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Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Hey gotta like Trump blasting the notion that Bush "kept us safe" when 9/11 happened on his watch. If he wasn't insane, you could almost kinda like the guy for the truth he injects into GOP debates. He keeps astounding me with his ability to "go there" on previously unmentionable topics.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Trump is bulletproof. After what he did Sat. in the debate he should be over and he's winning going away.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

ScoobyDoo said:
Trump is bulletproof. After what he did Sat. in the debate he should be over and he's winning going away.
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I think you misunderstand his supporters. I know I did for a while. You have to remember that he has about a third of the GOP and they are absolutely locked into him. Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, and whatshisface were all splitting the evangelical vote. Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Paul were all splitting the establishment vote. As Huckabee and whatshisface dropped out, Cruz's and Carson's support grew. Once Carson dropped out, Cruz's support increased. Same with Bush, Rubio, and Kasich when Paul dropped out (though the the increase was smaller).

However, you need to look at the voter block support levels, not the individual politician's. So really, these increases in support are false increases. Where Trump's has never wavered. But again, his base is absolutely locked into supporting him. They aren't going to switch because they're fed up with "politicians" and want to vote in someone new. You're seeing it on the Democratic side as well with Bernie.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

dxmnkd316 said:
I think you misunderstand his supporters. I know I did for a while. You have to remember that he has about a third of the GOP and they are absolutely locked into him. Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, and whatshisface were all splitting the evangelical vote. Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Paul were all splitting the establishment vote. As Huckabee and whatshisface dropped out, Cruz's and Carson's support grew. Once Carson dropped out, Cruz's support increased. Same with Bush, Rubio, and Kasich when Paul dropped out (though the the increase was smaller).

However, you need to look at the voter block support levels, not the individual politician's. So really, these increases in support are false increases. Where Trump's has never wavered. But again, his base is absolutely locked into supporting him. They aren't going to switch because they're fed up with "politicians" and want to vote in someone new. You're seeing it on the Democratic side as well with Bernie.
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Technically I think Carson is still in the race!

Trump can win over some of Cruz' voters still. He inexplicably has some pull with the Evangelical crowd (most likely because they're bandwagoners) plus his #'s go up and Cruz' go down whenever he hits the gas on the "he wasn't born in America" attack.

You have to understand something else which is a bit more unpleasant. Cruz (and Rubio) aren't white. In a lot of conservative circles, the packaging matters as much as what the candidate is saying.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Rover said:
Technically I think Carson is still in the race!

Trump can win over some of Cruz' voters still. He inexplicably has some pull with the Evangelical crowd (most likely because they're bandwagoners) plus his #'s go up and Cruz' go down whenever he hits the gas on the "he wasn't born in America" attack.

You have to understand something else which is a bit more unpleasant. Cruz (and Rubio) aren't white. In a lot of conservative circles, the packaging matters as much as what the candidate is saying.
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Good points. I don't know how much of of the Cruz and Trump blocks overlap though. I honestly have no idea. It could be 95%, it could be 5%. Neither would surprise me.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

dxmnkd316 said:
Good points. I don't know how much of of the Cruz and Trump blocks overlap though. I honestly have no idea. It could be 95%, it could be 5%. Neither would surprise me.
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They should always poll for first and second choices. That would be great data.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Never confuse shouting for toughness. I want to know how they react when the manure hits the spreader. Shouting louder does not make a good leader.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Question: If Trump wins SC decisively, will pundidiotry and the lamestream media finally acknowledge that he, and not Bush or Kasich or Rubio, is the likely GOP nominee? :rolleyes:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Rover said:
Question: If Trump wins SC decisively, will pundidiotry and the lamestream media finally acknowledge that he, and not Bush or Kasich or Rubio, is the likely GOP nominee? :rolleyes:
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No. The media needs for it to be more than a one-horse race so that they can continue to have something to pump up their ratings.
 
Rover said:
Question: If Trump wins SC decisively, will pundidiotry and the lamestream media finally acknowledge that he, and not Bush or Kasich or Rubio, is the likely GOP nominee? :rolleyes:
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What do you watch or read that is telling you Bush, Kaisich or Co is the likely nominee?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Rover said:
Aside from Kep? ;)
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You don't have to be Kep to see that all of the RNC surrogates are being deployed to push Kasich, Bush and Rubio (KBR?). If it doesn't work, they'll need to fix it at the convention. Scalia's death only made it an even bigger priority.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kepler said:
You don't have to be Kep to see that all of the RNC surrogates are being deployed to push Kasich, Bush and Rubio (KBR?). If it doesn't work, they'll need to fix it at the convention. Scalia's death only made it an even bigger priority.
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Kasich (OK)
Jeb! (No - his last name has too many negative connotations)
Rubio (No)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

joecct said:
Kasich (OK)
Jeb! (No - his last name has too many negative connotations)
Rubio (No)
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I wonder where he would be if his name was Jeb Smith

Rogie21 said:
Least surprising development of the weekend: Trump eases into the "suspcious Scalia death" discussion. .
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If Trump wins he plans on appointing Fox Mulder to head the FBI
Rogie21 said:
his impossible-to-implement promises to the army of willfully ignorant.
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This is another similarity with Trump and the Sanders campaign except Bernie loves to talk about them.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kepler said:
You don't have to be Kep to see that all of the RNC surrogates are being deployed to push Kasich, Bush and Rubio (KBR?). If it doesn't work, they'll need to fix it at the convention. Scalia's death only made it an even bigger priority.
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An exercise in utter futility. I've never seen a situation where the #1 and #2 leaders in terms of delegates get bypassed for #3, 4, or 5. That's like saying if Hillary and Bernie don't win a majority, the nomination is going to Martin O'Malley.

Do you really think Cruz and Trump voters, after getting boned out of the nomination, are going to line up behind Kasich (the ultimate DC Establishment insider)? Better off going with the choice of the primary voters and let the chips fall where they may. I may not favor Sanders over Clinton, but if he gets more delegates I'm completely opposed to not giving him or Clinton the nomination in favor of a 3rd person even if its Biden or Warren. That's not fair and it would be an electoral disaster.
 
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