. Almost all of the guidelines start with recommending no one gather at all but if they feel the need then no more than....
 
Kepler said:
I know a city and regional planner guy who told me "fire jumper" distances in those developments allow them to better predict where the fire will move, allowing them to allocate resources to direct the path. House A is placed deliberately closer to House B in order to ensure the path isn't random, thus saving the other houses by pulling the fire to House B.
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Thankfully, US subdivisions arent built as massive as that example from Wuhan, but yes, there is certain reasons that layout is done that way. This is (I assume) more of a design concern in California/Southwest where wildfires can race through communities.

Out east, my example would be the row homes adjoining each other. Generally a two hour fire rated wall separates those homes to buy some time.

Either way, that's all this arbitrary number is doing is buying time to slow the spread, to "lessen the curve" on emergency resources (I believe is the term I've seen, right Les?).
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

aparch said:
Live view from the White House:

<img src=https://i.gifer.com/DJJ.gif>
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Dump isn't worried in the least. He actually believes he has this under control. He's so dumb he doesn't know he's dumb. He's such a fraud he doesn't even know he's faking.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

unofan said:
My guess is 250 still allows things like grocery stores to remain open while basically ending all actual gatherings.
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That is probably true. But man there have to be corporate headquarters or manufacturing facilities that have more people in them than 250.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

SJHovey said:
That is probably true. But man there have to be corporate headquarters or manufacturing facilities that have more people in them than 250.
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does an office count as a "gathering"?

I work on a site with ~1300 people but there aren't thousands of people crammed together in a single space like we would be at a concert, sporting event, etc. There are no cases here in Maine yet, but if there were I would be much less likely to want to go to a hockey game vs work.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

First cases confirmed in MI this morning, coinciding with this note from our unit’s Dean:

Dear All
It appears likely that we will now have to meet the challenge of delivering classes remotely/online. We will either need to have classes entirely offered remotely/online, or to accommodate students who chose not to return to campus after spring break. The University will provide updates about this with us as they become available.
 
BassAle said:
does an office count as a "gathering"?

I work on a site with ~1300 people but there aren't thousands of people crammed together in a single space like we would be at a concert, sporting event, etc. There are no cases here in Maine yet, but if there were I would be much less likely to want to go to a hockey game vs work.
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There are, you just haven't heard about them yet.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

Gathering means all in one place, not distributed in a bunch of offices.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

leswp1 said:
Gathering means all in one place, not distributed in a bunch of offices.
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I assume that's true. On the other hand, it's not completely dissimilar from a nursing home, like the one in Washington. People have their own rooms, or are next to perhaps maybe just one other person. But people go from room to room. There are common spaces like hallways, dining areas, recreation areas, etc... Obviously the nursing home has very vulnerable individuals which I assume most companies wouldn't. But it's not like we all have to be in the same room.
 
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