WeAreNDHockey
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable
A perfect synopsis of how America is losing, even if Trump loses. America is like that one hot girl we all knew who always seemed to have jerks as boyfriends. Guys who would cheat on her, disrespect her or sometimes even hurt her. It would get so frustrating and at times we even wondered if at the end of the day that's what she was actually attracted to. At the end of the day, far too many of us are attracted to the bad boy. The bully. So Trump talks tough and a lot of us swoon. Trump is hardly the first politician to have figured this out. But he has done it better than the rest of the bunch. If more men in this country were actually secure in their own masculinity someone like Trump might not have been able to have the kind of success he's enjoyed on the campaign so far.
The most amazing -- and saddest -- thing to me is that Clinton's numbers appeared to wane when she gave what I thought was her most powerful speech of the campaign in Reno on August 25th. She forcefully linked Trump to all the racist supporters he was bringing out. She linked him to all the hateful rhetoric of the so called alt-right. She pointed out in the most powerful words yet how truly unqualified he is to be the commander-in-chief. On that day her odds on the 538.com polls+ forecast were almost as high as they'd been in the race, with the methodology giving her a 76% chance of victory. The now-cast number was 86%. Today those numbers are around 60% and 57% and 68 electoral votes in 4 very different states (OH, NC, FL and NV) have flipped from her to Trump.
Where is this vaunted Clinton machine we have heard so much about? Where is this beast that we were told would devour any news organization that insisted on smearing her, or this seasoned group of take-no-prisoners advisors who would turn every Trump misstep into an advantage, and turn every momentary setback into a plus? All I've seen is a candidate who appears lost. The incident on Sunday was probably the final misstep she could make and still hope to win.
If she wins, my guess is her map will look a lot like the now-cast map on 538 looks today, which by my glance amounts to about a 1 state margin of error. Along with that kind of a win comes little chance of taking the senate, something that a month ago seemed secure. And my guess is an election that close will leave at least one state looking just like Florida in 2000. Anyone here think if Trump is on the losing end of a state like that that would put him over the top he's going to accept the results gracefully? I didn't think so.
After the 2016 presidential election it ain't gonna be a political party doing a postmortem, it's going to be the entire nation. Because if a completely useless piece of 5h!t like Donald Trump can even get a sniff of a major party nomination, let alone extend the race all the way to the final weeks or days, we're all losers.
A perfect synopsis of how America is losing, even if Trump loses. America is like that one hot girl we all knew who always seemed to have jerks as boyfriends. Guys who would cheat on her, disrespect her or sometimes even hurt her. It would get so frustrating and at times we even wondered if at the end of the day that's what she was actually attracted to. At the end of the day, far too many of us are attracted to the bad boy. The bully. So Trump talks tough and a lot of us swoon. Trump is hardly the first politician to have figured this out. But he has done it better than the rest of the bunch. If more men in this country were actually secure in their own masculinity someone like Trump might not have been able to have the kind of success he's enjoyed on the campaign so far.
The most amazing -- and saddest -- thing to me is that Clinton's numbers appeared to wane when she gave what I thought was her most powerful speech of the campaign in Reno on August 25th. She forcefully linked Trump to all the racist supporters he was bringing out. She linked him to all the hateful rhetoric of the so called alt-right. She pointed out in the most powerful words yet how truly unqualified he is to be the commander-in-chief. On that day her odds on the 538.com polls+ forecast were almost as high as they'd been in the race, with the methodology giving her a 76% chance of victory. The now-cast number was 86%. Today those numbers are around 60% and 57% and 68 electoral votes in 4 very different states (OH, NC, FL and NV) have flipped from her to Trump.
Where is this vaunted Clinton machine we have heard so much about? Where is this beast that we were told would devour any news organization that insisted on smearing her, or this seasoned group of take-no-prisoners advisors who would turn every Trump misstep into an advantage, and turn every momentary setback into a plus? All I've seen is a candidate who appears lost. The incident on Sunday was probably the final misstep she could make and still hope to win.
If she wins, my guess is her map will look a lot like the now-cast map on 538 looks today, which by my glance amounts to about a 1 state margin of error. Along with that kind of a win comes little chance of taking the senate, something that a month ago seemed secure. And my guess is an election that close will leave at least one state looking just like Florida in 2000. Anyone here think if Trump is on the losing end of a state like that that would put him over the top he's going to accept the results gracefully? I didn't think so.
After the 2016 presidential election it ain't gonna be a political party doing a postmortem, it's going to be the entire nation. Because if a completely useless piece of 5h!t like Donald Trump can even get a sniff of a major party nomination, let alone extend the race all the way to the final weeks or days, we're all losers.
