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Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

NowCast with D at 91% to hold the White House and 81% to take the Senate, and for the first time some distance is opening up with the mean at 52 Senate seats. GOP is whining they could lose 30 House seats but I assume that's a fundraising tactic -- I can see no way they lose more than 6-8 with the districts so f-cked up.

It would be great to pick up the House to prep for 2018 but far more important are the state houses and the new Democratic initiative to finally beat back the 20-year advantage of Republican PAC money that buys those seats. Apparently the DNC finally understands what Dean was talking about 10 years ago: the top of the ticket doesn't mean squat if you let the Kochs buy up the state legs and slam through all their bullsh-t.

With McCain et al finally coming clean about the GOP strategy on the Court I hope the Dems finally grow a pair and show the knucks what an actual liberal justice looks like. There are plenty of qualified justices who will clean up the Scalia sick. At least the Clintons won't be fooled the way Obama was.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
She claims to be religious, and sells her Parrothead-worthy clothing designs exclusively at Bealls, which is about half a step above Walmart in the pantheon of American department stores. So, color me not that surprised when it comes to her "Trumpiness".
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I think Floridians might take some small exception at your Bealls characterization, but nevertheless, she's actually quite well known and collected. For example, her portrait of Jimmy Carter hangs in his presidential library and a commissioned portrait of Richard Branson hangs in Virgin World Headquarters in London. Originals start around $7k but I've been to the gallery several times and they go way up from there. Her work isn't for everyone but everyone who sees it in person would agree she's very talented. I just posted it as some were talking about types who support Trump, and her gallery is almost overwhelmingly 60's Hippy vibe. In fact her Beatles portraits are probably some of her best known works. Takes all kinds I guess.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Senate prediction is now up to 53-47
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

French Rage said:
Melania says Trump was "egged on" by Billy Bush. http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/melania-trump-interview/index.html

So the guy who will stand up tough and do the best negotiations can get egged on by notorious mastermind Billy ****ing Bush.
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Quite the hard swing to the left by Trump to blame everything on a Bush. She also says she calls him a child, which will be on a Clinton campaign video ad tomorrow.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Kepler said:
NowCast with D at 91% to hold the White House and 81% to take the Senate, and for the first time some distance is opening up with the mean at 52 Senate seats. GOP is whining they could lose 30 House seats but I assume that's a fundraising tactic -- I can see no way they lose more than 6-8 with the districts so f-cked up.

It would be great to pick up the House to prep for 2018 but far more important are the state houses and the new Democratic initiative to finally beat back the 20-year advantage of Republican PAC money that buys those seats. Apparently the DNC finally understands what Dean was talking about 10 years ago: the top of the ticket doesn't mean squat if you let the Kochs buy up the state legs and slam through all their bullsh-t.

With McCain et al finally coming clean about the GOP strategy on the Court I hope the Dems finally grow a pair and show the knucks what an actual liberal justice looks like. There are plenty of qualified justices who will clean up the Scalia sick. At least the Clintons won't be fooled the way Obama was.
Click to expand...

The House GOP is definitely scared. It wouldnt surprise me if their internal numbers showed that kind of swing legitimately. Anyone who hasnt completely disowned Drumpf right now is at risk. The Dems have to be running ads every 10 minutes linking every incumbent GOPer with tDonald.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Handyman said:
The House GOP is definitely scared. It wouldnt surprise me if their internal numbers showed that kind of swing legitimately. Anyone who hasnt completely disowned Drumpf right now is at risk. The Dems have to be running ads every 10 minutes linking every incumbent GOPer with tDonald.
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It's like this in upstate NY, where Mike Derrick (D) is running ads attacking Elise Stefanik (R-incumbent) for this very reason. I see the same ad every cycle of commercials. Stefanik has put one out now attacking the Green Party candidate Matt Funnicello as well. :eek:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Handyman said:
The House GOP is definitely scared. It wouldnt surprise me if their internal numbers showed that kind of swing legitimately. Anyone who hasnt completely disowned Drumpf right now is at risk. The Dems have to be running ads every 10 minutes linking every incumbent GOPer with tDonald.
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Not sure what kind of heavy narcotics Kep is on if he thinks the GOP is only going to lose 6 or 8 House seats. They may drop 6 in CA alone.

But, to your correct point, the GOP is starting to throw big money into races that had previously been on nobody's radar. That means their internals are crap. I'd say they're looking at 25 seats at this point, with more to come if the Dem leaners keep coalescing behind Clinton. A party can't overcome a high single digit loss at the top of the ticket anymore. 1988 was another lifetime ago in politics.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

There's a chance that Minnesota loses a D, Rover. The Nolan-Mills race is going to be extremely close. I'm not entirely sure Angie Craig is going to pull it off against Jason Lewis either. I think she will, but it's tough to tell in that district.

ETA: Even Eric Paulson might hold his seat over his challenger.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

The trick with the House GOP is that the gerrymandering made a lot of 52-48 (R) with 70-30 (D)

If they lose their enthusiasm from Trump going stupid, they (and we) probably won't see it until it's too late. Of course, the (D) failed at filling nominees with competent people so it might not matter.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

dxmnkd316 said:
There's a chance that Minnesota loses a D, Rover. The Nolan-Mills race is going to be extremely close. I'm not entirely sure Angie Craig is going to pull it off against Jason Lewis either. I think she will, but it's tough to tell in that district.

ETA: Even Eric Paulson might hold his seat over his challenger.
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Individual races are what they are, but there is little chance the GOP can withstand a wipeout at the top of the ticket. Gerrymandering can only do so much for you, particularly in "blue" states (IL, NY, CA, VA, MN) where Trump is going to get absolutely crushed.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Rover said:
Not sure what kind of heavy narcotics Kep is on if he thinks the GOP is only going to lose 6 or 8 House seats. They may drop 6 in CA alone.
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There are only something like 18 competitive seats in the entire House.

Somebody made a good point below, though. The way a leg rigs its districts is by creating a lot of districts that are R+5 to R+10 and then loading all the "Democrats" (read: blacks) into districts that are D+30.

But what happens if your candidate loses by say 10 points over and above your district expectation?

The strategy creates a sort of continental shelf -- you're OK if you are only wading out 3 or 4 points, but if there's a strong undertow when seats start to go they go in huge blocks. This is what happened to the Dems when they lost 63 seats in 2010. It could theoretically happen with the Republicans, though they have one big advantage: their voters show up dependably. The big Dem loss was compounded by it being a midterm.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

dxmnkd316 said:
There's a chance that Minnesota loses a D, Rover. The Nolan-Mills race is going to be extremely close. I'm not entirely sure Angie Craig is going to pull it off against Jason Lewis either. I think she will, but it's tough to tell in that district.

ETA: Even Eric Paulson might hold his seat over his challenger.
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Paulson will hold his seat because Boniff sucks. I am voting for Paulson because he is as far from a Drumpfer as you can get in the GOP. Lewis is going to have issues cause he is flat out defending Drumpf. We wont know though until like 3-4 days before.

If the House GOP is now in full ignore mode (whichh the Speaker now is) then they know they are at serious risk. Hell the Ohio GOP confirmed it which is what set Drumpf off against them. The numbers are worse than Kep makes them out to be. We will see if it holds though...

I think what Kepler and some on the Left are ignoring is more than usual GOPers might stay home.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Handyman said:
If the House GOP is now in full ignore mode (with the Speaker now is) then they know they are at serious risk. Hell the Ohio GOP confirmed it which is what set Drumpf off against them. The numbers are worse than Kep makes them out to be.
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What choice do they have? Condemn Trump and lose the Deplorables; support Trump and lose the Sane. The GOP is split right down the middle. The best you can do is keep your head down and your mouth shut and pray that each side thinks you're on their side.

This is a classic vise grip. For once I don't actually blame the GOP officials (I mean other than letting this cancer get so far because it benefited them personally even as it was destroying the country). They got nowhere to go.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Kepler said:
What choice do they have? Condemn Trump and lose the Deplorables; support Trump and lose the Sane. The GOP is split right down the middle. The best you can do is keep your head down and your mouth shut and pray that each side thinks you're on their side.

This is a classic vise grip. For once I don't actually blame the GOP officials (I mean other than letting this cancer get so far because it benefited them personally even as it was destroying the country). They got nowhere to go.
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Well seeing as he has declared war on them they are losing by doing nothing as well. His people wont vote for them unless they stand with him.

As I said in my edit...I bet GOP voting is way down this year.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Handyman said:
The numbers are worse than Kep makes them out to be. We will see if it holds though...

I think what Kepler and some on the Left are ignoring is more than usual GOPers might stay home.
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I don't think they will. The right is remarkably disciplined about voting. They've made the connection that they can amplify their influence by showing up. The left still doesn't get that.

RCP is trying to do a House map. They have tended towards the conservative on polling -- they don't have any methodology other than declaring certain polls worthy and then counting them all equally.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XXII: Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Politicians!

Handyman said:
Well seeing as he has declared war on them they are losing by doing nothing as well. His people wont vote for them unless they stand with him.

As I said in my edit...I bet GOP voting is way down this year.
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Hey, a girl can dream! :)
I would like nothing more than for the GOP to self-destruct -- it would be fitting karma for all their predations of the last 3 decades. I just have trouble imagining we can have nice things.
 
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