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Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

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Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

The Sicatoka said:
Russia had as much influence as voter fraud.
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Wikileaks had no influence on the election? Few conservatives even buy that one.

And by voter fraud, you must mean North Carolina where state Republicans shut down urban black voter stations. Or Cleveland, Ohio or other urban areas where lines to vote went around the block and were hours long because there were so few voter stations.

The Sicatoka said:
And if you look at Mrs. Clinton's own polls, her numbers had negative slope in the 48 hours before Comey ruined his and the FBI's reputations.
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The Sicatoka said:
There are tons and tons of excuses. The main one is that Mrs. Clinton couldn't hold WI, MI, OH, or PA and it was well within her reach.
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Here's a simple one:

RCP average of polls
October 27 - Clinton +5.6%
October 28 (day of Comey announcement) - Clinton +4.6%
October 29 - Clinton +4.6%
October 30 - Clinton +4.3%
October 31 - Clinton +3.1%
November 1 - Clinton +2.2%
November 2 - Clinton +1.7%
November 3 - Clinton +1.3%
November 4 - Clinton +1.6%
November 5 - Clinton +1.5%
November 6 (day of Comey retraction) - Clinton +1.8%
November 7 - +3.2%
November 8 (election day) - +3.2%

Due to the Comey announcement, Clinton dropped 2.4% points. With those points, she wins easily in electoral votes as well as popular votes:

Wisconsin (Trump +1.0%)
Michigan (Trump +0.3%)
Pennsylvania (Trump +1.2%)
Florida (Trump +1.3%)
 
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Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

unofan said:
But your reasoning is still FUBARed.
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To the Ds in MA, CA, and NY: Get out and see the world. Actually stop in "Flyover" for more than a refuel.
To the Rs in "Flyover": Get out and see the world. Actually visit some urban areas out of your comfort zone.

I think some of you forget that I lived in FL, NY, and MN, before moving back to ND. I miss the broader dialog from living in those places. Then again, I don't miss the insular dialog from those places.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

The Sicatoka said:
I don't miss the insular dialog from those places.
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Everywhere is insular. I've lived and traveled all over and I have never been to a place where 80% of the people were not parochial.

Broad perspective is a property of individuals, not city blocks or corn fields.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

Kepler said:
Everywhere is insular. I've lived and traveled all over and I have never been to a place where 80% of the people were not parochial.

Broad perspective is a property of individuals, not city blocks or corn fields.
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Completely agree (and note that I do include ND in "those places").
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

The Sicatoka said:
Both parties are horribly guilty of believing their < bleep > doesn't stink.
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Parties by definition have no self-critical skills. They are machines for marshaling and amplifying force in one direction. You don't want your wrench doubting itself.

It's the person turning the wrench who either has the power of self-skepticism or not. It's true that those people are rare in all parties. In my life I have met far more self-critical people who identify overall with the left than the right, but that may be self-selection and confirmation bias.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

burd said:
No she didn't. Every time Trump opened his mouth, his campaign suffered and the polls showed it. Why? Because he behaved like a child. We know now the polls were ultimately wrong, but his manager was hired because she was a poll expert. He is an idiot, and his behavior showed it. Until the last three weeks and the FBI disclosure, EVERYBODY thought he would lose by historical amounts. Whatever you criticize Clinton for, she talked issues FAR more than Trump, who seemed to only be able to hurl grade school insults. He didn't sucker anybody. For a while in the primaries, people thought that might be happening, but his awful campaign after being nominated showed that he was not being an idiot in order to pull the wool over anyone's eyes--that's just who he is.

We don't yet know how bad (or good) a president Trump will be, I and I hope he turns out to be a good one, but don't continue to contort yourself into believing he was a rational choice.
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If his campaign suffered so much, then how did he win? Even with all the illegals in "sanctuary cities" voting, and all of the rigged polling machines?
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

Kepler said:
It's true that those people are rare in all parties. In my life I have met far more self-critical people who identify overall with the left than the right, but that may be self-selection and confirmation bias.
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I find the opposite (the self-critical on the right*), and again, probably for the same reasons.


*Mainly conservative engineers who hate getting things wrong and and want to tweak and fix and try again.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

I get the niceties. But do keep in mind that Hillary ran on unity and experience, and Trump ran on distrust.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

The Sicatoka said:
That was no mandate.

Russia had as much influence as voter fraud.

And if you look at Mrs. Clinton's own polls, her numbers had negative slope in the 48 hours before Comey ruined his and the FBI's reputations.

There are tons and tons of excuses. The main one is that Mrs. Clinton couldn't hold WI, MI, OH, or PA and it was well within her reach.
Click to expand...

The FBI isnt why she lost nor is Russia. When people use excuses like that they are no better than Faux News or Trump for that matter. She lost because of her strategy and her personality and a bunch of people who didnt care about anyone but themselves.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

The Sicatoka said:
I find the opposite (the self-critical on the right*), and again, probably for the same reasons.


*Mainly conservative engineers who hate getting things wrong and and want to tweak and fix and try again.
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And this is why we all need to be careful when rank ordering ideas with reference to their adherents, and vice-versa.

I don't aspire to convince righties that they are wrong. I appeal to righties with the capacity for self-criticism to turn that tool on their party and its leadership.

I do not think they will like what they find.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

Kepler said:
We give Trump a chance because we give the President a chance. We give the President a chance because we believe in democracy.

Of all the disgusting things the right did the last 8 years, the worst was targeting Obama from day 1 and putting their party above their country. We rightly excoriated them for that. Now the shoe is on the other foot.

I hope the country is in better shape four years from now. I am rooting for that. If Trump and the Republican Congress do that, good for them. That's why we elect representatives -- to address the nation's problems. Ideally they do it the way we would, but even if they are going at it from what to us appear to be backwards and ineffective, not to mention ethically questionable and morally repellent ways, if they succeed and the country is better then they have done their job.

To not accept that possibility is to be trapped in the same epistemic closure we accuse the right of being in. For our theories to be rational they must be falsifiable.

So to our conservative and/or Republican friends: do your best. Solve the problems. Help Americans make their lives better. Stay within the rule of law. Good luck to you. My guess is you folks, and by extension the country as a whole, are totally screwed. But I hope I'm wrong. I will not root for a catastrophe to vindicate my beliefs.
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^
This

We are where we are. There is no going back so we can only hope for the best and prepare for the midterms and 2020. I wish him luck.

We also need to keep a check on him and the supporters out there doing evil in his name.

Respect the office. (be better than the GOP was for 8 years)

edit: and people need to quit with the Electoral College BS. Does it need revamping yes...is it the problem no.
 
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Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

Kepler said:
Of all the disgusting things the right did the last 8 years, the worst was targeting Obama from day 1 and putting their party above their country. We rightly excoriated them for that. Now the shoe is on the other foot.
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To me at least, there's a huge difference between saying "The President is a Kenyan Muslim" and saying "These people have a clear and consistent pattern of behavior, which has some frightening historical parallels."

You'd have a point if people were hammering Trump for nonsense stuff. There's always a degree of that, but to a much lesser extent on the left than the Emailz! Brigade. Stories with little substance like Russia talking with the Trump campaign--at this point, it sounds more like general outreach that is done with both campaigns--haven't gotten the same type of play they would have if the shoe was on the other foot.

Of course we all hope things go well for the next four years, but it's fair to point out evidence that it probably won't.
 
Handyman said:
The FBI isnt why she lost nor is Russia. When people use excuses like that they are no better than Faux News or Trump for that matter. She lost because of her strategy and her personality and a bunch of people who didnt care about anyone but themselves.
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And she didn't find a way to inspire those who didn't care at all.

Wrong candidate, with the wrong message, for the current times. By not running a fair and open primary, as opposed to a coronation, the DNC shouldn't be placing the blame anywhere but on themselves. The set the foundation for this loss 18 months ago.
 
Re: Campaign XXVI: The Drumpf World Order

Saul Alinsky is one of the rightwing press' favorite boogeymen. I suggest instead that the left read up on Gene Sharp.

If and when we face government actions that we need to oppose (mass deportations, erosion of civil rights and liberties, environmental devastation, the new Jim Crow), we have two great allies: the basic human decency of most people and our American democratic institutions. Appeal to the former and scrupulously cherish the latter.

Even the worst tyranny in the US has a time limit. We don't need to, indeed we should not ever aspire to, overthrow the tyrant. Our watchword should always be "slooooooooooow it down." Grit in the gears and red tape are our friends. Our job is to limit the damage that is done until people come back to their senses (or, more likely, until the fickle public turns the arrow of blame back to the other side).

Comply readily when the policy is anodyne. When it is acidic, call in sick that day, order an impact study, file a lawsuit, get to it tomorrow.
 
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