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Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

And probably the same number of delegates he (Jeb) has now. ;)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Rover said:
An exercise in utter futility. I've never seen a situation where the #1 and #2 leaders in terms of delegates get bypassed for #3, 4, or 5. That's like saying if Hillary and Bernie don't win a majority, the nomination is going to Martin O'Malley.

Do you really think Cruz and Trump voters, after getting boned out of the nomination, are going to line up behind Kasich (the ultimate DC Establishment insider)? Better off going with the choice of the primary voters and let the chips fall where they may. I may not favor Sanders over Clinton, but if he gets more delegates I'm completely opposed to not giving him or Clinton the nomination in favor of a 3rd person even if its Biden or Warren. That's not fair and it would be an electoral disaster.
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Compromise candidates are just that -- splitting the difference between two by settling for a third. Cruz declared war on the party and is possibly insane; Trump is not even a Republican and is possibly insane. If it's ever going to happen again, it is this year.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kepler said:
Compromise candidates are just that -- splitting the difference between two by settling for a third. Cruz declared war on the party and is possibly insane; Trump is not even a Republican and is possibly insane. If it's ever going to happen again, it is this year.
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Why wouldn't Trump or Cruz make the deal to put themselves over the top? Again you're not meaning to but you sound like an entrenched Beltway pundit who doesn't realize how much the GOP has changed. The party elders have been neutered. Trump has one ball in a jar on his mantle and Cruz has the other. It matters little if he's at war with the party. The primary voters hate the party. Trump and Cruz just make a deal with each other and call it a day. There's nothing the Establishment can do to stop them if they keep going 1-2 in all primary states.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Rover said:
Why wouldn't Trump or Cruz make the deal to put themselves over the top?
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Cruz can't make a deal or he loses his whole persona.

Trump can certainly make a deal -- he'll make a deal with anybody and for all we know his whole campaign is a deal with Hillary -- and the establishment is more likely to pick him because that way they keep control of the party. Yes, I will grant you the latter is a possibility.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kepler said:
Cruz can't make a deal or he loses his whole persona.

Trump can certainly make a deal -- he'll make a deal with anybody and for all we know his whole campaign is a deal with Hillary -- and the establishment is more likely to pick him because that way they keep control of the party. Yes, I will grant you the latter is a possibility.
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Cruz can make a deal to put himself over the top. Your premise IIRC is that Trump's delegates are squishy and not bound to him after the first vote. Fair enough. However the candidate most ideologically aligned with Trump is....Ted Cruz! If they're both at a hypothetical 40% of the delegates, and get past the first vote at the convention, why don't you think at least 1/4th of Trump's delegates wouldn't go over to Cruz? I can't see a Trump-Rubio or Trump-Bush pairing. Not sure how he feels about Kasich, but he'd take Kasich on as VP, not have Kasich as the nominee.

Bottom line, if Cruz and Trump keep winning, Cruz or Trump is the nominee and no one else. Frankly, that's the way it should be.

EDIT: Let me go on record again - I still think Cruz ends up being the nominee.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

If we're going on record, although I have no more knowledge than anybody else, I'll say the nominee will be neither Cruz nor Trump. I'm not confident about it --- call it a 53% likelihood.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Rover said:
An exercise in utter futility. I've never seen a situation where the #1 and #2 leaders in terms of delegates get bypassed for #3, 4, or 5. That's like saying if Hillary and Bernie don't win a majority, the nomination is going to Martin O'Malley.

Do you really think Cruz and Trump voters, after getting boned out of the nomination, are going to line up behind Kasich (the ultimate DC Establishment insider)? Better off going with the choice of the primary voters and let the chips fall where they may. I may not favor Sanders over Clinton, but if he gets more delegates I'm completely opposed to not giving him or Clinton the nomination in favor of a 3rd person even if its Biden or Warren. That's not fair and it would be an electoral disaster.
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Is DWS and Soopers feel that the insurgency is going to topple the Queen, then they will stage the Glorious Revolution Part II and bring in Joe and Jill of Delaware to rule. It's going to be fugly with the Clintonistas not supporting the revolution and the supporters of Che Bernie taking to the mountains to stage a guerrilla campaign.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kepler said:
If we're going on record, although I have no more knowledge than anybody else, I'll say the nominee will be neither Cruz nor Trump. I'm not confident about it --- call it a 53% likelihood.
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They're better off with Trump than Cruz because with Cruz, they lose people like two of my brothers. They're both blue collar guys in non-union jobs. They're worried about the immigrants taking their jobs, my family isn't Christian - the one brother being vehemently against it, and Trump has that pizzazz. The other brother even started talking politics with me for the first time ever back in November and it was about Trump and his polling numbers. I don't think he's voted once in his life and he's 52 years old. The GOP would lose guys like him en masse if they picked someone other than Trump. Meanwhile, they run the risk of losing their religious base should Trump headline the ticket, but the scary Hillary/Bernie idea could still drive them to the polls more than they otherwise would have.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

St. Clown said:
They're better off with Trump than Cruz because with Cruz, they lose people like two of my brothers. They're both blue collar guys in non-union jobs. They're worried about the immigrants taking their jobs, my family isn't Christian - the one brother being vehemently against it, and Trump has that pizzazz. The other brother even started talking politics with me for the first time ever back in November and it was about Trump and his polling numbers. I don't think he's voted once in his life and he's 52 years old. The GOP would lose guys like him en masse if they picked someone other than Trump. Meanwhile, they run the risk of losing their religious base should Trump headline the ticket, but the scary Hillary/Bernie idea could still drive them to the polls more than they otherwise would have.
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No matter who the nominees are by Election Day talk radio, Fox and the evangies will have painted this as God vs Satan, just like always. The Fundies are a captured bloc -- they have nowhere to go, and like Mulder they want to believe. They'll be out in force again, voting against TEH DEVIL!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kepler said:
No matter who the nominees are by Election Day talk radio, Fox and the evangies will have painted this as God vs Satan, just like always. The Fundies are a captured bloc -- they have nowhere to go, and like Mulder they want to believe. They'll be out in force again, voting against TEH DEVIL!
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I think your exaggerating a little bit here. I firmly believe that there are no evangelicals who feel that HRC is the Devil. One of his minions here on Earth maybe, but not THE Devil.
,
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

busterman62 said:
I think your exaggerating a little bit here. I firmly believe that there are no evangelicals who feel that HRC is the Devil. One of his minions here on Earth maybe, but not THE Devil.
,
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That's fair. For Fundies, women are always second class. ;)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Some fun polling of Trump supporters.

38% of Trump voters say they wish the South had won the Civil War to only 24% glad the North won and 38% who aren't sure. Overall just 36% of Republican primary voters in the state are glad the North emerged victorious to 30% for the South, but Trump's the only one whose supporters actually wish the South had won.
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Wheeeeeeeeeee!
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

mookie1995 said:
Southerners wishing the south had won?!?!?

Now ain't that end all be all?
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Not only that but we'd all be better off. Us in the Northern States wouldn't have to fight with these clowns anymore cause they'd be in another country. And the best part is they'd be the country that has the border with Mexico. It's a win win if the South had won.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

ScoobyDoo said:
Not only that but we'd all be better off. Us in the Northern States wouldn't have to fight with these clowns anymore cause they'd be in another country. And the best part is they'd be the country that has the border with Mexico. It's a win win if the South had won.
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Meh. Trump would just be talking about making the Virginians build the wall along the Potomac.
 
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