Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Wait a minute, I thought that was your take on Hillary!

If Chris Christie hasn't gotten his fat @ ss lugged yet by the feds, I doubt Cuomo will...

I don't think Hillary is sitting on scandals; I think she's a battleship in a carrier war or maybe a mounted knight in WW1.

Fair point on Christie, though. A Cuomo-Christie general would be like following an SEC investigation -- nobody except six contract lawyers at Yale would have any idea of what was going on. The winner would be the guy sentenced to the fewest number of years.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

As I've said before, and at the risk of Kepler's head exploding if Hillary is out Andrew Cuomo is most likely in. Big state governor, famous name, access to huge amounts of money. First governor to push for and pass gay marriage legalization through the legislative process and not the courts. Also as NY AG most likely has a few corporate scalps on his wall.

I'm in no way advocating his candidacy, but in a non-Hillary, non Lizzy Warren year, Cuomo can afford to lose Florida lets say to Bush if he's the nominee and still roll to the election provided he's a decent national campaigner.

I'm not sure I see the Midwest going for Cuomo

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I'm not sure I see the Midwest going for Cuomo

He'll win the NE, the Mid Atlantic and the Left Coast. With all those EV's, what's left?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

He'll win the NE, the Mid Atlantic and the Left Coast. With all those EV's, what's left?

The presidency.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Ding Ding.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Consider the Dems and the GOP's recent electoral college math. In the last 6 Presidential elections, states that have gone Dem at least 5 times yield approx 250 electoral votes. States that have gone GOP the same amount get you to about 215. So, the trick is who gets past the post first with CO, NV, OH, FL, VA in the balance. Obama swept those states (and then some in 2008) giving him the 330 or so he won in 2012.

Basically Cuomo or any generic Dem has to hold the Clinton/Obama coalition and then win either 1) Ohio, 2) Florida, or 3) CO+NV, or 4) VA. That's several paths to victory in different geographic regions. So the trick for the GOP comes down to flipping normally Dem states into their column. We often hear of WI, PA, and MI in that conversation, so perhaps Walker/Rubio wins WI and FL. Great, but WI is only 10 electoral votes and even with FL they need another 20+ votes somewhere (Ohio, VA + NV + NH)? Flipping PA would be tough since Cuomo governs next door. He'd also probably counter with a VP candidate from a key state like Virginia (Kaine, Warner, Webb) or Colorado (Hickenlooper, Bennett).

To me, before he imploded, Chris Christie always had the best chance to upset the electoral math. At the height of his popularity he'd put NJ and PA in play, two states that last voted GOP for Bush....the Elder! Taking a VP from a key state (again, I don't understand how a Floridian has never been on a national ticket, nor how the GOP can not take Rubio unless Cruz is the nominee and the ticket becomes too Hispanic for the base ) and there's the potential to add 65 electoral votes to the 215 they can count on. A narrow victory, but once you take the oath that goes out the window. However this is all moot. Tough to nominate a guy who's state budget rating has been downgraded 8 times during his tenure in office.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Once in a while people talk about Christie. I've been explaining for years that his personal appeal is so narrowly limited that it's virtually impossible he'll ever win a national election. He's not a factor. Rob Ford has a better chance of being the U.S. President than Chris Christie.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Once in a while people talk about Christie. I've been explaining for years that his personal appeal is so narrowly limited that it's virtually impossible he'll ever win a national election. He's not a factor. Rob Ford has a better chance of being the U.S. President than Chris Christie.

Yup. It can be ok to be a north easterner. But you're at a disadvantage if you look, feel, sound like one. Christie does.

All the electoral math in the world...including battleground states is relevant in an election that has two mediocre or ok candidates. If you get a popular candidate, the math starts to go out the window. We had that with Reagan and a bit of it with Clinton and Obama. IMO Bush cubed can easily become that...if it happens, you can throw out the electoral math exercises.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Consider the Dems and the GOP's recent electoral college math. In the last 6 Presidential elections, states that have gone Dem at least 5 times yield approx 250 electoral votes. States that have gone GOP the same amount get you to about 215.

I haven't looked at it for a while but I think this is a little deceptive, because IIRC several of those Dem sweep states are close to or even within the polling MOE. So yes, the good guys have continued to win them, but they are more at risk than the GOP states. Not sure how GOP voter suppression is going in those close Dem states, though obviously wherever the Republicans control the state leg minority voting rights are at risk.

A Hillary nomination might also cause unprecedented electoral churn, though in all honesty that's probably a Dem advantage. The type of mentality that would be less likely to vote for a candidate because she's a woman is already securely within the GOP congregation. OTOH, the kind of "girl power!" stupidity that Hillary somehow still seems to inspire may make a dent among non-Christoban Republican women. Plus, having a woman to attack will of course lead to some insane and embarrassing overreach by Republicans and unlike all the racist crap they threw at Obama sexist crap they throw at Hillary could hurt them. They didn't have to worry about offending minorities; they do have to worry about offending women.

All this will be offset somewhat since if the Dems nominate Hillary the GOP nominee will obviously pick a female VP.

Has anybody studied whether increased black turnout gave the Dems any states in '08 or '12? We can certainly expect those numbers to go back to '04 levels, particularly given the really depressing mainstreaming of racism since Ferguson. If it weren't already obvious, poor minorities understand post-1980 America is not a game they've been invited to play.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Not sure how GOP voter suppression is going in those close Dem states, though obviously wherever the Republicans control the state leg minority voting rights are at risk.

OTOH, the kind of "girl power!" stupidity that Hillary somehow still seems to inspire may make a dent among non-Christoban Republican women. Plus, having a woman to attack will of course lead to some insane and embarrassing overreach by Republicans and unlike all the racist crap they threw at Obama sexist crap they throw at Hillary could hurt them. They didn't have to worry about offending minorities; they do have to worry about offending women.

Has anybody studied whether increased black turnout gave the Dems any states in '08 or '12? We can certainly expect those numbers to go back to '04 levels, particularly given the really depressing mainstreaming of racism since Ferguson. If it weren't already obvious, poor minorities understand post-1980 America is not a game they've been invited to play.

None of this post makes any sense to the people who don't live, eat, sleep, and have marital relations with the "DAILYKOS" website. The paranoia level is getting way too high. (Unless this was all a joke, which occurred to me when I saw the self-referential "girl power stupidity" gag about how it's the "other" party that's sexist. That was a joke right?
Though the thing about "mainstream racism" and the threats to take away minority voting rights seem unproductive, even if meant as a joke.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kep there's less MOE states on both sides than I think the press likes to tell you. For example, Obama came closer to winning Georgia than Romney did to winning Michigan. Yet Michigan is always a "swing state" and Georgia hasn't been since 1992.

IIRC, NC was the closest one last time when it went for Mittens, then Florida @ perhaps 2%. Other than that I don't think too many other states were less than 4% margins. Maybe Ohio barely.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

None of this post makes any sense to the people who don't live, eat, sleep, and have marital relations with the "DAILYKOS" website. The paranoia level is getting way too high. (Unless this was all a joke, which occurred to me when I saw the self-referential "girl power stupidity" gag about how it's the "other" party that's sexist. That was a joke right?

I'm with ya. Even if the GOP DID have a secret agenda to surpress the vote they're remarkably poor in executing it since they've been outvoted in 5 out of the last 6 elections. If I'm into electoral fraud, gimme the Nixonian kind that leads to a 49 state landslide!

I would predict Hillary to cut into the older married white female base that trends Republican, simply because this may be the last chance these people have to see a woman President even if she isn't their first choice to attain that honor. Its like saying the Irish didn't come out for Kennedy or blacks for Obama.

Having said that, I find it a bit condescending the notion that black voters will revert to their participation rates of 12 years ago. I'm sure they have as much interest in elections as us whities do. In fact a key failing of the Romney campaign was the belief that minorities after the elation of the 2008 election would then decrease their participation rates in defiance of the last 30 years of historical trends. Obviously that didn't work out very well for him...

 

[unofan]

Kep there's less MOE states on both sides than I think the press likes to tell you. For example, Obama came closer to winning Georgia than Romney did to winning Michigan. Yet Michigan is always a "swing state" and Georgia hasn't been since 1992.

IIRC, NC was the closest one last time when it went for Mittens, then Florida @ perhaps 2%. Other than that I don't think too many other states were less than 4% margins. Maybe Ohio barely.

Iowa is clearly a swing state, but it's only 6 EVs.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Iowa is clearly a swing state, but it's only 6 EVs.

LOL. No, it's not. They elected Michelle Bachmann's clone to the Senate. They're Red.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I find it a bit condescending the notion that black voters will revert to their participation rates of 12 years ago. I'm sure they have as much interest in elections as us whities do. In fact a key failing of the Romney campaign was the belief that minorities after the elation of the 2008 election would then decrease their participation rates in defiance of the last 30 years of historical trends. Obviously that didn't work out very well for him...

Yes, Romney was a foolish campaigner. And I don't have any predictions or expectations about black, women, or any other groups participation rates. But it's a different thing to scream about how "The Republicans want to take away voting rights from black people!" That kind of stupid fear-mongering about "You better come with me to be safe or the Republicans will try to hurt you!" is what is racist and is the problem that's driving racism, if there is one. Why not trust people to make their own decisions about their own lives?

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Iowa is clearly a swing state, but it's only 6 EVs.

I'd call it a peripheral swing state...

http://www.270towin.com/states/Iowa

Obama won by 6%, outside the margin of error. From this link the Dems have won it by 10% in 1996, 1% in 2000, lost by 1% in 2004, won by 12% in 2008 and then 6% in 2012.

So, I put it this way. If a Dem candidate is going to lose Iowa, he/she has already had the race called against them because they've lost a lot of other states as well.

 

[unofan]

LOL. No, it's not. They elected Michelle Bachmann's clone to the Senate. They're Red.

we also gave our EVs to Obama fairly easily twice in a row, and have a split legislature.

Ernst was the product of a horrendous campaign by Braley combined with a GOP wave.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Kep there's less MOE states on both sides than I think the press likes to tell you.

It's not a matter of "the press," it's just pure numbers.

538 and some other sites had gorgeous tables and graphs ranking the states by percentage margin of victory, and there were more blue wins clustered near the center than red. I now can't find any of these, which blows.

Short of an inspirational candidate I don't expect the map to change much from 2012, which favors the Dems. It's possible an "inspirational" candidate could emerge form the yeast vat of craziness on the right -- it'd inspire people with working synapses to retch but we've seen before that's it's more important to look visionary than to have a vision.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Having said that, I find it a bit condescending the notion that black voters will revert to their participation rates of 12 years ago.

Couldn't resist the easy cheap shot, eh? It's not condescending to say black turnout spikes with black candidates -- or black Democrats, anyway (black Republicans have some weird optical hurdles) -- it's just data. 2016 will test an adage that if you get a guy to the polls twice they'll vote forever. If that's true, Obama will have made a systemic change in turnout. By nature I believe God helps those who are on the right side of empirical history, so I doubt it.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

But it's a different thing to scream about how "The Republicans want to take away voting rights from black people!" That kind of stupid fear-mongering about "You better come with me to be safe or the Republicans will try to hurt you!" is what is racist and is the problem that's driving racism, if there is one. Why not trust people to make their own decisions about their own lives?

These two ideas have nothing to do with each other. You can believe that people should be self-determining and also believe in fire departments. It doesn't take away from the agency of minorities to point out that objectively "voter ID" disproportionately affects lower income voters. Because the US is racist, poverty correlates with race. Ergo, voter ID results in the suppression of minority votes.

The way to stop the GOP from trying to suppress minority votes is to have minorities vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. They would stop on a dime, since their only motivation is to try to win elections by driving down Dem turnout.