What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
It's not a matter of "the press," it's just pure numbers.

538 and some other sites had gorgeous tables and graphs ranking the states by percentage margin of victory, and there were more blue wins clustered near the center than red. I now can't find any of these, which blows.

Short of an inspirational candidate I don't expect the map to change much from 2012, which favors the Dems. It's possible an "inspirational" candidate could emerge form the yeast vat of craziness on the right -- it'd inspire people with working synapses to retch but we've seen before that's it's more important to look visionary than to have a vision.
Click to expand...
If the Dem candidate runs a horrid campaign and steps on every land mine between Lewiston and Los Angeles, then maybe they lose big. Otherwise the win big in the EC or lose close in the EC. The population concentrations favor them.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kepler said:
It's not a matter of "the press," it's just pure numbers.

538 and some other sites had gorgeous tables and graphs ranking the states by percentage margin of victory, and there were more blue wins clustered near the center than red. I now can't find any of these, which blows.

Short of an inspirational candidate I don't expect the map to change much from 2012, which favors the Dems. It's possible an "inspirational" candidate could emerge form the yeast vat of craziness on the right -- it'd inspire people with working synapses to retch but we've seen before that's it's more important to look visionary than to have a vision.
Click to expand...

I've got it here for you Kep,

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/

Even if you give Mittens the 3 states that were decided by 3% (VA, OH) or less (FL) and he keeps NC also decided by 3%....HE STILL LOSES THE ELECTION TO OBAMA! That would be a 60EV swing away from the O, but he won 332 EV's. 272 EV's gives you the Presidency. This mind you when unemployment was nearly 8%.

Regarding minorities, what your crack analysis is missing is that they need not turn out in 2008 #'s simply because they keep making up an extra 2% of the electorate every 4 years. So, the GOP candidate needs to go "Reagan in '84" with the whities to get to 50%. Possible? Sure. I don't see any Reagan's in this current field however.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

joecct said:
If the Dem candidate runs a horrid campaign and steps on every land mine between Lewiston and Los Angeles, then maybe they lose big. Otherwise the win big in the EC or lose close in the EC. The population concentrations favor them.
Click to expand...

Density's a mixed blessing. It pulls all those CA and NY EVs kicking and screaming to the left, but then there are a dozen mountain and prairie states where a population less than Thompson Arnena in a losing season is good for a righty EV.

I read a great article a few years ago where (I may be getting this in reverse order) Heritage built a position paper on the advisability of eliminating the electoral college then hurriedly pulled it when it turned out the effect had reversed and now EVs benefitted the GOP, at which time Brookings, who had been against the idea, suddenly adopted it. Kind of like how the RNC was exploring marketing for pressing electors to flip the 2000 election if Dubya lost the EV but won the PV, then had to burn bag it in the event.
 
Last edited:
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

unofan said:
we also gave our EVs to Obama fairly easily twice in a row, and have a split legislature.

Ernst was the product of a horrendous campaign by Braley combined with a GOP wave.
Click to expand...

And there's the difference.

If you're Republican you just "get elected". If your Democratic you have to run a good campaign.

Ernst is psychotic.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Regarding minorities, what your crack analysis is missing is that they need not turn out in 2008 #'s simply because they keep making up an extra 2% of the electorate every 4 years. So, the GOP candidate needs to go "Reagan in '84" with the whities to get to 50%. Possible? Sure. I don't see any Reagan's in this current field however.
Click to expand...

I was only talking about black turnout. It's a hugely different story with Hispanics, but at this point we probably should not even be thinking of Hispanics as "minorities" anymore. There was a time when the Irish weren't "white." Then the Italians weren't. Just as we make absolutely no distinction anymore, by 2050 nobody's going to be talking about a racial difference between white and Hispanic (not to mention that intermarriage will have completely erased the line for everybody but Stormfront).

One of the Great Flip Flops will be when the GOP does that 180. They can keep the black and gay barriers up, but they are going to have to fold on the Hispanics and soon. Intermingling gives them their only shot: they can say they were only against the Meskins when they were ferrners, but now that they've been washed in the freedom fountains of America, they now count as whites and the "bad" browns will then be (whoever's unpopular that week -- Mexicans are terrified of El Salvadorans and they are racist towards Guatemalans and indigenous Mexican indians, so let's pick them).
 
Last edited:
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Good news Kep! Latest poll has Clinton up double digits on all GOP rivals. While the election isn't being held today, she's an extremely well known commodity so I doubt her #'s are going to move much despite any bengazemailgate nonsense being pimped by the lamestream media (including CNN who did this poll) in league with the GOP. She also leads most of them (Bush, Walker, Christie) in their own freakin' states.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/18/politics/2016-election-poll-clinton-bush/index.html
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Good news Kep! Latest poll has Clinton up double digits on all GOP rivals.
Click to expand...

Start the coronation without me. I'll be along by and by.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Good news Kep! Latest poll has Clinton up double digits on all GOP rivals. While the election isn't being held today, she's an extremely well known commodity so I doubt her #'s are going to move much despite any bengazemailgate nonsense being pimped by the lamestream media (including CNN who did this poll) in league with the GOP. She also leads most of them (Bush, Walker, Christie) in their own freakin' states.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/18/politics/2016-election-poll-clinton-bush/index.html
Click to expand...

Don't drink the kool aid. Her popularity is a mirage.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

joecct said:
It was the same for the previous occupant. Bad news seems to be selling.
Click to expand...


I feel about pundits the same as I do about used car salesmen and paydown loan vendors, but the consensus seems to be Obama needed to get his approval rating around 50% or we'd be saying hi to President Cruz, etc. I'll be curious if we start seeing articles showing the other side of this or as you say if its negative it leads.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
I feel about pundits the same as I do about used car salesmen and paydown loan vendors, but the consensus seems to be Obama needed to get his approval rating around 50% or we'd be saying hi to President Cruz, etc. I'll be curious if we start seeing articles showing the other side of this or as you say if its negative it leads.
Click to expand...

Every new president gets its honeymoon with the press (100 days, sometimes more or less) where stories are happy-go-lucky, and then the negative stories take center stage. The president's honeymoon period ended long ago.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Boston Globe today has two front page pieces in why Liz Warren should run.

Can't the Dems find a middle ground governor? And please, Owe Malley is not middle ground.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

joecct said:
Boston Globe today has two front page pieces in why Liz Warren should run.

Can't the Dems find a middle ground governor? And please, Owe Malley is not middle ground.
Click to expand...

By middle ground are you saying Warren is too far left and Hillary is too far right (at least, for a Dem)? I can see that reaction, particularly from someone at least a little right-leaning. That Warren appears to me perfectly reasonable likely indicates she seems like a loony liberal to you. :)

I would love for her to run, if only so that the consumer-protection issues she cares about will get a fair hearing in the primaries. The Clinton machine is about cutting deals to get power (they embody "the art of the possible" -- and Rover before you say it yes, that is certainly an important part of the equation, since purists sit home while compromisers govern) and their donors are not going to want to hear about consumer protection. But that is certainly something that should at least be discussed, if not highlighted, for Dems. It sure isn't going to come from the right.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

joecct said:
Boston Globe today has two front page pieces in why Liz Warren should run.

Can't the Dems find a middle ground governor? And please, Owe Malley is not middle ground.
Click to expand...

Why should we? Clinton is leading all GOP comers by double digits and beating them in their own states! And before you say "oh its early" bear in mind she's extremely well known so it'll be hard to change opinions of her, and her only electoral loss was a challenge from her left.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

If Ted Cruz announced he was running for president and no one noticed, is he really a candidate?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Priceless said:
If Ted Cruz announced he was running for president and no one noticed, is he really a candidate?
Click to expand...


Keep a sharp eye on Mr Cruz. Come October-November, and right before the first primary, there will be a budget shutdown/debt ceiling crisis. Of the 100 knucks' running for President, ask yourself 1) who has the power to cause a crisis and 2) who benefits most from it? Answer to both: Ted Cruz. I can picture Bush trying to offer some mealy mouthed defense of raising the debt ceiling while Cruz does his No Surrender act. That's going to differentiate him from the field real quick.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Rover said:
Why should we? Clinton is leading all GOP comers by double digits and beating them in their own states! And before you say "oh its early" bear in mind she's extremely well known so it'll be hard to change opinions of her, and her only electoral loss was a challenge from her left.
Click to expand...

Do you really think she's going to win an election by double digits?

Her opponents' name recognition is pretty low. I'll bet 50% of the country has no idea who Chris Christie is and 90% have no idea who Ted Cruz is. This is unfathomable to those of us who watch this stuff every day, but most of the country doesn't care about politics until the primaries. They know that Jeb is Dubya's brother, they know Hillary, and maybe they remember who Romney is.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top