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Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Remember Brexit barely won...and it didnt have to contend with an Electoral College. You would need a Brexit style disaster in all the Swing States plus more for it to happen.

Yes, it appears that the same thing that assured no Donald Trump for the Democrats (Super Delegates) is also saving us from Donald Trump in the General Election (Electoral College). Which means people do often have to be saved from themselves.

Great Britain blew it with Brexit.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Just a moment of reflection as Clinton lambastes the FBI investigation going public 11 days prior to the election: it was 24 years ago yesterday when they were publicly jeering GHWB over an additional Iran Contra investigation that went public only 4 days prior to that election - an investigation that was later dropped that December for lack of evidence.

Different situation.

CNN a pretty good investigation about the situation and its current status. Yeah, its CNN but you can't argue with the facts. http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politics/what-is-the-hatch-act/index.html. Key points:

1. The Hatch act is currently in full force...its been defended multiple times in the supreme court in the face of the first amendment and was addressed earlier this year the Justice department sent an email across the government to remind all employees.
2. The Hatch act states "use [their] official authority or influence for the purpose of interfering with or affecting the result of an election." The key is that there doesn't need to be any real impact, just intent.
3. Guilt in these cases comes down to Comey's intent can be inferred from the absence of a good reason for sending the letter. In the case of the Iran Contra affair, there was a subsequent investigation. In this case, there is no planned investigation. In fact letters were sent without Comey even knowing what the contents were and whether there was in fact one piece of incriminating evidence. In fact, he couldn't have known anything about their contents prior to sending the letter.

"In this case, where Comey communicated with Congress knowing that none of the e-mails were to or from Secretary Clinton, is difficult to understand the argument that the value to public discourse outweighed the potential prejudice to Clinton.

That calculus could well have been different if the e-mails contained information tending to incriminate (or exculpate) Clinton, but Comey had no way of knowing whether they did at the time of his communication -- and, at least so far, they appear not to do either."

Where are we at?
"Painter on Saturday formally filed a complaint with Office of Special Counsel -- and with the Office of Government Ethics -- seeking to trigger an investigation of Comey's conduct.

But unlike most federal employees, the director of the FBI serves at the pleasure of the President (and for no more than 10 years). Although Comey's term will not expire until September 2023, nothing prevents President Barack Obama (or his successor) from terminating him."

Obama should suspend him pending resolution of the investigation...but as its BO's weakness, he probably won't.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Yes, it appears that the same thing that assured no Donald Trump for the Democrats (Super Delegates) is also saving us from Donald Trump in the General Election (Electoral College). Which means people do often have to be saved from themselves.

Great Britain blew it with Brexit.

Yes they did...but they saved us too cause we get to learn from their stupidity.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Unless the investigation involves an offense that deems the candidate unworthy of office (legally speaking)....

....best explanation for Comey's action that I've seen yet.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Biden was on the Sunday shows yesterday. He doesn't use email. If I were in high level government I wouldn't use it either.

Recently a Montana newspaper wanted to find out what's going on with U of Montana Athletics so he FOIA'd the AD's email.

In the FOIA response was this: The AD got an email from the Big Sky Commissioner asking him about < whatever >. The UMt AD responded with something like "Call me. Won't be subject to FOIA."

The UMt AD is smarter than high government officials? :confused: :eek:


PS - Scoob, I'm with you. I'd follow Biden's path -- no email. Then again you and he and I think about this stuff and realize we are subject to rule of law.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Yes they did...but they saved us too cause we get to learn from their stupidity.

Brexit was also a lot closer in the polls. It was essentially a toss up. There was some conventional wisdom and "analysis" out in the media before the referendum, that undecideds break for the status quo, but that didn't happen. There was also a lot of under polling of certain areas of the country (the Northeast) which went heavily Brexit.

Our state level polling everywhere probably mitigates against a miss like that.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Some polls are tightening. You also have the Brexit angle. In other words sometimes all these polls are just wrong. I still believe you but I'm never going to be 100% convinced until a week from Wednesday.

A mentor told me back in July to not believe polls until the week before the election. Before that the polls are mostly advocates (and may do tricky things with sampling).

In the week before the election nobody wants to be wrong.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

PS - Scoob, I'm with you. I'd follow Biden's path -- no email. Then again you and he and I think about this stuff and realize we are subject to rule of law.

Email is a cesspool.

No guarantee of delivery.
No guarantee the person on the other end read it and understood it.
Most email sent in the world is garbage, spam, trojans, or just plain ****.
Horrible way to communicate.

Use the **** phone.

If you use email use it for short, sweet, unambiguous things.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Email is a cesspool.

No guarantee of delivery.
No guarantee the person on the other end read it and understood it.
Most email sent in the world is garbage, spam, trojans, or just plain ****.
Horrible way to communicate.

Use the **** phone.

If you use email use it for short, sweet, unambiguous things.

Its better to sext.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Email is a cesspool.
With all that said, text messages are the oily thin film sheen on the surface of the cesspool. You may delete the texts from your device but there's no guarantee that the provider doesn't still have them on some server in their system.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Different situation.


3. Guilt in these cases comes down to Comey's intent can be inferred from the absence of a good reason for sending the letter. In the case of the Iran Contra affair, there was a subsequent investigation. In this case, there is no planned investigation. In fact letters were sent without Comey even knowing what the contents were and whether there was in fact one piece of incriminating evidence. In fact, he couldn't have known anything about their contents prior to sending the letter.

"In this case, where Comey communicated with Congress knowing that none of the e-mails were to or from Secretary Clinton, is difficult to understand the argument that the value to public discourse outweighed the potential prejudice to Clinton.

That calculus could well have been different if the e-mails contained information tending to incriminate (or exculpate) Clinton, but Comey had no way of knowing whether they did at the time of his communication -- and, at least so far, they appear not to do either."

What do you mean by "subsequent investigation"? Walsh (a federal employee) indicted Weinberger 4 days before the election and chose the most embarrassing to Bush page of Weinberger's diary he could to release, when he could have selected any of 1700 other pages that equally showed his basis. (There's some intent right there.) And there certainly is a planned investigation in this case.

Neither CNN nor Painter (nor anybody else slinging political mud) have any idea what Comey himself knows or doesn't know. They didn't need a warrant to examine the computer contents as Danger gave it over voluntarily. They followed protocols, but that doesn't mean at all they couldn't know a good deal more about what they have then they are prepared or able to let out. It's not uncommon at all for investigators to have info in their possession that needs to go through legal procedures to get in correctly as evidence.

Comey was stuck between a rock and a hard place. Between the DOJ suppressing on one one side and FBI agents, who were critical of his previous decision in the case, on the other wanting it out. And all of whom, as we have seen the last couple days from both the DOJ and FBI, are more than willing to leak info. This was very likely coming out one way or the other, it seems.

Guarantee in any case a Hatch violation is a huge political nothingburger. Comey is one of the smartest guys in the room when it comes to the letter of the law and there's just no way it can go anywhere, despite what the Honorable Harry Reid has to say about it.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

With all that said, text messages are the oily thin film sheen on the surface of the cesspool. You may delete the texts from your device but there's no guarantee that the provider doesn't still have them on some server in their system.

Text messages are housed at the NSA. Emails, even if you delete them don't go away. There's another copy somewhere. If you delete them the person on the other end probably doesn't.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

Text messages are housed at the NSA. Emails, even if you delete them don't go away. There's another copy somewhere. If you delete them the person on the other end probably doesn't.

Yup. Email is way more traceable that traditional snail mail. With email there's the email, your sent items, every server the mail bounced through, the receiving server, and the receiver's device(s). Copies, copies everywhere.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The 650,000 emails aren't Clinton's correct? It's the number they found on Weiner and Huma's computer, isn't it? Is the issue that some of those 650,000 were emails from Clinton she sent to Huma from her private email server?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

The 650,000 emails aren't Clinton's correct? It's the number they found on Weiner and Huma's computer, isn't it? Is the issue that some of those 650,000 were emails from Clinton she sent to Huma from her private email server?

I had read that Huma sent emails to her personal account so she could print them off for Hillary. That's why she had them at home. Which is another problem with email. You send to one person and that person can forward everything you sent anywhere.

Huma may be the stupidest person I've ever heard of.

Email is never secure. NEVER.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXIII: The Penultimate Thread

I had read that Huma sent emails to her personal account so she could print them off for Hillary. That's why she had them at home. Which is another problem with email. You send to one person and that person can forward everything you sent anywhere.

Huma may be the stupidest person I've ever heard of.

Email is never secure. NEVER.

Additionally my understanding is that a number of email programs, like older versions of Outlook for example, will cache all the emails from the server on a device itself for quick access. I believe we know Huma had access to Hilary's personal email. If that all is correct then there's some chance that Hillary's entire email contents are on Carlos Danger's machine.
 
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