Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Who was the GOP frontrunner at this point in 2012...errr..2011...2010....

I seem to recall Romney had an early lead about 18 months before the election, then lost it as the usual parade of flashes in the pan came and went (Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich). Truthfully, the only candidate with the potential to block Romney's inevitable bid was Perry, and as soon as he opened his mouth in the debates and drooled on himself, it was over.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Its not my business to give the GOP campaign advice but I would hope the inclination to nominate yet another Richie Rich has sailed after that disasterous 47% comment as well as the mansion complete with a Bat Cave and car elevator (Mitt has any many houses as he has grandkids). In McCain's defense, he only had 13 houses I believe....

The point being, the populace isn't too on board with the benevolent, born into wealth and priviledge but still just a regular guy schtick. It doesn't work for Dems (Gore, Kerry) any better than for Goopers (McCain, Romney). George W Bush & his father were the last two to pull it off, and I'm not expecting a repeat.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

The point being, the populace isn't too on board with the benevolent, born into wealth and priviledge but still just a regular guy schtick. It doesn't work for Dems (Gore, Kerry) any better than for Goopers (McCain, Romney). George W Bush & his father were the last two to pull it off, and I'm not expecting a repeat.

I wish you were right but I don't believe it. A big chunk of the country will fall for that act every time -- it explains the careers of half the politicians, three quarters of evangelists, and every country singer since 1966.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

11/7/12

I'm not even sure that's far enough back. Most of these guys favor the long con.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

and every country singer since 1966.

Really? That's kind of fascinating. Not a fan of country music myself, but it's interesting that inherited wealth determines success.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I'm not even sure that's far enough back. Most of these guys favor the long con.

Well, Ted Cruz has been running since he was sniggering about the halls of Princeton misquoting Bastiat. And Hillary's been running since Monica. Revenge is a dish best served in the West Wing.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Really? That's kind of fascinating. Not a fan of country music myself, but it's interesting that inherited wealth determines success.

I was thinking more the shtick of rich people pretending to be a-herp-a-just-a-plain-a-folks-a-derp. Some of those charlatans actually grew up poor, which helps them put the Common Man act over long after they've made their millions. There's a limitless supply of rubes who set their store by people who wouldn't p1ss on them if they were on fire. Same thing happens in Rap.

The Great Irony of American political life is the only way the herpa-derps and the thugs are ever going to see any improvement in their lives is if they join forces and string the rest of us up. That explains the constant drum beat from every institution to keep them at each other's throats.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I just don't buy this.

After incumbent senators in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina were defeated in 2014, some liberal commentators want Democrats to give up on the South. The Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky argues, “It’s lost. It’s gone. A different country.”

Not so fast. There are a few problems with the argument that “the South is lost.”

The piece is worth a read. I'll wait.

OK, I still don't buy it. Firstly because the marriage of the South and the GOP has gone well beyond policy, now. It's a tribal totem. That vast bulk of supposedly conservative southern voters are just voting party ID at this point, so if you ran identical candidates in 2 different southern races and just reversed their party, the one with the (R) after his name would win and the one with (D) would lose.

The other reason I don't buy it is that even if voters did move on policy, the parties do too, so for as long as the relative distance between the parties remains the same, the GOP will always be able to stay in the Southern sweet spot (just like the Dems can on the coasts).

Now, the Sixth Party System may fall apart and then all bets are off. That's particularly likely as more of the people who were in their 20s in the 1960s (birthdays up to 1949) take that tired fixation to their grave. (These stats are an interesting look at the mortality curve.) But given that the South has always been America's "peculiar institution," I don't expect it to be any less of an albatross in 2040 than it has been for the last 150 years.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I just don't buy this.



The piece is worth a read. I'll wait.

OK, I still don't buy it. Firstly because the marriage of the South and the GOP has gone well beyond policy, now. It's a tribal totem. That vast bulk of supposedly conservative southern voters are just voting party ID at this point, so if you ran identical candidates in 2 different southern races and just reversed their party, the one with the (R) after his name would win and the one with (D) would lose.

The other reason I don't buy it is that even if voters did move on policy, the parties do too, so for as long as the relative distance between the parties remains the same, the GOP will always be able to stay in the Southern sweet spot (just like the Dems can on the coasts).

Now, the Sixth Party System may fall apart and then all bets are off. That's particularly likely as more of the people who were in their 20s in the 1960s (birthdays up to 1949) take that tired fixation to their grave. (These stats are an interesting look at the mortality curve.) But given that the South has always been America's "peculiar institution," I don't expect it to be any less of an albatross in 2040 than it has been for the last 150 years.

Nah I'm not too worried about it. Simply put you have to change the states you compete in. Louisiana clearly is okay with electing dorks like Jindal or pervs like Vitter who preach about bad govt and morals, yet take federal dollars hand over first and rent out prostitutes. Mississippi has been the worst state in the union for so long that the people have given up hope for a better life and basically just vote for hot button issues at this point.

However, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are the states to make a play in given that Dems have won Virginia and Florida the last two elections, and NC once. Georgia is more of a project but usually when a state leads the nation in unemployment some changes start happening to the governing party on a state level, plus demographics combined with a younger population in metro Atlanta make this one a better shot IMHO than any other Old Confederacy state besides the aforementioned VA, NC, and FL.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

North Carolina is a lost cause. A few years ago I would have said that that was a place I wouldn't mind living. Now that I've seen what their politics has done the last few years and the clown they just elected to the Senate I wouldn't go near that hell hole.

The place went full derp.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

North Carolina is a lost cause. A few years ago I would have said that that was a place I wouldn't mind living. Now that I've seen what their politics has done the last few years and the clown they just elected to the Senate I wouldn't go near that hell hole.

The place went full derp.

It needs to turn into a hell hole under right wing policies if its going to redeem itself. Having said that, I do agree that Senate race was the most disappointing as Hagan was a good Senator who lost to an absolute Loon. I hope she comes back in the Presidential year of 2016, when NC's Gov also has to run for re-election. The State party needs to step up and have their ducks in a row to take advantage of that because NC is more of a New South state like Virginia than a Deep South Alabama IMHO.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Nah I'm not too worried about it. Simply put you have to change the states you compete in. Louisiana clearly is okay with electing dorks like Jindal or pervs like Vitter who preach about bad govt and morals, yet take federal dollars hand over first and rent out prostitutes. Mississippi has been the worst state in the union for so long that the people have given up hope for a better life and basically just vote for hot button issues at this point.

However, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are the states to make a play in given that Dems have won Virginia and Florida the last two elections, and NC once. Georgia is more of a project but usually when a state leads the nation in unemployment some changes start happening to the governing party on a state level, plus demographics combined with a younger population in metro Atlanta make this one a better shot IMHO than any other Old Confederacy state besides the aforementioned VA, NC, and FL.

I agree that whittling is the best approach.

VA is on a knife point right now. NoVa is essentially the northeast, so all that's needed is to bulk it up in order to overwhelm the south and west of the state which might as well be Kentucky. As long as government contractors keep growing (which will be as long as the Empire keeps growing), McLean and Herndon and Arlington will keep offering high salary gigs to top-tier university grads, so the liberals will keep pouring in. We've got this.

NC is interesting. It's available in a left wave, it's full derp during a right wave, so the center point is probably slightly right of the current US center (of course the current US center is far right by historical standards, as we re-legislate economic battles that we haven't seen since the 1920s).

FL, god, who knows? It's so crazy and so corrupt that even though the good guys have a streak there it can't be counted on.

And GA is I think Lucy's football. But then again if GA ever is in play it means the election is already over.

I think we fight the South the way we fought the Commies: containment. Assume the core is lost, extend some olive branches to the WARSAW PACT prisoners on the periphery, and above all don't allow the evil to spread. In 50 years climate change and immigration will have turned the Deep South into Nicaragua and Texas into Honduras, and the population flight back to the north will grow our majority simply via EV gain.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

It needs to turn into a hell hole under right wing policies if its going to redeem itself.

The south has been under conservative control for decades and is a hellhole because of it. They don't care; they're getting their social ya-yas out of it.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

The south has been under conservative control for decades and is a hellhole because of it. They don't care; they're getting their social ya-yas out of it.

Think of the 11 Confederate states as follows:
A) Are currently successful: Texas and Virginia
B) Used to be successful: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida
C) Haven't been successful since the Civil War: South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana

We're 50/50 for category A. Virginia due as you mentioned to govt jobs, colleges, and transplanted Northerners looks good for us, while Texas being flush with natural resources cash can maintain GOP dominance for a long time.

B is where the action is. Georgia was once a humming economy and dynamic place that was a top destination to relocate to. Now its corrupt, dumb, and has the highest unemployment in the nation. Is this a coincidence of the GOP taking over statwide at the start of the century, or and old economy state struggling to adapt? I don't know, but its essentually irrelevant. Dems need to take advantage of memory of better days when they were running things.

Florida state Dem party sucks eggs. How you can win regularly in national contests (last two Prez elections and Nelson is in his 3rd term in the Senate) yet continually lose state contests to bozos like Rick Scott is beyond me. That operation needs to clean house and be rebuilt from square one.

North Carolina ought to be the easiest one, as Dems aren't that long removed from power. Capitalize on the incompetence of the ideologically driven over common sense governor and also boot out useless Senator Burr who could be the most anonymous person in that chamber. In a high turnout Presidential year, capturing this state again would make me feel like we're looking at another Virginia and 2008 wasn't a fluke. There's plenty of highly educated new economy people down in NC with the research triangle, universities, and banking industry to capitalize on. Next year election is going to be as good a chance at they're going to get.

Category C forget about it. These people have been beaten down for so many generations there's nobody left alive who remembers when they were last prosperous and they've given up all hope. I'd live to cut off all their federal funding above and beyond what they contribute to the Treasury and then watch them try to get by without gubmint dollars though.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

It needs to turn into a hell hole under right wing policies if its going to redeem itself. Having said that, I do agree that Senate race was the most disappointing as Hagan was a good Senator who lost to an absolute Loon. I hope she comes back in the Presidential year of 2016, when NC's Gov also has to run for re-election. The State party needs to step up and have their ducks in a row to take advantage of that because NC is more of a New South state like Virginia than a Deep South Alabama IMHO.

It was a hell hole before the Dems took over in the first place. The Dems barely started to fix it and got swept out in a complete "full derps get elected here" election. They're hopeless.

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

The south has been under conservative control for decades and is a hellhole because of it. They don't care; they're getting their social ya-yas out of it.

Do you think the South was (better/worse) off under Democratic rule pre 1972?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Do you think the South was (better/worse) off under Democratic rule pre 1972?

I said conservative, not Republican. The South has been governed by the same philosophy since Reconstruction: it's a feudal society where the rich keep the white serfs and the black serfs at each other's throats.

 

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Who dood it on campaign finance revision: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/democratic-lawyer-crafted-campaign-finance-deal-113549.html

I had a thought. Since big business / special interests run the country, what if we had a posting fee for president? All the announced candidates are put into a pool. Then the money folks bid on the right for that candidate to represent them. The money posted is the amount the candidate can spend on getting elected. So Wall Street buys Hillary for $500 million, the oil companies buy their candidate for $600 million, hollywood buys Liz Warren for $300MM, defense buys Jeb Bush for $500MM, etc. If nobody bids, you're out.

The prime time auction would be the best ratings getter of the year.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Who dood it on campaign finance revision: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/democratic-lawyer-crafted-campaign-finance-deal-113549.html

I had a thought. Since big business / special interests run the country, what if we had a posting fee for president? All the announced candidates are put into a pool. Then the money folks bid on the right for that candidate to represent them. The money posted is the amount the candidate can spend on getting elected. So Wall Street buys Hillary for $500 million, the oil companies buy their candidate for $600 million, hollywood buys Liz Warren for $300MM, defense buys Jeb Bush for $500MM, etc. If nobody bids, you're out.

The prime time auction would be the best ratings getter of the year.

How is that different from what we have now?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

How is that different from what we have now?

They can all bid on as many candidates as they want. Wall Street can choose to back both Hillary and Mitt. This way they'd have to choose. Also, one rich billionaire couldn't bankroll a candidate for $10M. They'd have to pony up nine figures.