Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes early

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up.

Ya know I would probably buy this story if it was the DNC making threats because DWS is definitely that stupid (though nothing physical) but even then there is zero chance Sanders doesnt go public. Other Democrats...sure but Bernie Sanders? He would have gone public 25 minutes after it happened.

It is obvious this is to play up on the "Murdering Clintons" meme which also should have been a clue...even if you believe they murdered a bunch of people they have never allowed the dots to be connected yet all of a sudden they do? Well isnt that convenient...just doesnt pass the smell test. And some email isnt going to be enough to substantiate it there is going to need to be hard proof or Assange is going to have a lot of egg on his face. (just like he does cause he cant find Drumpf's tax returns)

I dont know what Assange's endgame is but unless he starts going after Drumpf like he said he was going to he is taking steps to insure the election of the guy who is going to make everything Assange is fighting for even less possible.

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

If people were still good for their word you wouldn't need lawyers, paper, and ink. The only things I do without paperwork are things that are of a value that I'm willing to lose. Cynical? Yup.

Paper and ink? Less and less.

It does appear, however, that you better get a written agreement if you are dealing with tDon. His word, as we have consistently seen during this campaign, is not worth much.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

So the Wikileaks reveal is that apparently the Clinton Campaign threatened Sanders and his wife to get him to drop out. First of all I dont buy it, second of all why would they risk threatening him when he lost? Even better does anyone believe Sanders wouldnt have gone public about that stuff? Somebody is trolling Wikileaks...

Its either Kep or Scooby who "leaked" that info. Bet on it!

What odds will you give me though that the New York Times makes this a front page story?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Its either Kep or Scooby who "leaked" that info. Bet on it!

What odds will you give me though that the New York Times makes this a front page story?

I certainly wish I was that plugged in, but frankly I'm just a two-bit voter and not part of the punditry/ruling class.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

But your observation about control is true, and I've often thought it raises an interesting point with respect to guarantees such as our constitution provides. Power was once held by tribal leaders, then kings, to be accompanied at some point by the Church and eventually, nation states. Our constitutional protections are designed to protect us from the Church and the nation state. Since our constitution was ratified and emended, new bullies have shown up in the neighborhood: multinational corporations. They have immense power over our lives but are not subject to the protections the constitution gives us against the King/nation state. The language of older supreme court decisions addressing bill of rights issues could apply equally to the powers exercised by large corporate players whose actions affect every aspect of our lives.

The evolution of society has been an arms race between the few powerful and the many powerless. At first power was literal: the brute force cutting and smashing of our ape ancestors as expressed by the father, then the clan, and finally the chief, and we still see this in miniature on the schoolyard and the retreat into militarism and intolerance when threatened.

Then the power because judicial-religious -- as that brute force translated into symbology (god), then refined as code of law administered by the priest/judge, and finally assumed by justifying the monarch through Divine Right.

For a long time now we have been in the third age of power as wealth: first mercantile power, then, very briefly, decentralized power of small groups of free individuals, and then the gradual concentration of power into a feudal super rich.

Maybe we're moving to a fourth age of information (personally I doubt it), but it remains to be seen whether the current feudal overlords will simply dominate as completely by controlling information, or if new actors (not necessarily benign) can smash the wealth state and create a new power order.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Its either Kep or Scooby who "leaked" that info. Bet on it!

What odds will you give me though that the New York Times makes this a front page story?

I dunno...smells Russian to me. I mean Kep is a Commie Pinko but not that bad

NY Times will make it a story if Assange publishes it with any evidence. Right now this came up in an interview so he could backtrack. My guess is the information is he said/she said and it takes lots of inferring to get there.

And again, why would Sanders not go public? This isnt a Robert Ludlum novel and Sanders knows that.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

So the Wikileaks reveal is that apparently the Clinton Campaign threatened Sanders and his wife to get him to drop out.

C'mon. Not plausible. The Clintons don't threaten.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Beyond that though you bring up good points in that Dems need to show up, but haven't they been the last 6 Presidential elections?

2012, 2008: ObamaNation turned out in force for the nation's first black President (sorry Bill).
2004, 2000: Ds turned out to vote against another Bush.
1996: Bill inspired people in his first term and they came out.
1992: Ol' "Read My Lips" had people show up to vote against him.

So, where's that put Hillary? She's not inspiring people to come out (ala 2012, 2008, or 1996) unless Mr. Obama does a lot of work for her over the next fifty days. And folks won't come out "against" Trump like they will with an incumbent they dislike (ala 1992). Alternatively, Hillary is the meta-incumbent and folks will come out to vote against her.

Given all those factors, what I suspect it will be something like ... 2000. If* Trump wins it'll be in the Electoral College, but will probably be within 500k nationally in the popular vote.


*That's a great big all-caps, bold, underlined if.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I dunno...smells Russian to me. I mean Kep is a Commie Pinko but not that bad

Oh c'mon ... yes he is that bad.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

So the Wikileaks reveal is that apparently the Clinton Campaign threatened Sanders and his wife to get him to drop out. First of all I dont buy it, second of all why would they risk threatening him when he lost? Even better does anyone believe Sanders wouldnt have gone public about that stuff? Somebody is trolling Wikileaks...

The strange thing is this: http://yournewswire.com/putin-hacked-emails-reveal-that-clinton-threatened-sanders-wife/

That was a story from July which Wikileaks said was a badly botched Russian troll job with the same story.

As a fervent Bernie supporter I have no doubt that: (1) the DNC was in the tank for Clinton, (2) Bernie was repeatedly told there would be political repercussions for challenging Clinton, and (3) allegations of literal, hamfisted threats are nonsense concern trolling concocted and passed along by anti-Clinton and anti-Bernie actors.

(1) and (2) are the way the sausage gets made and have been true of every race down to town dog catcher since the earth was young.

(3) is simply too dumb a thing for the Adults to do. Put it this way: even Trump wouldn't be that obvious, and that is the lowest bar in national politics.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

2004, 2000: Ds turned out to vote against another Bush.

God. If only we had.

2004 is the textbook example of how it is more difficult to inspire people to vote against rather than for someone. Dubya in 2004 was arguably the most hated incumbent since Nixon and inarguably the worst failure in the White House since Harding, and we still couldn't get enough people off the couch.

It sounds impossible I know, but if this election is not an entirely new phenomenon a relatively small segment of the electorate -- people who are honestly inspired by these candidates -- will decide it.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

God. If only we had.

2004 is the textbook example of how it is more difficult to inspire people to vote against rather than for someone. Dubya in 2004 was arguably the most hated incumbent since Nixon and inarguably the worst failure in the White House since Harding, and we still couldn't get enough people off the couch.

It sounds impossible I know, but if this election is not an entirely new phenomenon a relatively small segment of the electorate -- people who are honestly inspired by these candidates -- will decide it.

And yet, somehow folks around here believe that Hillary is a lock. Cracks me up.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

And yet, somehow folks around here believe that Hillary is a lock. Cracks me up.

It looked very good 3 weeks ago, but now I don't think you can find anyone who thinks Hillary is a lock. This election will be anything between Hillary by 10 and Trump in a squeaker, but he still has something like a 1 in 5 or 6 chance.

In effect, the United States is playing one round of Russian Roulette.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

It looked very good 3 weeks ago, but now I don't think you can find anyone who thinks Hillary is a lock. This election will be anything between Hillary by 10 and Trump in a squeaker, but he still has something like a 1 in 5 or 6 chance.

In effect, the United States is playing one round of Russia Roulette.

Kerry vs. Bush

Hillary vs. Trump

Not much difference there. It's the kind of election the Republicans usually win.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

-- people who are honestly inspired by these candidates -- will decide it.

I agree, but inspiration can be positive or negative. And inspiration without action is nothing.

Now, allow me four unique and distinct categories of inspiration:
- Never Hillary
- Never Trump
- Pro Hillary
- Pro Trump

Please order those in pure size, number of participants in the group.
Now, please order those in likelihood of showing up (action) at the polls.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I agree, but inspiration can be positive or negative. And inspiration without action is nothing.

Now, allow me four unique and distinct categories of inspiration:
- Never Hillary
- Never Trump
- Pro Hillary
- Pro Trump

Please order those in pure size, number of participants in the group.
Now, please order those in likelihood of showing up (action) at the polls.

What I look at is the people NBC had on after the forum the other day. There was one guy who was the prototypical Trump voter. All of them were asked what they thought of the two candidates. His answer: Trump President. Hillary prison.

And there's A LOT OF those people. A lot.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

In effect, the United States is playing one round of Russian Roulette.

... with a chambered semi-auto Glock.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Trump/Pence with more compliments for arguably our greatest global enemy.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

I agree, but inspiration can be positive or negative. And inspiration without action is nothing.

Now, allow me four unique and distinct categories of inspiration:
- Never Hillary
- Never Trump
- Pro Hillary
- Pro Trump

Please order those in pure size, number of participants in the group.
Now, please order those in likelihood of showing up (action) at the polls.

First number size, second number likelihood

- Never Hillary 20% 40% -->8 R
- Never Trump 30% 40% --> 12 D
- Pro Hillary 10% 80% --> 8 D
- Pro Trump 10% 90% --> 9 R
- Standard D 15% 40% --> 6 D
- Standard R 15% 40% --> 6 R

Final totals: 26 D, 23 R: normalized with 10% other:

48% D
42% R
10% Other

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Trump/Pence with more compliments for arguably our greatest global enemy.

Ah, diplomacy ...