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Climate Change 3: Whatever you do don't call it a twatwaffle

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Just a reminder with US Temps, we were in a La Nina while records were being broken, El Nino weather is on deck.
 
aparch said:
Just a reminder with US Temps, we were in a La Nina while records were being broken, El Nino weather is on deck.
Click to expand...

Ah shit. So as I understand it, the primary effects are a warmer fall and winter in the Midwest, right? But summers are less affected.

The more I read, the more complicated it is and it kind of busts up my preconceived notions about what El Ni�±o means
El_Nino_regional_impacts.png


while it generally means higher global temps, it doesn't necessarily mean everyone has higher temps.

El_nino_north_american_weather.png
 
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It’s May 3rd and it’s snowing. Anchorage has yet to have a day this year where the temperature hit 50 (it’s 35 right now).
 
Ok, this has to be an error in the forecast, right? Like, seven sigma is almost impossible to comprehend. Assuming this is correct, the last time a heat wave like this would have hit the region would have been somewhere between when oxygen started to accumulate on earth and the first animals evolving. so yeah, either this is incredibly noteworthy or the standard deviation of the temperature isn't being calculated correctly.

Edit: To further put this into perspective, Excel runs out of precision at about 8.15 sigma. There are temperatures listed that are 12.5 sigma above the 1981-2010 mean. That just has to be too small a population to get a decent standard deviation, right?

Edit 2: Even if these numbers were cut in half, the 6.25 sigma would still be somewhere in the range of twice since the last dinosaurs walked the earth.
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
Ok, this has to be an error in the forecast, right? Like, seven sigma is almost impossible to comprehend. Assuming this is correct, the last time a heat wave like this would have hit the region would have been somewhere between when oxygen started to accumulate on earth and the first animals evolving. so yeah, either this is incredibly noteworthy or the standard deviation of the temperature isn't being calculated correctly.

Edit: To further put this into perspective, Excel runs out of precision at about 8.15 sigma. There are temperatures listed that are 12.5 sigma above the 1981-2010 mean. That just has to be too small a population to get a decent standard deviation, right?

Edit 2: Even if these numbers were cut in half, the 6.25 sigma would still be somewhere in the range of twice since the last dinosaurs walked the earth.
Click to expand...

I do not think that the 7.5-sigma departure (anomaly) in temperature shown on the map of northern Canada is necessarily an error but rather an artifact from comparison of a short-term (7-day or 30-day forecast?) against a much longer baseline mean temperature, say the period AD 1850-2000, commonly used for pre-industrial time (likely here), or AD 1951-1980, commonly used for the three decades preceding the recent dramatic rise in temperature driven by global CO2 emissions.

That said, the Arctic has been warming about four times faster than global mean temperature driven by what is called “Arctic amplification,” a result of loss in sea ice that dramatically decreases albedo (reflectance of incoming solar radiation), as dark ocean water absorbs short wave radiation much more readily than white snow and ice. Yeah, so we are pretty much screwed in any case, as what has been the strongest temperature forcing for millions of years being astronomical cycles (ex. Earth’s tilt varies on a 41,000-year cycle and equinoxes precede in time on a 23,000-year cycle) that suggest we should have been moving into the next Ice Age beginning a few hundred years ago. Instead, recent CO2 climate forcing has been powerful enough to offset astronomical cycles and more (i.e., we have interrupted the glaciation cycle).
 
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There are a couple things that are really aggravating about the coverage this is getting.

1. The press finally covering Canadian wildfires now that it affects NYC. It's been this bad in the twin cities (and I can't even imagine California during theirs) several times in the last few years.
2. The gall to say NYC has the worst air quality on earth right now. Bitch please. There are several places in Canada with far, far, far worse air quality.
3. COVER FUCKIN CLIMATE CHANGE ASSHOLES
 
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