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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

walrus said:
He gives Fla, Ohio and NC to Trump
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Well if he's going to do that why not give Trump Minnesota and New York while he's at it. :eek:

I never understand why an Obama won state he's at best tied in (say FL or OH) is put in Trump's column, while a red state that he's tied in.....is put in Trump's column (NC, AZ). Pretty good deal if you can get it. :D
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

dxmnkd316 said:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Ok, so let's give Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa to Trump. As long as she holds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, she's still won. If I'm Hillary I redouble my efforts in those last four states and hope to God that North Carolina and Florida somehow hold.
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Personally I wouldnt give up on NC and Florida if I was her...with the amount of early voting she is is in good position and despite her "setback" she is still in a dead heat in both states.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
Well if he's going to do that why not give Trump Minnesota and New York while he's at it. :eek:

I never understand why an Obama won state he's at best tied in (say FL or OH) is put in Trump's column, while a red state that he's tied in.....is put in Trump's column (NC, AZ). Pretty good deal if you can get it. :D
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Nate has Florida and Ohio in Trump's corner right now in all but the polls-only model.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Handyman said:
Personally I wouldnt give up on NC and Florida if I was her...with the amount of early voting she is is in good position and despite her "setback" she is still in a dead heat in both states.
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Excellent point.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

dxmnkd316 said:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Ok, so let's give Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa to Trump. As long as she holds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, she's still won. If I'm Hillary I redouble my efforts in those last four states and hope to God that North Carolina and Florida somehow hold.
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While God's help is always welcome, a good turnout effort, particularly early voting, is the key. Which her campaign is doing thus far despite tighter restrictions in various states on early voting vs 2012.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

dxmnkd316 said:
Nate has Florida and Ohio in Trump's corner right now in all but the polls-only model.
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Yes but remember Nate is also not taking into account any early voting and the trends from what I read were that the Dems were doing quite well.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Handyman said:
Yes but remember Nate is also not taking into account any early voting and the trends from what I read were that the Dems were doing quite well.
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Why would he not do that? Or at least create a model that takes that into account.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

dxmnkd316 said:
Why would he not do that? Or at least create a model that takes that into account.
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Without knowing his exact methodology I believe he's a poll aggregator. If the pollsters aren't taking it into account, neither would he I wouldn't think.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

dxmnkd316 said:
Why would he not do that? Or at least create a model that takes that into account.
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Because there is no real way to know...most states only report the party the person voting (or requesting a ballot) identifies with but they dont release the numbers. (that I see though I didnt look in depth) Makes sense for a lot of reasons. It would be hard to create a model based on that because a Republican voter may not vote for Drumpf and so on.

Read the chat Kepler posted...things are not as dire as some like to think they are. There is a lot of "well if this is true", "and if the polls are wrong about this" and "if this happens" then the unspeakable could happen. Basically nate and his crew are saying that the models show her winning but there is a chance (mainly due to lack of polls in some states) that the numbers "could be" closer than they are appear. He isnt very panicked and even mentions early voting and how most people have already made up their mind. Interestingly, he thinks the thing that could be harmful to Hillary is if the Black vote is less than expected. That puts states in play that arent really right now.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
Without knowing his exact methodology I believe he's a poll aggregator. If the pollsters aren't taking it into account, neither would he I wouldn't think.
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Plus I would think he would need some previous data to know how to fit in into his model (without completely guessing), and there's probably less data on that then there is on basic polls and demographics.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
Without knowing his exact methodology I believe he's a poll aggregator. If the pollsters aren't taking it into account, neither would he I wouldn't think.
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This as well. He is looking for statistical trends throughout the mass number of polls in hopes of predicting what will happen. This drop for Hillary is because some new polls came out that were helpful to Drumpf.

Right now things are going to jump a lot...think the PWR the last few games of the season.

I wont worry until her "percent chance of victory" drops below 60 in the polls only or polls plus.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
While God's help is always welcome, a good turnout effort, particularly early voting, is the key. Which her campaign is doing thus far despite tighter restrictions in various states on early voting vs 2012.
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We will really see how much the ground game makes a difference. The anecdotes thus far tend to favor Hillary, but who knows how much of that is true versus us exaggerating a few stories. I know there was a big deal a couple of months ago how little groundwork and field offices the Trump campaign had. I wonder, though, if they've upped their game there since it was brought to attention. That said, it's not like you can just try to set that up a month before the election and magically have it work at 100%. You need to spend a few months before gathering up information on voters to see who is for, against, or undecided, so you know who to call back during early/mail-in voting and on election day itself. I've been doing a lot of phone backing out here for the last few months, and it was mostly calling NV voters to get their data. (Now it's moved onto early voting and mail-in voting info and encouragement for NV, FL, NC, ...) Also, I wonder if the Trump campaign ****ing off a lot of the mainstream GOP was hurt them there too, as resources and data they could have used they ended up without.

Anyways, if someone wants to do what they can to not leave it up to chance, go do phone banking. Even if you're not in a swing state, you'll still call people in swing states.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

I early voted today. Long lines- this Minneapolis location says over 600 people voted there today.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Is the FBI trying to make it look like they are rigging this...the optics of their moves the last month or so are mind boggling.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

**** that noise. If I was in the FBI, I'd be terrified that my organization is taking on its future CEO. A person who happens to be the political equivalent of a combine who won't forget these trespasses and will run everyone over in her path.

Seriously. Do they understand the president is the head of the executive branch? And that the FBI is part of that branch?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Is someone able to post copies of the most damming emails involving Clinton? Just four or five would be good.
 
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