Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Adams is widely regarded as having amazing insight to business culture, which means he understands people and their hot buttons.

People in this case are voters. And about voters he's right: both candidates have moved into "playing on fears" mode. And it's moving the masses.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Adams is widely regarded as

So, "many are saying..."?

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

So, "many are saying..."?

Well played, Mauer.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Two letters to the editor in today's were aghast that anyone would possibly interpret what Donald Trump said the other night as, "go out and assassinate Hillary Clinton".

I guess I don't know what else an elude to 2nd Amendment remedies could mean.

Maybe a really smart person could explain it to me?

 

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

She was also the governor of a backwater state after being the mayor of a backwater town in that backwater state.

She threw her weight behind Paul Nehlen, who is not only as just-plain-stupid as she is but an avowed racist to boot. Which leads me to two questions:

1. What constituency is still paying attention to her? (And has money).

2. Wisconsin has a strong progressive tradition, a pretty well regarded public education system and such nice people. How do you explain Joe Mccarthy, Scott Walker, and Paul Nehlen?

Gopher fans need not respond.

 

[Jimjamesak]

She was also the governor of a backwater state after being the mayor of a backwater town in that backwater state.

In the defense of my home state, I would not categorize Alaska as a backwater. Oh we have issues but we're not exactly Mississippi or Alabama here. Wasilla is certainly a *hole though.

Palin was actually a somewhat decent Governor before the VP nod made her crazygonuts. She managed to get a decent oil tax passed (that immediately got scrapped after she left because the oil companies hated it) and actually increased a lot of eligibility for the Children's Health insurance program.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

You are wrong. That diagnosis comes from people who have had years of intimate contact with him, including the guy who wrote "The Art of the Deal" for him. In this case, it's on point: Trump isn't a Machiavelli. He isn't evil or crazy. He's morally deficient in a way doctors have been studying for a century.

Yeah I hear his interviews...until the guy gets a PHD in clinical psychology he can take his opinion and shove it. Some of you need to realize that evil does exist...people are bad sometimes. Playing everything off as a disease or mental condition is lazy and is insulting to those that actually have those conditions.

You can underestimate him all you want, but 40 years from now people will be mocking your arrogance (and by you I mean The Arrogant Wing of the Left not you personally) wondering how people could read the situation so wrong. History is fraught with this stuff as you know.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Trump is like 99% of older conservatives. For the billionth time, he won the nomination because he represents the base of the party.

So if he's nuts, so is the 40%+ of the country that reflexively votes Republican in Presidential elections. Or that's voting for him this time around. He's a salesman. People in sales tell you what you want to hear, assume no risk of their own, and have no problem selling you something you don't need. Sounds a lot like the Trump campaign.

Exactly. There is a reason why he ran as a Republican and not an Independent or back in the day as a Democrat when he was hobnobbing with them. The guy knows what it takes to get a what he wants and he knows how to fleece the masses to get it.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

She was also the governor of a backwater state after being the mayor of a backwater town in that backwater state.

You dont say...

Here is the point...before she was nominated how much had you ever heard her mentioned for anything? How well did you know Donald Drumpf previous to 2008? The situations dont compare.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I can't stand Trump, but he meant it as, "He allowed them to form by doing nothing to stop them". The problem is he doesn't phrase his intent in ways that doesn't come across as divisive or bat-s**t crazy. I don't think he actually wants knuckle-draggers to use their guns as opposed to the ballot box, but again he says stupid s**t and brings the ridicule upon himself.

I deal with contract disputes on a near daily basis and two simple concepts I try to make both sides understand is words have meaning, and absent other specific present definition words have the meaning that is most common. I have no idea what Trump is thinking because I have only his words and his actions to go on.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ounder-isis-over-anti-terror-strategy-n628096

Donald Trump on Wednesday night appeared to blame President Barack Obama for the global terror threat, erroneously accusing him of creating ISIS and saying the group "honors" him.

"In many respects, you know, they honor President Obama," Trump said at a rally in Florida. "He's the founder of ISIS. He's the founder of ISIS. He's the founder. He founded ISIS."

Trump continued: "I would say the co-founder would be crooked Hillary Clinton."

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wa...259267948?CID=playlist=480866&cid=sm_fb_mojoe

GOP congressman: Trump says what he means
Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., says that while Donald Trump wasn't calling for the assassination of Hillary Clinton, Trump does say what he means. Duffy says this election is far from over.

That makes no ****ing sense Congressman Duffy. Figures you're from Wisconsin.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Adams is widely regarded as having amazing insight to business culture, which means he understands people and their hot buttons.

People in this case are voters. And about voters he's right: both candidates have moved into "playing on fears" mode. And it's moving the masses.

I haven't read much of Scott Adams' political commentary, but the piece that you linked to could have been written by Flaggy. "You're all sheep."

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Yeah I hear his interviews...until the guy gets a PHD in clinical psychology he can take his opinion and shove it. Some of you need to realize that evil does exist...people are bad sometimes. Playing everything off as a disease or mental condition is lazy and is insulting to those that actually have those conditions.

You can underestimate him all you want, but 40 years from now people will be mocking your arrogance (and by you I mean The Arrogant Wing of the Left not you personally) wondering how people could read the situation so wrong. History is fraught with this stuff as you know.

If it's 40 years from now I'm not going to worry too much about it...

Even though we are coming at this differently we both agree this guy should be kept as far away from the presidency as humanly possible.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

If it's 40 years from now I'm not going to worry too much about it...

Even though we are coming at this differently we both agree this guy should be kept as far away from the presidency as humanly possible.

I still say there's an argument to be made for him being the President. I cite the Brexit vote in England as a good example why.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I haven't read much of Scott Adams' political commentary, but the piece that you linked to could have been written by Flaggy. "You're all sheep."

He seems to be one of the countless number of Matt Welch / Reason Magazine "coders and engineers should decide all matters of public policy" people who have constructed a sealed, internally-consistent worldview in which they happen to be qualified to run the world. See also: every other insulated, parochial tribe that ever came down the pike. They mistake the salary they can command on the job market with the value of their economic and political opinions, which are dismally determined by their biographies.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

I still say there's an argument to be made for him being the President. I cite the Brexit vote in England as a good example why.

I don't know what you mean. An argument that he could win? Yes, of course he could win -- people are angry. An argument that he ought to win? No. Nobody hates the neoliberal world order more than I, but my solution isn't to throw cherry bombs into our institutions and dance in the rubble.

Brexitism and Trumpism are forms of affluenza. Western whites think we're entitled to prosperity as a normal baseline condition so if we don't have it then something's blocking the pipe and the solution is Drano. But that's not true -- getting to and maintaining prosperity is complicated, especially in a world where we can no longer impoverish 90% of the human race to further feed our fat faces. Prosperity is counterentropic, and throwing around dynamite only increases entropy.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Wow. Is this really the Time cover?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

One not so great sign: the RCP no tossups for the Senate has now pulled in to 50-50. Of course, if Trump really does drive R turnout down (or D turnout up) we might get a wave, but it doesn't look like the isolated race effects are doing us any favors.

RCP hasn't even bothered putting a House map up yet, and I have read nothing suggesting either side expects more than a slight 5-10 seat swing to D. The districts have just been firewalled too well by both sides. D Reps outvoted R Reps by 1M last time and are still well in the minority, and I have read D would need something like a 6M majority just to break even given the gerrymandering.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

One not so great sign: the RCP no tossups for the Senate has now pulled in to 50-50. Of course, if Trump really does drive R turnout down (or D turnout up) we might get a wave, but it doesn't look like the isolated race effects are doing us any favors.

RCP hasn't even bothered putting a House map up yet, and I have read nothing suggesting either side expects more than a slight 5-10 seat swing to D. The districts have just been firewalled too well by both sides. D Reps outvoted R Reps by 1M last time and are still well in the minority, and I have read D would need something like a 6M majority just to break even given the gerrymandering.

RCP does a fair enough job but they tend to include the ridiculous Quinnipiac polls that swing and miss more than Flaggy when he played Little League baseball.

So, put aside pundits and listen to Rover. Kirk-Johnson-Ayotte-Toomey are done. They need to start looking for another job, effective Jan 2017, now. None of those 1st term Senators can survive even a low single digit loss by Trump in their state. He's closing in on double digits in all of them. Its also doubtful Rubio survives although he's the beneficiary of a weaker challenger who's still dealing with bitter primary fight with a lunatic so more to come on that. Right now he's no better than 50/50 and again needs Trump to win or lose with a point or so to keep that seat as well as his challenger to flame out.

We'll see about Indiana but Bayh has 10M bucks to spend on that race in the next 3 months vs a little known opponent.

I'd also say McCain is 50/50 at this point. He has no friends left. Too much butt kissing of the hard right for crossover Dem votes, and the Trumpsters can't stand him. Even if Trump eeks out a win, he might go down if Trump voters don't support him as well.

Portman I believe will outrun Trump in Ohio. He can survive a Romney type loss. Any more than that and I think he's screwed despite doing everything right so far.

Beyond that, NV (Reid's seat) and NC (Burr) I'd expect to default to whoever wins each state. Trump is running a little better in NV but a little worse in NC than you'd expect.

So to sum up you've got at least 4 GOP seats flipping. 50/50 on 3 more at this point and a slight party advantage in 3 more states (NV, OH, NC) that's going to depend a lot on the Hillary-Trump vote. Of all of these, 9 are held by Republicans and 1 by Dems.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

He seems to be one of the countless number of Matt Welch / Reason Magazine "coders and engineers should decide all matters of public policy" people who have constructed a sealed, internally-consistent worldview in which they happen to be qualified to run the world. See also: every other insulated, parochial tribe that ever came down the pike. They mistake the salary they can command on the job market with the value of their economic and political opinions, which are dismally determined by their biographies.

And you know what? We are right.

Nice to see Kep lumps "coders and engineers" along with the South as groups he's inherently bigoted against. Or is he admitting he, too, is part of just another "insulated, parochial tribe that ... came down the pike".