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Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
- Thread starter Kepler
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bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Last thing I read was that the Dems would have to go something like 46 for 46 in "competitive" or open seats to take the House.
Last thing I read was that the Dems would have to go something like 46 for 46 in "competitive" or open seats to take the House.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
I don't think it is quite that bad, but it would have to be a wave.
Of course the way the House used to operate national waves would actually push all seats partly across the swing, which is how insane things like a 63-seat pick up with ZERO losses happened. But we may not live in that world anymore.
I don't think it is quite that bad, but it would have to be a wave.
Of course the way the House used to operate national waves would actually push all seats partly across the swing, which is how insane things like a 63-seat pick up with ZERO losses happened. But we may not live in that world anymore.
Almington
Blood Boiling with Rage and Hate
That's the result of finer and finer voter and demographic detail has allowed with redistricting
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
It's primarily the result of decades of having the Courts (under all presidents) hold to the doctrine that gerrymandering for partisan advantage is out of scope for the judiciary and thus Constitutional.
Thus the only relief can come from state legislatures getting right with God (which happens, but REALLY rarely) or Congress passing guidelines to limit the ways in which a state leg can rig its districts (which is probably a very serious Constitutional can of worms, and which by definition the sitting Members are disincentified to do because they -- both red and blue -- have personally benefited from the cheating).
The next wave of amendments must protect democratic representation. Formally state that gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the bribery of public officials via campaign contributions are all unconstitutional. Save the voter; save the world.
It's primarily the result of decades of having the Courts (under all presidents) hold to the doctrine that gerrymandering for partisan advantage is out of scope for the judiciary and thus Constitutional.
Thus the only relief can come from state legislatures getting right with God (which happens, but REALLY rarely) or Congress passing guidelines to limit the ways in which a state leg can rig its districts (which is probably a very serious Constitutional can of worms, and which by definition the sitting Members are disincentified to do because they -- both red and blue -- have personally benefited from the cheating).
The next wave of amendments must protect democratic representation. Formally state that gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the bribery of public officials via campaign contributions are all unconstitutional. Save the voter; save the world.
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Wisko McBadgerton
Teaching you how to Bucky.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Me either. But a lot of health care related things are working that way, so it's pretty clear to me that there's not a proper mechanism in place to "drive down costs" as we were promised. If the exchanges were to be of help, 16 of the 23 that we spent a couple $billion setting up have gone under.
The other thing that's clear is in the example I gave of two couples making $40k and $64k that in my state, the second pays $2700 more in premiums. A gap that is going to continue to grow as premium costs rise faster than wages because the $40k earner's premiums are capped and the $64k earner's aren't. Plus, let's say this $600 drug is one that is needed bi-monthly. Lower income couple pays nothing more, (because pharma is giving it to them and jacking the cost to everyone else) but the other working class couple probably pays another $6K+ in out of pocket expenses, because what used to be $1000 max is now capped by law at $6500, so surprise! that's what it's gone to. So they're now paying $8,700 more in total (despite making about 15 bucks an hour, the proposed minimum wage) which is the same amount more that a couple making $200k has to pay, so it's not even a progressive tax. Plus it was sold to them as a $2500 reduction...
And yet people wonder why working class folks are angry.
Me either. But a lot of health care related things are working that way, so it's pretty clear to me that there's not a proper mechanism in place to "drive down costs" as we were promised. If the exchanges were to be of help, 16 of the 23 that we spent a couple $billion setting up have gone under.
The other thing that's clear is in the example I gave of two couples making $40k and $64k that in my state, the second pays $2700 more in premiums. A gap that is going to continue to grow as premium costs rise faster than wages because the $40k earner's premiums are capped and the $64k earner's aren't. Plus, let's say this $600 drug is one that is needed bi-monthly. Lower income couple pays nothing more, (because pharma is giving it to them and jacking the cost to everyone else) but the other working class couple probably pays another $6K+ in out of pocket expenses, because what used to be $1000 max is now capped by law at $6500, so surprise! that's what it's gone to. So they're now paying $8,700 more in total (despite making about 15 bucks an hour, the proposed minimum wage) which is the same amount more that a couple making $200k has to pay, so it's not even a progressive tax. Plus it was sold to them as a $2500 reduction...
And yet people wonder why working class folks are angry.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
In response, the Trump campaign put out a statement saying, in part "How can someone with so many unaddressed questions about her own truthiness serve the highest office in the land?"
You cannot make this stuff up.
In response, the Trump campaign put out a statement saying, in part "How can someone with so many unaddressed questions about her own truthiness serve the highest office in the land?"
You cannot make this stuff up.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Whoever wrote that gets an A+ and better get a hefty raise.
edit:
That should be on an ad by tonight and running in every swing state. That needs to be her message for the rest of the campaign.
Whoever wrote that gets an A+ and better get a hefty raise.
edit:
That should be on an ad by tonight and running in every swing state. That needs to be her message for the rest of the campaign.
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Slap Shot
I got nothing
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
I just listened to Trump try to explain his, "Clinton is a bigot" comment to Anderson Cooper. This man is an absolute embarrassment. I do not like Hillary Clinton. I really don't. But Trump is an abomination and an insult to a process that everyone in this country thought had already reached its lowest point in recent times. It is painful to watch this man speak and think people have absolutely sold their soul going to the mat for him. People have tried to explain his positives and how he resonates. I honestly cannot fathom the allure. You can tell me there are racists this, haters that, are there really that many racist imbeciles capable of identifying with this complete jackhole? I honestly don't know what to say, but in time someone is going to make a s**tload of money trying to explain it to the world. This has to, has to, has to be a secrt, "GOTCHA!". Otherwise I am completely at a loss.
I just listened to Trump try to explain his, "Clinton is a bigot" comment to Anderson Cooper. This man is an absolute embarrassment. I do not like Hillary Clinton. I really don't. But Trump is an abomination and an insult to a process that everyone in this country thought had already reached its lowest point in recent times. It is painful to watch this man speak and think people have absolutely sold their soul going to the mat for him. People have tried to explain his positives and how he resonates. I honestly cannot fathom the allure. You can tell me there are racists this, haters that, are there really that many racist imbeciles capable of identifying with this complete jackhole? I honestly don't know what to say, but in time someone is going to make a s**tload of money trying to explain it to the world. This has to, has to, has to be a secrt, "GOTCHA!". Otherwise I am completely at a loss.
aparch
Acetaminamerican
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Are we sure Aaron Sorkin isn't on the Clinton campaign payroll?
As I got near the end, all I could picture was two people off to the side of the stage listening: Rob Lowe fist pumping with a grin, and Richard Schiff sighing heavily, wiping his brow, and walking away.
Are we sure Aaron Sorkin isn't on the Clinton campaign payroll?
As I got near the end, all I could picture was two people off to the side of the stage listening: Rob Lowe fist pumping with a grin, and Richard Schiff sighing heavily, wiping his brow, and walking away.
WeAreNDHockey
\../ \../
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Especially when you consider that a poll just days earlier -- conducted for the site that Trump just poached for his latest campaign chief -- had Clinton up by 10. Polls should not swing that much without there being an easily identifiable reasons, say Hillary admitting that she was pimping for the women Bill was getting with.
Especially when you consider that a poll just days earlier -- conducted for the site that Trump just poached for his latest campaign chief -- had Clinton up by 10. Polls should not swing that much without there being an easily identifiable reasons, say Hillary admitting that she was pimping for the women Bill was getting with.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
I had to look at it. According to 538 the poll ran for 3 weeks (7/29- 8/19) and had 210 responses. They already dinged it (It gets about as much weight as my cell service) despite having an A- rating.
I had to look at it. According to 538 the poll ran for 3 weeks (7/29- 8/19) and had 210 responses. They already dinged it (It gets about as much weight as my cell service) despite having an A- rating.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
A couple of thoughts:
1) Hillary nailed it with her speech. Thing is I doubt that's the last of it. Tying him directly to racists and fringe lunatics is smart politics especially when you use his own words against him. Its only August. I'm sure there's a lot more where that came from.
2) Nervous nellies are almost as bad as knuckledraggers. Not sure how you people live with yourselves. Barring a miracle the GOP has already lost the Senate as the IL, WI, PA and NH seats are a done deal since Trump is losing each state by double digits. Beyond that there's no chance Burr, Rubio, McCain, Portman and whoever is running vs Bayh in IN all win their elections. I'd say if Trump loses the election by as much as he's down now Goopers drop 7 seats at a minimum. Frankly Dem senate recruitment has been pretty darn good.
A couple of thoughts:
1) Hillary nailed it with her speech. Thing is I doubt that's the last of it. Tying him directly to racists and fringe lunatics is smart politics especially when you use his own words against him. Its only August. I'm sure there's a lot more where that came from.
2) Nervous nellies are almost as bad as knuckledraggers. Not sure how you people live with yourselves. Barring a miracle the GOP has already lost the Senate as the IL, WI, PA and NH seats are a done deal since Trump is losing each state by double digits. Beyond that there's no chance Burr, Rubio, McCain, Portman and whoever is running vs Bayh in IN all win their elections. I'd say if Trump loses the election by as much as he's down now Goopers drop 7 seats at a minimum. Frankly Dem senate recruitment has been pretty darn good.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
His responses to Anderson's inquiry about the matter of the 1973 DOJ charges of housing discrimination clearly demonstrate that Trump has his own reality and recalls events that are contrary to factual history. He insisted his company did nothing wrong and "wasn't fined", ignoring that Trump Realty had to report all its housing vacancies in New York to the Urban League for several years and had to stop all discriminatory practices. When he violated the agreement, the DOJ (the NIXON DOJ!!) hauled him into court again.
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Stephen Colbert might have shed a tear of joy.
In all seriousness, the fact that Trump (and his supporters) can never address or even discredit any of the complaints lodged in that speech should tell you everything you've ever needed to know about him.
Stephen Colbert might have shed a tear of joy.
In all seriousness, the fact that Trump (and his supporters) can never address or even discredit any of the complaints lodged in that speech should tell you everything you've ever needed to know about him.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Portman and Rubio are doing fine (up 7.5 and 5.0 respectively)
Portman and Rubio are doing fine (up 7.5 and 5.0 respectively)
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Portman's doing fine. Rubio is in deep sh !t. Portman has enough goodwill built up to survive a Trump loss in his state provided he isn't blown out. Not to mention both he and his opponent are well known so that's a tougher race to move the dial. Rubio doesn't have any of that going for him and once the Dem primary is over next week left leaners will coalesce. His fate is tied to Trump's and I don't mean that in a good way.
Bottom line: Don't be like Scooby.
Portman's doing fine. Rubio is in deep sh !t. Portman has enough goodwill built up to survive a Trump loss in his state provided he isn't blown out. Not to mention both he and his opponent are well known so that's a tougher race to move the dial. Rubio doesn't have any of that going for him and once the Dem primary is over next week left leaners will coalesce. His fate is tied to Trump's and I don't mean that in a good way.
Bottom line: Don't be like Scooby.
WeAreNDHockey
\../ \../
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!
Right now it looks good for the Senate control to switch hands. But just barely I think. McCain, Rubio and Portman are all going to win. Bayh is going to win Indiana almost as certainly as Trump will win the state's presidential poll, and there is a 50/50 chance John Gregg wins the governor's race, all proving once again, Indiana voters are truly an odd bunch. My guess is the Democratic party comes out of the election with 52 votes in the Senate.
Sadly, it won't matter. Without a filibuster proof majority in one chamber and at least a simple majority in the other, no far-reaching legislation with a real impact is likely to become reality in the next few years. Obama blew all his political capital in both houses of Congress on one major piece of legislation, and it took a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and what, a near 80 seat majority in the house. And it cost the Democratic party pretty steeply.
And I still maintain he shot his wad on the wrong piece of legislation.
Right now it looks good for the Senate control to switch hands. But just barely I think. McCain, Rubio and Portman are all going to win. Bayh is going to win Indiana almost as certainly as Trump will win the state's presidential poll, and there is a 50/50 chance John Gregg wins the governor's race, all proving once again, Indiana voters are truly an odd bunch. My guess is the Democratic party comes out of the election with 52 votes in the Senate.
Sadly, it won't matter. Without a filibuster proof majority in one chamber and at least a simple majority in the other, no far-reaching legislation with a real impact is likely to become reality in the next few years. Obama blew all his political capital in both houses of Congress on one major piece of legislation, and it took a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and what, a near 80 seat majority in the house. And it cost the Democratic party pretty steeply.
And I still maintain he shot his wad on the wrong piece of legislation.
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