What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Kepler said:
Jesus.

He also announced that in his first hundred days he'll term-limit Congress.

I must have missed that part of the Constitution.
Click to expand...

Will someone give this guy a 6th Grade Civics book...
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

To be fair, he did say it would be a constitutional amendment for term limits. Which, of course, he would need Congress to pass, so good luck with that. (Yes, I know they could also hold a convention, good luck getting that done.)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Good news, everyone.

I’d urge a little bit of caution here, given that swings in enthusiasm can be transient and can sometimes exaggerate the underlying change in voter sentiment. Our polls-only forecast has Clinton up by about 7 percentage points instead of by double digits — and our polls-plus forecast would still bet on the race tightening slightly.

But you can easily see how the worst-case scenario is firmly on the table for Trump and Republican down-ballot candidates, where the bottom falls out from GOP turnout. Consider:

+ Trump is getting only about 80 percent of the Republican vote, whereas candidates typically finish at about 90 percent of their party’s vote or above.

+ Furthermore, the Republicans missing from Trump’s column tend to be high-education, high-income voters, who typically also have a high propensity to vote.

+ Voters are increasingly convinced that Clinton will win the election, and turnout can be lower in lopsided elections. (Although, this presents risks to both candidates: complacency on the part of Democrats, despondency on the part of Republicans.)

+ Republicans and Trump have a substantial ground game deficit, with Clinton and Democrats holding a nearly 4-1 advantage in paid staffers.

+ Trump’s rhetoric that the election is rigged could discourage turnout among his own voters.

+ Trump’s base is relatively small, especially if he underperforms among college-educated Republicans.

The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that high-information Republican voters, seeing Trump imploding and not necessarily having been happy with him as their nominee in the first place, feel free to cast a protest vote at the top of the ticket. Meanwhile, lower-information Republican voters don’t turn out at all, given that Trump’s rigging rhetoric could suppress their vote and that Republicans don’t have the field operation to pull them back in. That’s how you could get a Clinton landslide like the one the ABC News poll describes, along with a Democratic Senate and possibly even — although it’s a reach — a Democratic House.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 24h24 hours ago
Final @Gallup second-term POTUS approval rating before election

• Reagan: 51%
• Clinton: 57
• Bush: 25
• Obama: 57

.....smooth move, Al Gore
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
No offense, but Nate's a little more credible than you. :p
Click to expand...

I dont disagree but when he comes to the same conclusion as me I will definitely give myself a nice pat on the back :D

Drumpf has played this entire election exactly how I said he would (as did a lot of people here as well as other places) including imploding right about the time of Debate 1. Hell the GOP fractured almost exactly how some of us said because they hate him so much. This version of the GOP is just not the rank and file it was under Reagan/Bush...the coalition is cracking and it is every man for himself. Problem is "The Future" all supported Drumpf so it is only going to get worse the next 4 years...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top