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Coronavirus

Still Eeyore said:
By the time you have a significant number of cases, it's too late. One of the troubling things about Covid-19 is that you become contagious before you show symptoms, and a lot of people don't ever show symptoms at all. If there are two confirmed positive tests, it's a pretty good bet that there are a bunch more local cases that have not yet been identified.
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On a related note - and I’m not kidding - Still Eeyore, do you have any stats on what the home crowd is worth in women’s hockey? In games where fans will not be able to attend, how negatively will that impact the home team? Obviously there’s a difference between a WI home crowd and a Cornell crowd, but I’m betting you can come up with some numbers to quantify this.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Offsides Guy said:
On a related note - and I’m not kidding - Still Eeyore, do you have any stats on what the home crowd is worth in women’s hockey? In games where fans will not be able to attend, how negatively will that impact the home team? Obviously there’s a difference between a WI home crowd and a Cornell crowd, but I’m betting you can come up with some numbers to quantify this.
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Actually. Cornell does pretty well drawing crowds; maybe 1000 to 1500 a game. A real shame they won't be able to attend in person, particularly parents, family, etc.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Still Eeyore said:
By the time you have a significant number of cases, it's too late. One of the troubling things about Covid-19 is that you become contagious before you show symptoms, and a lot of people don't ever show symptoms at all. If there are two confirmed positive tests, it's a pretty good bet that there are a bunch more local cases that have not yet been identified.
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That didn't turn out to be the case with Dane County's first case; a traveler from China, diagnosed on Jan 30th. If we haven't heard about other cases following from him/her by now - and we haven't - we're not going to. The second case is someone who had recently traveled to Washington, or California, etc; unrelated in any way to the first case.


Adding: a little more detail has been added during the day. The second case person became ill "shortly" after returning from the trip when he/she contracted the virus. Followed directions and called their doctor before going to a doctor, was directed to an 'urgent care' facility on the far west side of town (in a growing but otherwise not heavily populated part of town) where he/she was met by medics in proper protective suits. etc. So the question is just how "shortly" was.
 
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Re: Coronavirus

Offsides Guy said:
On a related note - and I’m not kidding - Still Eeyore, do you have any stats on what the home crowd is worth in women’s hockey? In games where fans will not be able to attend, how negatively will that impact the home team? Obviously there’s a difference between a WI home crowd and a Cornell crowd, but I’m betting you can come up with some numbers to quantify this.
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Not a clue. This is a case where there are significant differences between sports, and at different levels of sports. So, you can't say, like you can with a lot of other things (most notably, the basic framework of Pythagorean winning percentages), "Hey, there's no data for women's college hockey specifically, but this idea has been found to be true in every sport that has been studied, so we can provisionally accept that it's true here, too." Home field advantage in major league baseball is very small (which is interesting, since it's a sport where the dimensions of the field of play vary). It's also low in the NHL. It's very big in basketball and soccer. The NFL is in between.

It's also worth noting that the correlation between crowd size and home field advantage is weak. So, you can't just assume that eastern schools that don't draw many fans would have less home ice advantage. That may be true, but there's no evidence for it.

As for why home field advantage exists, there's some evidence that suggests that the main avenue of effect is in the officiating: home teams get more calls in their favor. This is consistent with some of the differences between sports. Other than balls and strikes, which don't appear to be much affected by home field, there are few ambiguous judgment calls in a MLB game. Basketball games are filled with them, as the margin between blocking and charging is so narrow and involves more elements than the human eye can focus on simultaneously.

Tl;dr - I don't know.
 
Re: Coronavirus

robertearle said:
That didn't turn out to be the case with Dane County's first case; a traveler from China, diagnosed on Jan 30th. If we haven't heard about other cases following from him/her by now - and we haven't - we're not going to. The sceond case is someone who had recently traveled to Washington, or California, etc; unrelated in any way to the first case.
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Fine, but that largely misses my point. If you wait until there are 5-10 more cases in the area, then it is too late to contain it. For quarantine to be effective against this disease, you need to implement it before that happens. That does mean that it could turn out that drastic measures weren't necessary.

All of this is compounded by the complete disaster that the public health response has been in the U.S. We have been incredibly slow to ramp up testing, and probably still have a daily capacity in the hundreds, as opposed to, say, South Korea, which is testing more than 10,000 a day. Even today, the Secretary of Health and Human Services can't tell us how many people have been tested. There are a lot more individuals with Covid-19 out there than we know about.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Still Eeyore said:
Fine, but that largely misses my point. If you wait until there are 5-10 more cases in the area, then it is too late to contain it. For quarantine to be effective against this disease, you need to implement it before that happens. That does mean that it could turn out that drastic measures weren't necessary.

All of this is compounded by the complete disaster that the public health response has been in the U.S. We have been incredibly slow to ramp up testing, and probably still have a daily capacity in the hundreds, as opposed to, say, South Korea, which is testing more than 10,000 a day. Even today, the Secretary of Health and Human Services can't tell us how many people have been tested. There are a lot more individuals with Covid-19 out there than we know about.
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I understand the concepts involved. At the moment, thank God, little to none of it applies to Madison, or Dane County. Or more generally, to Wisconsin as a whole. In another month, after students have gone to spring break and come back, that may change.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Santa Clara County, CA has banned indoor events with more than 1,000 attendees, which includes San Jose Sharks games. The state of Ohio has mandated that all indoor athletic events take place without spectators, though parents of athletes are allowed; this affects the NCAA basketball regional in Cleveland.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Still Eeyore said:
Santa Clara County, CA has banned indoor events with more than 1,000 attendees, which includes San Jose Sharks games. The state of Ohio has mandated that all indoor athletic events take place without spectators, though parents of athletes are allowed; this affects the NCAA basketball regional in Cleveland.
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Noting the word "indoor" in those, does that mean we can hold the women's Frozen Four at Fenway? :-)
 
Re: Coronavirus

The Massachusetts governor made a bunch of rules for government employees today and suggested the same be applied to public employees. No large gatherings was one of the edicts.
However, a lot of places have placed that number at 5,000, which would mean we'll be having a very interesting conversation about the Frozen Four.

In all the cancellations and edicts that have already come down, there's not been a discussion about if media is still allowed at games closed to fans and the NCAA woho comms guy didn't have an answer for me. Should they close it to fans and media, I'm sure we'll see teleconferences or Skype calls or some other way for the media to get questions in.
 
Re: Coronavirus

robertearle said:
I understand the concepts involved. At the moment, thank God, little to none of it applies to Madison, or Dane County. Or more generally, to Wisconsin as a whole. In another month, after students have gone to spring break and come back, that may change.
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If the B16 BB tourney is still being played in front of people, then I don't see why the UW game should be played in front of no one, especially with the low amount of cases in WI. That being said, I'd bet they play the game with no spectators. If it goes on and I am one who is in the high risk zone (older and/or a history of lung issues), then I am staying home, it makes sense.

What would make no sense is to allow all these college kids to leave their campuses for spring break. That would be one of the dumbest moves in the history of recorded society. Any semblance of control would be thrown out the window.
 
NMH said:
The Massachusetts governor made a bunch of rules for government employees today and suggested the same be applied to public employees. No large gatherings was one of the edicts.
However, a lot of places have placed that number at 5,000, which would mean we'll be having a very interesting conversation about the Frozen Four.

In all the cancellations and edicts that have already come down, there's not been a discussion about if media is still allowed at games closed to fans and the NCAA woho comms guy didn't have an answer for me. Should they close it to fans and media, I'm sure we'll see teleconferences or Skype calls or some other way for the media to get questions in.
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In Ohio, media is in the “essential” group according to DeWine, and media are allowed. Of course the Blue Jackets are ignoring the advice altogether and having fans too but that’s a separate issue.
 
Timothy A said:
If the B16 BB tourney is still being played in front of people, then I don't see why the UW game should be played in front of no one, especially with the low amount of cases in WI. That being said, I'd bet they play the game with no spectators. If it goes on and I am one who is in the high risk zone (older and/or a history of lung issues), then I am staying home, it makes sense.

What would make no sense is to allow all these college kids to leave their campuses for spring break. That would be one of the dumbest moves in the history of recorded society. Any semblance of control would be thrown out the window.
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Maybe the B16 BB should rethink their policy. I honestly don’t know, don’t claim to have medical expertise but it is definitely disheartening to see some organizations doing everything they can to help, and others not caring at all (Blue Jackets). And it’s tough because you don’t get a sense there is a strong leading voice leading this mess so people are all over the map in how they are responding.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Timothy A said:
If the B16 BB tourney is still being played in front of people, then I don't see why the UW game should be played in front of no one, especially with the low amount of cases in WI. That being said, I'd bet they play the game with no spectators. If it goes on and I am one who is in the high risk zone (older and/or a history of lung issues), then I am staying home, it makes sense.

What would make no sense is to allow all these college kids to leave their campuses for spring break. That would be one of the dumbest moves in the history of recorded society. Any semblance of control would be thrown out the window.
Click to expand...

The UW Chancellor has recommended that students not travel during spring break, but there's nothing they can do to stop students from going. Break for Madison starts Saturday, with classes resuming March 23.

Also, yesterday Barry Alvarez (UW Athletic Director) told the media that the Athletic Department was going to have an 'emergency meeting" on Tuesday night to discuss their response to COV-19. No word on any decisions. Topics discussed undoubtedly would have been women's hockey, high school boys basketball tournament. and an 8K run sponsored by the UW coming up in late April that usually drawing better than 10,000 participants, and maybe double that with friends and spectators, etc (I was already skipping the run this year - achilles tendonitis - but my niece and her husband were/are coming to town to run.)
 
Re: Coronavirus

robertearle said:
The UW Chancellor has recommended that students not travel during spring break, but there's nothing they can do to stop students from going. Break for Madison starts Saturday, with classes resuming March 23.

Also, yesterday Barry Alvarez (UW Athletic Director) told the media that the Athletic Department was going to have an 'emergency meeting" on Tuesday night to discuss their response to COV-19. No word on any decisions. Topics discussed undoubtedly would have been women's hockey, high school boys basketball tournament. and an 8K run sponsored by the UW coming up in late April that usually drawing better than 10,000 participants, and maybe double that with friends and spectators, etc (I was already skipping the run this year - achilles tendonitis - but my niece and her husband were/are coming to town to run.)
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Univ of Wisconsin-Madison is suspending face-to-face instruction for at least three weeks following spring break; so for classes of March 23 through April 10. Students living in dorms are being asked to vacate their dorm as of the beginning of spring break, March 14 (also known as 'game day'!) through at least April 10.

No word yet on what that means for the Clarkson game specifically.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Sieve1 said:
UW Madison suspends “all University sponsored travel until April 10”
Assume that applies to athletic department
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I would assume that pertains to commercial travel. Women's hockey and men's basketball, I am sure, travel on charter flights, such that this will likely not apply. But we should know soon; at least by the end of the day.
 
Re: Coronavirus

Nicole Haase @NicoleHaase
BU, which is set to host the Women's Frozen Four next weekend, just moved to online classes and specifically said no large gatherings. No official word yet, but that doesn't bode well ...
 
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