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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
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Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
The True Voter Fraud
Cant beat em...cheat up. You stay classy Republicans. Maybe everyone wouldnt think you are racist tools if every action you took didnt make you look like racist tools.
The True Voter Fraud
Cant beat em...cheat up. You stay classy Republicans. Maybe everyone wouldnt think you are racist tools if every action you took didnt make you look like racist tools.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
There was an interesting interview on POTUS this a.m. with a pollster who believes, in essence, that there has been no volatility in this race at all, and what we've seen have been waxing and waning of polling error caused by changes in willingness to answer pollsters. That sounds plausible unless it also track with likelihood to turn out, in which case it actually would then represent real volatility.
However it's possible that there isn't one person who has actually changed his or her mind about whom they will vote for since January.
There was an interesting interview on POTUS this a.m. with a pollster who believes, in essence, that there has been no volatility in this race at all, and what we've seen have been waxing and waning of polling error caused by changes in willingness to answer pollsters. That sounds plausible unless it also track with likelihood to turn out, in which case it actually would then represent real volatility.
However it's possible that there isn't one person who has actually changed his or her mind about whom they will vote for since January.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
Biden didn't even run and he ended up challenging Trump to a fistfight last week. That's awesome when he's Uncle Joe, but would not have played well from a POTUS candidate. He would not have held up under the stream of BS Trump would have thrown at him. I really don't think any other candidate could have stayed as disciplined in the face of Trump because Hillary is uniquely qualified after facing 30 years of it.
Biden didn't even run and he ended up challenging Trump to a fistfight last week. That's awesome when he's Uncle Joe, but would not have played well from a POTUS candidate. He would not have held up under the stream of BS Trump would have thrown at him. I really don't think any other candidate could have stayed as disciplined in the face of Trump because Hillary is uniquely qualified after facing 30 years of it.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
To be fair this is an improvement on the old method, which was to murder them.
And before any righty says it, yep, those Dixiecrats were indeed Democrats in those days. But since the '70s they've been Republicans, so they're your responsibility now.
To be fair this is an improvement on the old method, which was to murder them.
And before any righty says it, yep, those Dixiecrats were indeed Democrats in those days. But since the '70s they've been Republicans, so they're your responsibility now.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
Yeah Is aw similar stuff last night when I looked. If the stupid Voter Suppression in NC (the link I had in my previous post) is thrown out in Federal Court on Monday I will bet good money Hillary takes NC and does so by 3 or 4 points. As has been said many times, the key to Hillary winning is people not being lazy. (all demographics favor her) The worst thing the GOP can do is motivate people to vote and trying to screw them out of their Right does just that. Throw in Pro Drumpfers burning a Black Church and you just motivated a base that was looking to possibly stay home.
On Florida, I dont believe everything I read but I do believe what the survey I posted last night said because I believe they polled people who actually early voted. I also buy GOP crossover because my guess is the early GOP voters are Hispanic and Black and they aint going to Drumpf.
Idiotic to think this race "should have been over already". Its really the mantra of simpletons and pundits, which I realize is somewhat redundant.What we've found is America is a lot more openly bigoted, or tolerant of bigotry, than we all led ourselves to believe. That has nothing to do with Hillary, Biden, Democratic Jesus, or anybody else who would have allegedly put this race away early.
Anecdotal early voting update from various sources which you can go research yourself. This is based on swing states with EVs and compared to 2012 or where polling on early voting is available.
Nevada - Strongest Dem swing state turnout thus far. Estimated over half the electorate has already voted which is over 2012. Apples to apples comparison as days/times have not changed. Hillary running 6% higher in EV, similar to Obama's margin of victory.
Colorado - A little more scant info here but Dems outperforming vs last election. 2012 GOP led in early/absentee ballot voting. This year they're running even or behind. Believe Obama won CO by like 4%.
Iowa - Dems running a bit behind 2012 #'s but still ahead of GOP by about 50K (GOP running same as 2012). Not sure how much of electorate votes early.
Ohio - A little harder to compare vs 2012 due to tighter early voting window. Dems started lower primarily due to African American turnout and now trying to catch up in urban counties. Probably Dems worse state at this point.
NC - Impossible to compare to 2012. One less week of an early voting window and less polling places to start off. Full early voting began late last week. Both sides seem to agree Hillary has low double digit lead in early voting. 2M votes cast so far this year. About 4.5M total were cast in 2012.
Florida - Big dispute about the #'s here. A couple of polls have Hillary up double digits and getting a big (28%) crossover vote from Republicans. Not sure about that, but women make up larger % of the electorate than 2012, which isn't a good sign for the Trumpster. Black vote down, Hispanic vote up. Wild card is non-affiliated voters, who apparently tend to be younger and more Hispanic. Two party turnout extremely close thus far.
All in all from what I've seen/heard Dems are looking good in NV and FL, running behind 2012 in OH and IA, and cautiously optimistic in North Carolina which should become clearer this weekend with the Souls to the Polls African American voting drive that takes place on Sundays before the election.
Yeah Is aw similar stuff last night when I looked. If the stupid Voter Suppression in NC (the link I had in my previous post) is thrown out in Federal Court on Monday I will bet good money Hillary takes NC and does so by 3 or 4 points. As has been said many times, the key to Hillary winning is people not being lazy. (all demographics favor her) The worst thing the GOP can do is motivate people to vote and trying to screw them out of their Right does just that. Throw in Pro Drumpfers burning a Black Church and you just motivated a base that was looking to possibly stay home.
On Florida, I dont believe everything I read but I do believe what the survey I posted last night said because I believe they polled people who actually early voted. I also buy GOP crossover because my guess is the early GOP voters are Hispanic and Black and they aint going to Drumpf.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
This may be true. Everybody has their breaking point, and Trump's manic dissociative disorder combined with the media playing along with it would have caused anybody else to snap. She just rolled with it, which is a miracle in itself.
This may be true. Everybody has their breaking point, and Trump's manic dissociative disorder combined with the media playing along with it would have caused anybody else to snap. She just rolled with it, which is a miracle in itself.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
In 2012 election New Hampshire told me all I needed to know. Quasi-moderate out-of-central-casting Republican Mitt Romney from a neighboring state was getting crushed. If he couldn't sell it in NH, I found it hard to believe he would in the other states he needed to win.
This year in order I'm looking again at 1) New Hampshire to see if Trump truly does have a "hidden voter" surge out there, then 2) Pennsylvania. If he's losing those two every single other swing state has to go his way AND he needs to find one more state (VA? CO? WI?) not on the radar to win. Lastly is NC. If he's losing there its time to fire up his concession speech.
In 2012 election New Hampshire told me all I needed to know. Quasi-moderate out-of-central-casting Republican Mitt Romney from a neighboring state was getting crushed. If he couldn't sell it in NH, I found it hard to believe he would in the other states he needed to win.
This year in order I'm looking again at 1) New Hampshire to see if Trump truly does have a "hidden voter" surge out there, then 2) Pennsylvania. If he's losing those two every single other swing state has to go his way AND he needs to find one more state (VA? CO? WI?) not on the radar to win. Lastly is NC. If he's losing there its time to fire up his concession speech.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
I think the vast majority (somewhere around 80-90%) had their minds made up after Debate 1 if not earlier. The polls are basically showing the other 10% and whether or not people are motivated to actually vote. The proof of this is Drumpf's numbers...he is back at his high water mark of 42% but shows zero sign of moving past that. Since Debate 3 he was down around 39/40 because the GOP was unmotivated to support him. Hillary's "nosedive" brought her to around 45%, which is where she was at when she was sick. (and she is leveling off) The numbers are rather predictable which was shown brilliantly in the chart DX had yesterday.
I think the pollster is right for the most part.
What channel is POTUS I need a new station to listen to in the car besides the Comedy Central Station
I think the vast majority (somewhere around 80-90%) had their minds made up after Debate 1 if not earlier. The polls are basically showing the other 10% and whether or not people are motivated to actually vote. The proof of this is Drumpf's numbers...he is back at his high water mark of 42% but shows zero sign of moving past that. Since Debate 3 he was down around 39/40 because the GOP was unmotivated to support him. Hillary's "nosedive" brought her to around 45%, which is where she was at when she was sick. (and she is leveling off) The numbers are rather predictable which was shown brilliantly in the chart DX had yesterday.
I think the pollster is right for the most part.
What channel is POTUS I need a new station to listen to in the car besides the Comedy Central Station
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
How come when I post the very same theory you hit me with viscous personal attacks and slander, but some random pollster does the same thing and its Gospel!
How come when I post the very same theory you hit me with viscous personal attacks and slander, but some random pollster does the same thing and its Gospel!
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
All of this is with azure-colored glasses, Rover. In most cases you are exaggerating by about 2-4 points towards the Dems.
OH is likely lost. IA is almost certainly lost.
NV is a sh-tshow for pollsters; there is no point in making any prediction at all. Nobody knows.
CO is actually better than you present; no issue there.
FL is a pure toss-up and then you have GOP official shenanigans to consider.
The one place I actually agree with your glass-half-full analysis is PA which you didn't mention. While demographically PA ought to be at risk (tons of racist whites for Trump, tons of city blacks not turning out for someone pale) all polling suggests it is safe.
Your posts are so biased that I believe you are trying to spin the Cafe, which... well, I don't get why you'd spend your time doing that. What are we talking about here, a couple dozen votes tops? Better to stick to a factual presentation and preserve your credibility for the important stuff like game threads.
Idiotic to think this race "should have been over already". Its really the mantra of simpletons and pundits, which I realize is somewhat redundant.
Anecdotal early voting update from various sources which you can go research yourself. This is based on swing states with EVs and compared to 2012 or where polling on early voting is available.
Nevada - Strongest Dem swing state turnout thus far. Estimated over half the electorate has already voted which is over 2012. Apples to apples comparison as days/times have not changed. Hillary running 6% higher in EV, similar to Obama's margin of victory.
Colorado - A little more scant info here but Dems outperforming vs last election. 2012 GOP led in early/absentee ballot voting. This year they're running even or behind. Believe Obama won CO by like 4%.
Iowa - Dems running a bit behind 2012 #'s but still ahead of GOP by about 50K (GOP running same as 2012). Not sure how much of electorate votes early.
Ohio - A little harder to compare vs 2012 due to tighter early voting window. Dems started lower primarily due to African American turnout and now trying to catch up in urban counties. Probably Dems worse state at this point.
NC - Impossible to compare to 2012. One less week of an early voting window and less polling places to start off. Full early voting began late last week. Both sides seem to agree Hillary has low double digit lead in early voting. 2M votes cast so far this year. About 4.5M total were cast in 2012.
Florida - Big dispute about the #'s here. A couple of polls have Hillary up double digits and getting a big (28%) crossover vote from Republicans. Not sure about that, but women make up larger % of the electorate than 2012, which isn't a good sign for the Trumpster. Black vote down, Hispanic vote up. Wild card is non-affiliated voters, who apparently tend to be younger and more Hispanic. Two party turnout extremely close thus far.
All in all from what I've seen/heard Dems are looking good in NV and FL, running behind 2012 in OH and IA, and cautiously optimistic in North Carolina which should become clearer this weekend with the Souls to the Polls African American voting drive that takes place on Sundays before the election.
All of this is with azure-colored glasses, Rover. In most cases you are exaggerating by about 2-4 points towards the Dems.
OH is likely lost. IA is almost certainly lost.
NV is a sh-tshow for pollsters; there is no point in making any prediction at all. Nobody knows.
CO is actually better than you present; no issue there.
FL is a pure toss-up and then you have GOP official shenanigans to consider.
The one place I actually agree with your glass-half-full analysis is PA which you didn't mention. While demographically PA ought to be at risk (tons of racist whites for Trump, tons of city blacks not turning out for someone pale) all polling suggests it is safe.
Your posts are so biased that I believe you are trying to spin the Cafe, which... well, I don't get why you'd spend your time doing that. What are we talking about here, a couple dozen votes tops? Better to stick to a factual presentation and preserve your credibility for the important stuff like game threads.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
This is funny coming from you. A list of the obloquies you hurl at anybody with the temerity to disagree with you would take from now until 11/8 to detail.
This is funny coming from you. A list of the obloquies you hurl at anybody with the temerity to disagree with you would take from now until 11/8 to detail.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
Sure, but my sources tell me you are the same person who promised Trump a hand job to congratulate him on his upcoming victory in the Presidential race, so perhaps you're a wee bit too pessimistic?
Ohio is lost. Huh.
All of this is with azure-colored glasses, Rover. In most cases you are exaggerating by about 2-4 points towards the Dems.
OH is likely lost. IA is almost certainly lost.
NV is a sh-tshow for pollsters; there is no point in making any prediction at all. Nobody knows.
CO is actually better than you present; no issue there.
FL is a pure toss-up and then you have GOP official shenanigans to consider.
The one place I actually agree with your glass-half-full analysis is PA which you didn't mention. While demographically PA ought to be at risk (tons of racist whites for Trump, tons of city blacks not turning out for someone pale) all polling suggests it is safe.
Your posts are so biased that I believe you are trying to spin the Cafe, which... well, I don't get why you'd spend your time doing that. What are we talking about here, a couple dozen votes tops? Better to stick to a factual presentation and preserve your credibility for the important stuff like game threads.
Sure, but my sources tell me you are the same person who promised Trump a hand job to congratulate him on his upcoming victory in the Presidential race, so perhaps you're a wee bit too pessimistic?
Ohio is lost. Huh.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
There is no polls showing him winning Pennsylvania...hell most have him 3 or more points behind. I dont see Pennsylvania coming into play.
There is no polls showing him winning Pennsylvania...hell most have him 3 or more points behind. I dont see Pennsylvania coming into play.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
I sort of agree on that one. Ohio is polling favoring Trump by more than many states that should be locks for Hillary are polling for her.
I sort of agree on that one. Ohio is polling favoring Trump by more than many states that should be locks for Hillary are polling for her.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
I don't either but for some reason a lot of people believe it could be and that's enough for me to think it might be a good indicator of what's likely to happen. He may be stuck at the 42% number, and he may have a horrible electoral map BUT if the Democrats decide to stay home cause Hillary isn't good enough he could still win. And some of the early voting is indicating that some Dems are staying home.
I don't either but for some reason a lot of people believe it could be and that's enough for me to think it might be a good indicator of what's likely to happen. He may be stuck at the 42% number, and he may have a horrible electoral map BUT if the Democrats decide to stay home cause Hillary isn't good enough he could still win. And some of the early voting is indicating that some Dems are staying home.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
I dont think Ohio is lost at all nor is Iowa. I think we are seeing the flaw in the way 538 does their projecting. The key has always been having a larger pool of polls to average and Ohio and Iowa have so few that any time one or two come out it shifts percentages huge. He even talks about it in the chat from last weekend. The numbers just arent reliable so all you can go by is what we see first hand.
The numbers Rover is posting track with the research I did last night and I am hardly a duckies and bunnies guy about this stuff.
I dont think Ohio is lost at all nor is Iowa. I think we are seeing the flaw in the way 538 does their projecting. The key has always been having a larger pool of polls to average and Ohio and Iowa have so few that any time one or two come out it shifts percentages huge. He even talks about it in the chat from last weekend. The numbers just arent reliable so all you can go by is what we see first hand.
The numbers Rover is posting track with the research I did last night and I am hardly a duckies and bunnies guy about this stuff.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
I wouldn't look at NH because it's just too weird. Stuff going on there doesn't really track with stuff going nationally.
IMO NH, ME, UT, AK, and LA all have bizarre internals that cause them to do their own thing.
For true bell-weathers I would look at IA, OH, and PA. They all happen to be purple but that's accidental: what I'm really thinking about is comparison with prior years. They seem to be "stable" states in that they're demographically and economically changing at roughly the same pace as the rest of the country.
I wouldn't look at NH because it's just too weird. Stuff going on there doesn't really track with stuff going nationally.
IMO NH, ME, UT, AK, and LA all have bizarre internals that cause them to do their own thing.
For true bell-weathers I would look at IA, OH, and PA. They all happen to be purple but that's accidental: what I'm really thinking about is comparison with prior years. They seem to be "stable" states in that they're demographically and economically changing at roughly the same pace as the rest of the country.
The rural (R) vs. the cities (D). Turnout wins.
The only was HRC loses is if:
She goes Linda Blair with the cameras running
or
There is a smoking gun and it points her way instead of the other.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread
Ohio is a funny place. NPR had one of their reporters go into a working but poor neighborhood to interview trump supporters. They complained that a plant left town due to NAFTA- when it left before that. And the people they talked to retired from a long career there, saying it was a great job. But that neighborhood was abandoned.
But... was it *that* great of a job that you worked to retirement and are now living in squalor? Good job, sure. But great would have covered you.
And most of the people are well beyond working age. They stand to gain nothing with new jobs in town. The best they could do is be able to sell their home to someone. But then where would they go?
Finally- repeating- NAFTA didn't take the jobs- that happened before NAFTA.
Again, it's hard to point out facts when people are so sure about what happened and is happening.
Ohio is a funny place. NPR had one of their reporters go into a working but poor neighborhood to interview trump supporters. They complained that a plant left town due to NAFTA- when it left before that. And the people they talked to retired from a long career there, saying it was a great job. But that neighborhood was abandoned.
But... was it *that* great of a job that you worked to retirement and are now living in squalor? Good job, sure. But great would have covered you.
And most of the people are well beyond working age. They stand to gain nothing with new jobs in town. The best they could do is be able to sell their home to someone. But then where would they go?
Finally- repeating- NAFTA didn't take the jobs- that happened before NAFTA.
Again, it's hard to point out facts when people are so sure about what happened and is happening.
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