Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e
- On one hand, someone once said don't interrupt your opponent when they are making a mistake, and in the first half of August Trump was definitely doing that. So for awhile it made sense for Hillary to stay low, raise funds, and get the ground operations going (I hope) while Trump dug himself deeper.
- That said, you can't do that forever. What works for two weeks is less effective for an entire month, and is horrible strategy for 3 straight months.
- Additionally, a little offense against Trump goes a long way towards causing him to make mistakes. His early August meltdown didn't happen in a vacuum, it happened because the Dems came out swinging in the convention and largely because of the Khan speech. Yes he can say what in previous campaigns would be crippling stupid stuff on his own, but in this campaign it clearly has not been enough to finish him off. It feels, though, like the stuff that does cause damage comes in reaction to what Hillary or other Dems say. So Hillary doesn't necessary need to go into fifth gear, but a little offense goes a long way.
- On the other hand, though, as others have pointed out, August is a pretty dead time as a lot of people are finishing up their summer, so you won't get the biggest bang for your back. Perhaps saving the money and political ammo for after Labor Day is the most cost-effective way to do it.
- Placing a lot of emphasis on the debates can go both ways. Yes, it might be the best forum to point out that Hillary is a serious answer and Trump is inane bombast, but if people haven't gotten that message yet, will they really make that much of a difference? Don't get me wrong, it still makes sense to be well prepared, as to not give Trump a chance to climb back into people's minds as a serious answer, so don't sleep on them. But there's way too much that can (and will) happen in the last two months to have that be a majority of one's strategy.
Overall, August took us from what looked like it was becoming a dead heat to one where Hillary has a notable but not insurmountable lead. Granted it has tightened since mid-August, but there is always it seems a slight correction from the original bounce. But my point is, the strategy for August was a net gain, we shouldn't lose too much sleep over it. But now that is has done it's job, it's time for a new one for September and home stretch.