Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable
Um. No.
Show me where it says the country can't make a
horrific mistake.
Bush already happened however. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice...
Ann Seltzer who's a very good pollster did a very good job explaining her Ohio results (which again Nate at 538 is using because what else is he supposed to do):
"Ann Selzer, the well-respected Iowa pollster who produced the survey, provided Bloomberg with a possible explanation for its divergent results: Voters who identified as Republicans were more likely to be classified as likely voters than those who said they identified as Democrats. Including those who lean toward one party, Republicans comprised about 43 percent of the sample, while Democrats made up roughly 36 percent.
“Our party breakdown differs from other polls, but resembles what happened in Ohio in 2004,” Selzer told Bloomberg, pointing to exit polling from 12 years ago when George W. Bush carried the state. “It is very difficult to say today who will and who will not show up to vote on Election Day. Our poll suggests more Republicans than Democrats would do that in an Ohio election held today.”
Democrats in the two most-recent elections have turned out to elect now-President Barack Obama. In the 2008 exit polls, Democrats made up 39 percent of the electorate, compared to 31 percent for Republicans. In 2012, it was 38 percent Democratic and 31 percent Republican.
According to the Bloomberg article accompanying the survey, larger shares of male and older voters passed through Selzer’s likely-voter screen, tilting the electorate toward Trump and the Republicans."
So I'm getting somewhat sick of explaining this to you but perhaps Handy isn't. Anyway, the post-Labor Day likely voter screens are capturing a disproportionate older white electorate who just so happen to be in Trump's sweet spot. This is not surprising as they are more likely to be engaged at this point in the election, while the younger and non-white voters come along closer to election day. No need to unskewer anything. The takeaway is simple. If only Trump supporters show up on election day he'll have a good night. Or, he'll be 50/50 to win. That's highly unlikely.
More seriously though you're really doing the bidding of the white power crowd even if its unintentional. The premise is that only those older, white working class people are the real Americans who care enough to vote, while everybody else is either indifferent (young voters) or lazy (minorities). I personally wouldn't want to be buying into that stereotype, but that's just me.
