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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

geezer said:
... the most pinpointed blame I've been able to accept for Trumpism is "social media" and lack of critical thinking skills in general.
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Where'd Trump come from? Easy. There's a wide swath of America that sees nothing changing or getting better. I work with a number of them.

Since the late 1980s it's been a Bush, a Clinton, a Bush, eight years where (they believe) not much changed or maybe got worse, and now they are faced with ... another Clinton. The accuracy of the "not much changed or maybe got worse" may be true or not, but perception is reality.

A microcosm? MN Congressional District 8: the Iron Range. Heavily union. Very Democrat. But it is polling Trump +8 to 12! Those folks see mining viewed as a bad thing by Washington. They see no markets for their iron ore because while Wall Street looks good, the greater economy that consumes iron really isn't flying along. They are frustrated and they see Clinton as more of the same (as in last 30 years). Trump is spewing something that sounds better, different from what they've had approaching three decades of.

The caveat they are ignoring? Trump has no idea if he can pull off what he's spewing. He's the salesman selling features that he hasn't talked to engineering about yet.

Closing thought on the Iron Range? Their incumbent Democrat representative still leads his race. Think about that. They like their guy, but are frustrated enough with DC to support Trump. (Like you said, critical thinking.)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
... his absence of a GOTV infrastructure ...
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What's more amazing to me is he's not using his rallies with significant crowds to create a GOTV movement on the fly.

If he took even just five minutes per rally to tell those folks how to get their friends and neighbors to the polls, or to early voting, or an absentee ballot, he could have a very wide ground game. Imagine if everyone leaving his rallies had a local brochure handed to attendees explaining how they can do those things.

Instead, Trump missed out on sending biographical information for Alaska's voter information brochure. In. Ept.

That tells me he likes running, but really is afraid of winning. (See: Mr. Garrison on Season 20 South Park)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
What's more amazing to me is he's not using his rallies with significant crowds to create a GOTV movement on the fly.

If he took even just five minutes per rally to tell those folks how to get their friends and neighbors to the polls, or to early voting, or an absentee ballot, he could have a very wide ground game. Imagine if everyone leaving his rallies had a local brochure handed to attendees explaining how they can do those things.

Instead, Trump missed out on sending biographical information for Alaska's voter information brochure. In. Ept.

That tells me he likes running, but really is afraid of winning. (See: Mr. Garrison on Season 20 South Park)
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If I had to speculate, I think he's applying primary contest lessons to the general election with disastrous results. I doubt he prepared much for those GOP debates. He didn't have to. Have some zingers ready which he has the ability to come up with on the fly and he was good to go. Talk over people, act like a clown. It all worked then, and he did the same thing vs Hillary and submitted the 3 worse debate performances in Presidential history. He's set the floor for how all other debate collapses will be judged.

Likewise on advertising and GOTV. Trump's personality got people to vote in the primary. He actually spent very little especially compared to some of his counterparts like Jebbers! Clearly he's counting on the same thing happening in November which completely discounts early voting and the fact that the Dems are far better at turning people out than his rivals for the nomination.

There's an old saying. Go with what got you there. He's sticking to it, no matter what.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
If I had to speculate, I think he's applying primary contest lessons to the general election with disastrous results. I doubt he prepared much for those GOP debates. He didn't have to. Have some zingers ready which he has the ability to come up with on the fly and he was good to go. Talk over people, act like a clown. It all worked then, and he did the same thing vs Hillary and submitted the 3 worse debate performances in Presidential history. He's set the floor for how all other debate collapses will be judged.
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That's probably a too generous read on his intelligence to think it's a conscious choice from him, but overall, I think you're correct. Trump's reality TV background made him a perfect fit for the multi-person debate. He had a real natural talent for knowing when to interject himself and draw attention, and when to fade back. That doesn't work in a two-person debate because he is always in the focus, and at that point, it requires at least a little bit of substance. Trump never had that and never cared to try for it.

But then again, we shouldn't dismiss Trump. We haven't had nearly enough information to properly analyze and discuss him yet.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

MaizeRage said:
That's probably a too generous read on his intelligence to think it's a conscious choice from him, but overall, I think you're correct. Trump's reality TV background made him a perfect fit for the multi-person debate. He had a real natural talent for knowing when to interject himself and draw attention, and when to fade back. That doesn't work in a two-person debate because he is always in the focus, and at that point, it requires at least a little bit of substance. Trump never had that and never cared to try for it.

But then again, we shouldn't dismiss Trump. We haven't had nearly enough information to properly analyze and discuss him yet.
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Its all the more amazing given how low of a bar the lamestream media set for him to clear. In the first two debates in the post debate coverage the talking heads were either trying to make Trump's performance better than it was or claiming it would have no impact. Only when his polls cratered did these same idiots start reporting on what the rest of us clearly saw. By the 3rd debate even the False Equivalency Gods had thrown in the towel. ;)

I thought his point of no return was the tape question in the 2nd debate. Some false humility on that one question would have won him the debate in the eyes of the media. Something like "look, at that time I was on my 3rd marriage with another child on the way even though I was in my late 50's. I was clearly trying too hard to keep up the bravado of my younger days. I apologize to my family AND to the women in question who are probably sick of being hounded by the media. That's not who I am, and since then I've discovered the joys of faith and family. If you don't believe me, feel free to ask my wife and kids."

The End. No Bill Clinton, no other nonsense. Had he done that CNN anchors would have immediately started making comparisons to the Gettysburg Address. He just couldn't pull it off.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
Its all the more amazing given how low of a bar the lamestream media set for him to clear.
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They knew he'd be a ratings bonanza. He's a plane crashing live into an oil train at a freeway overpass at rush hour. His supporters can't look away; his haters can't help but look.


Rover said:
Some false humility on that one question would have won him the debate in the eyes of the media. Something like "look, at that time I was on my 3rd marriage with another child on the way even though I was in my late 50's. I was clearly trying too hard to keep up the bravado of my younger days. I apologize to my family AND to the women in question who are probably sick of being hounded by the media. That's not who I am, and since then I've discovered the joys of faith and family. If you don't believe me, feel free to ask my wife and kids."

The End. No Bill Clinton, no other nonsense. Had he done that CNN anchors would have immediately started making comparisons to the Gettysburg Address. He just couldn't pull it off.
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I'm glad you said "false". Any guy with that track record hasn't slowed down, no matter who the guy is. (Just don't tell Milania; Hillary already knows about hers. ;) )
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
I thought his point of no return was the tape question in the 2nd debate. Some false humility on that one question would have won him the debate in the eyes of the media. Something like "look, at that time I was on my 3rd marriage with another child on the way even though I was in my late 50's. I was clearly trying too hard to keep up the bravado of my younger days. I apologize to my family AND to the women in question who are probably sick of being hounded by the media. That's not who I am, and since then I've discovered the joys of faith and family. If you don't believe me, feel free to ask my wife and kids."
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Haha. Yeah, if only he could have done that. Paul Ryan and Jason Chaffetz still believe that presidential pivot is coming any day now...
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

aparch said:
Art Bell still broadcasts occasionally. He started a new show called Midnight in the Desert that utilizes online streaming and podcasting, and after giving the show up due to safety of his family (he claims people were firing weapons in the proximity of his property), he makes occasional guest appearances on the show.

He did have a short lived stint on SiriusXM in 2013 for all of six weeks, but he burnt his bridges with them. He claimed his listeners couldn't make the online feed of his channel work properly (which, is a common complaint about the SiriusXM app for ALL the channels), but in the next breath he claimed that his show was being pirated on third party websites and demanded SiriusXM offer his show free to everyone through his own website. SiriusXM rightfully wanted to protect their exclusive agreement with him and said no to offering it for free streaming, so Art Bell told SiriusXM to pound sand.
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Doesn't shock me. Those guys all seem to dance on the knife edge of con-man / crook in everything from show content to advertisers. They're a lot like televangelists: half the audience is hate/humor watching but the other half, the rubes, are ripe for being ripped off.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Camille Paglia says she has absolutely no idea how the election will go, but these are her thoughts to a British paper:

‘If Hillary wins, nothing will change. She knows the bureaucracy, all the offices of government and that’s what she likes to do, sit behind the scenes and manipulate the levers of power.’

‘But people want change and they’re sick of the establishment — so you get this great popular surge, like you had one as well… This idea that Trump represents such a threat to western civilisation — it’s often predicted about presidents and nothing ever happens — yet if Trump wins it will be an amazing moment of change because it would destroy the power structure of the Republican party, the power structure of the Democratic party and destroy the power of the media. It would be an incredible release of energy… at a moment of international tension and crisis.’
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http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/the-woman-is-a-disaster-camille-paglia-on-hillary-clinton/
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The Sicatoka said:
Closed circuit to Kepler:

You tend to watch 538. What's going on with their chance of winning graph?

I'm seeing a shape in the odds of winning tracking now similar to what was going on in late June and mid August. There's no way the gap can close in 12 days, but the curve has hit a local maxima (Oct 18) similar to the Jun-29-ish and Aug 15-ish local maximas and the slope for Clinton is now slightly negative.

Is that just late/more polling data?
Is that "bounce" (blip?) for Trump from Debate 3?
Is it just the electoral "circadian rhythm" in action?

You know how that site works.
Is there some math that (uniquely) they do causing that down the stretch because I just don't see anything that should be moving those numbers that direction.
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I don't think it's anything more than the model reacting to a recent spate of polls showing a tighter race. As old polls roll off we'll see them first increase in importance and then gradually roll off themselves. If the polling that happens subsequently aligns well with them we'll see the race continue to tighten. If they were anomalous then we'll see one of those "hours glass" patterns.

To my knowledge we didn't hit any limit or change in the model that would create the impression of a change in momentum (this used to happen when polling would switch over from Registered to Likely voters, but Nate now bakes all that in from the start so there is no discontinuity).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Rover said:
Regarding the election, I'll say 51/42/6/1
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I think that's what I called about a month ago, but Johnson is bleeding out so unless he got a lot of early votes he may not even break 4. All those extra votes had seemed to be going to Hillary, but in the last few days we got tightening in the national polls despite Johnson falling even further.

From this list we've got almost all the polls clustering at Hillary +4 ±1, with a couple wild outliers: GfK H+13, Rasmussen H+1, and then a fewer "stretches" with H+9ish. Even USC/LA Times has pulled in to the herd.

If the election were today (and the polling is right) we'd be looking at something like 48/42/5/1.
 
bronconick said:
Mark Kirk decided to go down with the Trump ship.
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The video from Deadspin I linked to in the States thread was very da**ing. The awkward silence right after he spouted off was tough to sit through, and it only lasted a few seconds ANd I had already read what happened so I knew to expect it.

Then again, this just continues the trend of his idiotic statements, like when he coup-fourré'd Duckworth claiming that her calling Kirk "unhinged" was derogatory towards stroke victims.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

aparch said:
The video from Deadspin I linked to in the States thread was very da**ing. The awkward silence right after he spouted off was tough to sit through, and it only lasted a few seconds ANd I had already read what happened so I knew to expect it.

Then again, this just continues the trend of his idiotic statements, like when he coup-fourré'd Duckworth claiming that her calling Kirk "unhinged" was derogatory towards stroke victims.
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That line probably was awesome :rolleyes: in Kirk debate prep.

It was completely inexplicable there.

Somewhere Lincoln and Douglass roll.
 
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